There are 11 games on the board for our NHL DFS selections tonight, including a handful of matchups with a 6.5-goal total like the Edmonton Oilers visiting the Nashville Predators and the Buffalo Sabres visiting the Columbus Blue Jackets. Let’s go through the games to see where we can find strong projections or low ownership. As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for any breaking roster news. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Connor Bedard (CHI vs. SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$7,400
FanDuel Salary
$8,600
Despite Chicago scoring just 10 goals in four games to start the season, Bedard has figured in on half of the team’s tallies with a goal and four assists. He has registered 14 shots in those three contests, hitting the DraftKings shot bonus twice already. Getting winger Nick Foligno back on his line has helped as the Blackhawks have out-shot and out-chanced the opponent with those two on the ice so far in this young season. Chicago’s five-on-five goal rate last season was 21% higher when Bedard had Foligno on his line than when he didn’t, so the fact that they are generating more scoring chances and more goals this season as Bedard improves as a sophomore isn’t a surprise.
The obvious appeal here is the home matchup against San Jose. The Sharks, like the Blackhawks, are in the midst of a rebuild, and they will be without two top-line forwards in super-rookie Macklin Celebrini and William Eklund. San Jose’s porous defense picked up where it left off last season by allowing the most shots per minute so far in this young season, and that is the kind of matchup where Bedard can thrive.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Bedard sixth among all centers on DraftKings tonight and fifth over on FanDuel. His point-per-dollar values aren’t great, but they are just fine, and this is one of the few matchups where Chicago will be a significant home favorite. Bedard is an option in any format tonight.
Matty Beniers (SEA vs. PHI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,500
FanDuel Salary
$5,300
Two concerns have followed Beniers in his Seattle tenure: The fact that the team likes to split ice time somewhat evenly and that he doesn’t shoot much individually. As for the first part, he is skating 17:53 per game so far on the season, about even with where he was last year; considering his low DFS prices, that kind of ice time is acceptable. As for the second part, his early shot volume returns have been promising as his shot attempt rate is up 29% from where it was last season. He has yet to score, but his expected goals rate – which serves as a proxy for shot quality – has increased by 41%. There have been notable improvements early on, though we need more games before feeling certain about the changes.
Either way, tonight presents a solid matchup for Beniers. Philadelphia is playing its fourth road game in seven days to start the season while Seattle is a home favorite with just one game played in the last three days. He should also avoid the top-line matchup for the Flyers, and going back to last season, Philadelphia allows 34% more high-danger chances at five-on-five when its top-line wingers are off the ice. Â
Among all centers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel, Beniers has a top-10 fantasy point projection, per Stokastic. He has much better point-per-dollar value on the former than the latter but is acceptable to use on either site.
DFS players on FanDuel may want to consider Dylan Cozens (BUF, $5,300), as he’s easily the top option in Beniers’ price range by fantasy point projection and a much better point-per-dollar value.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Artemi Panarin (NYR at DET)
DraftKings Salary
$8,500
FanDuel Salary
$8,800
Panarin has picked up where he left off last season with two goals and 7 points through three games. He has just seven shots, but the note here is he is in the 93rd percentile of shot attempts per minute in his three contests. His issue is that he’s landed fewer than 32% of his attempts on goal, which is something that can happen in a small sample. Over the prior two seasons, he landed 47% of his attempts on goal, so if he were at his career norm, he’d have 10 to 11 shots in three games, which isn’t far off where he was last season on a per-game basis. Once that normalizes, the shot volume will rise and his DFS value along with it.
Going into Detroit presents a great matchup for the all-world winger. This season, the Red Wings are 28th by shot attempts allowed per minute, 29th by shots and 26th by high-danger attempts. They were in the bottom 10 of the league by all three of those measures a season ago, so this is not out of the ordinary for them. New York is a road favorite in a game with a 6.5 total, and Panarin stands to reap the fantasy rewards.
