We have a nine-game NHL DFS slate ahead of us and with no back-to-backs on the board, injury and roster news should be easy to come by. Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock to see what the latest updates are. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. STL)
DraftKings Salary
$9,600
FanDuel Salary
$9,000
After a slow start to the season, Matthews has three goals and five points in his last four games, so he’s getting on track. It wasn’t as if he, or his line, was playing poorly, either: In over 66 minutes together at five-on-five, Matthews’ line is outshooting the opposition 57-39, dominating the high-danger shots 25-12, and scoring five times. Matthews’ entire issue is shooting percentage-related, as he’s shooting 8.3% this season against a three-year average of 16.2%. If that percentage were normal, he’d have six goals instead of three, and we’re talking about what a scorching start he’s having. The position regression has begun, there is more to come, and that is great news for his production.
St. Louis is in town and it’s making Toronto the second-biggest favorite on the board. The Blues have not been good defensively to start the season, ranking 26th by shots against and 27th by high-danger shots against per minute. To make matters worse, St. Louis is without top center Robert Thomas due to injury, and this is not a deep forward group to begin with. A good matchup for Matthews and the Leafs has gotten even better.
As expected, given his price, Matthews is one of the top centers on the board tonight with Stokastic’s fantasy point projections having him second on DraftKings and third on FanDuel. He is a target either as a one-off option in any format or as part of a Toronto stack in tournaments.
Nico Hischier (NJ at DET)
DraftKings Salary
$6,300
FanDuel Salary
$6,900
It has been an excellent October for Hischier as he’s managed five goals, three assists, and 28 shots through nine games. We need to see more of this before drawing conclusions, but it’s notable that his shot attempt rate of 17.2 per 60 minutes is the highest of his career, and his 20:09 per game in ice time is also the highest of his career. That combination has helped push him past three shots per game, and that makes him a threat for the DraftKings shot bonus, something he’s achieved twice already this campaign. Considering he reached that mark just 12 times in 71 games a season ago, the improved shot rate is greatly helping both his fantasy floor as well as his fantasy upside.
The matchup tonight against Detroit is what is particularly appealing about Hischier. Though it’s just been six games, Detroit is 24th by high-danger shots against per minute and 30th by total shots against. Those marks were 24th and 26th last season, respectively, so this is a team whose roster didn’t change much playing as it always has. Detroit has really struggled on the penalty kill, too, giving up the second-most shots and third-most goals per minute this season, so it’s a good matchup at all offensive strengths for this New Jersey center.
Among all centers priced under $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Hischier ranks second and first, respectively, by fantasy point projections. In a tremendous matchup with a 6.5 total, Hischier can be rostered by himself but is likely best used in some sort of New Jersey stack, whether with his even-strength or power play linemates.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Kevin Fiala (LA vs. SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$6,700
FanDuel Salary
$7,400
It has been a shaky start for Los Angeles, but Fiala has been largely stellar offensively with four goals, five points, and 24 shots in his seven games . Though his ice time has declined a bit from last season, his shot attempt rate is up, and his individual expected goals rate is over 50% higher than a year ago. We need to see more games like this, but given the tremendous shot quality he’s generated thus far, it makes sense that he’s shooting 16.7% individually. Once his linemates’ own shooting percentages regress positively – they are under 4% right now – Fiala’s assist totals will rise with it, rounding out his DFS profile.
San Jose is visiting Los Angeles, and it brings a great matchup for Fiala and the Kings. The Sharks are in the bottom 5 of the league by nearly every defensive metric, and it is making them one of four teams to average at least four goals against per game. A big problem for San Jose is it can’t stay out of the penalty box, giving up five power plays per game thus far. Three of Fiala’s 5 points have been with the man advantage, and he leads the team by power play shot rate. It is a great spot for him to add to his power play production.
Of all wingers with a salary under $7,000 on DraftKings or $8,000 on FanDuel, Fiala’s fantasy point projection is third on the former and fifth on the latter. It gives him a fine point-per-dollar value on either site, but he will be a popular target given his home matchup against San Jose with ownership projections in the mid-teens.
