The NHL’s Frozen Frenzy is tonight, which means all 32 teams are in play with all 16 games starting 15 minutes apart. A few of those games start earlier than usual, so it’s a 13-game DFS slate, and that means lots of options to pick through for NHL DFS picks.
With such a large slate, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for roster updates. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at SEA)
DraftKings Salary
$9,800
FanDuel Salary
$9,300
Despite shaky goaltending leading to a poor start to Colorado’s season, MacKinnon has been off to a tremendous start offensively with two goals, nine assists and 25 shots in six games. Though he usually plays heavy minutes anyway, this center averaged 23:06 in ice time across his first five games before a 20-minute effort against the basement-quality San Jose Sharks. He might even be getting short-changed some shots on goal as he typically lands about 58.4% of his shot attempts on target, per his two-year average; that number is closer to 52% in 2024-25. If (when) that normalizes, he’ll improve his already-stout 4.2 shots per game.
Colorado’s current top line has only been together for about 2.5 games, but it has been supernova-like at five-on-five thus far by outshooting the opposition 28-14, carrying the high-danger shot differential 19-5 and outscoring it 3-1. Two of those games were against likely non-playoff teams, and Seattle is better defensively at five-on-five, but the home team has also been a poor penalty-killing squad: The Kraken have given up four power play goals against in six games while allowing the fifth-most shots per minute on the penalty kill. Unless they improve immediately, it makes a great power play matchup for MacKinnon.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have MacKinnon well in front of anyone else, clearing the second-highest option on DraftKings by 18.8% and the second-highest option on FanDuel by 17.8%. He is also projected for double-digit ownership rates on both sites, but on such a large slate, it isn’t a big concern, and MacKinnon is a top option in all types of DFS contests. Â
Adam Fantilli (CBJ vs. TOR)
DraftKings Salary
$4,400
FanDuel Salary
$5,800
Considering all the injuries and losses endured by Columbus, and the fact that Fantilli spent the first four games of this season off the top power play unit, that he has two goals and 12 shots in five games is a solid-if-unspectacular start. A big key for him is that power play role, though, and he was moved to the Blue Jackets’ top power play quintet in their loss on Saturday night. It helped him to a whopping 22:04 in ice time, his third straight game managing at least 17:45 in ice time after not surpassing the 17-minute mark in either of his first two appearances. He is starting to earn a much bigger role on the team, and he has one goal and eight shots in those recent three appearances.
Also important for Fantilli is winger Yegor Chinakhov being moved to his line. Among Blue Jackets on the current roster, Chinakhov leads the team by both goals and assists per 60 minutes since the start of last season. It gives Fantilli a talented scoring winger to play with at even strength on top of his improved power play role. Columbus is a big underdog at home tonight, but it is facing a Toronto team playing its second game in as many nights and turning to an AHL goalie in net. The game has a 6.5 goal total, so there are goals expected from the Blue Jackets tonight.
Of all centers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Fantilli ranks second by fantasy point projections for tonight’s slate. With a bigger role and improved usage, Fantilli is in consideration for a mid-priced pivot tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Artemi Panarin (NYR at MTL)
DraftKings Salary
$9,100
FanDuel Salary
$8,900
Panarin was in this column last Thursday, and in that column, it was pointed out that, at the time, he was landing just 32% of his shot attempts on goal, compared to a 47% two-year average. In the two games since, he landed 9 of 16 shot attempts on goal and that brings his season ratio up to 42%. There is still some regression to go, and he’s averaged 3.3 shots per game as it is, so he should be considered a winger that can manage at least 3.5 shots per game. That is very important for his DFS floor considering he posted a DraftKings shot bonus in 22 of 82 games last season while averaging 3.7 shots per appearance.
New York’s top line has continued its excellent five-on-five production from last season by managing 36 shots and five goals in 66:46 of ice time together. There are questions as to whether winger Alexis Lafrenière will play tonight because he missed Monday’s practice, but the team put Matt Rempe in Lafrenière’s place in practice, and Rempe is a fourth-line fighter who plays five to six minutes per game, if he dresses at all; that is not the type of player who would take that scoring role.
At five-on-five, Montreal is last by shots allowed, 30th by high-danger shots allowed and 27th by goals against per minute, so this is a tremendous matchup for Panarin to continue his scorching start.
