NHL DFS Picks Today: Cashing Connor Bedard (February 29)

It is another large slate as the NHL has 12 games on the docket this Thursday night. As is often the case when the league gets to this point of the season, there are a few very lopsided matchups so let’s navigate those and look to where we can go against the grain.

As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Lineup Decisions and More

NHL DFS Picks: Center

All that is important because Toronto hosts Arizona tonight and over the last eight weeks, the Coyotes are taking the second-most minor penalties per game in the league, giving up 18 power play goals against across 21 games in that span.

Toronto’s top line remains excellent, too. They sit at 3.2 expected goals-for/60 and 3.6 actual goals-for/60 in nearly 355 minutes together at 5-on-5. Arizona has improved their team defense over the last couple of months – 11^th in the league by expected goals against/60 – but the improvements have mostly been at the bottom of the lineup, and they are likely without top winger Clayton Keller tonight.

As expected, Matthews ranks second on the slate by fantasy point projection among all centers, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon. The difference is that Matthews’s ownership projection is nearly half that of MacKinnon DK, and less than half on FD. Fantasy players looking for a lower-owned, high-upside pivot from the chalkier MacKinnon have the option here.

They play at a high pace, too, as their shot attempts for+against at 5-on-5 are just shy of 140 per 60 minutes where the league average is just under 120. Since the All-Star break, Bedard is averaging 16:49 per game at 5-on-5, and that’s sixth among all forwards in the league, so he’ll get a lot of time in a high-event matchup.

Injury aside, it has been a superlative rookie season for Bedard by averaging three shots per game and having an 82-game pace of 31 goals and 42 assists. Chicago has also seen a big turnaround on the power play by adding Nick Foligno to the top unit as they’ve scored 11 times in just under 62 minutes when he’s on the top unit with Bedard. Of the 24 teams on this slate, Colorado is ninth by minor penalties taken per game over the last eight weeks.

Of the centers priced under $7,000 on either site, Bedard is third and first by fantasy point projections on DK and FD, respectively. He is expected to have very low ownership on DK, as that projection is at 1.6%, and even his 6% mark on FD is reasonable. He can be used as a one-off option in tournament formats.

NHL DFS Picks: Winger

They have given up 17 power play goals against in 21 games in those eight weeks and are allowing the fourth-most shots against per minute while short-handed. It is a great power play matchup for Tkachuk.

Florida has put Nick Cousins on Tkachuk’s line. He is a downgrade offensively on many options that have occupied that role this season, but the team is still generating 3.0 expected goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Cousins on that line. Facing a Montreal side that is giving up the fourth-most expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 over the last two months puts Tkachuk in a very good offensive position at all strengths.

Tkachuk has the highest fantasy point projection for any winger priced under $9,500 on DK tonight, and $10,000 on FD. That excellent value may lead to a lot of ownership on DraftKings, as that projection leads all wingers on the slate, but it’s under 10% on FD. Either way, it is a great matchup and great value for one of the top fantasy producers over the last couple of months.

In 13 games since their new coach took over, our winger has averaged 22:51 in ice time, a huge improvement to the 19:22 per game he averaged before that. It has helped Barzal manage 3.8 shots per game and register four DraftKings shot bonuses in that time with the new bench boss.

Detroit has been on a winning streak lately, but the team defense still is nothing to be feared. Over the team’s last 20 games at 5-on-5, they rank 27^th by shot attempts against/60 and 26^th by expected goals against/60. Outstanding goaltending has helped keep their goals against moderate, but they can’t rely on that every game, and it puts Barzal’s line in a positive matchup. That Detroit is 27^th by shots against/60 on the penalty kill in that span only helps Barzal’s DFS cause.

The wingers priced under $7,000 on DraftKings have Barzal at the top by fantasy point projections, giving him a point-per-$1,000 mark over 2.0. He also leads the way for flanks on FanDuel under $8,900, but unlike Tkachuk, he has low ownership expectations across the board – under 6% on DK and under 4% on FD. That makes he and his line mates tournament targets.  

On the season, 15 of Bunting’s 35 points have come on the power play, and he is second among Carolina’s wingers in points/60 with the man advantage. He has also been shooting a lot more of late with 35 shots in 11 games since the All-Star break.

A big part of Bunting’s uptick in shot rate has been his line’s performance at 5-on-5. In those 11 games since the break, his trio has helped the team generate 41.6 shots/60 and 3.2 expected goals/60. His line is Carolina’s only even-strength group to average over 30 shots/60 at 5-on-5 since the break, let alone 40. They did change the forward combinations towards the end of their most recent game, which is why we always say to double-check the Discord for updated information.  

Bunting’s points-per-$1,000 value is excellent across the board in this matchup, coming in at 2.5 on DK and a shade higher on FD. That excellent value could lead to high ownership levels – over 10% on both sites – but it’s hard to ignore an option this cheap in a matchup this good.

NHL DFS Picks: Defender

Injury problems for Tampa Bay have meant more ice time for Hedman of late as he’s averaged 25:43 per game in calendar 2024 compared to 24:09 before New Year’s. It has helped him to four DraftKings block bonuses in 23 games, where he had four in the first 36 games of the season. He has also been a point-per-game player in that span with 5 goals and 18 assists.

Hedman leads all DraftKings defensemen priced under $6,000 by fantasy point projections and it’s not even close, clearing the next-highest option by 13.5%. He also leads those on FanDuel priced under $8,000, so he’s fine to use on either site for tournaments tonight.  

Just since the All-Star break, he’s been on the ice for all six of the team’s power play goals and while San Jose doesn’t have a poor penalty kill, it is certainly not among the elite. That Fowler skates heavy minutes – over 24 per game since the break – is good news for his DFS value in this solid matchup.

Stokastic projections for Fowler on FanDuel have him leading the way for all blue liners priced under $5,000, and that gives him very good value. That value mark is lower on DK where peripherals matter more, but it’s also leaving him with an ownership projection under 5%. He is fine to use on either site in any tournament contest.

NHL DFS Picks: Goalie

Los Angeles does have a few key injuries, so maybe they struggle to generate shots as they normally do, but the injuries also take even more offensive upside out of the lineup which helps balance out any potential shot drop.  

The Stoakstic GoalieStats section has Demko saving the fifth-most shots of any goalie on the board tonight, but his expected goals against mark is the seventh-lowest. That gap mirrors what was outlined above, and it gives him a strong projection and value proposition on both sites for this slate.  

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NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

FLA1: Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart

In the section on Tkachuk, the excellent power play matchup for the Panthers was mentioned, and all three members of their top line are part of the top unit. That doesn’t get into how good this line has been at 5-on-5, either, by creating 3.2 expected goals/60 and 3.4 actual goals/60, controlling over 64% of the expected goal share. This line also plays heavy minutes, only getting light ice time totals when they are blowing out the opposition (such as in recent 4-0 and 9-2 wins). If they are blowing out Montreal tonight and only skate around 16 minutes, it’s a trade-off that DFS owners will make.

Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this Florida trio with the fourth-highest top-2 stack total on DraftKings, but they are expected to be the lowest-owned line of any trio priced $20,000 or higher. That gap gives them positive leverage and makes them a target in tournament formats. Their top-2 probability is even higher on FanDuel, so they’re an option on either site.

SJ1: Anthony Duclair – Mikael Granlund – Fabian Zetterlund

It isn’t often that the Sharks will make this column on a 12-game slate, but when facing a team like Anaheim – 28^th by expected goals against/60 and 31^st by actual goals against/60 over the last eight weeks – they cannot be ignored.

For as bad as San Jose is, this top line has been solid offensively by generating 2.4 expected goals and 2.8 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It is at least around/above league average in those respects, and we can’t ask for more than that from this roster. This trio also skates together on the team’s top power play unit and Anaheim has taken the third-most minor penalties per game over the last eight weeks, giving up 22 power play goals against in 21 contests.

At the opposite end of the leverage spectrum is this San Jose line, which is expected to have much higher ownership than top-2 stack probability. However, of all DraftKings lines priced under $13,000 tonight, they have the highest top-2 percentage of any line at 2.8% (no other line is 2% or higher). They will be in a lot of lineups, but justifiably so in this matchup.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick