NHL DFS Picks Today: Be Wary of Resting Starters (April 13)

There are seven games in the NHL for this DFS slate, and there will be many important line changes. Both the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers played last night and are likely locked into their playoff position (though an Edmonton win over Vancouver would make it much closer). That means there’s a good chance we will see some key players resting tonight, and the same can be said of Toronto, who is a virtual lock for their playoff seed. There will be changes to lineups announced throughout the day, which is why we say to always double-check our NHL DFS Discord before lock for updates. Let’s dive into my NHL DFS picks today as I dish out my expert advice.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Lineup Decisions, Expert Advice & More

NHL DFS Picks Today: Center

Brincat’s availability is the difference between an 88th-percentile production rate and a 35th-percentile production rate. Larkin has also skated at least 20 minutes in five straight games while averaging 22:25 per night, so there is more ice time in his most productive formation.

Detroit is in Toronto tonight, and it’s not a bad special team matchup for the Red Wings. Over the last six weeks, the Leafs have taken 3.6 minor penalties per game, higher than the league average of 3.3. That span has seen Toronto rank 20th by shot attempts allowed per minute on the penalty kill while landing 24th by goals allowed per minute. Our center leads Detroit in both goals and shots per minute on the power play, so it’s a good chance for him to get on the scoresheet with the man advantage.  

Among all centers priced under $7,000 on DK and $9,000 on FD, Larkin ranks second and fourth by fantasy point projections, respectively. He is not priced among the top-four centers on either site, so there is good relative value. Larkin is in play as a one-off center or part of a Detroit stack for tournaments.

The Sharks can’t rely on their goaltending every night, and we need to look no further than the Sharks giving up at least four goals in 12 of 21 games across those six weeks for proof of that. Those are big reasons why Rossi is today’s ‘This Guy Plays Against The San Jose Sharks’.

Another big reason is Rossi’s improved role. Minnesota winger Mats Zuccarello missed last night’s game due to a personal reason. In his place, Rossi took a spot on the top power-play unit, and, assuming Zuccarello isn’t rushing back from whatever that personal issue is, Rossi should be there again tonight. He isn’t playing with the team’s top stars at 5-on-5, but he is on the power play, and that is great news when facing a penalty kill as porous as the one San Jose offers.

Fantasy point projections have Rossi a shade under 2 fantasy points per $1,000 tonight on DK (1.97) and a shade over 2 on FD (2.04). The value is fine on both sites, he has a great matchup, and his improved role makes him a cheap one-off option in tournament formats.

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NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger

Helping that floor is the fact that the 20-game span has seen Tkachuk skate an average of 20:08 per game, over two minutes higher than the 20 games prior (18:05). More ice time for a volume shooter is great for DFS.

The matchup tonight with Montreal is a good one for our winger. Over the last six weeks, Montreal’s top line has averaged 3.6 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, allowing 3.4 actual goals against. The Canadiens are also taking 4.2 minor penalties per game in that stretch, which is third-most in the league and second-most of the teams on this slate. Tkachuk should get plenty of opportunities to get on the board with the power play.

Stokastic’s fantasy point projections have four wingers with a projection of at least 18 on DK and 21 on FD tonight. Of those four wingers, Tkachuk is the cheapest, which gives him good value among his cohorts. However, that great value means ownership projections in excess of 24% on both sites, so tournament players will have a decision to make about how much ownership is too much.

All this has led to Anaheim allowing a preposterous 31 power-play goals against over their last 21 games, by far the most in the league in that span (no other team has allowed more than 20). Arvidsson has yet to score on the power play in his 15 games this season, but he is on the top unit, which matters a lot in this matchup.

Beyond the power play, this is a good matchup at 5-on-5 for our winger. Anaheim played last night, so Los Angeles has the rest advantage. The Ducks are also 21st and 22nd in the league by expected goals against and actual goals against rate at 5-on-5, respectively, over the last six weeks. Arvidsson has skated just 75 minutes at 5-on-5 with winger Trevor Moore this season, but Los Angeles has outshot the opposition 47-37 in that time while scoring eight goals. It gives this flank a great matchup at all offensive strengths.

