We have a seven-game DFS slate in the NHL for this Tuesday, and the top stars from Edmonton, Colorado, Toronto, Tampa Bay and New Jersey have the night off. It means a lot of moderate pricing, which opens up the slate. As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Brock Nelson (NYI vs. ANA)
DraftKings Salary
$6,500
FanDuel Salary
$7,100
Despite being moved off the Islanders’ top power play unit for much of this season thus far, Nelson has still managed four goals in eight games while averaging 3.5 shots per game. He has 6 total points in those eight games, and none have come with the man advantage. That is important to note for tonight’s matchup because the Islanders have reunited their top power play unit from last season, and that means Nelson has been moved back to his usual power play role. That move could add about a minute per game of power play time, which is great news considering he’s already averaging a five-year high in ice time per appearance (18:42).
Another reason that change is crucial for tonight’s matchup against Anaheim is because the road team’s penalty kill is really struggling; Anaheim is giving up the most shot attempts and second-most shots on goal while short-handed in the league. Its actual goals against per minute sits 22nd, and it has its goaltenders to thank for that. If Anaheim’s goalie isn’t razor sharp on the penalty kill, this presents a great power play matchup for Nelson. The Ducks are 30th by high-danger shots against per minute at five-on-five, so it is a good offensive matchup across the board for our pivot. Â
Of all centers on the board tonight, Nelson is second by fantasy point projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel here at Stokastic. That high projection, great matchup, improved role and reasonable price are likely to make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but he should still be given consideration in all formats.
Josh Norris (OTT vs. STL)
DraftKings Salary
$4,800
FanDuel Salary
$6,300
Regardless of performance, opportunity matters a lot in any DFS sports and Norris is getting exactly that with 19:03 per game in ice time, the second most of any Ottawa forward. He has surpassed the 20-minute mark in half his appearances this season, and he needs that ice time because his shot attempt rate, on a per-minute basis, is that of a low-end third liner. Thankfully, he isn’t a player that typically thrives on volume anyway as his career shooting percentage is 17.4%, a rate that sits at 23.1% this season. If he can start shooting a bit more, he is a genuine 30-goal threat, and he already has three goals in eight games on the campaign.
Norris has also been the beneficiary of an improved line as Claude Giroux moved to his wing a couple weeks ago. In nearly 50 minutes with Ottawa’s new second line on the ice at five-on-five, the team is generating nearly 31% more high-danger shots than it was without Giroux. That is crucial when facing St. Louis, a team that ranks 27th in the league by high-danger shots allowed per minute at five-on-five. The Blues are also giving up the third-most high danger shots per minute while short-handed, and that is good news for Norris and the rest of the Senators’ top power play unit.
Among all centers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings, Norris is second by fantasy point projection. That strong projection and reasonable price should drive up his ownership, as with Nelson, but his usage and matchup still make him an option in all formats, along with his line mates.
Norris is listed as a winger on FanDuel, so users on that site will want to consider Sean Couturier (PHI, $4,600) who has a very strong projection for his price.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
David Pastrnak (BOS vs. PHI)
DraftKings Salary
$8,800
FanDuel Salary
$9,000
It is a double-edged sword for Pastrnak. On the one hand, he is top 10 in the league by shots per minute again this season, as is typical for him, and it’s led to 4.3 shots per game with a DraftKings shot bonus in over half (5) his appearances (9). He also has six goals in his nine games, and being on pace for a 55-goal season is about what we would expect from him. The bad news is that he has scored six of the 10 goals Boston has scored with him on the ice as his line mates are shooting under 6% combined. He hasn’t found much chemistry yet with offseason signee Elias Lindholm as the team is carrying just 30% of the high-danger shots with the duo on the ice at five-on-five, but Pastrnak is an all-world talent that is still finding a way to produce.
The better news is a matchup with Philadelphia. The Flyers are outside the top 10 teams by shots and high-danger shots allowed at five-on-five, and they are dead last in the NHL by team save percentage. Philadelphia goaltending struggled mightily over the final two months of last season and that has continued to start this season. The home team is also giving up the sixth-most power plays per game, which is another area where Pastrnak can feast tonight.
Despite not being the most expensive winger available, Pastrnak leads Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections on both sites at his position. Concerns about his line mates make him an expensive one-off option to circle, though he can be used in a Boston stack as well.
Travis Konecny (PHI at BOS)
DraftKings Salary
$6,300
FanDuel Salary
$7,700
On the other side of the Flyers/Bruins game is Konecny, who is off to a tremendous start with five goals and five assists in nine appearances, averaging 3.2 shots per contest. Crucially, Konecny already has 4 power play points, nearly halfway to his total from last season (9) before the end of the first month of the campaign. This is a player who was in the 90th percentile of regular forwards for five-on-five points per minute in his prior two years, but the team struggled to produce on the power play, and it kept his production lower than it should have been. Philadelphia’s power play isn’t elite, but it is about average, and that is a huge improvement from being a distant dead last a year ago. That is a huge boost to Konecny’s fantasy profile.
It is also important for this matchup against the Bruins. Boston is giving up the most power plays per game to the opponent this season (4.8), and that has led to nine power play goals allowed in nine games. This was a team that gave up the fourth-most power plays a season ago, so the parade to the penalty box is nothing new for it. Philadelphia adding Matvei Michkov to the lineup has given the team an offensive boost, particularly on the power play, and that’s great news for Konecny.
There are other wingers in Konecny’s price range projecting for more fantasy points, but he’s also carrying projected ownership rates of 4.1% on DraftKings and 1.6% on FanDuel. Given Boston’s penalty penchant and modest defense thus far, Konecny should be looked to as a mid-priced DFS tournament winger tonight.
Warren Foegele (LA at SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$3,400
FanDuel Salary
$5,400
This season, Foegele leads all Los Angeles forwards by shot rate at five-on-five. Despite not having a power play role, that has led to Foegele ranking second on the team in total shots (24) on the campaign. He has three goals in his nine games, which isn’t a surprise given he also leads the team by individual expected goals per minute at five-on-five, and Foegele’s five-on-five expected goals mark ranks in the 92nd percentile of regular forwards across the league; he’s a player that gets to the net and scores well from the net-front area. He has formed a great duo on the third line with Alex Laferriere as the Kings create 25% more high-danger shots than the league average with those two on the ice at five-on-five.
That five-on-five production is important tonight in this visit to San Jose. The Sharks were in Utah last night, so it’s a back-to-back for them. Also, San Jose is in the bottom 5 of the league by both shots and high-danger shots against per minute at five-on-five. These two teams faced off last week and Foegele scored twice on four shots. That is the high end of his upside, but this is a great matchup for him to add to his point production.
Among wingers on DraftKings tonight priced under $4,000, Foegele ranks second by fantasy point projection, and he also has an ownership projection under 5%. He makes an ideal salary-saving flank for DFS tournaments.
Foegele is much more expensive on FanDuel, so users on that site may want to investigate William Eklund (SJ, $5,400) who projects much higher at the same price and has a power play role.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Brandt Clarke (LA at SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$4,600
FanDuel Salary
$6,200
The worry about Clarke is his varied usage. He has nine games played and as many games under 16 minutes (2) as over 19 minutes (2). The good news is his shot attempt rate is in the 79th percentile of regular defensemen in the league, and he’s even managed 18 blocks in his nine appearances. That has led to three DraftKings block bonuses in those nine outings thus far, so this is a blue liner who can threaten both the shot and block bonuses, especially if he can get to the higher end of his ice-time usage.
It is the matchup with San Jose that is the clear appeal here. As mentioned in Foegele’s section, the Sharks are playing their second game of a back-to-back tonight. On top of the solid five-on-five matchup, it is a good power play matchup for the Kings as the Sharks are giving up the third-most power play opportunities per game to the opponent. That has led to 10 power play goals against in 10 games and it’s a boost for Clarke as he runs Los Angeles’s top power play quintet. In fact, four of his 7 points thus far are with the man advantage.
Clarke’s fantasy point projection on DraftKings tonight ranks fifth among defensemen with a salary under $5,000, and in this great matchup, he’s a blue liner DraftKings users should keep in mind.