Among wingers on either site tonight, Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Panarin as the third highest on DraftKings and second highest on FanDuel. His steep salary on both sites is keeping his projected ownership rates down, settling in the 4% to 6% range on both sites. In this tremendous matchup, Panarin should be considered one of the premiere wingers on the board.
Drake Batherson (OTT at UTA)
DraftKings Salary
$5,000
FanDuel Salary
$6,100
Much like Fantilli earlier, Batherson has seen his role grow as the season has worn on; he skated under 16 minutes in each of his first two contests before surpassing 16:30 in each of his last three appearances, averaging 18:43 per game in that span. That is good news for his DFS floor as his shot attempt rate is slightly higher than last season, so he’s a threat for the DraftKings shot bonus thanks to the additional minutes. Winger Claude Giroux has joined his line, which is also good news, as the advanced stats website HockeyViz has Giroux as still performing like a top-line forward offensively. It gives Batherson a capable winger with whom to create scoring chances at five-on-five.
There are two appealing aspects to this matchup for Batherson. The first is that he is skating on the team’s top power play unit, and Utah is fourth in the league in power play opportunities given to the opponent per game this season. We don’t want to rely on a six-game sample, but this franchise gave up the fifth-most power play opportunities last season and the most opportunities the year before, so it’s just a continuation of its well-established undisciplined play.
The second part of the appeal is that this game has a 6.5 goal total and Ottawa is only a slight underdog to Utah. There are goals expected on both sides, and with Batherson’s improving usage and top power play role, there is a lot to like in this matchup.
Despite the 6.5 total and Ottawa only being a small underdog, there is little ownership on the team as no skater is projected above 8% on DraftKings or above 6% on FanDuel. That includes Batherson, so this is a low-owned option in a game expected to feature a lot of goals tonight.
Tyler Seguin (DAL at BUF)
DraftKings Salary
$3,200
FanDuel Salary
$5,500
This recommendation will depend on the injury news that comes throughout the day. Seguin has missed three games with a lower-body injury, but he is travelling with the team to Buffalo and he practiced on both his even-strength and power play lines in practice on Monday. That would indicate that he’s ready to return, but it’s not official until either the coach says so, or he’s on the ice for warmup.
Going back to last season, Seguin’s line has been excellent at five-on-five, scoring 3.8 goals per 60 minutes. In a limited sample this season, it is generating as many shots per minute as last year, so it seems it is picking up where it left off. Also, Dallas is a team that likes to somewhat split its power play units as the top unit is earning roughly 56% of the power play time this season, so Seguin’s unit is getting about 44% of the ice time. It isn’t heavy usage, but getting over two minutes of power play time per game is good news for his DFS value.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Seguin approaching 2.2 points per $1,000, which is excellent value. Double-check to make sure he returns to the lineup, but he is a salary-saving option on the wing.
Seguin is much more expensive on FanDuel, and it is crushing his point-per-$1,000 value. For a better option, DFS players on that site should consider Bobby McMann (TOR, $4,100) who leads fantasy point projections among all wingers priced under $5,000.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Josh Morrissey (WPG at STL)
DraftKings Salary
$6,300
FanDuel Salary
$7,600
Morrissey is off to an excellent start this season with one goal, six assists, 10 shots and 13 blocks in five games. Much like Panarin and MacKinnon earlier, it is fair to wonder if Morrissey is being short-changed some shots on goal as he’s landed just 32.2% of his shots on goal this season compared to 43.7% across his prior two seasons. That would mean an extra three or four shots this season, so if he can keep up his shot attempt rate, he can exceed 2.5 shots per game, which would be higher than what he did a year ago (2.4).
Winnipeg is in St. Louis, and this could prove a good offensive matchup for the road team. In six games this season, St. Louis is 26th by shots against and 29th by high-danger shot attempts against per minute at five-on-five. Were it not for excellent goaltending, the Blues’ goals against marks would be considerably worse than near the middle of the league. If the St. Louis team defense doesn’t improve or the goalies falter, the goals will start flying in.
Morrissey is carrying a point-per-$1,000 projection of 1.67 on DraftKings tonight. There are a handful of top defense options with similar point-per-$1,000 values including Cale Makar (1.48), MacKenzie Weegar (1.72) and Zach Werenski (1.77). The difference is those three names are projected for ownership rates between 6% and 16% on DraftKings, whereas Morrissey is under 2%. For a high-upside, low-owned defensemen in tournaments, consider Winnipeg’s top blue liner.
Considering Morrissey is the second-most expensive option on FanDuel, users on that site should consider Shea Theodore (VGK, $6,700) as a pivot option as his fantasy points project slightly higher at a cheaper price with 3% expected ownership.
Jackson LaCombe (ANA vs. SJ)
DraftKings Salary
$2,600
FanDuel Salary
$3,900
LaCombe returned to the Anaheim lineup over the weekend after missing the early portion of the season with an illness. He was immediately slotted onto the second power play unit but ended up skating just a handful of seconds less than the defenseman on the top power play unit. In the preseason, LaCombe was running one of the team’s power play units and averaged the most ice time by over four minutes per game. He only skated 18 minutes in his regular season opener, but that could very well be just getting him up to speed after missing so much time, and he’s getting power play usage.
Though LaCombe isn’t a volume shooter, he did manage 129 blocks in 71 games last season, reaching the DraftKings block bonus in 17/71 appearances. As long as his ice time is in the 20-minute neighborhood, he’s a candidate for the DraftKings block bonus every time he steps on the ice.
Be sure to double-check rosters because Anaheim had seven defensemen in practice yesterday, but LaCombe should suit up and is a salary-saving blue liner to consider tonight given his role and the superb matchup.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Ilya Sorokin (NYI vs. DET)
DraftKings Salary
$8,100
FanDuel Salary
$8,800
Sorokin has come out of the gate looking like the Sorokin of pre-2023 by stopping 61 of 64 shots through two starts. He had a down season in 2023-24, but in the three seasons from 2020 to 2023, he was third among 35 regular starters with a .919 save percentage. Since the start of that 2020 season, he trails only Igor Shesterkin by goals saved above expected per minute. Even with a down campaign last season, he has generally been one of the top goalies in the world for half a decade now, and the early portions of the 2024-25 schedule have reminded us of that fact.
Stokastic’s Goalie Stats have Sorokin with the sixth-highest expected save total tonight but the eighth-lowest expected goals against total. That disparity among the 26 goalies is good news for DFS, and it’s why his fantasy point projection is third among all goalies on DraftKings tonight and fourth on FanDuel. His point-per-dollar value is stronger on DraftKings where saves matter more, and he’s relatively cheaper, but he is fine to use in net on either site tonight.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
EDM1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Edmonton is off to a slow start this season, but it’s worth pointing out that it is shooting 6.3% as a team; it shot 10.5% as a team last season and 11.7% the year before. Speaking of last season, in 2023-24 the Oilers shot 7.7% through the first four weeks of their schedule and then shot 11% the rest of the way. We have seen this team do this before, and it is too talented to remain this quiet for too long.
Staying with the last two seasons, this Oilers trio was one of the top five-on-five lines in the league, scoring 4.5 goals per 60 minutes in 675 minutes together. All three members of this line are averaging between 19 and 22 minutes per contest this season, and all three members of this line are on the team’s top power play unit. They are exceptionally talented with a long history of success, so it’s a matter of if, not when, they start filling the net. Though Carolina is a tough matchup, this game has a 6.5 goal total and Edmonton is favored. It is expected to score tonight.
Stokastic’s NHL Top Stacks Tool has four lines projected with at least a 10% top-2 stack probability on DraftKings tonight, and this Edmonton line is one of them. It is also carrying the lowest expected ownership of those top four lines, so it is a primary stack to consider for tournaments. Its relative ownership is slightly higher on FanDuel, but it is still very much in play on that site. Â
PIT2: Rickard Rakell – Evgeni Malkin – Michael Bunting
In a limited sample, this line has been successful offensively this season by generating 17.1 high-danger shot attempts and 4.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Both marks are well above average, and while we don’t want to rely on a sample of under 50 minutes, it was similarly successful towards the end of last season by generating 14.1 high-danger shot attempts and 4.7 goals per 60 minutes. Whether the final six weeks of last season or the first two weeks of this season, Pittsburgh’s second line has been in a groove offensively. That applies especially to Malkin, who has 11 points in seven games to start this campaign.
This Pittsburgh line is carrying the lowest expected ownership rate for any DraftKings line priced under $14,000 but with a top-2 stack probability greater than 1%, per the NHL Top Stacks Tool. On FanDuel, its top-2 stack probability (1.6%) is higher than its expected ownership (1.5%), so it is very much in play as a secondary stack on both sites.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