Arvidsson leads all wingers priced under $6,000 on DK and $7,000 on FD by fantasy point projections tonight. He is a great value option, but the ownership projections are much lower than those of Tkachuk’s, ranging between 10-12% on the two sites. That makes him appealing for tournaments, whether by himself or in a stack.

As a result of the Predators’ situation, what would normally be a tough road matchup for the Blue Jackets may not be as daunting, and it brings Voronkov into play for us. He has meshed very well with winger Johnny Gaudreau at 5-on-5 this season as the team is creating 34.8 shots, 3.1 expected goals, and 3.8 actual goals per 60 minutes in nearly 110 minutes together. Voronkov leads Columbus by shots per minute over the last six weeks, should have a top-line role tonight, and is still on the team’s top PP unit. That is good usage at his price, and his matchup could be easier than anticipated depending on what his opponent decides to do with their roster.

Voronkov’s points-per-$1,000 value on DK tonight is over 2.2 and approaches 2.4 on FD. There is very good value on a cheap option on both sites, which makes him and his line -mates targets, especially if Nashville rests some tarters.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Defender

Those factors have led to 28 DK block bonuses for McAvoy, which helps his DFS floor. We need more than blocked shots for McAvoy to bring good value, but he skates 45% of his 5-on-5 time with star forward David Pastrňák and is holding down the team’s top power-play unit.

Ownership may change depending on who is or is not playing tonight in other games, but right now McAvoy’s ownership projection is under 10% on DK and under 6% on FD. He makes a nice pivot option in case key blue-liners rest elsewhere.

Helping Barrie’s upside on the man advantage is facing a Columbus team that is 29th by shots against per minute on the penalty kill over the last six weeks.

There are no projections for Barrie tonight because we don’t know who is or is not in the lineup for Nashville. Assuming Barrie plays, he will be an important puck-moving defenseman for the team and could have very low ownership as that news will be announced late in the day. His price is particularly appealing on FanDuel, too.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie

More 5-on-5 shots gives Cooley a chance to put up another very good DFS performance. As always, check to see which goalie is actually starting, but Cooley saved 49 of 50 shots on Thursday night, so the team may reward him with another start. Even if it is MacKenzie Blackwood rather than Cooley, either goalie is fine in this matchup.

Cooley is a cheap pivot away from goalie Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $6,500), who is a minimum price on DK tonight and carries a strong projection. San Jose’s goalies have a DK fantasy point projection over 10, and that exceeds 13 on FD, so there is good value here due to the cheap price points.

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NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

LA1: Quinton Byfield – Anže Kopitar – Adrian Kempe

As mentioned in the section on Arvidsson, this is a tremendous matchup for the Los Angeles power play, and both Kopitar and Kempe skate on the team’s top PP unit. With Arvidsson on the power play, the Kings have scored eight times in fewer than 44 minutes together, so they have been very productive in a limited sample.

Though Byfield has seen his role reduced of late, averaging 14:01 per game across his last five appearances, he is still in the middle of the team by shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5 in that span. He is also much cheaper now on DK than he was just a few weeks ago with a price drop of $1,200 over the last 16 days.

Of all lines on the board tonight, this Kings trio has the second-highest top-2 stack percentage of those priced under $17,000 at 6.2%, per the Top Stacks tool. Of the lines in that group with a top-2 percentage of at least 5%, they are also carrying the lowest projected ownership total. They make a solid mid-priced line to consider in tournaments.  

VAN2: Pius Suter – JT Miller – Brock Boeser

This Vancouver trio has been the best iteration of their second line as their 176 minutes together at 5-on-5 has resulted in rates of 34.5 shots, 3.7 expected goals, and 4.8 actual goals per 60 minutes. Going into Edmonton isn’t usually a great matchup, especially under their new coach, but the Oilers find themselves in the same situation as Nashville: they played last night, have clinched a spot in the postseason, and are likely locked into their playoff seed.

Connor McDavid has missed the last two games with a genuine injury and Edmonton is almost certainly going to sit some other key players. It could make what is normally a below-average matchup into an advantageous one, and this great offensive line for the Canucks stands to reap the benefits.

This Vancouver trio has a lower top-2 stack percentage than the Los Angeles line named above, but they’re also carrying much less ownership. They are another mid-priced stack to consider tonight.

*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick