Olympic golf has arrived, and so have most of the top players around the world. While there were quite a few snubs with the Americans, Team USA is ready to represent with some of the best out there — including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. We will see just 60 names at one of the more challenging courses in the world. It’s not due to layout so much as it is the maniacal approach by the head super intendant at Le Golf National. The fairways will be extremely narrow and the rough will be as thick as ever; distance does nothing for the field — which is exactly how they want it in France.
There is some carryover from the Ryder Cup and any DP World Tour players who frequent the Cazoo Open de France — both hosted by Le Golf National. One thing to consider, the course management said it shouldn’t play as difficult as the Ryder Cup — but that is easier to believe once we see the course in action.
Team USA doesn’t have anyone on their squad who played in the Ryder Cup but some notable names who did include Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy. It’s certainly not carried in the metrics, but we have a tough course with top golfers who might (maybe minus McIlroy) be extra motivated to win for their country. Some are looking for military exemption, others for pure glory. That’s a factor.
We are in murky, near-untouched waters here, and there’s always risk of your patriotism getting in the way. The good news is that Scheffler should still find a way to maneuver around this course; there’s just no value on him. That said, let’s get into Olympic golf first-round leader bets.
Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks
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The Keys To The Kingdom
This is a tough spot to play golf. The game is already difficult enough without water on the majority of holes and the narrowest fairways golfers will see all year. Distance is irrelevant. The key in narrowing the fairways came from eliminating the massive advantage the Americans have off the tee, forcing tee shots to be more creative or simply more accurate. That part of the course will absolutely carry over, even if the incredibly thick rough is a little easier to hit. Bottom line, golfers are penalized for missing tee shots and gain nothing by smashing the ball an extra 40 yards.
Missing the ball off the tee can lead to a couple of bad positions. The first is dropping out of a water hazard, the second would be hitting around or over tight tree lines. It’s not just the narrow fairways at Le Golf National — it’s what happens when they miss. We like golfers who have played here before, specifically for a first-round leader. While some are playing out of their mind — Scheffler being the poster child — it’s not the easiest course to just walk on and destroy. It might take time for a couple of horses to come from behind and secure victory.
We have a short course that rewards accuracy over anything else. The rough is tough, so we look for golfers who gain strokes on both approach shots and around the green. Having familiarity with Bentgrass helps, but it’s how guys get to the green that matters even more.
Olympic Golf First-Round Leader Picks
Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 at Bet365)
This is a simple formula for a difficult course. Don’t let the Olympic drama or anything on the broadcasts cloud your judgement; this is about short and accurate golfers. What’s fascinating is looking at the field, which is comprised of the best golfers in their respective countries, not the best overall in the world, per se. I love Tommy Fleetwood to win this event but even more to take the lead after one. Between course familiarity and fit, we see a golfer who is playing outstanding golf — outside of a missed cut at the Open.
He won’t have to deal with epic winds at Le Golf National, but he will have to correct a rather bizarre course history. In six tries at the Cazoo Open, Fleetwood missed five cuts. He won the other time. Fleetwood also returns from the Ryder Cup, another advantage over anyone who is new to France. He measures out atop the field in some key categories like driving accuracy and gaining strokes on both approach and around the green. We already know how hot his putter can get; he just needs to put it together.
Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks: Hideki Matsuyama (+3500 at FanDuel)
I am back on the Hideki Matsuyama train and I’m feeling great. So is Matsuyama when facing anything from 150 yards and in. He’s been as good as anyone in this 60-man field gaining strokes off the approach; he’s been able to hit through difficult rough and gain around the green, all while not needing to pummel the golf ball off the tee. It’s a lot to take in, but Matsuyama has as good a game specifically suited for Le Golf National as anyone in this field. A return to more of a Northeast or even Canadian approach rather than the links golf we saw the past two weeks should benefit Matsuyama, who had a nice stretch, including a sixth-place finish at the US Open and eighth the week prior at the Memorial.
Being a newcomer won’t hurt Matsuyama, as he’s played extremely well in comp courses. It’s not a perfect measuring stick, but there’s enough with how to approach these similar courses, which has worked for him and should carry over to France. He’s one of the top golfers in the field when looking at some of the similar courses on tour. We trust Matsuyama’s accuracy off the tee and know he can roll on the bentgrass to score. He should be an early candidate to lead the field after one day, and at 35-1 it’s worth a pop.
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