Of all wingers on the board tonight, Panarin ranks third by DraftKings fantasy point projections and second on FanDuel. It is about in line with his price, but he is also carrying lower ownership on both sites than comparable players Nikita Kucherov and Filip Forsberg. Panarin is fine to use either by himself or part of a Rangers stack in tournaments.
Adrian Kempe (LA at MTL)
DraftKings Salary
$6,900
FanDuel Salary
$7,800
Los Angeles played in, and lost in, Toronto last night, so this is a road back-to-back. Kempe skated a season-low 17:11 in ice time, but the game was out of hand early as the Kings were down 4-0 with half the game to go. His first three games saw him average 19:43 per contest, and that is closer to what we should expect for him. A player like Kempe – he is in the 93rd percentile of shot attempt rate since the start of last season – skating 19 to 20 minutes per game means he’s a threat to reach the DraftKings shot bonus each appearance; he reached that bonus mark 16 times in 77 games last year.
Kempe and the Kings visiting the Montreal Canadiens is the clear appeal to him tonight. Last season, Montreal finished 30th by shots against per minute and 31st by high-danger attempts against per minute. Through four games this season, it is second worst in the league by both measures. This is a poor defensive team that needs great goaltending to look average, and that is a matchup that Kempe can feast on. Just watch for any line changes at warmup because we won’t get a morning skate from the Kings and this team has lost back-to-back games while allowing 14 goals against.
Of the wingers priced under $8,000 on either site, Kempe ranks third by fantasy point projection tonight. His ownership projection is around 4% on DraftKings and 2% on FanDuel, so there will be very little usage on a volume shooter that is projected for over 19 minutes and has a great offensive matchup.
Stefan Noesen (NJ at OTT)
DraftKings Salary
$2,700
FanDuel Salary
$4,700
New Jersey made one significant deployment change recently as Noesen replaced Timo Meier on the top power play unit. It may seem an odd change given Meier’s scoring pedigree, but Noesen has proven himself a very effective power play option: Across the prior two seasons in Carolina, his expected goals-for impact on the power play was in the 90th percentile of power play forwards across the league, and his actual goals-for impact was in the 84th percentile. New Jersey’s power play started the season 2-for-19 before moving Noesen to the top unit, and it is 2-for-5 since the change. As a result, Noesen has averaged over 15 minutes a game compared in his last two games to 12:44 in his first four contests, and he has 6 points overall already.
A matchup with Ottawa’s penalty kill is a big reason why Noesen is on this list. The Senators have given up four power play goals against on 11 penalty kills this season. A year ago, they gave up the third-most goals against per minute while short-handed, so this is very much a continuation of an ongoing problem. Noesen is in a good spot to produce on the power play, and that includes New Jersey being a road favorite in a game with a 6.5 goal total.
Given the price discrepancy, Noesen is a much better option on DraftKings than FanDuel tonight. His DraftKings fantasy points per $1,000 tonight is nearly 2.3, making him one of the best cheap wingers on the board.
Over on FanDuel, DFS players may want to consider Jason Zucker (BUF, $4,400) who has a stronger projection than Noesen at a cheaper price.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Roman Josi (NSH vs. EDM)
DraftKings Salary
$7,900
FanDuel Salary
$7,400
Despite Nashville’s sluggish start, Josi has been a shooting machine for the Predators. He has already registered 15 shots on goal through three games, landing in the 90th percentile of all skaters (not just defensemen) by shots per minute. What is allowing him to rack up such monster shot volume is that he has skated at least 27 minutes in each of Nashville’s three games, and his 27:43 per contest is the most of any player in the league. He has just 1 point (an assist) in the three games, but there are a lot of signs of positive regression, including his personal shooting percentage, the team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice (it is half of his two-year average), and his involvement in Nashville’s goals (less than half his two-year average). Once that positive regression kicks in, if he keeps up this level of ice time, he’s likely the top DFS defenseman in the league.
It is expected given his price, but Josi is easily the top defenseman tonight by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections. He is projected 7.6% higher than the next-closest option on DraftKings and 8% higher on FanDuel. He is expensive, but he’s playing a lot of minutes and is in a game with a 6.5 goal total.
Owen Power (BUF at CBJ)
DraftKings Salary
$3,500
FanDuel Salary
$4,900
Buffalo is playing its second game in as many nights, but until last night, Power had skated at least 23 minutes in each of Buffalo’s contests. What is crucial for him is that he’s skating on Buffalo’s top power play unit, and that has led to him earning a 54% share of the power play time in his three most recent appearances. Last season, he earned just 34.8% of the power play time, so there is a clear improvement in his fantasy profile. That change is key for tonight as Columbus has already allowed three power play goals against in its three games, something that was a problem for it a season ago when it was in the bottom 10 of the league by power play goals against per minute. With Buffalo a road favorite in a game with a 6.5 total, there is a good opportunity for Power to have a productive night.
Power isn’t a player who provides high shot totals, but his role and price means his DraftKings points-per-$1,000 value is exceeding 2.0 tonight. Given the matchup and that role, Power is a cheap defenseman to consider for this slate, regardless of the site.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Sam Montembeault (MTL vs. LA)
DraftKings Salary
$6,900
FanDuel Salary
$7,400
Los Angeles is on a road back-to-back and playing its fifth road game in seven days. Though Montreal has struggled mightily defensively, that can be good news for Montembeault’s DFS value as it allows him to rack up the saves. He has done just that already this season, facing the third-most shots per minute of any regular goalie, saving over 94% of the shots faced thus far. That high level of shot volume led to Montembeault posting at least 10 DraftKings points in 29 of 40 starts last season and 13.5 DraftKings points in half of them. Montreal’s odds tonight, depending on the Sportsbook, are around 50%, and with all the shot volume Montembeault could face, there is good fantasy potential here.
Stokastic Goalie Stats have Montembeault projected for the most saves tonight of all 22 goalies, but 12th by expected goals against. That discrepancy and his cheap price make him the best point-per-dollar value goalie on the board. Any DFS player looking to save salary in net on either site will want to look in this direction.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
NYR1: Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafreniere
One of the top five-on-five lines from the 2023-24 season has picked up where it left off as the Rangers have scored four times in less than 44 minutes of ice time with Panarin and Lafrenière on the ice. While Lafreniere isn’t on the top power play unit with his two linemates, he is skating 18:34 per game through the team’s first three games. That is 1:18 more per game than last season when he had 28 goals and 57 points in the same role.
As mentioned in the section on Panarin, going into Detroit is a very good matchup offensively for New York and this line specifically. There is no defensive matchup that is of concern, the team is a favorite in a game with a 6.5 goal total, and this trio is first, second, and fourth for ice time among Rangers forwards.
Stokastic’s NHL Top Stacks Tool has this Rangers unit as 1 of 5 lines on both sites with a top-2 stack probability of at least 10%. Crucially, its expected ownership projection is under 5% on DraftKings and under 4% on FanDuel, so there is positive leverage, too. Given the great matchup, reasonable price, and relatively high top-2 stack percentage, this Rangers trio is a stack to consider for this slate.
CBJ1: Yegor Chinakhov – Sean Monahan – Kirill Marchenko
One of the pleasant surprises to start the 2024-25 season has been the Columbus top line. It is just three games, but they were games in Minnesota, in Colorado and at home to Florida. Those are not easy matchup, and yet at five-on-five, this Columbus trio outshot the opponent 31-8, carried the high-danger shot advantage 14-1 and outscored its opponents 4-0. All three forwards are averaging over 17:30 per game in ice time, and they have registered 27 total shots in their three contests. They are slight underdogs at home tonight, but the game also has a 6.5 goal total, so there are clearly goals expected on both sides.
The issue with this line being cheap, at home, possessing high ice time rates and in a game with a 6.5 total is that there’s a lot of expected ownership. Stokastic’s NHL Top Stacks Tool has it over 12% on DraftKings and over 8% on FanDuel. However, its pricing as a filler stack, despite being a top line, allows for a high-priced stack elsewhere that can dilute that ownership. Despite the high expected ownership, this Columbus line is still an option to save salary.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
