It is a colossal 15-game DFS slate in the NHL tonight as teams get ready for a day off for American Thanksgiving. News will be coming fast and furious, so we encourage Stokastic members to check Discord for any last-minute roster updates before lock. Now, let’s dive into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks, using Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced simulation data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. VGK)
DraftKings Salary
$9,900
FanDuel Salary
$8,700
There has been a shift in how MacKinnon approaches his offensive game this season as he’s more focused on playmaking than shooting. His shot attempt rate is down 26% from last season so even though he’s earned more ice time, his shot rate is down to 3.4 per game (he was over 5.0 per game across the prior two seasons). He is shooting less, but he has still managed six DraftKings shot bonuses in his 22 appearances, and his 28 assists leads the league. Even with the change in approach, his fantasy points per game this season leads all centers on this slate.
Colorado has lost Jonathan Drouin due to injury again, and that resulted in Mikko Rantanen being moved back to MacKinnon’s line. That duo has been tremendous over the last 14 months as Colorado is averaging nearly 4.0 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with it on the ice, which is an elite rate. Vegas is in down tonight without winger Mark Stone, and since his injury, the Vegas top line is allowing 4.1 expected goals and 3.2 actual goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It gives MacKinnon a much better matchup at five-on-five, and Vegas is 24th by goals against with a man in the penalty box, too.
Stokastic fantasy point projections have MacKinnon leading the way at all positions on both sites, clearing the next-highest projection by 14.7% on DraftKings and 17.9% on FanDuel. He is in a good matchup, has had a great season and is the top projected player on the board. All that makes him playable in any format.
Jack Drury (CAR vs. NYR)
DraftKings Salary
$2,800
FanDuel Salary
$4,500
Carolina has been changing up its lines a bit recently, and the latest iteration has Drury skating on the second line with Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas. That is a pretty good spot for the center as those two wingers are second and third on the team by five-on-five goals scored per minute across the last two-plus seasons. That change has also led to more ice time for Drury, who is up to 14:49 per game across the last five games as compared to 12:46 per game in his first 16 appearances. He does not have a point in those recent five outings, but he does have 10 shots on goal, a sharp increase in shot volume. More ice time and better linemates should lead to improved fantasy production.
New York is in town and the Rangers have been on a big defensive slide. Over the last month, New York sits 28th by expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, allowing the most shots against per minute while giving up the fifth-most goals per minute. It is still getting good goaltending, but the team is giving up so much defensively that it’s led to a much higher goals against rate than early in the campaign. It is a matchup where Drury can take advantage of his much-improved situation against a team on a slide.
Of all centers priced under $3,000 on DraftKings tonight, Drury’s fantasy point projection leads the pack. The value is lower on FanDuel where he’s more expensive, but given his sudden shift in role and linemates, he is a cheap one-off center to consider for DFS players looking to save at the position.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Brady Tkachuk (OTT at SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$8,300
FanDuel Salary
$7,700
Ottawa has been inconsistent, but Tkachuk has had a great season thus far with 11 goals, 12 assists and 87 shots. In fact, he’s the only player in the league with at least 10 goals, 10 assists and four shots per game so far this season. He has been contributing across the board, and that prodigious shot volume has meant 10 DraftKings shot bonuses in 21 appearances this season. That high-level production and shot rate has led to consistency in his fantasy performances with double-digit DraftKings points in 16 of 21 games and double-digit FanDuel points in 14 of 21 games. The team may not be consistent, but he sure has been.
Of course, the matchup in San Jose is what is drawing our attention here. The Sharks are 26th by goals against per minute this season, and that is despite a team save percentage that is 14th in the league. Were it not for good-to-great goaltending, the goals-against mark would be even worse than 26th. Ottawa is heavily favored in this matchup and the game has a 6.0 goal total, so there is a lot of scoring expected from the Senators side, and that bodes well for Tkachuk.
Tkachuk ranks second and third, respectively, among all wingers by fantasy point projections for DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Ownership projections are in check as he is under 9% on DraftKings and 6% on FanDuel, so he is an expensive winger to highlight for this slate.
Conor Garland (VAN at PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$4,300
FanDuel Salary
$5,700
Vancouver played last night in Boston, so this is a road back-to-back situation. The good news is it is in Pittsburgh, and the Penguins are 27th by expected goals against, 29th by shots against and dead last by goals against per minute this season. Pittsburgh has allowed at least three goals against in 20 of its 23 games this season, and that means it has given up at least six goals more often (five times) than it has allowed two or fewer (three times). If a team has to play a road back-to-back, this is about as good an offensive situation as possible.
This is great news for Garland. Even with the return of winger Brock Boeser last night, Garland still managed 19:22 in ice time, and that includes top power play minutes. Very quietly, Garland has led Vancouver forwards in assists (11), points (17) and shots (44). Part of that is due to injuries elsewhere, but it still puts him on pace for a 25-goal, 70-point season. With all the usage he’s getting – averaging over 20 minutes a game across his last 11 games – he doesn’t need to be efficient with his point or shot production; but a matchup against a poor defensive team like Pittsburgh could help his efficiency anyway.
Among wingers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Garland leads the way by fantasy point projections by a wide margin as he’s projecting for 16.7% more DraftKings points and 15.7% more FanDuel points than the next-closest option. He can be used as a mid-priced one-off winger in any format, especially where he has no power play correlation with his linemates.
Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ vs. MTL)
DraftKings Salary
$3,600
FanDuel Salary
$4,200
The 2023-24 season was a quiet breakout year for Voronov as he had 18 goals in 75 games, skating 13:27 per contest. His goals per minute led all rookies with at least 50 games played, and he’s followed up that performance well this season with five goals in 11 games since returning from injury. What is important to note is that he spent four games on the third/fourth lines when he returned from injury before being moved up the lineup. In the seven games since that change, he has four goals, 6 points and 16 shots on goal while earning an extra 2.5 minutes per game. That improved role includes top power play time, too.
Voronkov has spent over 60 minutes on the top line this season and in that time, Columbus has generated 4.1 expected goals and 6.6 actual goals per 60 minutes. It is a small sample, but it’s notable that without Voronkov, the top line was still generating 3.8 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. It has been great with or without him, but it helps his offensive profile tremendously, and facing a Montreal Canadiens team playing its second game in as many nights has Columbus favored and the game with a 6.5 goal total.
This Columbus winger leads Stokastic fantasy point projections tonight for all wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel. He has perfect correlation with his linemates, so a tournament stack makes sense, but he’s cheap enough where he can be used as a one-off option in any format.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Dougie Hamilton (NJ vs. STL)
DraftKings Salary
$6,600
FanDuel Salary
$6,500
It was a very slow start to the season for Hamilton as he was pointless through six games, but he has been on a tear since with 17 points in his last 18 games. Besides the point production, Hamilton has six DraftKings shot bonuses in that stretch. He leads all NHL defensemen in shots per minute by a wide margin, surpassing the second-highest rate by nearly 14%. He doesn’t often play heavy minutes – he has been between 18 and 21 minutes in each if his last five games – but he is very efficient with his shooting and production, and that matters a lot.
What also matters is the matchup with St. Louis in town. It switched up its coach recently, but this team is 22nd by shots against and 25th by goals against per minute on the season. New Jersey is a heavy home favorite tonight, and that gives it a 3.5 goal total. Hamilton has the second-highest fantasy point projection for any defenseman priced under $7,000 on DraftKings and fifth highest on FanDuel. DFS players looking to spend up on the blue line tonight should consider Hamilton in their lineups.
Thomas Harley (DAL at CHI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,900
FanDuel Salary
$5,100
It has been a mixed performance for Harley this season. He does have 10 points in 20 games, which is solid, but the key is he’s done that without a power play point yet. That is despite the fact that he often skates on the second power play unit (13.1 goals per 60 minutes) and that unit has been far more productive than the top unit (3.0 goals per 60 minutes). Harley should probably have at least a couple power play points, so he’s being a bit short-changed on his production, even if he’s still pacing for over 40 points. Add the fact that he’s averaging over two shots and one block per game, and there is solid peripheral coverage to go along with that solid point production.
The matchup with Chicago is an appealing one. Dallas is a heavy road favorite, and like Hamilton, that gives Harley’s team a 3.5 implied goal total. Harley’s across-the-board appeal and high team total gives him the second-highest fantasy point projection for any blue liner priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. Anyone looking to save a bit of money on defense should circle Harley’s name.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Cam Talbot (DET vs. CGY)
DraftKings Salary
$7,900
FanDuel Salary
$7,900
As a team, the Detroit Red Wings are giving up the fifth-most shots per minute this season. However, Talbot has been very good this season with a .921 save percentage, tied for sixth in the league among goalies with at least 10 starts. That great performance combined with his team giving up a lot of shots has led to a lot of excellent fantasy performances; Talbot has posted double-digit DraftKings or FanDuel points in 8 of 11 starts. He is one of six goalies with at least three DraftKings save bonuses on the season.
That shot volume can be a bad thing, but the matchup is a good one with Calgary in town. Last season, the Flames were 13th by shots per minute but 18th by goals per minute. The difference is even more drastic this season as they’re again 13th by shots per minute but down to 23rd by goals per minute. They are not an efficient team, and that is why Talbot is projected for the second-highest save total but close to the middle of the pack by expected goals against. It makes him a top-5 goalie by projected fantasy points per dollar tonight and a target in net for DFS lineups.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
CAR1: Seth Jarvis – Sebastian Aho – Jack Roslovic
As mentioned in the section on Drury, this is a really good matchup for Carolina. Jarvis returned on Monday night and that gives Aho a frequent linemate from last year to skate with. Beyond that five-on-five appeal, though, is the fact that Carolina’s top power play unit is generating 10% more shot attempts with Jarvis on the ice than when he was injured. He is a difference-maker at all strengths, and it’s good news to have him back with Aho for all its offensive minutes.
The concern here is Roslovic because he has been moved off this line during games at times this season, and he has as many games with under 12 minutes played (3) as he does with more than 17 minutes. He can be left off the stack for Necas or Svechnikov to add more power play correlation, but Roslovic is averaging 2.6 shots per game, so he’s definitely getting involved offensively. At the least, there are varied stacking options here.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this trio with a 3.1% top-2 stack probability on DraftKings tonight and 3.5% on FanDuel. That isn’t high, but it’s a 15-game slate and there are only three lines on the board on either site with a top-2 probability above 8%. Jarvis represents a large salary saving over Svechnikov, who had been on that line, so it is reasonably priced with positive leverage. It is an option for a mid-priced stack on either site.
NSH1: Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist
It has been a tough season for Nashville, and this line has had its fair share of bad luck by scoring just 1.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Its expected goals-for rate is more than double that number, and this trio scored 3.6 goals per 60 minutes in 765 minutes together last season. It has dominated the possession game, have created a lot of offence, but have not been rewarded. With this level of quality shot generation, it’s just a matter of time before the goals start flying in, and getting a Philadelphia team that is 26th by expected goals against and 30th by actual goals against per minute at five-on-five is a good place to start.
The better news is that late in Nashville’s last game, Nyquist was added back to the top power play unit. It gives this Nashville trio perfect power play correlation and at reasonable prices of $15,000 on DraftKings and $17,300 on FanDuel. They will carry much more ownership than their top-2 stack probability because of that price, correlation and matchup, but on a slate this large, ownership doesn’t matter as much. This is another trio to consider for a mid-priced stack in tournaments.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
