It is the first large Saturday slate of the NHL regular season, and we are here to break down the top plays from the 12 games. As usual, Stokastic members should be sure to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates, especially on a slate this big. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. CBJ)
DraftKings Salary
$9,600
FanDuel Salary
$8,900
Colorado allowed eight goals against in their first game of the season, but MacKinnon was still able to do damage offensively with a pair of assists and four shots. He is coming off an MVP campaign where he became the first player in over 25 years to register at least 50 goals, 80 assists, and 400 shots. His across-the-board DFS profile is elite and one-of-a-kind, which is why he averaged over 20 DK points per appearance. A big reason for the immense upside is that he’s averaged the most ice time per game of any regular forward in the league over the last three seasons.
Columbus is in town, and they were 31st, 27th, and 31st by shots, high-danger shots, and goals against per minute, respectively, in the 2023-24 season. They had a good first game of the season in Minnesota, but they still lost, and the Avalanche are the second-biggest favorites on the board while the game has a 6.5 goal total. Even with an injury to winger Jonathan Drouin, MacKinnon still has running mate Mikko Rantanen next to him, and that’s more than enough for last season’s MVP to have a big night.
Stokastic fantasy point projections have MacKinnon as the top option on the slate, and it’s not even close: He is projected for 33% more DK points and 24% more FD points than the next-closest option. MacKinnon will carry heavy ownership because of that projection and matchup, but he is in play no matter the DFS format.
Wyatt Johnston (DAL vs. NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$5,000
FanDuel Salary
$7,700
Dallas opened the season with a win in Nashville, and Johnston did his part with an assist and four shots. The important note here is that Johnston managed over 21 minutes in ice time, earning 3:35 more than the next-closest Stars forward. That is a continuation of last season’s playoffs when Johnston led all Stars forwards in ice time per game by nearly a full minute, and nearly three full minutes over the third highest forward. Despite being listed on the ‘third’ line, Johnston should have the highest usage on the team, including top power play time.
Last season was Johnston’s second in the NHL, and he registered 32 goals, 33 assists, and 216 shots, being the only player in the league under 24 years old to go 30/30 with at least 200 shots. If his high levels of ice time continue, he should be able to manage at least three shots per game, which improves an important dimension to his DFS profile.
The New York Islanders are in town and are coming off a 5-4 loss to Utah. A familiar problem cropped up for the Islanders as they allowed two power play goals in that loss; last season, the Islanders allowed the most goals against per minute while short-handed, and were still 31st in the league after hiring a new coach. Until this team shows improvements on the penalty kill, they should be considered a poor PK team, and that’s great news for Johnston and the Stars.
Among all centers priced under $6,000 on DK, Johnston leads Stokastic fantasy point projections by nearly 10%. He is the top at his position in his price range, and his usage means he can be rostered in any format, either as a one-off option or part of a stack.
Johnston is listed as a winger on FanDuel (and is much more expensive, besides), so DFS players on that site may want to look to Sam Bennett (FLA, $5,900), who is likely to take over Aleksander Barkov’s top power play role in Florida due to the latter’s ankle injury.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Brady Tkachuk (OTT at MTL)
DraftKings Salary
$7,900
FanDuel Salary
$8,400
Ottawa won their first game of the season in impressive fashion, defeating the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. Tkachuk had a very good DFS performance with an assist and five shots, and that shooting is his hallmark: Over the prior two seasons, Tkachuk had 67 games with at least five shots on goal, tied for third-most in the league. He is not an efficient shooter, converting between 10-11% of his shots in each of the prior three seasons, but that immense volume means he’s a perennial 35-goal scorer with a high DFS floor because of that peripheral production.
The Senators visit the Montreal Canadiens tonight and Ottawa is the highest road favorite at time of writing (early Saturday morning). There is a reason for that as Montreal has given up 77 shots in their two games. An even bigger problem is giving the opponent nine power plays in two games as a big issue from last season – giving up the third-most power plays opportunities per game – persists. Tkachuk earned nearly 70% of the team’s top power play time in Ottawa’s first game, and that kind of usage is important for this particular matchup.
