Our Houston Open DFS picks take us to the Lone Star State as we continue our PGA DFS series. This week’s event is set at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas, featuring top players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. The field will be tested on one of the PGA Tour’s tougher layouts. Let’s dive into my DFS picks and core plays for the Houston Open.
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Course Preview
Memorial Park Golf Course is a Par 70, stretching nearly 7,500 yards. This marks the fifth consecutive year the PGA Tour returns to Memorial Park following its 2019 renovations. Over the past four editions, the average winning score has been below 13 under par, reinforcing its reputation as one of the tour’s tougher tests. The course features 10 par-4s, with half measuring over 490 yards, and players will also have to contend with strong winds and potential rain on Thursday and Friday.
Given these conditions, I’ll be prioritizing Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Ball Striking, Birdie or Better Percentage from 200+ yards and SG: Total Under Difficult Scoring Conditions.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve identified the top plays for this week. Our hole-by-hole simulations assess each golfer’s potential outcome alongside PGA DFS projections. By running tens of thousands of lineup simulations, we can pinpoint the best plays, focusing on those that appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups. The Sims Tool is a key part of my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to elevate their DFS game.
Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings
PGA DFS Picks: Houston Open DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks: Houston Open DFS Picks & Core Plays: Aaron Rai – $9,800
Aaron Rai has a strong track record at Memorial Park Golf Course, finishing T-19 and posting back-to-back T-7 finishes in his last three appearances. He also ranks near the top of this field in True Strokes Gained (+2.06) at this course.
While he lacks elite driving distance, his accuracy is exceptional, ranking 5th in that category and 2nd overall in Good Drive Percentage this season. He also excels in key scoring metrics, ranking 5th in SG: Total under Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds), 6th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and 10th in SG: Approach over his last 40 rounds.
With Stokastic’s ownership projections listing him for sub-10% ownership, Rai presents a strong leverage opportunity, making him an appealing target given his course history and current form.
Si Woo Kim – $8,900
Si Woo Kim stands out as a player well-equipped to handle the demanding Par-4s on this course.
He leads the field in Birdie or Better Percentage from 200+ yards this season and ranks 10th in SG: Total under Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds). Additionally, he sits 7th in SG: Tee to Green and 10th in SG: Total over his last 40 rounds.
Stokastic’s optimal percentages place him 3rd at 13.8%, trailing only Scheffler and McIlroy in projected optimal lineup appearances. With ownership expected to be under 10%, Kim presents a strong DFS opportunity. He hasn’t finished outside the Top-38 in his last five appearances either.
This course sets up well for him, and I’m excited to see how he performs across our lineups.
PGA DFS Picks; Houston Open DFS Core Plays: Nicolai Hojgaard – $7,400
If we’re targeting driving distance, Nicolai Hojgaard is a player worth considering. He ranks 22nd in driving distance among this field over the last 40 rounds. More impressively, he’s 3rd on tour this season in Birdie or Better Percentage from 200+ yards, 15th in Ball Striking, and 24th in Bogey Avoidance.
While he’s missed the cut in his last two events (The Players and Valspar), this course layout could be a good fit for his skill set. Hojgaard is 17th in SG: Approach over his last 40 rounds among these contenders. If he can manage his putting, which we’ve seen him do effectively in the past, his other strengths could put him in contention this weekend.
GPP Flier: Isaiah Salinda – $7,000
With an Optimal Percentage of 8.8% and a Leverage mark of 4%, Isaiah Salinda makes a compelling case as a dark horse this week.
Over his last 40 rounds, he ranks 31st or better in Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, SG: Tee to Green, and SG: Off the Tee among this field. He played this event once in 2021, finishing T-50 with a slight positive True SG mark of +0.05.
Salinda has teed it up in seven events this year, missing the cut in his first two but finishing 45th or better in the other five. That stretch includes a 3rd-place finish at the Mexico Open.
Let’s see if our long shot can deliver, much like our selection last week, Nico Echavarria, who was T-1 entering the final round.
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