NHL DFS Picks Today: Massive Value To Be Found (February 10)

There are seven games on the Saturday night NHL slate, but it’s also a night where a handful of teams are returning from their bye weeks: Los Angeles, Seattle, Columbus, Nashville, and Ottawa are all playing their first game in at least nine days. It could lead to surprising line combinations or injuries, so Stokastic members should double-check the Discord before lock for lineup changes.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Lineup Decisions and More

NHL DFS Picks: Center

In that span, Matthews and the rest of Toronto’s top power play unit has scored 15.1 goals/60 minutes with the man advantage. For reference, the elite Edmonton power play scored 13 goals/60 in that span, so Toronto’s has truly been on another level.

Beyond the bye week rust and the Leafs’ elite power play is the fact that the Senators just haven’t played well defensively. It has been 21 games since their new coach took over and Ottawa is 26^th by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 over those contests, ranking dead last by goals against/60. Matthews has three points and nine shots on goal in the two games since returning from his own bye week, so he’s picked up right where he left off and gets a great offensive matchup tonight.

Of all centers on the slate, Matthews leads by projected fantasy points on DraftKings and is a shade behind Connor McDavid on FanDuel. A high team total and great matchup will drive ownership his way but Matthews needs to be considered in all formats.

That mark is easily a top-line rate and the fact that his expected goal rate is so high tells us that Voronkov gets a lot of his shots from close to the net, and that’s a good sign for his offense.

A big part of Voronkov’s recent success has been his chemistry alongside winger Kent Johnson. Though it’s still a small sample of just under 60 minutes together at 5-on-5, they have outshot the opposition 38-20 and outscored them 4-0 in that time. Those are great offensive numbers and while they don’t get high levels of ice time on a nightly basis, Voronkov’s price does not necessitate 18 minutes a night for DFS value.  

Voronkov leads all centers priced under $4,000 by fantasy point projection on DraftKings and that makes him a very good value, even with his moderate ice time. He and his line mates should be considered as cheap options for tournaments.

Voronkov is listed as a winger on FanDuel, so DFS players on that site should consider Jack Drury (CAR, $3,800) for a lower-cost center.

NHL DFS Picks: Winger

That recent stretch has seen him score six goals on 48 shots in 12 games, which means four shots per appearance. That is elite shot volume production and is one of the things that makes Tippett so valuable in DFS. Facing Seattle isn’t a good power play spot – it rarely is for Philadelphia regardless of opponent – but he’s also earning top power play minutes.

The Flyers change their line combinations more often than the Northern Lights change their color pattern, but Tippett has often been skating with top center Sean Couturier of late. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5 this season – a span of nearly 210 minutes – the team is generating 38.1 shots, 3.1 expected goals, and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. Seattle is normally a tough defensive team but they’re coming off their bye week, so with Tippett’s improved usage and top line mates, he could be catching the Kraken at the right time.

On DraftKings, Tippett leads all wingers priced under $6,000 by fantasy point projection, and the same is true for flanks under $7,000 on FD. The exceptional value is driving his projected ownership into the teens on both sites, but his shot volume and increased usage means he’s in play for tournaments.

A big reason for the improvement at 5-on-5 is his line is finally scoring with Jack McBain having jumped to top-line center. Keller’s top trio has created 3.2 expected goals/60 and 4.3 actual goals/60 with McBain in the middle, and though Barrett Hayton’s return may change that eventually, the team seems committed to McBain for now

Another change for Keller has been his bigger role. His last eight games have seen him cross the 20-minute threshold five times, managing at least that many minutes just 15 times in his first 41 games. Nashville is another team that is returning from their bye week so while facing their shutdown line normally isn’t ideal, this is as good of a situation as it would get for our winger. Combine all this with a price drop on DraftKings, and it’s why Keller is on this list for tonight.

On DraftKings tonight, Keller is the second winger behind Tippett in their price range for projected fantasy points. The difference is his projected ownership is less than half of Tippett’s on both sites, so Keller is a lower-owned pivot from Tippett on this slate.

Their on-ice goal rates are low, but they’re also facing a Columbus team that is returning from its bye week and is 26^th by expected goals against/60 and actual goals against/60 at 5-on-5 over their last 20 games.

Eyssimont is a player who struggles to finish as he’s shooting a poor 5.7% for his career. He does generate very good shot volume, though, as his 9.9 shots/60 at 5-on-5 is second among Tampa Bay forwards this season. He rarely gets much ice time, but he can generate in what little time he’s given, and he’s not priced as if he needs even 15 minutes a night. He leads all wingers on DK priced under $3,000 by fantasy point projections and is second among those under $4,000 on FD. Even if he starts on the third line, it’s a great matchup at a very cheap price, and that makes him a palatable salary-saving one-off option.

NHL DFS Picks: Defender

Arizona has averaged 3.9 minor penalties per game over the last eight weeks, the fourth-highest rate in the league and most for this slate. No matter the configuration of the power play forwards, Josi should get his fair share of power play time in this matchup.

Josi is the most expensive blue liner on the board, but he also leads the position’s fantasy point projections by 15.8% on DK and 12.2% on FD. The matchup and the gap to the next-closest option could mean Josi is the highest-owned defender tonight, regardless of site, but he warrants consideration regardless.

If Pesce returns, that will cut into Slavin’s ice time again, but Carolina still has one of the highest team totals on the board and that bodes well for his offensive upside. His top pair with Brent Burns has helped Carolina a lot offensively at 5-on-5 as the team creates 3.4 goals/60 with them skating together and just 2.2 goals/60 with them off the ice. Against a New Jersey team still missing key pieces from their lineup, and with very questionable goaltending, it is more good news for Slavin’s upside.

Slavin easily projects as the top defenseman priced under $4,000 by fantasy points on DK tonight, and of those priced under $5,000 on FD. Whether Pesce is in the lineup or not, the Hurricanes rely on their blue line to get the offense going and this is a great matchup for Slavin to do so.

NHL DFS Picks: Goalie

It gives him lots of time to see the shot coming through and that helps him make easier saves. Seattle is also by far the least penalized team in the league over the last two months so he’s not being asked to make a lot of difficult short-handed saves, either. The Kraken returning from their bye week is the biggest concern but if the team can keep things tight defensively, it would give Daccord a good chance of success tonight.

The GoalieStats section on Stokastic has Daccord leading all goalies by projected saves tonight but with the third-lowest projected goals against. That gap between shot volume and goals allowed is great for DFS value, and it’s what makes him a goaltender to consider in tournaments.

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NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

TOR2: William Nylander – John Tavares – Tyler Bertuzzi

As mentioned in the section on Matthews, this is an undisciplined Ottawa team that is coming out of its bye week, and both those things are good news for Toronto. The bit of good news for this particular Toronto line is that they will avoid the Tim Stützle–Claude Giroux shutdown matchup and the rest of Ottawa’s lineup does not pose much defensive difficulty. One problem for this Toronto line’s offense earlier in the season was that Tavares shot a paltry 7.1% in his first 46 games; for a player with a three-year average of 12.1% that hasn’t finished a season below 10% in his career, it was anomalous. Tavares now has three goals in his last three games as that regression is kicking in and it’s great news for the entire trio.

This line ranks second for top-2 stack probability on the DraftKings side of things, per the Top Stacks tool, and third on FanDuel. A reasonable price should mean they’re also one of the highest-owned lines, but their matchup and production mean they should at least be given a glance when making tournament lineups.

WPG1: Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Gabriel Vilardi

Winnipeg has stumbled since returning from their bye week but they’re back home tonight and get a Pittsburgh team playing their second road game in as many nights. Injuries have limited the time this trio has spent together, but the duo of Vilardi-Connor has helped the Jets create 35.3 shots and 3.1 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. For a line that normally gets a lot of ice time, that is good usage.

On DraftKings tonight, this Jets line is only $300 more expensive than the Toronto line listed above. Despite that tiny cost difference, the ownership projection for this trio is under 5% against the sky-high ownership for the Leafs. Their top-2 stack probability is also less than half that of Toronto’s, but they make a similarly-priced, low-owned pivot away from what will be a chalky Leafs stack.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick