NHL DFS Picks Today: Sneaky Saturday Value (February 24)

There is a huge 11-game slate on the board tonight and features key names missing as Artemi Panarin and Mark Stone have recently been injured. It makes for interesting matchups, so let’s get to them and our NHL DFS picks today.

As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for updated roster information.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Lineup Decisions and More

NHL DFS Picks: Center

That gives them an expected goal share north of 60%, so they’ve been able to limit the opposition’s offense, and get back down the ice quickly to give Matthews his opportunities to score.

Another big part of Matthews’s goal-scoring run has been the power play. Matthews has six PP tallies over those last 15 games, and the team itself has 15 power play goals in their last 15 games. Conversely, Colorado has averaged 3.8 minor penalties taken per game since January 1^st, the third-highest mark of the 16 teams on tonight’s slate. The Avalanche are giving up the third-most shots against/60 in that span as well, so they’re allowing opponents free reign to fire at the net and are undisciplined on top of that. It bodes well for Toronto’s power play, and Matthews specifically.

There are three elite centers on the board tonight and Matthews is third out of the three by fantasy point projection. However, his ownership projection on DK is under 5% and it’s even lower on FD. Of the three, Matthews looks to easily be the lowest owned and that makes him a target for tournaments.   

Ice time is always the biggest concern for him as those eight games have seen him manage 13:58 per night in ice time, breaking the 16-minute mark just once. However, Novak isn’t priced as if he consistently needs 17 minutes a night, and the matchup against San Jose is tremendous.

To that point about the matchup, San Jose’s 3.2 expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 in calendar 2024 is by far the worst in the league. He will also see a fair bit of the second line from the Sharks, and the duo of William Eklund and Alex Barabanov have an on-ice expected goals against/60 rate even worse than the team average, sitting at 3.5/60. Novak’s efficient production and depth matchups against an awful defensive team are what draw us in this direction.

Novak’s points-per-$1,000 on DK tonight exceeds 2.0, and that’s very good value. He is likely to be a relatively popular option because of his price, but even 5.4% projected ownership is reasonable for this matchup, and that makes him a cheap one-off tournament option.

The value isn’t awful on FD, but it is worse, so, DFS players on that site may want to consider Yanni Gourde (SEA, $4,600) instead.  

NHL DFS Picks: Winger

One key to Giroux’s DFS value is the security in his ice time. He has averaged 19:24 over his last five games, 19:58 on the season, and has skated fewer than 17 minutes just three times in his last 25 appearances.

The home team has also seen their power play come alive of late. In seven games together since the All-Star break, the top PP unit has posted 79.1 shots/60 and 9.9 goals/60. Vegas doesn’t take many penalties, but their penalty kill ranks outside the top-10 by shots, expected goals, and actual goals against/60 over their last 20 games.

Better matchups elsewhere on the slate are leaving Giroux without much ownership as he’s coming in under 3% projected on both DK and FD. He is the only player on his line on the top PP unit, so a one-off option is fine, but he can certainly be used in a stack as well.

Highlighting the Kings’ PP success is crucial for this matchup. The Anaheim Ducks have been taking 4.4 minor penalties per game since January 1^st, the third-most in the league and highest rate of tonight’s 16 teams. That span has seen the Ducks give up 21 power play goals against in 20 games, making this arguably the best matchup for any power play in the league. After going five games without a point, Fiala has goals in back-to-back games, and has a great opportunity to keep building off that in this tremendous special team encounter.

Unlike Giroux, Fiala is carrying high ownership projections as the 17.7% on DK is third highest among all wingers, but lower on FD at 9.6%. Either way, he ranks second by fantasy point projection for flanks in his price range on both sites, so he warrants consideration in any format.  

Foegele has also been moved to the top even strength line alongside Connor McDavid recently, and that has resulted in ice time totals of 18:54 and 16:45, his two highest marks in three months. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5, Edmonton creates 38.9 shots/60 and 3.9 expected goals/60, so there has been much offensive creation between the two of them.

Edmonton is on a back-to-back, but this is not an awful matchup for it. They’re at home, and they get a Calgary side that is 18^th by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 since January 1^st. On a night with a few lopsided matchups elsewhere, the Oilers have the highest team total on the board. With the additional ice time, good per-minute production, and elite line mates, there are lots of reasons to look to Foegele tonight.

There is not much ownership expected for the winger tonight, coming in under 6% on DK and under 5% on FD. A cheap price and high-end line mates mean he can be used in tournaments tonight by himself as a reasonably-priced one-off, or as part of a stack.

NHL DFS Picks: Defender

He also catches a Vancouver team taking the fifth-most minor penalties per game in calendar 2024, the second-most on this slate. Boston, meanwhile, has drawn the third-most minor penalties per game of any team on the board tonight, and McAvoy has received nearly one-third of his points on the man advantage.

McAvoy is ninth by salary among defenseman on DK tonight, and comes in ninth for fantasy point projection. That brings his relative value in line with his cost, making him an option to circle on that site.

The value for McAvoy on FD is much worse because of his high price, so DFS players on that site may want to consider Brent Burns (CAR, $5,900) instead.  

Minnesota is visiting and they’re playing their second game of a back-to-back. The Wild have had a poor penalty kill all season, and that’s persisted with their new coach by ranking 25^th by shots against/60 and goals against/60 over their last 20 games. Seattle is rarely in a good special team matchup, but this is a positive spot for Dunn and the Kraken.  

Of all defensemen in the $4,000-$6,000 range on DK, Dunn ranks fifth by both point-per-dollar value and overall projection. He leads FanDuel projections for defenders priced under $7,000, so he is a target on both sites for tournaments.

NHL DFS Picks: Goalie

At 5-on-5, Vegas has been giving up the fifth-most shots per 60 minutes over the last 20 games while Ottawa has been landing the sixth-most shots/60 in that span. If Vegas can stay out of the penalty box, Hill stands a good chance of seeing a lot of volume at 5-on-5, which is much preferable, and good for his DFS value.

Stokastic’s GoalieStats section have Hill ranked third by projected saves tonight, but fifth by expected goals against. That gap is good for DFS, and makes him a mid-priced option for DFS users on either site.

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NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

COL1: Jonathan Drouin – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Of the 16 teams on tonight’s DFS slate, Colorado is drawing the second-most minor penalties per game since January 1^st. That span has seen Toronto rank 22^nd by shots against per 60 minutes while on the penalty kill, and 22^nd by goals against/60 minutes. MacKinnon has 34 power play points on the season, the second-most in the league, while Rantanen is tied for third with 31. All three forwards on this line man the top power play quintet for the Avalanche, and this is a good matchup for them to get on the board. Toronto is also playing their third road game in four days, so there is a rest advantage on the Colorado side.

The Top Stacks tool at Stokastic has this Colorado trio with the highest top-2 stack percentage, which clears the next-closest line by a wide margin. Their ownership will be a lot lower, so there is good positive leverage, and they are a high-priced stack to focus on for tournament lineups.

OTT2: Brady Tkachuk – Shane Pinto – Vladimir Tarasenko 

A suspension kept Pinto out of the lineup for half the season, so the overall sample is limited. However, in nearly 100 minutes together at 5-on-5, the winger duo of Tkachuk-Tarasenko helped Ottawa outshoot the opponent 73-49 and they have scored six goals in that span. As mentioned in the section on Giroux, the power play has been creating and scoring much more since the All-Star Game, and both Tkachuk and Pinto skate on the top unit together. Tkachuk hasn’t scored in five games, but he has 20 shots in that span as this line has been creating extremely well offensively.

Of all projected lines priced under $18,000 on DraftKings, this Ottawa trio is third by top-2 stack probability at 8.4%. The two lines with a higher probability are projected to have roughly triple (or higher) ownership than OTT2, though, and it makes them a mid-priced option with positive leverage that DFS users should consider.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick