We have just seven games in the NHL on this Tuesday night, making it a shorter DFS slate than normal. However, most of the matchups are lined relatively closely in Vegas, and that opens up the slate rather than forcing DFS players to consider a lot of chalky spots. As always, we encourage Stokastic members to check Discord for any last-minute roster updates before lock. Now, let’s dive into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks, using Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced simulation data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
Want our DFS Sims for FREE? Just sign up with one of our partners to unlock the best DFS tools! Here’s how:
- Choose a partner and register through our sign-up offer.
- Make a deposit, then place a bet or build a pick’em entry.
- Screenshot your welcome email and your first settled play.
- Email the screenshots to [email protected] and tell us which Sims sport you’d like access to.
That’s it — you’ll get a free month of Core DFS!
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Jack Hughes (NJ at FLA)
DraftKings Salary
$8,400
FanDuel Salary
$8,200
It has already been a tale of two seasons for Hughes. His first eight games produced just one goal and four assists, averaging 5.5 shot attempts per appearance. Across his last 10 games, Hughes has produced six goals and seven assists, averaging 7.5 shot attempts per contest. Those 10 recent games have seen him manage a DraftKings shot bonus in half of them, and he’s averaged 17.8 DraftKings points per contest. That includes high-end performances against very good defensive teams like the Vancouver Canucks and New York Islanders.
Going into Florida can be a tough matchup, but its top line has been struggling defensively to the tune of 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 3.1 actual goals against, both marks being much higher than the league average. The Panthers are also middle of the road by shots against per minute with a man in the penalty box, and the Devils’ top power play unit has eight goals in 33 minutes. If Florida isn’t on its penalty-killing game, this elite New Jersey power play can feast.
Hughes is carrying the third-highest fantasy point projection of any skater on either site, per Stokastic. However, even on a short seven-game slate, he is projected for 10% ownership on DraftKings and under 8% on FanDuel. At those reasonable ownership levels, he is a high-upside option for tournaments.
Pavel Zacha (BOS at STL)
DraftKings Salary
$3,500
FanDuel Salary
$4,300
Zacha has seen a large shift in his usage lately as he was moved to the top line to center superstar winger David Pastrnak, as well as moved to the team’s top power play unit. That has led to the new Boston top-line center averaging over 20 minutes per game in his last two games. Those were both overtime games, but Zacha skated more minutes than any of the Bruins’ other centers. It is a vital change for his fantasy profile because he averaged under 18 minutes per game across the 10 prior contests.
The matchup in St. Louis is a good one for Boston and Zacha. On the season, the Blues are 25th by shots allowed per minute and 27th by goals allowed per minute. That includes penalty kill struggles, ranking 21st by shots against per minute and 22nd by goals against per minute. Boston is drawing more power plays per game than any team in the league by a wide margin and get a weak penalty-killing roster tonight.
The improved usage and low prices are giving Zacha a fantasy point-per-$1,000 projection of 2.3 on DraftKings and 2.42 on FanDuel, per Stokastic projections. That is tremendous value, and he is carrying high ownership projections because of it – mid-teens on both sites – but it’s hard to ignore a salary-saving one-off carrying such a high projection.
Zacha is listed as a winger on FanDuel, so users on that site should consider Shane Pinto (OTT, $4,000) as he leads center projections for those priced under $5,000.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
William Nylander (TOR vs. OTT)
DraftKings Salary
$7,300
FanDuel Salary
$8,300
A big problem for Nylander’s fantasy value early in the season was (relatively) low ice time: He averaged 18:01 per game across his first 10 games. That was a decline of nearly two minutes per game from last season. However, with Toronto missing center Auston Matthews, it has been leaning on Nylander more, and he’s averaged 19:33 per game without the star center. After starting the season with one shot in two games, Nylander has averaged 3.78 shots per game in 14 appearances since, and that’s very close to his mark of 3.85 per game last season when he scored 40 goals.
Toronto’s power play is in a good spot tonight, even without Matthews. Ottawa is 27th by shots against per minute at four-on-five, landing at 24th by goals against per minute. Nylander’s power play unit has been averaging more shots and a lot more goals without Matthews, and Toronto is drawing the second-most power plays per game of any team on tonight’s slate (after Boston).
Of all wingers on the board tonight, Stokastic is projecting Nylander third by fantasy points on DraftKings, but he’s priced well outside the top 5 options. He makes a less expensive option with a high projection to target, whether in cash games or tournaments.
Nylander is listed as a center on FanDuel, so users on that site will want to look at Matthew Tkachuk (FLA, $7,000), who is also carrying the third-highest projection for wingers but at a reasonable cost.
Gabriel Vilardi (WPG at NYR)
DraftKings Salary
$4,800
FanDuel Salary
$5,600
As with Hughes earlier, it has been a tale of two seasons for Vilardi: He started the campaign with one goal and three assists in eight games, totaling just 10 shots. However, he has retained his top line/top power play status, and the patience paid off as he’s posted five goals and four assists in his last seven games, registering 22 shots. He has landed at least two shots on target in each of his last nine appearances as his shot attempt rate has improved 45% in that span. Vilardi is not a player who typically shoots a lot, but skating 18 to 19 minutes a game helps paper over a lack of per-minute volume.
Going into New York is a tough matchup because of goaltender Igor Shesterkin. He is once again a top goalie in the league, but the New York Rangers are struggling defensively, ranking 28th by shots against per minute at five-on-five and 29th by expected goals against per minute at all strengths. If Shesterkin isn’t performing as an elite goalie, the pucks can fly in because of the volume the skaters allow, and that brings Vilardi and the Jets into play.
Vilardi is carrying a top-10 fantasy projection among all wingers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. However, because of Shesterkin, ownership projections are low for Vilardi, coming in under 3% on both sites. He is the cheapest member of the top line and is shooting more, so he can be used as a one-off option but is best used as part of a stack because of its perfect correlation.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (SEA vs. CBJ)
DraftKings Salary
$3,700
FanDuel Salary
$5,400
Seattle likes to spread around the ice time, and that hurts the upside of its forwards because very few players can be relied upon for just 17 minutes a game. That applies to Bjorkstrand, who is averaging just 14:06 per game, but he is shooting so much that he has landed at least two shots on goal in 13 of his 14 games. He is pacing for 23 goals and 2.5 shots per contest in 82 games, and both those marks would be three-year highs. That is very solid production for his usage.
Hosting Columbus brings a good matchup for Seattle. The Blue Jackets are allowing nearly 3.5 goals against per 60 minutes, the fifth-worst mark in the league and the highest goals against rate of any team on tonight’s slate. A lack of ice time hurts Bjorkstrand, but the fact that he’s in such a good matchup and has very good shot rates are big pluses in his column.
Among wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Stokastic is projecting Bjorkstrand second and third, respectively, by fantasy points. However, his ownership projections are under 10% for both sites, so he’s a low-owned option with a great point-per-dollar value to target as a one-off option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Evan Bouchard (EDM vs. NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$6,400
FanDuel Salary
$6,400
In 15 games this season, Bouchard has 38 shots and 30 blocks, and very few defensemen can average at least two shots and two blocks per game. Those marks have given him two DraftKings shot bonuses and seven DraftKings block bonuses in his 15 appearances, accomplishing both in the same game once. Oddly enough, he’s been a bit unlucky with his shooting as 45.1% of his shot attempts last season turned into shots on goal. This season, that ratio is just 34.2%. If he were sitting at that 45% mark, he would have an additional 12 shots and register 3.3 shots per game. Once that improves – and it has started already – he will be even more of a shooting merchant.
Stokastic’s Data Central has the Oilers tied for the highest team goal total tonight at 3.5. Despite that high total, Bouchard’s ownership projection on DraftKings is eighth among all defensemen, rising to fourth on FanDuel. Fantasy players wanting to roster a blue liner with high upside but without as much ownership as some of the other top options should highlight Bouchard’s name.
Isaiah George (NYI at EDM)
DraftKings Salary
$2,700
FanDuel Salary
$3,600
Injuries have thinned out the New York Islanders’ blue line and that led to George’s call-up from the minor leagues. He didn’t play much in his first game but has averaged a whopping 24:03 across his last two appearances. He hasn’t gotten on the scoresheet yet, but he has one shot and five blocks in those recent two games, so he has been offering some fantasy points. Facing an Edmonton team that is taking the second-most shot attempts per minute of any team in the league should offer George plenty of opportunities to throw his body in front of the puck and rack up those shot blocks.
Because much of George’s value is tied up in shot blocking, he is more valuable at his price on DraftKings than on FanDuel. However, on DraftKings, he is seventh by fantasy point projection for any blue liner priced under $3,000, and that gives him solid value at a bargain price. He is a salary-saving rearguard to consider in any DFS lineup tonight.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Igor Shesterkin (NYR vs. WPG)
DraftKings Salary
$7,800
FanDuel Salary
$7,400
As mentioned in the section on Vilardi, New York is giving up a lot of shot volume. It has led to Shesterkin seeing more shots against per minute than any regular starter on tonight’s slate (at least 500 minutes played). However, he has also been one of the top goalies in the league with a .920 save percentage, and that’s led to some excellent fantasy performances: Half his games have resulted in at least 24 DraftKings points and 30 FanDuel points. The downside is that when he’s not on his game, the volume of shots against can lead to very poor performances – he has finished with negative fantasy points twice – so there is a double-edged sword here. However, he has been one of the top goalies in the league for years now, and if he can limit the damage against, he has a lot of upside whenever he steps on the ice.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Shesterkin projected for the highest save total tonight, which isn’t much of a surprise. He is also projected in the bottom half of goalies by goals against, so there is a nice gap between a high expected save total and a reasonable goals against total. That combination, with a moderate price, is giving him the second-highest fantasy points-per-dollar value of any goalie on both sites. It makes him a target in all DFS formats.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
FLA1: Evan Rodrigues – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Even if this line has struggled defensively to start the season, it has been tremendous offensively since the start of last season: In over 400 minutes together at five-on-five, the line has scored 5.3 goals per 60 minutes. Ice time totals have declined a bit compared to last season, but Reinhart and Barkov are still the two most used forwards Florida has across its last five games, and Reinhart earned over two more minutes per game than any forward on its second line. Relatively speaking, the usage is still solid, and it’s not as if it is priced as a line that is expected to skate 21 minutes a night.
New Jersey is in town, and while it has been very good, Florida is tied for the highest implied team goal total tonight at 3.5. This Florida top trio is likely to feature two of the team’s most-used forwards, they are both on the top power play unit and aren’t carrying an exorbitant cost. Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this line fourth by top-2 stack probability on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but with much lower projected ownership. That gives it good leverage in a game where the Panthers have a high goal total.
SEA1: Jared McCann – Matty Beniers – Jordan Eberle
While Seattle does spread the ice time around, these three Kraken forwards rank second, third and fourth by ice time per game over the team’s last 10 contests. This trio is being used as a top line, even if not as much as most other top lines across the league. All three also skate on the same power play unit, so while Seattle’s power play does struggle, it is perfectly correlated, and that matters for DFS. (NOTE: Beniers was moved to the second power play unit, so they’ve lost that correlation, but they should still get even amounts of ice time.)
Across the last two seasons, with this trio on the ice at five-on-five, Seattle is scoring 2.8 goals per 60 minutes. It is not great, but it is above average, and it’s nearly 45% higher than when it is not on the ice. It is Seattle’s best offensive unit, and as outlined in the section on Bjorkstrand, it is a good home matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are playing their third road game in four nights.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Seattle trio with a 6.1% top-2 stack probability on DraftKings and 6.9% on FanDuel. Ownership projections are between 5% 8%, so there is not much concern of it being over-used. It is a mid-priced stack to target in tournaments for DFS players looking in that price range.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
