There are just seven games for this Tuesday NHL DFS slate, but with Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Florida, Winnipeg, Minnesota and the New York Rangers, there is a lot of firepower. As always, we encourage Stokastic members to check Discord for any last-minute roster updates before lock. Now, let’s dive into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks, using Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced simulation data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Brayden Point (TB at PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$6,500
FanDuel Salary
$6,600
Point is expected to return to Tampa Bay’s lineup after missing over two weeks due to injury. He is slated back in his usual top-line role with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, and that trio was excellent to start the season with an expected-goals-for rate over 3.0 every 60 minutes, outscoring the opposition 12-3 in its 138 minutes together. Individually, Point started the season with eight goals in 12 games, and though he was shooting an unsustainable 38%, he has back-to-back seasons shooting at least 20%, so he is one of the most efficient shooters in the NHL.
The appeal tonight is clearly the matchup with Pittsburgh as the Penguins sit 28th by expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, giving up the second-most high-danger shots per minute. Even with a solid penalty kill, Pittsburgh is giving up the most goals per minute of any team in the league, and that’s great news for Point and his linemates. Even that solid penalty kill may be in trouble as the Lightning’s top power play unit was scoring 11.2 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-four before Point’s injury.
Among centers priced under $7,000 across DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, Point ranks second and fourth, respectively, by fantasy point projections tonight on Stokastic. He is a better relative point-per-dollar value on FanDuel, mostly because of shot volume concerns that mean less on that site, but he and the rest of Tampa’s top line are firmly in play for tournaments.
Brock Nelson (NYI at CGY)
DraftKings Salary
$5,400
FanDuel Salary
$5,800
It has been eight games for New York without star Mathew Barzal, and those eight games have seen Nelson score three times, landing 20 shots on goal. He is averaging over three shots per game on the campaign, reaching the DraftKings shot bonus four times in 18 appearances. He is pacing for a 32-goal season, which would be his fourth straight campaign with at least 30 goals. Nelson has achieved all this despite not yet registering a power play point after posting 19 such points last season and 17 the year before. The Islanders power play isn’t very good, but that he’s been held pointless is extreme at this point, so there are better days ahead.
Going into Calgary is a solid road matchup for New York. On the season, the Flames rank 22nd by expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 28th by shots against per minute. What has saved them is great goaltending, and that is not a reliable way to keep goals against totals low game in and game out. Nelson’s line has been dominant territorially and has scored 11 times in 195 minutes together, which is a very good production rate.
Among centers priced under $6,000 on both sites tonight, Nelson ranks second by fantasy point projections and carries a solid fantasy-point-per-$1,000 value over 2.0 on both as well. He will have high ownership rates because of the good value and matchup, but he is a mid-priced center target to consider in any format.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN at STL)
DraftKings Salary
$9,600
FanDuel Salary
$9,000
Going into Tuesday night, Kaprizov leads the NHL by points per game at 1.82. He is averaging over three shots and 22 minutes per game, so there is a lot of volume here. Minnesota is also welcoming Joel Eriksson Ek back to the lineup, and that’s important for Kaprizov because over the last two seasons, Minnesota has created 32% more shots, 37% more expected goals and 38% more goals at five-on-five when Kaprizov has Eriksson Ek as his center than when he doesn’t. It is a huge production jump for a winger with otherwise elite offensive totals and portends high fantasy upside.
The matchup against St. Louis is a very good one too. On the season, the Blues are 26th by expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 30th by actual goals against. St. Louis doesn’t take a lot of penalties but struggles to kill off the ones it does take, allowing 12 power play goals against in its 52 penalty kills, a bottom-10 rate in the league. It all bodes very well for a superstar winger who is arguably the league’s MVP through the first 20% of the campaign.
Kaprizov’s fantasy point projection tonight ranks second among all wingers on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and third among all skaters. However, his ownership is in check on both sites, coming in under 9% on DraftKings and at 12% on FanDuel. There are some expensive Wild skaters worth rostering, but Kaprizov tops that list and is among the best on the entire board.
Ryan Donato (CHI vs. ANA)
DraftKings Salary
$4,200
FanDuel Salary
$6,000
It has been a quietly excellent start for Donato, who has eight goals and 11 points in 16 games to start the season. While his 18.6% shooting indicates some regression, it is notable that both his shot attempts per 60 minutes and actual shots on goal per 60 minutes are at six-year highs. Those marks are in the 93rd and 96th percentile, respectively, among all regular forwards in the league, so the shot rates are elite. Importantly, he has seen a commensurate rise in ice time as he’s averaged 16:09 per game in the month of November compared to just 12:22 in October. In those seven November games, he has averaged over four shots per game and reached the DraftKings shot bonus twice.
Chicago is not a good team, so it gets very few positive matchups, but tonight is one of them. Anaheim played last night in Dallas, so this is a road back-to-back situation. On the season, the Ducks rank dead last by expected-goals-against rate at five-on-five and dead last by shots-against rate on the penalty kill. Tremendous goaltending has saved them from being blown out a few times, and if they don’t get tremendous goaltending again tonight, it is a good spot for Donato to add to his goal total.
Among DraftKings wingers priced under $5,000, Stokastic has Donato sixth by fantasy point projection and a fantasy-point-per-dollar value over 2.1, which is very good. His ownership projection – about 10% – is in check for a seven-game slate, so he is a mid-priced one-off option to target.
Donato is listed as a center on FanDuel, so users on that site may want to consider Taylor Hall (CHI, $4,700) who also carries a very solid point-per-dollar value in this matchup.
Cutter Gauthier (ANA at CHI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,700
FanDuel Salary
$4,700
On the other side of the ice from Chicago is Anaheim, a team coming off a 4-2 win in Dallas last night. Gauthier scored just his second goal of the season, but it’s his second in as many games, and he was due for some positive regression after failing to score across his first 15 games and 35 shots. For the season, Gauthier sits in the 89th percentile of league forwards by shots per minute, which is excellent for a rookie. He has issues with missing the net a lot, but he’s taking so many shots that he is good for fantasy point production.
An important note for Gauthier in this matchup is that he is going to avoid Chicago’s shutdown duo of Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson. With them on the ice at five-on-five, the Blackhawks are excellent defensively, giving up just 1.9 expected goals against per 60 minutes and one actual goal against in 93 minutes together. With them off the ice, the expected-goals-against rate increases by 31%, so Gauthier should get solid matchups against depth from Chicago that allows a lot more shots – and better-quality shots – than with the shutdown line on the ice.
Among all wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, Gauthier ranks fourth and sixth, respectively, by fantasy point projection. It gives him a fantasy-point-per-$1,000 value of at least 2.0 on both sites, which is very good. Despite that value, his ownership projection is 1% or lower on both sites, so he makes a low-cost one-off to consider for tournament lineups.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Evan Bouchard (EDM vs. NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$6,800
FanDuel Salary
$6,200
It has been a rollercoaster fantasy season for Bouchard, who has four games of at least 20 DraftKings points but also seven games with fewer than 6.0 DraftKings points. For reference, Vancouver defenseman Quinn Hughes also has four games with at least 20 DraftKings points but just two games with fewer than 6.0 DraftKings points. When Bouchard has a big game, he has as much upside as any defenseman in the league, but the lows are very low. There are hopefully much better days ahead as Edmonton is shooting just 8.9% with him on the ice this season, a rate that was 12.2% across the prior two seasons.
Bouchard is currently fifth in the league for shot attempts per minute from a defenseman, though he has been missing the net a lot, which is part of that boom-bust aspect of his fantasy profile. He does still have three DraftKings shot bonuses in 19 games, and there could be even more to come if his shot starts finding its way on target more often.