On FanDuel, Clarke’s price is much higher, so for an option that is projecting much better at the same price, highlight Brandon Montour (SEA, $6,200).
Olen Zellweger (ANA at NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,100
FanDuel Salary
$4,200
Zellweger’s overall ice time this season is down a bit from his 26-game stint last year, but he has passed the 21-minute mark in three straight outings. He has one goal, 12 shots and four blocks in those three recent games, so he’s making the most of his improved opportunity. In fact, Zellweger’s overall shot attempt rate this season, on a per-minute basis, is in the 84th percentile of regular defensemen in the league. This is a highly touted prospect that leads Anaheim’s blue line by most play-driving metrics at five-on-five and is running its top power play unit.
Having that top power play role is important in this matchup. The Islanders don’t take many penalties – the lowest rate in the league – but like last season, they are really struggling to kill off the penalties they do take with four power play goals against on 13 penalties. Anaheim’s power play has generally struggled for a couple years now, but if his team can draw a few penalties, Zellweger has a solid matchup tonight.
Stokastic has Zellweger with fantasy points-per-$1,000 mark over 2.0 on DraftKings tonight, which is very good, and what we want to see in a cheap option. The value isn’t as strong on FanDuel, but he does have one of the highest fantasy point projections at his position and in his price range, so he’s acceptable on both sites.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Lukas Dostal (ANA at NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$7,100
FanDuel Salary
$6,800
It has been a tremendous start for Dostal as he’s posted a .936 save percentage in six starts. Though he’s just 24 years old, he already has 64 career starts across four seasons. His career save percentage in his four years is in the middle of the league, but Anaheim has also given up the most shots per minute in the league in that time. It means a lot of volume, and Dostal has faced nearly 34 shots per game thus far this season. That is why Stokastic’s Goalie Stats section has him as one of five goalies projected for at least 28 saves tonight.
Dostal is one of the top goalie prospects in the world and has posted three good seasons in the minor leagues. It doesn’t always translate to NHL success, but he’s been above average on a well-below-average team in his career appearances, and he gets an Islanders roster that is 24th in the league by goals per minute since its new coach was hired last January. It is a risky proposition because Anaheim still isn’t a good team, but if Dostal can keep it to three goals or fewer, he can be solid for very cheap tonight.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
MIN1: Kirill Kaprizov – Marco Rossi – Mats Zuccarello
To say Pittsburgh is struggling defensively would be an understatement. The Penguins are giving up the most shots and high-danger shots per minute at five-on-five, allowing the third-most goals. Those shots against rates are also in the bottom half of the league on the penalty kill, so this is a team really going through it in its end, and it has led to it giving up the second-most overall goals per minute (coincidentally, only better than its Pennsylvania neighbors in Philadelphia).
This line for Minnesota has been excellent offensively going back to last season, scoring four goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is an elite rate. Both Kaprizov and Zuccarello skate together on the team’s top power play unit, and they have combined for seven power play goals in eight games thus far, generating well over one shot per power play minute, which is a very high mark. This is a talented offensive trio that gets a great road matchup in Pittsburgh.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this Minnesota trio with the second-highest top 2 stack probability on both DraftKings and FanDuel with projected ownership at half that rate. It gives it good leverage and makes it a primary stack to keep in mind.
SEA1: Jared McCann – Matty Beniers – Jordan Eberle
Going back to last season, this Seattle unit has been one of the few productive lines the team has had by scoring 3.1 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in over 300 minutes together. Looking at just this season, McCann and Eberle have been very productive together, combining for 11 goals and nine assists in nine games thus far. As a bonus, all three forwards skate on the same Seattle power play unit, giving them perfect correlation.
Heading into Montreal is a great matchup for Seattle. Earlier, Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles were mentioned, and the only team that is in its neighborhood for poor defensive play is Montreal, ranking among the bottom two teams by all metrics at five-on-five. The home team’s penalty kill has been very good, but it is also giving up the ninth-most power plays per game, and volume matters.
Of all lines projected by the Top Stacks tool on DraftKings tonight, this Seattle trio is one of two lines that is priced under $16,000, has at least a 5% top-2 stack probability and an ownership projection at or below that mark. It makes it a mid-priced target that is in play for tournaments.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
