Welcome everyone to the first big slate of the NHL season! There are nine games on the docket, including a showdown of two Eastern Conference contenders — the Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils — and two Western Conference contenders in the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
There are a few teams playing their second game in as many nights, which means some information may come late in the day, so Stokastic subscribers should hit up the Discord before lock for updated roster news before locking in any NHL DFS picks.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Bo Horvat (NYI vs. UTA)
DraftKings Salary
$6,500
FanDuel Salary
$7,200
It was a successful first full year in New York for Horvat as he managed 33 goals and 35 assists while posting over three shots per game. He and teammate Mathew Barzal found chemistry together as the team scored 3.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with those two on the ice, or about 31% better than the league average. Crucially, after head coach Patrick Roy was hired late in January, Horvat averaged over 20 minutes per game in ice time, a rise of nearly 40 seconds per game in ice time. He also averaged the most ice time per preseason game among all Islanders forwards.
Utah is in town for their second game of the season, and it presents a solid matchup for the Islanders. Utah won their first game, but it was at home against a poor Chicago Blackhawks roster, and they still gave up 11 high-danger shots against (league average last season was 11.8, so that’s a lot to allow to a basement team). Utah also gave up three power plays to Chicago, a problem persisting from last season when the then-Arizona Coyotes gave opponents the fifth-most power plays per game. That is good news for Horvat and his status on the top power play unit.
Among centers priced under $7,000 on DraftKings, Horvat ranks fourth by Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections. He is also fourth among all centers priced under $7,500 on FanDuel. He has perfect correlation with his line mates so he is also a tournament option, but DFS players will want to keep this Islanders, and this center, in mind.
Macklin Celebrini (SJ vs. STL)
DraftKings Salary
$3,000
FanDuel Salary
$6,400
Perhaps the most anticipated debut of the season is Celebrini’s, who went first overall in the 2024 Draft. Not all first-round picks are created equal, but Celebrini has the talent to be a Hall of Fame-level player. The prospect website Elite Prospects stated he is an elite two-way, dual-threat player in the style close to Chicago’s young superstar Connor Bedard, while a prospect model at Hockey Prospecting has his draft-year statistical comparable players including Auston Matthews and Patrick Kane. He is not only expected to be a franchise cornerstone for two decades, but one of the top players of his generation.
Even if he’s an 18-year-old rookie in the NHL, Celebrini is being given a prime role to succeed. He is skating on the top line with Tyler Toffoli, who has 67 goals in the last two seasons, and young forward William Eklund, who had 45 points last season, his first full year in the NHL. They are hosting a St. Louis team that finished 28th by high-danger shots against per minute in 2023-24 and gave up 21 such shots in their first game of this season. St. Louis is favored, but it speaks to how far the San Jose roster has to go after finishing last in the league a year ago.
To highlight just how much upside the young forward has, Celebrini’s projection on DraftKings is 9.47, compared to Tim Stutzle’s projection of 9.69, and Stutzle is more than twice as expensive. Celebrini is fine to use in any DraftKings format.
There is a huge chasm in Celebrini’s pricing between the two sites, so FanDuel players may want to consider Barrett Hayton (UTA, $4,400) who is on the top line and top power play unit for his team.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN vs. CBJ)
DraftKings Salary
$9,400
FanDuel Salary
$8,500
It was a huge 2023-24 season for Kaprizov as he managed 46 goals and 50 assists in 75 games and has an 82-game pace of 49 goals and 54 assists across the last three seasons. Skating over 21 minutes a night helped Kaprizov exceed 3.5 shots per game for the third straight season as well, allowing him to reach the DraftKings shot bonus in 32% of his appearances. Those huge minutes made him the only forward outside of the Colorado Avalanche roster to skate at least 72% of his team’s power play time and 35% of his team’s even strength time. He is one of the most talented offensive wingers in the world and gets the usage to back it up.
A big checkmark for Kaprizov tonight is his matchup. The Columbus Blue Jackets suffered another offseason tragedy with the death of Johnny Gaudreau, which, aside from the obvious off-ice impact, thins out the team’s product on the ice. On top of that, forwards Boone Jenner and Dmitri Voronkov are injured, so Columbus is effectively missing half of their top-6 forwards. Columbus finished 27th by high-danger shots allowed per minute in 2023-24 and 31st by goals against. There is a reason why Minnesota is the second-biggest favorite on the board.