Brandon Hagel (TB vs. MIN)
DraftKings Salary
$5,100
FanDuel Salary
$6,800
Hagel was recently added to Tampa Bay’s top power play unit, and that was the missing piece to his DFS profile: Since the start of the 2022-23 season, his even-strength rate of points per 60 minutes was 2.85, or the 94th percentile of the league’s regular forwards. He has five goals and eight points in six games already this season, and while a big part of that is shooting over 31%, his three-year average is 16.6%, so he’s an efficient shooter regardless. Adding top power play time to a player who has been one of the most productive even-strength forwards in the league for three seasons means he is a genuine point-per-game threat.
Getting that top power play time for this matchup is important for Hagel. This season, Minnesota is allowing the second-most shot attempts and second-most high-danger shot attempts per minute while short-handed. It is 24th by goals against per minute, which is bad enough, but it would be considerably worse if it wasn’t getting top-5 goaltending on the penalty kill. Last season, Minnesota had a bottom-5 penalty kill in the league, so this is just a continuation of what this team did a year ago.
Tampa Bay’s power play, meanwhile, is typically among the best in the league, and it is in the top 10 this season. It is a great special team matchup for Hagel and that, along with his high-end even-strength play, is why he’s in this column.
Hagel’s fantasy points projections on both sites put him outside the top-10 wingers in his price range, but that is also reflected in his ownership projections, which sit under 3% for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Given his moderate pricing, low ownership, and the fact he’s the only player on his line that skates on the top power play unit, he is a mid-priced winger target for tournaments tonight.
Lawson Crouse (UTA vs. COL)
DraftKings Salary
$3,700
FanDuel Salary
$5,900
Crouse has been a reliable producer for years now, managing at least 20 goals in three straight seasons and averaging 25 goals every 82 games in that span. While his ice time has declined and he has just 13 shots in seven appearances this season, it is important to note that he’s landing just 48.2% of his shot attempts on goal. His two-year average heading into this season was 56.8%, so he should be over two shots per game moving forward. When looking for cheap DFS value, those kinds of edges matter, and even with a decline in ice time, getting back to that 56% mark would have him with nearly an identical shots-per-game mark as the 2023-24 campaign.
At five-on-five, Crouse has good early chemistry with Alex Kerfoot as the team is controlling 55.6% of the expected goal share and is creating 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes when they’re on the ice. Those are both very good marks, and once their line’s shooting percentage starts regressing positively (it is under 4%, which is unsustainably low), it will start scoring a lot more often. His team is a slight underdog tonight, but the game does have a 6.5 goal total, and that’s good news for Crouse’s fantasy potential.
On DraftKings, and among wingers priced under $4,000, Crouse ranks fourth by fantasy point projections and carries a points-per-$1,000 value rating of 2.0. Those are both very good marks and make him a cheap one-off winger to consider on that site.
Where Crouse is much more expensive on FanDuel tonight, users on that site will want to consider Warren Foegele (LA, $4,600), who is cheaper and projects higher in a home matchup against San Jose.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS packages for the 2024-25 season are live! Use promo code TIPOFF24 to grab NBA Core access for just $1.
Check out our breakdown of NBA subscriptions for full pricing details and learn about two exclusive promos for this season.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Cale Makar (COL at UTA)
DraftKings Salary
$8,500
FanDuel Salary
$8,500
On the other side of the Utah game is a Colorado team that has turned things around, reeling off three straight wins after an 0-4 start. Makar has been a big part of that turnaround, and of the offense in general, with two goals and 12 assists in his seven games. He won’t keep up anywhere near that pace, but his 24:49 per game in ice time is a tiny improvement on his 24:46 from last season when he had 90 points in 77 games.
Though Makar has just 15 shots in his seven contests, his shot attempt rate of 16.23 per 60 minutes is right in line with his two-year average of 16.19. His problem, like Crouse earlier, is that his attempts aren’t landing on goal at the rate they normally do: Just 31.9% of his shot attempts have landed on goal against a two-year average of 43.2%. If his attempt-to-shot ratio were at his career norm, he’d have 20 shots instead of 15, and once that normalizes, it’ll only boost his DFS value.
As expected, Makar leads all defensemen by fantasy point projections tonight, and it’s not particularly close as he exceeds the next-highest blue liner by 14% on DraftKings and 22% on FanDuel. DFS users looking to pay up on defense will want to circle Makar’s name at the top of the board.
Ryker Evans (SEA vs. WPG)
DraftKings Salary
$2,800
FanDuel Salary
$4,800
The bad news for Seattle is that defenseman Vince Dunn is going to miss a few weeks due to injury. The good news for Evans is that he has been tasked with a bigger role and better usage in Dunn’s absence: Evans has skated 19:33 and 22:53 in the two games since Dunn’s injury, both marks being higher than any of his first five games. He is a defenseman who was averaging 16:34 per game through those first five appearances and now is going to flirt with, or exceed, 20 minutes a game. That additional role includes power play time, which is important in Seattle because this is a team that shares its power play time somewhat equally – around a 55/45 split for the defensemen.
Stokastic’s ownership projections for DraftKings tonight have Evans under 1% ownership. Considering his improved role and power play usage, he’s a target as a salary-saving blue liner on that site.
Evans is much more expensive on FanDuel, so users on that site will want to consider Evans’ teammate Jamie Oleksiak ($4,200), who carries a higher projection at a cheaper price.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Igor Shesterkin (NYR vs. FLA)
DraftKings Salary
$8,200
FanDuel Salary
$8,500
After a rough patch to start last season, Shesterkin has looked much more like himself since the 2023-24 All-Star break: He leads all regular starting goalies by save percentage since early February at .929. Looking at just this season, he has a .932 save percentage through five starts. For several months, he has played like the goaltender who finished top 3 in MVP voting back in the 2021-22 campaign.
Stokastic’s Goalie Stats section has Shesterkin with the third highest save total tonight, but in the bottom-half of starters by expected goals against. That gap of high saves and low goals allowed is giving him the second-highest fantasy point projection of any goalie on DraftKings tonight, and third highest on FanDuel. New York’s netminder is on the expensive side tonight, but he is top 5 by expected fantasy points per dollar on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he is a target in goal no matter the type of DFS contest.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
NYR1: Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafreniere
Florida is visiting New York and while the Panthers are typically a good defensive team, this Rangers line has continued its dominance from last season: In nearly 80 minutes together at five-on-five thus far, this trio has outshot its opponent 47-36 and scored five times. Its shot and goal rates are nearly identical to what it did last year in over 860 minutes together at five-on-five, so while this season’s sample is still small, it’s very much in line with what we have come to expect from it.
It is crucial to remember that elite lines like this can bury even the best opponents. For example, in three games against the Panthers last season, this Rangers line had three combined goals, six combined assists, and 34 combined shots. That is no guarantee of success tonight, but it does highlight that even against the best rosters in the NHL, New York’s top line can find a lot of offensive production.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has five lines on DraftKings and four lines on FanDuel with a top-2 stack probability of at least 10% tonight. Of those lines, this Rangers trio is expected to have the lowest ownership rate by a wide margin. DFS tournament players should give some consideration to these three forwards for their stacks.
CAR1: Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
We have to be careful here because Carolina changed up its lines late in its 3-2 overtime win on Tuesday night, moving Jarvis away from the other two. With a game in Calgary tonight, we may not know what Carolina’s lineup looks like until the middle of the afternoon (Eastern time), if at all. It is why we always say to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates because this configuration could change depending on what the coach does.
One reason for the change is probably because this trio has been a mixed bag to start the season. By process, it has been utterly dominant by controlling over 66% of the shot share when it is on the ice at five-on-five, creating an absurd 22.6 high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes. The problem is the team is shooting just 2.4% with it together. It is unsustainably low – that mark was 10.2% across the prior two seasons – but coaches can get impatient waiting for regression. If it is together, the trio creates so much offense that it will fill the net eventually, and all skate on the team’s top power play unit together, so there is perfect correlation.
The Top Stacks tool has this trio with 10% expected ownership on DraftKings, which is a little on the high side but nothing extreme. On FanDuel, the ownership projection is half that, so it makes even more sense on that site. Regardless of where DFS users are playing, if this three-man unit stays together, it is one of the top stacks in its price range.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