On DK, Tkachuk is carrying the fourth-highest fantasy point projection among all wingers, ranking fifth on FD. He has solid relative value compared to other similarly priced flanks, and his shot volume and matchup makes him an option for both cash games and tournaments.
Mitch Marner (TOR vs. PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$6,100
FanDuel Salary
$8,300
Toronto’s top line, including Marner, failed to score in their first two games, but not for lack of trying: They outshot the opponent 21-13 in their even strength time together, winning the high-danger chance margin 8-2. Crucially for his DFS value, Marner’s average ice time per game was 21:59 in those two contests, a rate that would be the highest of his career. He exceeded 21 minute per game each of the prior two seasons, so this is a forward who gets heavy usage in all phases skating on a top line that has looked tremendous through two games but has been a bit unfortunate with their shooting luck.
In the 2023-24 season, the current iteration of Toronto’s top line, including Marner, won the high danger shot battle at even strength by a huge margin of 106-68. It led to them scoring 3.8 goals per 60 minutes, which is an elite rate. Toronto is a heavy favorite at home tonight to a Pittsburgh team that has allowed nine goals and 72 shots in their first two games, and this game has a 6.5 total. It is a very good spot for Marner and his line mates to finally get on the score sheet.
The point-per-$1,000 value on DK for Marner is nearly 2.0, which is a very good mark for someone in his price range. He is attached at the hip to center Auston Matthews, so DFS players in tournaments will want to consider using the duo, if not the whole line, rather than just Marner by himself.
Marner is considerably more expensive, relatively speaking, on FD than DK, so for a mid-priced winger, FD players will want to consider Timo Meier (NJD, $6,700). He has landed 15 shots on goal in three games, scoring twice, while averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per appearance.
Matvei Michkov (PHI at CGY)
DraftKings Salary
$3,000
FanDuel Salary
$6,400
Michkov had his NHL debut on Friday night, and he didn’t manage a goal or assist, but the good news was that he tied for the team lead in shots (4) and had the third-most ice time of any Philadelphia forward at 18:32. This is a rookie with a very high ceiling as the scouting website Elite Prospects has comparable players to Michkov being Brad Marchand and Nikita Kucherov. He is one of the most highly-touted rookies to enter the NHL since Connor McDavid, including some comparisons to budding Chicago superstar Connor Bedard. Michkov is far from a typical seventh overall pick skating in the second NHL game of his career.
Philadelphia is playing their second game in as many nights, but this also isn’t an overly difficult matchup going into Calgary. Last season, the Flames finished 22nd in the league by goals against per minute, and they have traded two key members of their defense corps, and their starting goalie, over the last nine months. Michkov is skating on the top line and the top power play unit, so he is being put in a position to succeed offensively right out of the gate.
Among wingers priced under $3,500 on DK tonight, Michkov ranks second by fantasy point projections. Once he starts putting up points, his cost will rise significantly, so DFS players may want to use him now as salary-relief while that is still an option.
Michkov is considerably more expensive on FD, so players on that site might want to consider Maxim Tsyplakov (NYI, $4,400) who is skating on the second line and top power play unit for the New York Islanders.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Evan Bouchard (EDM vs. CHI)
DraftKings Salary
$6,600
FanDuel Salary
$6,600
The largest favorite tonight is the Edmonton Oilers, and justifiably so, as they host the Chicago Blackhawks. Last season, Chicago finished 29th by both shots and goals against per minute as the team is still firmly in a rebuild mode. The Blackhawks also played last night in Winnipeg, a game they lost in overtime, so it’s a road back-to-back for this non-playoff team. Edmonton got shut out in their first game of the season, but it was to the two-time Goaltender of the Year in Connor Hellebuyck, and the Oilers still managed 30 shots.
In the 2023-24 season, Bouchard was 1 of 5 regular defensemen to manage at least 7.0 shots per 60 minutes, and that resulted in him registering a DK shot bonus in nearly 19% of his games. In fact, he had the second-most DK shot bonuses of all defensemen (15). He did that while averaging 23 minutes per game, which is important to note because he skated over 25 minutes in his first game of the season. Bouchard quarterbacks the best power play in the league, but he also has a high DFS floor because of his shot volume and expected ice time.
Bouchard’s DK fantasy point projection is third among all blue liners, per Stokastic, but he’s the only defenseman priced $6,000 or higher with a point-per-$1,000 value of 2.0 or higher. He has a very good projection, great value, and is in a fantastic matchup.
Jackson LaCombe (ANA at SJS)
DraftKings Salary
$2,800
FanDuel Salary
$3,700
One of the surprises of the preseason is LaCombe being slotted as Anaheim’s top power play defenseman. While we don’t want to rely too heavily on preseason usage, LaCombe averaged 25:43 in ice time per game during the preseason, and no other Ducks defenseman averaged over 22 minutes. Not only is the second-year blue liner running the top power play unit, but he looks poised to earn a big role on a rebuilding team.
LaCombe isn’t a shot-volume rearguard like Bouchard, but our subject did average 1.8 blocks per game last season while skating under 20 minutes per game. The additional ice time means he can average over two blocks per game, making him a DK block threat every time he takes the ice. Anaheim may be on the road, but they’re facing San Jose, and the home team is one of the few rosters that the Ducks can match up well against. It is why Anaheim is a favorite and with a 6.5 game goal total, and it’s why LaCombe is in this article.
On both DK and FD, LaCombe has a top-10 projection among the ultra-cheap defensemen, which gives him good point-per-$1,000 on both sites. DFS players looking to save some salary on the blue line will want to circle this name.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Anthony Stolarz (TOR vs. PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$8,200
FanDuel Salary
$8,100
Stolarz had a very good first game of the season, saving 26 of 27 shots even as his team lost. He has quietly been one of the better backup goalies in the league for years now as he ranks third among 54 netminders by goals saved above expected per 60 minutes since the start of the 2020 campaign. Crucially, he has now done that across three different franchises, and over 60% of the starts in that sample came on an awful Anaheim Ducks roster. As with all goalies, prior performance does not guarantee future results, but Stolarz has largely managed very good games whether playing for a basement team like Anaheim or a league champion like Florida.
Stokastic projections have Stolarz ranking second among all goalies tonight by fantasy points, whether on DK or FD. He has the sixth-highest save projection and the seventh-lowest goals against projection, which is a sweet spot for finding DFS value. He is on the more expensive side on both sites, but is in a heavily-favored home matchup against Pittsburgh and rates as one of the best point-per-dollar values at his position.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
COL1: Nikolai Kovalenko – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Colorado is missing four key wingers, but they still have their top two offensive forwards in MacKinnon and Rantanen, plus elite offensive defenseman Cale Makar. The fact they’re missing so many wingers means Kovalenko is taking a turn on the top line, and that’s crucial for DFS as he’s min-priced on DK and $1,500 cheaper than Drouin on FD. It makes the Avalanche top line reasonably priced, being fourth by total cost on DK and fifth on FD. This is a very appealing trio on a large slate that has several high-priced lines worthy of consideration.
NHL DFS tournament players will have a big decision to make tonight. As mentioned in the section on MacKinnon, Colorado is a very heavy favorite, and their top line should play a lot of minutes. Their elite offensive profile and the matchup means they are the highest top-2 stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel, per the Top Stacks tool. They should also be the highest-owned stack by a wide margin, partly thanks to the cheap winger in Kovalenko, as their early DK ownership projection is 27.4%, and no other stack is over 15%. It is a great spot for this trio, and whether to use them or not depends on individual tolerance for heavy ownership.
WSH1: Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Andrew Mangiapane
Washington made a lot of additions in the offseason, Mangiapane being one of them. He had fallen on hard times in Calgary, but he had a three-year stretch from 2019-2022 where he averaged 28 goals every 82 games and is still just 28 years old. He is a talented offensive winger looking to rebound and is being given a prime position on the Washington roster to do it. Though Mangiapane is on the second power play unit, Ovechkin very often plays both halves of the power play, so there is some power play correlation between the two of them.
On a night with several high-priced lines, looking for a filler stack is necessary. Few top lines are priced like filler stacks, but Washington’s is one of them at $13,500 on DK and $17,900 on FD. Over on DK, this Washington line has the second highest top-2 stack probability of any line priced under $14,000, but falls to sixth by expected ownership. They are underdogs at home to New Jersey, but Ovechkin and Strome should get heavy minutes, and that matters considering their low cost.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