Other than David Pastrnak, Kaprizov projects as the top fantasy point-producing winger on the board due to his profile and the matchup. Those reasons are likely why he’ll have high ownership as well, but it shouldn’t scare off DFS players from a tremendous home matchup for the superstar.
Timo Meier (NJ vs. TOR)
DraftKings Salary
$5,900
FanDuel Salary
$6,600
New Jersey started the season with two games in Europe, and it was a successful trip for Meier as he scored once on 10 shots, even adding three blocks along the way. Importantly, he’s not only skating on the top line alongside superstar Jack Hughes, but those two games saw Meier average 18:48 in ice time, including 19:24 in their second game. Up until the All-Star break last season, Meier averaged 16 minutes per game, so he wasn’t getting top line minutes. That jump in ice time alone could add a half shot per game to his profile, on top of whatever improvements he makes with his top-line billing.
The Devils are hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs, which isn’t an easy matchup, but Toronto played (and lost) last night in Montreal. Also, Toronto’s starting goalie Joseph Woll missed the game due to injury, and if he’s not ready to go, the Leafs will likely turn to a minor league netminder. Toronto finished 23rd in the league last season by goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded, and their lone goal given up in last night’s loss was on the penalty kill. All this bodes well for Meier’s top line/top power play role.
Of all wingers priced under $6,000 on DraftKings tonight, Meier ranks third by NHL DFS projections and has a point-per-$1,000 value over 2.0. He is fourth among wingers priced under $7,000 on FanDuel with a point-per-$1,000 value over 2.2. Meier projects well, at good value, on both sites, so he is an option both in cash games and as part of a tournament stack.
Rickard Rakell (PIT at DET)
DraftKings Salary
$3,600
FanDuel Salary
$4,900
It was an awful first game for Pittsburgh on Wednesday night as they got blown out 6-0. Rakell started the game on the second line but was moved to the top line alongside Sidney Crosby for the final two periods. If that holds – and we’ll find out in warmup – that means Rakell is on both the top line and top power play unit for Pittsburgh. Across the prior two seasons, Rakell averaged 9.2 shots per 60 minutes, an 81st percentile mark among regular forwards in the league. Having those top roles would mean averaging more ice time than he did last season, and that helps his shot volume.
While Pittsburgh is on a road back-to-back, they are facing a Detroit Red Wings team that finished 24th by goals allowed per 60 minutes last season and did not make any significant additions on the defensive side in the offseason. Over the last two seasons, Rakell has produced 33% more points at five-on-five playing next to Crosby than when he’s elsewhere in the lineup, and facing Detroit is not a difficult matchup for a team on a back-to-back.
Among all wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings tonight, Rakell ranks seventh by Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections. Among wingers priced under $5,000 on FanDuel, he ranks eighth. Be sure to check that he’s starting on the top line in warmups, but Rakell’s new role brings value at his DFS price.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Moritz Seider (DET vs. PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$5,300
FanDuel Salary
$6,300
On the other side of the Penguins-Red Wings game is Seider, a 23-year-old defenseman who has posted three straight 40-point seasons to start his career. The bonus to his game is that he blocks a lot of shots, finishing second in the category with 212 in the 2023-24 campaign. He has averaged 2.5 blocks per game over the last two seasons, reaching the DraftKings block bonus 35 times last year alone. He is not a big shot-volume option, hitting the DraftKings shot bonus just once in 2023-24, but he brings a lot of blocks, and that matters for his DFS value.
It is also important to note that he has been skating on Detroit’s top power play unit. Last season, the Red Wings finished eighth in the league by goals per 60 minutes on the power play, and Seider has received 40% of his career points with the man advantage. He is being put in a position to succeed offensively, and he can bring a lot of blocks to support his DFS floor.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Seider leading all DraftKings blue liners priced under $6,000, giving him a point-per-$1,000 mark over 2.0, which is very good. He is a mid-tier defense option to consider in DraftKings DFS lineups.
Over on FanDuel, blocks matter less to overall fantasy production, so players on that site might want to consider Justin Faulk (STL, $5,800) who projects slightly higher at a lower price.
UPDATE: At Detroit’s morning skate, they changed power play units and moved Seider to the second unit. It isn’t a death knell for his value, but it does hurt, so Miro Heiskanen (DAL, $5,400) can be used as a pivot.
Aaron Ekblad (FLA at OTT)
DraftKings Salary
$4,000
FanDuel Salary
$6,100
Florida won their first game of the season 6-4, but it wasn’t without a cost as defenseman Adam Boqvist took a puck to the face and had to leave the game. His status is still up in the air, but if he can’t play, Ekblad is expected to take over the team’s top power play unit. Last season, Florida’s power play finished ninth in the league by goals per 60 minutes while the team drew the sixth-most power plays per game. Ekblad was not on the top power play unit last season, but his prior two years saw him average 0.72 points per game when he did have a bigger power play role. That spot is important to his offensive upside, so he’s similar to Seider in that regard.
On DraftKings, Stokastic projections have Ekblad third among blue liners priced under $5,000 with a point-per-$1,000 value of 2.3. Both are tremendous marks, so as long as Boqvist misses the game, Ekblad is a cost-effective option in all formats.
Ekblad is a lot more expensive on FanDuel, so users on that site may want to look in the direction of Jordan Spence (LAK, $3,900) who has a point-per-$1,000 value over 2.0 as he sees a much bigger role due to Drew Doughty’s injury.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Ville Husso (DET vs. PIT)
DraftKings Salary
$7,700
FanDuel Salary
$6,500
As mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh is in a back-to-back situation, so Detroit is favored in this game. Also, the Penguins had a tough time scoring last season, finishing 19th by goals per minute despite managing the sixth-most shots per minute in the league. That discrepancy between high rate of shots but low rate of goals scored is good news for opposing goalies, and Husso tonight specifically. This was the case in Pittsburgh’s losing effort last night as they managed 29 shots on goal but were shut out.
Husso ranks fourth by goaltender projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. On DraftKings, he is the highest projected goalie priced under $8,200, and he’s mis-priced on FanDuel. That gives him good value on the former and great value on the latter. DFS players looking to avoid the ultra-expensive goalies on the board tonight will want to circle Husso’s name.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
BOS1: Pavel Zacha – Elias Lindholm – David Pastrnak
Boston lost their season opener and needed two late goals to make it a respectable score, but the top line still had a good offensive night. They managed two goals on 10 total shots while each player averaged between 19:20 and 20:20 in ice time. All three forwards skate on the top power play unit, and they did score once in that loss. Lindholm is a new addition to the team, but the Bruins scored 4.0 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season with Pastrnak and Zacha on the ice, which is an elite mark.
Tonight, the Bruins host the Montreal Canadiens, a historic rival but still a rebuilding team. The Canadiens won their season opener last night, but they needed a 48-save shutout from goaltender Sam Montembeault to secure the victory. Montreal gave up 23 high-danger shots against, nearly double the league average from last year. Boston is a huge home favorite for a reason, and the top line has a clear advantage in this matchup.
This line is among the top two lines on the NHL Top Stacks Tool tonight by top-2 stack probability. They are a heavy favorite, perfectly correlated and at a reasonable price, so they are likely to carry heavy ownership, but this is a great spot for this trio to succeed.
DET1: Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
This line was extremely productive at five-on-five last season, managing over 70 shot attempts, 35 shots and 4.5 goals per 60 minutes. For reference, those marks are similar to or higher than the top lines from Toronto and Dallas. It was a breakout season for Raymond, who finished with 31 goals and 72 points, while Larkin had 33 goals and 69 points in 68 games. For his part, DeBrincat’s points-per-minute increased a whopping 72% when he was skating alongside Larkin, as he did spend over half the season on different lines. DeBrincat may be lining up on the team’s second power play unit, and that’s unfortunate for correlation, but his five-on-five line is still tremendous.
The Detroit top line is among the top five lines by top-2 stack probability on the NHL Top Stacks Tool, and they are also reasonably priced. They won’t carry the same ownership levels of the Bruins and allow for another mid-priced stack or a high-priced defenseman, so they should be in tournament consideration for this slate.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
