Thursday Night Football has a 38.5 projected total, with the Jets getting a 6.0-point home field advantage against the incredibly young New England Patriots. This adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Patriots-Jets showdown for Week 3 Thursday Night Football, evaluating NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Patriots-Jets DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 3 NFL DFS
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With comprehensive coverage of Thursday night’s Patriots-Jets Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategy for this exciting slate.
Patriots-Jets DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.31
FanDuel: 17.54
Through two weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson has played on 78% and 72% of the offensive snaps. Backup Antonio Gibson has gotten on the field for most of the other opportunities, with a 22% and 24% snap share in these games. Last Sunday, JaMychal Hasty saw his first offensive action in the overtime game, stepping on the field for three plays.
Even including the bonus football, New England has had only 65 and 68 offensive plays this year. That could conceivably slide lower tonight with the Jets happy to drag things out on offense, as they have just 51 and 57 plays.
This information is all to set the stage so we can see that Stevenson should be on the field for around three-quarters of the offensive action, which supports him being assigned the second-highest salary on the main DFS sites. Looking at the first two weeks of the season, it has been Stevenson with eight targets, while Gibson had his first on Sunday. The former Washington Commander was efficient in the last tilt, with 96 yards on 11 carries, turning his inaugural target into a 7-yard catch.
For his part, Stevenson has been carrying the load with 25 totes for 120 yards and a score in Cincinnati, and he had another 21 rushing attempts for 81 yards and a score in the nailbiter against Seattle. He has three and five targets in these games, which again has him dominating the offensive opportunities for the backfield with 71% of the carries and 89% of the targets.
There is a good possibility that Stevenson could actually pay off his lofty salary, even without a touchdown, if this plays out as a low-scoring game. That is crazy to think about but also representative of his current workload. This, of course, could invite injury in one of the most brutal positions in this dangerous sport. Still, any player could get hurt on their first play, rendering that additional concern mostly moot — even though it is real.
New England Patriots Positional Preview
Quarterback | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Jacoby Brissett has been far from sexy, but he nearly had his team sitting at 2-0. The expectation is that rookie Drake Maye will probably be under center at some point after the Week 4 battle in San Francisco. If Brissett somehow remains upright for the next fortnight, despite facing two fierce defenses, head coach Jerod Mayo could elect to bring Maye in for select series as he begins his NFL career.
Tonight will mark the 51st NFL start for Brissett, who is a competent caretaker. Sadly, there is not really much to the New England offense, with a pair of rookie wideouts and the four “veterans” on the roster having 384 combined NFL targets.
Brissett at least has a pair of experienced tight ends, but it is hard to see the veteran attempting more than 30 passes, with only 24 and 27 in the first two games. Brissett has nine carries for 38 rushing yards, one aerial score and no interceptions.
Wide Receiver | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
KJ Osborn has 255 of the 384 career targets for the wideouts, leading this motley crew with six in Week 1 and getting two of the five looks for this position in Week 2. Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk was the only other receiver to get any opportunities against the Seahawks, converting on two targets for 12 yards and a touchdown.
Demario Douglas had a pair of receptions for a dozen yards in the opener, while Tyquan Thornton also had two for 27 yards. Neither was on the stat sheet in Week 2, though that should change tonight.
The Stokastic projections have the New England wideouts earmarked for 13.8 targets, 8.2 receptions and 100.5 receiving yards, with a 53% chance of someone finding the end zone. Douglas and Osborn are the most likely to see the “volume” with Polk at least getting on the field a lot as a rookie.
Polk has an $8,000 to $7,500 salary premium compared to his two “elders” on the blue site, though on DraftKings, things are even tighter with Douglas ($4,200) having a slight edge over Polk ($4,000) and position target leader Osborn ($3,200) getting the distinct discount.
Tight End | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are each in their ninth NFL season, with both being proven pass-catchers. Henry had a lofty 12 targets in the last game, converting eight for 109 yards. In the opener, Hooper had four targets and Henry saw three, but that dipped to just one on Sunday as Brissett was locked in on Henry.
Hooper is $5,400 less than Henry on DraftKings at $2,400 while also being below the three most targeted wideouts. Henry is likely to get the volume, though anything more than half a dozen looks would be an exceptional game.
Kicker | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Joey Slye has been in the league for five seasons, with New England being his fifth franchise after he spent the last two years with the Commanders. The 28-year-old is league average with standard range. Of course, if this game plays out along the lines of the projected points and flow, three field goals could easily land either kicker in the optimal DFS lineup.
Defense | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
The Patriots have recovered two fumbles but are looking for their first interception of the season. The heavy ground game of the Jets tends to limit turnovers, and their veteran quarterback is still good at avoiding sacks.
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Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3: Breece Hall
Breece Hall
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.71
FanDuel: 17.54
Breece Hall is going to be wildly popular tonight, even with the highest salary across the main DFS sites. Through two games, he has 116 rushing yards and another 91 through the air. In the opener he rushed for a score, and in the second game he hauled one in from Aaron Rodgers.
Backup Braelon Allen saw his snaps increase from nine to 20, and the youngest player in the league caught a touchdown from the oldest player in the league while also rushing for 33 yards and another score.
Expect something along the lines of a 70/30 snap share, with Hall getting the majority of the work. Allen showed he can score from 20-plus yards and give the Jets another terrific option to lean on as Rodgers gets closer to full health.
New York Jets Positional Preview
Quarterback | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Aaron Rodgers is the oldest player in the league right now, edging out fellow 40-year-old and former Green Bay teammate Marcedes Lewis by five months. The future Hall of Famer and four-time NFL MVP is well beyond his prime, plus he is coming off a major injury with his ruptured Achilles. This is also the third game in 11 days, as New York lost on Monday Night Football in San Francisco, 32-19, then got the equalizer on Sunday in Nashville 24-17.
The team gets a long week with the next game being on Sept. 29 against Denver, then the Jets are travelling to England to face the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 6. That is a hectic schedule, though also par for the course as the NFL continues to expand a global footprint.
For tonight, Rodgers does have the second-highest median fantasy point projection on FanDuel, but he slides to fourth on DraftKings, where the full-PPR scoring shuffles the deck. Do not expect anything on the ground, as prior to his injury, Rodgers had just one rushing touchdown in his final season with the Packers, despite playing in 17 games.
The Jets are happy to slow down the game, which is also a Rodgers specialty. That, along with a deliberate New England offense, should have the clock spinning, which will limit the number of plays and likely the overall fantasy goodness.
If Rodgers can throw for a pair of touchdowns, he should be close to being in the optimal DFS lineup unless they go to the same receiver.
Wide Receiver | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Garrett Wilson is the best receiver that has played with Rodgers since Davante Adams. The third-year phenom was on the field for 96% of the snaps in each of the first two games, getting 17 total targets from Rodgers for 10 receptions and 100 yards. There should be touchdowns soon enough, as Wilson is far too talented to be held out of the end zone now that he has a competent quarterback calling the shots.
Allen Lazard was brought over from the Packers last season at Rodgers’ behest. In the opener he had nine looks, though that fell to four in Week 2. He should see a handful of looks each week from his buddy, at least until Mike Williams is back to full health.
Williams saw his first target last week while ramping up his play participation from nine to 37 snaps. Xavier Gipson saw his first target as well in that game, but his snaps fell from 30 to six. Rookie Malachi Corley is basically frozen out at the moment, as he has one snap in each of the last two games. He did get his first career target in Week 2, converting on a 4-yard dump-off.
Tight End | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Tyler Conklin had a pair of targets in each of the first two games. That should increase, considering he has been on the field for 99 of the 108 plays this season. Jeremy Ruckert has played on 17 and 21 snaps, with no opportunities in the opener but three last week.
We know that Rodgers leans on this position in the red zone, which has this duo live for a lucky lottery ticket. Anthony Firkser was on the field for one play in the first game, while Brenden Bates had four plays in the second.
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Kicker | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Greg Zuerlein is perfect this season with one field goal from 39 yards out and making all four point after touchdown attempts. That is some seriously low volume, though much like Slye, a multi-field goal game could have him knocking on the door of the optimal lineup. “Greg the Leg” is no longer in the league, with Zuerlein converting on just 16 of 31 (52%) from beyond 50 yards since the start of the 2020 season.
Defense | Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Surprisingly, for being a “good” defense, New York is marginal against the run and does not blitz very often. That makes things tough to project them for much fantasy goodness, but being at home against a limited offense could lead to a fortuitous splash play.
Patriots-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Patriots-Jets
- Breece Hall: Captain, my Captain!
- Garrett Wilson: Easily could be the top fantasy scorer.
- Rhamondre Stevenson: This doesn’t feel great, though the numbers bear out.
- Braelen Allen: Particularly desirable on DraftKings ($5,200), where he can be a contributor, even without mop-up duty.
- Hunter Henry: Seems to have the eye of his quarterback.
- Aaron Rodgers: Meh, but an appropriate ranking.
- Jacoby Brissett: Does have a hint of rushing upside that could balance out his low passing yardage projection.
- Tyler Conklin: Salary saver with red zone equity.
- Allen Lazard: It is all about connections.
- Joey Slye: Better leg than “The Leg,” which is humorous.
Secondary Options
- Greg Zuerlein: Volume and distance suspect, though that may not matter at all tonight.
- New York D/ST: Just waiting to hear “J-E-T-S, jets, Jets, JETS!” cheer tonight.
- Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas and K.J. Osborn: Let salary constraints and personal preference be your guide.
Lottery Tickets
- Antonio Gibson: Just misses out on the above section; should be returning kickoffs.
- Mike Williams: Really needs a touchdown at his salary since volume is unlikely without another pass-catcher suffering an in-game injury.
- New England D/ST: Hard to see much fantasy goodness against the conservative New York offense.
- Austin Hooper and Jeremy Rucker: TE2s on their teams but better than the average backup at this position.
- Tyquan Thornton: At least in the rotation.
- Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley: Well down the pecking order in a low-volume attack. Gipson returns punts and kickoffs.
- JaMychal Hasty and Javon Baker: Should see the field on offense; opportunities are another story.
- Isaiah Davis, Jaheim Bell, Brenden Bates and Irvin Charles: Better luck next time.
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