NHL DFS Picks Today: Sabres Are Rocky, Tage Thompson Isn’t (November 5)

It is a huge 11-game DFS slate in the NHL tonight featuring a couple key players returning from injury and some big prize pools on DraftKings. As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More

NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers

The Buffalo power play has largely struggled this year with the top unit scoring just three goals in 12 games, but all three goals have come in the last four outings. That turnaround is important because Ottawa is in town, and the Senators are giving up the sixth-most shots per minute while short-handed. It has led to seven power play goals against in 11 games, so this is an average-at-best penalty kill.

This game has a 6.5 goal total, and that is leading to Thompson having the third-highest fantasy point projection among all centers on DraftKings and highest for any center priced under $9,500. His projection is lower on FanDuel, but still fifth overall, so he’s a strong option for tournament lineups either by himself or part of a stack.

Having a top power play role is crucial for this matchup against Columbus. The Blue Jackets are allowing the third-most shots against per minute on the penalty kill, so despite the eighth-best save percentage, the sheer volume of shots allowed is leading to an average penalty kill goals against.

One thing San Jose boasts is a solid power play as the top unit is scoring 9.8 goals per 60 minutes where the league average is about 7.5. This is a good power play matchup for Celebrini, and this is one of the games with a 6.5 goal total, so there is scoring expected here. At his low price, he can be used as a salary-saving center on DraftKings.

For a cheaper center on FanDuel, consider Kirby Dach (MTL, $4,800) whose fantasy point projection is tops among centers priced under $5,000.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers

Winnipeg’s power play has been a big part of its success this season, and half of Connor’s goals have come with the man advantage. It is riding a bit hot with the top unit shooting 19.7%, but even a normalized 15% shooting would have it 44% above average by goal scoring because it is generating so many shots. That power play success is important with Utah in town because the road team is tied for the seventh-most power play opportunities given per game, and that undisciplined play has led to nine power play goals against in 12 contests.

Connor’s hot streak has driven his DraftKings and FanDuel prices up since the start of the season, and that is hurting his fantasy point-per-dollar projections. However, the price increase is driving down ownership projections as Stokastic is projecting him under 4% on DraftKings and 1% on FanDuel. Connor and his line mates are a high-priced tournament pivot away from very chalky Colorado Avalanche ownership projections.     

Jarvis was ‘demoted’ after the fifth game to skate with Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook, and his fortunes have improved with a shot rate of 20.2 attempts per 60 minutes, or an increase of over 50%. He has two goals, three assists and 16 shots in those five games. He remains on the team’s top power play unit, so he’s still getting some prime ice time, even if his overall ice time has declined a bit since the change.

Notably, five of Jarvis’s 8 points this season have come on the power play. Like Winnipeg in the Connor section, the Carolina power play is running a bit hot by shooting percentage, but it is generating an elite shot rate, so it would still be well above average even when that percentage declines. That power play prowess is important in this matchup as it faces a Philadelphia Flyers team giving up the seventh-most power play opportunities per game. Philadelphia’s penalty kill has generally been good, but it is also missing starting goalie Samuel Ersson due to injury, and his backups have allowed 20 goals in five appearances.

Carolina leads Stokastic’s Data Central with a 3.7 team goal total. Despite that, it doesn’t have a single skater projected above 5% ownership tonight on either site. It does have three lines that can score, and that is what’s keeping ownership down, but Jarvis looks rejuvenated on a new line and is still getting a lot of ice time. For a mid-priced one-off winger with high usage from a team with a high goal total, he is a name to circle.   

Having that top power play role is important for tonight’s matchup with Seattle. The Kraken are only allowing 5.9 goals per 60 minutes on the penalty kill, and that’s good but misleading: The Kraken have a .908 save percentage on the penalty kill, a level no team reached in any of the prior three seasons (and only two teams even reached .900). Seattle’s penalty kill is giving up the fourth-most shots per minute, so when that save percentage regresses, the goals are going to start flying in. This is a good spot for Lehkonen to produce on the power play.