Stokastic has Bouchard projected second among all defensemen by fantasy points tonight on DraftKings and third on FanDuel. Until he and the team find more consistency, he is tough to rely on in cash games, but he has tremendous tournament upside and should be considered in those formats. Â
Declan Chisholm (MIN at STL)
DraftKings Salary
$2,500
FanDuel Salary
$3,900
Minnesota made a key change to its power play, and it wasn’t driven by injury, as Chisholm is expected to take the top role from Brock Faber. While the Minnesota power play hasn’t been high-end this season, top power play minutes are very important for any defenseman, let alone one that is min-priced on DraftKings and under $4,000 on FanDuel. If the Wild blue line is fully healthy, he may not reach 20 minutes even with that power play role, but the minutes he will get have high offensive potential, especially in this matchup against a woeful St. Louis side. It is worth noting that Chisholm doesn’t provide much for shot and block rates, so this is about point production and not the ancillary stats.
There isn’t a lot that needs to be said here. Minnesota is a large road favorite against a team with a poor penalty kill and Chisholm has a prime power play role at a basement price. He should be at the top of any list for salary-saving defensemen tonight.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Ilya Sorokin (NYI at CGY)
DraftKings Salary
$7,500
FanDuel Salary
$7,500
There have been some bumpy games lately for Sorokin, who has just one win in his last five starts, but what is notable about those contests is that he’s faced an average of 35.2 shots per game, reaching the DraftKings save bonus twice. Despite allowing at least three goals in all of those games and posting just one win, he has averaged 12.7 DraftKings points and 13.7 FanDuel points in that span. Getting shot volume matters, even more so in losses, and it speaks to the upside Sorokin has if he can see that volume and keep the goals against modest; even better if he gets the win.
The positive for him tonight is the matchup with Calgary. This season, one-third of Calgary’s shots have been from further than 45 feet. For reference to other teams on this slate, Tampa Bay is getting about 28% of its shots from further than 45 feet, and the New York Rangers are at about 27%. The Flames can make it easy on goalies because of the way they run their offense, and it gives Sorokin a chance to make a lot of saves from distance. He has both the second-highest fantasy point projection and fantasy-point-per-$1,000 projection for any goalie on both sites tonight, and a modest price brings him in play for a good matchup. Â
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
NYR2: Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafrenière
After some time away, New York reassembled this elite line, and it’s probably a good thing as this trio has once again been tremendous offensively at five-on-five: In 163 minutes together, it is creating 3.1 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes, which are both high-end marks. In the two games since being reunited, these forwards are first, second and third in ice time per game among Rangers attackers too, so they are back to heavy usage as well. Lafrenière still isn’t on the top power play unit, but he is over 16 minutes per game at even strength as the team is finding ways to get him in good offensive spots without that power play time.
Going into Vancouver is typically a difficult matchup, but its shutdown line has not been nearly as good defensively since the injury to forward Brock Boeser. Also, that road matchup is keeping a lot of ownership away from this elite Rangers trio, as the Top Stacks Tool. has it at 1.9% ownership on DraftKings and 4.3% on FanDuel. Its top-2 stack probability is over 10% on both sites, so there is upside with low ownership, and that’s what brings it into play for tournaments.
CHI1: Connor Bedard – Jason Dickinson – Joey Anderson
It is not often that Chicago players are recommended, but as mentioned in the section for Donato, this is one of the few times they will get a good matchup this season. They are heavy home favorites in a game with a 6.5-goal total, so there is scoring expected from the Blackhawks. Â
Despite Chicago’s scoring struggles – it is last in the league by goals per minute – Bedard is on pace for nearly a 60-point season, and he’s done that shooting just 5.6%, which will improve as the season wears on. He is landing three shots per game, which is fine volume, and that has led to four DraftKings shot bonuses on the campaign. He can contribute to fantasy production in ways other than goals and assists, and that’s important for his fantasy profile. A matchup against a poor Ducks team bodes well for his goals and assists, though.
This trio has just a 2.6% top-2 stack probability on DraftKings and 2.3% on FanDuel, but ownership is largely in check on both sites, coming in under 8% on DraftKings and 5% on FanDuel. It will be over-owned, but it is cheap and in a very good home matchup, providing a high-upside filler line to be used alongside more expensive stacks in tournaments.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
