Saturday Night Football brings the largest spread of the weekend with the Green Bay Packers heading to San Francisco to face the 49ers as near double-digit underdogs. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Packers-49ers NFL DFS picks for the Saturday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Saturday Night slate, so check out these Packers-49ers DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Packers-49ers DFS Picks
Green Bay Packers: 20.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jordan Love ranked seventh of the eight starting quarterbacks for the Divisional Round on both DraftKings and FanDuel, slotting ahead of only rookie C.J. Stroud. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-50s and rain, but that shouldn’t overly impact the game beyond making the ball slicker for the skill position players. Remember, most players wear gloves, and the referees will do what they can to keep the ball dry.
Love has a bevy of pass-catchers and has recorded multiple passing scores in nine of his last 10 games. That isn’t too shabby for a player that some in the DFS world were calling the worst quarterback in the league for the first few weeks of the season. Of course, this came before one-third of the starters got hurt and the truly awful options came into regular prominence.
The yardage is not impressive, but the touchdown rate is good. Even more interesting is that Love has thrown touchdowns to six receivers, three tight ends and one running back. Clearly he is adept at taking what the defense allows.
San Francisco has the fourth-ranked passing DVOA, but while they have ceded multiple passing touchdowns in three of the last five games, only Drew Lock (269) and Lamar Jackson (252) threw for more than 215 yards against them. Love does have a bit of rushing upside, but he doesn’t seek it out and rarely gets designed runs. That could be a wrinkle head coach Matt LaFleur mixes in tonight, and Love has four rushing scores this year.
Running Back
The goods thing about Aaron Jones this week are that he is healthy and has consolidated the majority of the backfield workload. AJ Dillon is dealing with neck and thumb issues, which have kept him out the last two weeks. In the last four games, he has between 20 and 22 carries, with each game resulting in 111 or more yards. Before his three touchdowns against Dallas, the seven-year veteran had just one rushing touchdown in the 10 preceding games.
Emanuel Wilson had eight carries for 20 yards, while Patrick Taylor had three for six. If Dillon is active, neither of these players is particularly enticing, other than as a desperation discount dart throw. If Dillon is out again, the duo will likely split another 10 or so opportunities, though things could easily edge back towards Taylor.
Wide Receivers
Jayden Reed is definitely the WR1, but with everyone healthy last week, he ended up with just three targets and no receptions. Romeo Doubs had the connection with Love, catching all six of his targets for 151 yards and a score. Dontayvion Wicks had two targets for 25 yards and a touchdown, which was his fourth in the last three games. Clearly Lady Luck has been on his side — those were his first end zone trips since Week 2.
Christian Watson does not have an injury designation at this time, but he has been dealing with a hamstring issue all season. Last week he brought in his lone target for nine yards and that was his first action since Week 13. Malik Heath was the odd man out, but Bo Melton was on the field for 22 snaps, getting one less offensive play than Watson. Melton is the most likely to lose out to Watson regaining his health.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft was on the field for 90% and 80% of the snaps the last two games, with fellow rookie Luke Musgrave getting 15% and 27% as he continues to work his way back from a six-week layoff. Each had three targets last week and they are competing for the same looks. Yes, both could get lucky with a touchdown, but it seems like gamers would be better off just going with one per roster, unless crafting 25 or more entries
Defense/Special Teams
Even with his four-interception, two-sack game against the Baltimore Ravens, who led the league in quarterback takedowns and takeaways, Brock Purdy recorded solid 2.5% interception and 5.9% sack rates this regular season. Green Bay averaged 2.6 sacks per game and just over one takeaway. The Packers were quite effective last weekend with four sacks in Dallas. They finished the regular season with five against Chicago in a must-win game and recorded four in Week 17 against the Vikings on the road.
San Francisco 49ers: 30.0 Points
Quarterback
In less than two calendar years, Brock Purdy went from the ignominious moniker of Mr. Irrelevant (for being the final selection in the 2022 NFL Draft) to a legitimate NFL MVP frontrunner, even holding the best odds in December. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is not built for quarterbacks to put up gaudy passing numbers, but instead for them to work as an extension of the running game by executing short and controlled passes. Of course, when the right quarterback is under center, it can lead to some spectacularly efficient statistics.
This year, Purdy led the league with a 7% touchdown rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, 13.9 yards per completion, a 113.0 passer rating and a 72.7 QBR. He had 31 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Four of those picks came against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, when the 24-year-old field general also suffered a stinger. There is no shame in having a poor outing against the Ravens, as they led the league in multiple defensive categories, including the fewest points allowed, most sacks generated and most turnovers forced.
The embarrassment of riches at the skill positions is just ridiculous for San Francisco, and it makes Purdy’s job much easier. This year, his tight end became a five-time Pro Bowl nominee, while earning his second All-Pro designation, to go with his two NFL Second-Team awards. His running back was also named to a fifth-career Pro Bowl and a second All-Pro designation after leading the league in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, touches and touchdowns.
If not for injuries, he likely would have seen both of his top wideouts getting Pro Bowl honors as well, instead of just one. The only knock against Purdy is that he does not do much on the ground, but he can scamper when needed, and he does have a pair of rushing touchdowns.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey was held out of Week 18 along with most of San Francisco’s key players. He then had the bye week to help him get over the calf injury he picked up in Week 17. Green Bay has hemorrhaged yards and touchdowns against opposing running backs, particularly dual-threat options. McCaffrey is one of the best-ever at the position and is still in his prime — although a decline looms.
Other than health, which is a risk for all players, the only real worry with McCaffrey is that his teammates collect all the touchdowns and put up a sizeable lead before he can get his 20 full-PPR points needed to break even on his lofty salary. CMC is the most expensive player on the board, leading the DraftKings list by $1,800, while on FanDuel he costs a hefty $2,500. The crazy thing is that both of these salary cap hits are appropriate.
Elijah Mitchell should see six to eight touches with the potential to double that if the 49ers are in control by a couple of scores in the final frame. His baseline projection is for around 35 yards with a one-in-three probability of seeing a target in a close game. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has only five carries on the season, with the last two occurring in Week 8. He had seven total targets in the three most recent meaningful games, resulting in six receptions for 54 yards.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk had an outstanding season, and even though he missed a game, he was still named to the All-Pro second team. He had a personal best 1,342 yards, including seven outings with at least 100. The $800 savings on DraftKings and $1,000 discount on FanDuel have him in a tie with Deebo Samuel.
Samuel was outstanding this year as well, but he did miss two games. He still ended up with his second-best receiving season, including a personal best of seven touchdowns. He also continued to contribute out of the backfield, with 37 carries for 225 yards and five more scores. In the last six games, he had eight touchdowns, including three multi-touchdown efforts.
Jauan Jennings rounds out the wide receiver corps. He is an adequate fantasy point-per-dollar play on the main DFS sites. It’s hard to envision him earning more than two or three targets, but 30-40 yards and a couple of receptions is still a valuable fantasy performance with so much of the San Francisco offense concentrated at the top.
Tight End
George Kittle is the wild card. He is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league and is a crucial part of San Francisco’s running strategy. He can also break a slate and he has five different games with at least 22 fantasy points in the full-PPR scoring format. On the flip side, he has seven single-digit fantasy outings, so there is both a lot of risk and reward potential.
Charlie Woerner had three targets this season, including one in Week 18. Ross Dwelley had two, with his most recent one coming back in Week 7. Brayden Willis took over for Dwelley in Week 14, but he was on the field for just 21 offensive plays before Week 18.
Defense/Special Teams
The 49ers allowed just 17.5 points per game, which trailed only the Ravens (16.5). Their 48 sacks ranked the seventh-most in the league, and their 28 total takeaways ranked third. Green Bay has ceded only two sacks during the last four tilts, with Love suffering only two interceptions.
Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Packers-49ers NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-49ers
- Christian McCaffrey: Of course he is the top option and there is still a chance at “profit” on his lofty salary.
- Brock Purdy: Consolidates all the passing action, but he needs a multi-touchdown performance and 250 yards to justify this ranking.
- Jordan Love: Expect a couple of scrambles today and north of 35 pass attempts if the game plays out in accordance with the spread.
- Aaron Jones: The defense will be keying on him, but he also can contribute as a receiver, particularly if he is covered by a slower linebacker.
- Brandon Aiyuk: A slight discount over Samuel gives him the edge.
- Deebo Samuel: This ranking just shows how top-heavy the offenses are in this matchup.
- George Kittle: Not for the faint of heart, but he can be used in “cash” games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.).
- Jayden Reed: Trust the process. He also returns punts on occasion.
- Jake Moody: Rookie who led the league in PATs and total attempts (60 of 61). Missed four field goals, from 40-49 yards and one from 50-plus.
- San Francisco D/ST: Love has limited sacks and turnovers, but the weather and pressure are up another notch this week.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-49ers
- Dontayvion Wicks: Salary discount compared to Doubs and we need it.
- Romeo Doubs: Could easily leave his backers holding an empty bag.
- Eli Mitchell: We are scraping for value, but there is a potential path to double-digit fantasy points.
- Christian Watson: The most terrifying option, could be a steal if he has an outing reminiscent of last season — or he could dud hard.
- Tucker Kraft: Cheaper than Musgrave and on the field more, but that doesn’t guarantee extra looks.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-49ers
- Luke Musgrave: Had he never been hurt, he probably would be just ahead of Wicks in these rankings. There are just so many options for Love and this is an unforgiving defense.
- Anders Carlson: Rookie who struggled from 40-plus, going 7 of 13. He also missed five of 39 PATs. Do not confuse him with his brother, Daniel, who kicks for the Raiders.
- AJ Dillon: Meh, lost season — he needs a goal-line plunge. The thumb injury and rain do not give good vibes for ball security. To his credit, he has four career fumbles in 63 combined regular and postseason games.
- Green Bay D/ST: Too hard to trust, even if this game were in Lambeau Field, this unit wouldn’t crack the secondary section.
- Bo Melton: Will likely lose half his playing time to Watson but should still be on the field for at least a dozen plays.
- Patrick Taylor and Emanuel Wilson: Taylor has the nod on DraftKings where he is at the $200 minimum salary. Wilson gets the nod on FanDuel for just $500 more and the surprising 2x snap share from last week. Both are very risky if Dillon is active.
- Kyle Juszczyk: On the field some, and we know the team trusts him, just too many other playmakers.
- Charlie Woerner: There are worse choices.
- Ray-Ray McCloud III: Should be returning punts and kickoffs, got some Week 18 action in his return from the injured reserve, but hard to envision him on offense tonight.
- Jordan Mason, Ronnie Bell, Chris Conley, Josiah Deguara, Brayden Willis, Malik Health and Ben Sims. Most should be active and step between the lines, but the collective over/under for offensive looks is 2.5.
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