Aside from his roles, the clear appeal for Lehkonen on DraftKings tonight is his price. This is a player whose cost could rise 80% over the next month with this kind of usage on this roster, and he leads Stokastic’s fantasy point projections for wingers under $4,000. He will carry heavy ownership, but he is a salary-saving option.

Lehkonen is still fine to use on FanDuel at that price, but for a cheaper option, consider Yegor Sharangovich (CGY, $4,700) who leads all wingers under $5,000 by fantasy point projection.

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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen

Of course, the matchup with Montreal is the appeal here. The Canadiens are giving up the most high-danger shots and most goals per minute at five-on-five and are giving up the sixth-most power play opportunities per game to the opponent. Calgary is favored in a game with a 6.5 goal total, and all this makes Weegar a target.

A high team total, high usage and a good fantasy profile leave Weegar with a top-5 fantasy point projection among blue liners priced under $7,000 on both sites. He is an expensive option to highlight in any DFS format.

Of all defensemen priced $4,000 or less on DraftKings and $5,000 or less on FanDuel, Pulock leads Stokastic’s fantasy point projections. He will have high ownership rates because of his low price and high projections, but he’s a salary-saving consideration on defense tonight.

Top NHL DFS Goalies Today

Stokastic’s Goalie Stats section has Sorokin with the second highest save total, partly thanks to Pittsburgh averaging the eighth-most shots per minute in the league. That high save total is paired with the seventh-lowest expected goals against projection, so there is a nice discrepancy between a high expected save total and low expected goals against. It is leaving him with the third-highest fantasy point projection for any goalie on both sites and a top-2 fantasy point-per-dollar projection on both as well. Sorokin is a target in goal for any DFS format.

NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

CBJ1: Yegor Chinakhov – Sean Monahan – Kirill Marchenko

DraftKings has been pricing up this trio significantly over the last month, as there were times when each player was under $4,000. However, they are being priced up with good reason, as they’ve been dominant at five-on-five by outscoring the opposition 7-2 and carrying the high-danger shot advantage 22-11 in nearly 100 minutes together.

This trio also skates on Columbus’s top power play, giving it perfect correlation. That power play has been successful for the team this season with 9.7 goals per 60 minutes together, generating 58.4 shots per 60 minutes. They aren’t elite numbers, but they are good, and good is enough against a San Jose team giving up the second-most power plays per game. San Jose’s penalty kill is about average in its minutes, but it takes so many penalties that it is tied for ninth-most power play goals given up per game this season. Combine that undisciplined play with bottom-5 team defense at five-on-five, and it’s a good matchup across the board for CBJ1.

The price increase makes this line a bit unique because most trios in its top-2 stack range are cheaper, but the rising cost is also driving down ownership. It has a higher top-2 stack probability than ownership on both sites, per the NHL Top Stacks Tool, and the good matchup with perfect correlation makes it a tournament target.

OTT2: Claude Giroux – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson

Though it is listed as the second line, this trio has been earning a lot more ice time of late and might even be the top line at the moment: In Ottawa’s last five games, Giroux, Norris, and Batherson are first, third, and fourth by ice time per game, respectively, among the team’s forwards. They have all been earning at least 15 minutes a game at even strength, and both Norris and Batherson are on the team’s top power play unit.

There has been reason to give them more ice time, and it’s because they’ve been playing well together: In a little under 80 minutes together at five-on-five, this line is outscoring the opposition 4-3 and doubling the high-danger shot count by a 16-8 margin. That five-on-five dominance is especially important in its road game in Buffalo tonight because when the Sabres’ top line is off the ice, the team allows 35.5% more high-danger shots against. It is a good five-on-five matchup for OTT2, and Buffalo’s penalty kill is in the bottom 10 of the league by shots and goals against per minute.

On DraftKings, this Ottawa line is $2,700 cheaper than the top line, but it is still carrying a higher top-stack probability (3.3%) than ownership projection (2.7%). That positive leverage, modest cost and solid matchup make it a tournament option.

Ottawa’s second line is much, much more expensive on FanDuel, so for a cheaper option with a higher top-2 stack probability on that site, consider VAN1 of J.T. Miller, Jake DeBrusk and Brock Boeser.

*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey