We have a nine-game Saturday night NHL DFS slate ahead of us and a lot of close matchups as there is only one lop-sided game expected between the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders. As always, Stokastic members should double-check the Discord before lock for breaking lineup news. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Jack Hughes (NJ vs. WSH)
DraftKings Salary
$8,200
FanDuel Salary
$8,500
It has been a bit of a slow start to the season for Hughes with just one goal and five points through seven games, and 19 shots on target. The good news is that he’s still skating over 20 minutes per game on average, and he’s in line for a lot of positive regression: His individual shooting percentage is just 5.3% against a three-year average of 12.4%. He has also been involved in just 62.5% of New Jersey goals scored with him on the ice against a three-year average of 77.9%. Just being around career norms in these two areas would have him as a point-per-game player, and there are other signs of positive regression elsewhere, so things will get a lot better.
The other bit of news was winger Timo Meier being moved off Hughes’s line. Meier is a great player, but this may be a good thing for Hughes’s production: Since Meier’s arrival in New Jersey a couple seasons ago, Hughes has produced a much higher shot rate per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 without Meier on his line (11.2) than with him (9.2). The team also scores more often at 5-on-5 when Hughes is on the ice without Meier (3.2 per 60 minutes) than with him (2.8). This is a case where even though both are great players, but there is only one puck to shoot and both are among the heaviest volume shooters in the league. The change could make both better off offensively.
Stokastic projections have Hughes leading all centers in fantasy points on both sites even though he’s not the most expensive center on the board. His ownership projection is lower on FD (9.9%) than on DK (15.1%) but he is fine to play by himself or in a tournament stack given his solid point-per-dollar value.
Dylan Cozens (BUF at CHI)
DraftKings Salary
$4,800
FanDuel Salary
$5,100
Of all the snake-bit players in the league, there may be none more so than Cozens, who has failed to score in his six games despite a team-high 22 shots on net. It isn’t as if he’s wasting shots from bad areas, either, as his individual expected goals rate per minute – one way to help determine shot quality – also leads Buffalo in this regard. He remains on the Sabres’ top power play unit and is averaging 18:34 per game in ice time, third among all their forwards and most for anyone not on the top even strength line.
Going into Chicago is a matchup where Buffalo, and specifically Cozens, can take advantage of how the Blackhawks match their lines. The home team usually sends out the Jason Dickinson line against opposing top lines, so Cozens won’t see much of him tonight. That is good news because so far this season, Chicago has given up 39% more shot attempts and over double the expected goals against at 5-on-5 with the Dickinson line off the ice. Since the start of last season, Chicago has allowed 2.0 goals per 60 minutes with the Dickinson line on the ice, and 3.3 goals per 60 minutes with them off the ice. Avoiding that matchup, with Buffalo being a road favorite, is great news for Cozens’s offensive potential.
Among all centers priced under $5,000 on DK or $6,000 on FD, Cozens is leading Stokastic’s fantasy point projections. Despite point-per-$1,000 values over 2.0 on both sites, Cozens’s ownership projections are under 5%. He makes a fine target as a mid-priced, one-off center.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
Matt Boldy (MIN at CBJ)
DraftKings Salary
$7,400
FanDuel Salary
$8,800
The injury news just won’t stop for Columbus as winger Kent Johnson, who was off to a great start with five points in four games, is expected to miss significant time for the team. Top-line winger Yegor Chinakhov appears to be a game-time decision, too, and they’re already without Boone Jenner and Dmitri Voronkov. In addition to the offseason tragedy, Columbus may be missing over half of their top-9 forwards for tonight’s game. Despite a good start to the season, especially for a team expected to be at the bottom of the league again, there are only so many missing players a team can endure.
For Minnesota and Boldy, it gives them a great matchup. As with Chicago earlier, Columbus is giving up a lot more shots and expected goals against at 5-on-5 with their shutdown line off the ice. Boldy will avoid that matchup, and it’s very good news for a player skating 20:41 per game thus far, topping 18 minutes in each of his four appearances. On top of all that, Columbus had a bottom-10 penalty kill last season by every conceivable measure, something that has continued to the early portions of this season. Minnesota is a big road favorite in a game with a 6.5 goal total, so Boldy is in a position to succeed.
Boldy’s fantasy point projection on Stokastic is third among all wingers for either DraftKings or FanDuel. His low price on the latter site means he’s carrying very high ownership projections there (22.9%), but is much more reasonable on the former (13%). He is fine anywhere, but DK users may want to pay special attention.
Chris Kreider (NYR at TOR)
DraftKings Salary
$6,000
FanDuel Salary
$7,900
It has been years since Kreider’s line has had a right winger that’s helped them push the pace offensively. Though it’s been just four games, Reilly Smith has helped do that for their line as the team is generating 33.9 shots and 17.9 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Over the prior two seasons, those numbers were 32.7 and 13.1. For his part, Kreider has three goals on 12 shots in his four appearances, scoring once on the power play. For a player who has averaged 43 goals per 82 games across his three prior seasons, this is a typical start for him.
The additional bonus for Kreider tonight is the power play matchup against Toronto. Last season, the Maple Leafs finished in the bottom-10 of the league by shots and goals against per minute with a man in the penalty box. Things are a bit better this season, but still around the middle of the league. This isn’t a fearsome penalty kill, and New York’s top power play unit – arguably the best non-Edmonton Oilers power play for a few years now – is off to a tremendous start this season with five PP goals in four games. Their shooting percentage is running hot, but they’re also generating nearly 170 shot attempts per 60 minutes, which is an obscenely high shooting rate. Kreider leads the team in power play goals per minute since the start of last season, and is in a good spot to add to it tonight.
Kreider’s fantasy point projection isn’t strong on either site given his road matchup and modest ice time, but his ownership projections are extremely low at 1.6% on DK and under 1% on FD. The game has a 6.5 total and New York is only a slight underdog, so tournament players will want to consider Kreider and his line mates.
Where Kreider is much more expensive on FD than DK, users on that site may want to consider Owen Tippett (PHI, $6,300) who has a much higher projection at a cheaper price, and is under 5% projected ownership.
Maxim Tsyplakov (NYI vs. MTL)
DraftKings Salary
$3,400
FanDuel Salary
$4,600
Even as a rookie free agent signee in the offseason, it has been a good start for Tsyplakov with a goal and an assist through four games. He has skated at least 17 minutes in three of the four games, and the one he didn’t was a game where New York built a large lead early and spread the ice time around evenly. A big reason why he’s had a consistent role is his line is playing very well at 5-on-5, creating 36.2 shots and 15.3 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes, all well above the league average. In addition to that 5-on-5 role, Tsyplakov has been a staple of New York’s top power play unit, earning nearly 60% of the team’s power play time thus far. Those are all good signs for his offensive upside.
A big part of that offensive upside tonight is the matchup against Montreal. In their first five games, the Canadiens are giving up the fourth-most shots and third-most high-danger attempts against per minute. To make matters worse, defenseman Kaiden Guhle will miss the game for Montreal, and they may be without both Juraj Slafkovský and Mike Matheson due to injury. This is a poor defensive team that will be without 1-3 of their top-of-the-roster players, and all this makes the Islanders the biggest favorite on the board tonight, and it provides a tremendous matchup for Tsyplakov.
Of all the wingers priced under $4,000 on DK and $5,000 on FD, Tsyplakov is coming in fifth and second by fantasy point projections. His ownership projections are around 10-11% on both sites, which is just fine considering the matchup. DFS players looking to save some salary will want to circle Tsyplakov’s name.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Mikhail Sergachev (UTA vs. BOS)
DraftKings Salary
$5,400
FanDuel Salary
$7,400
On the topic of defensive injuries, Utah’s Sean Durzi was injured this week and is expected to be out for months. In the game Durzi was injured, Sergachev skated 28:25 in ice time, and he followed that up with 27:52 in ice time in the team’s first full game without Durzi. Sergachev plays heavy minutes in all three phases of the game, and may earn the most ice time of any skater on tonight’s slate. That helps his peripherals, as he has 12 blocks already this season, reaching the DK block bonus in three of his five games. He is typically not shooting threat, but any defenseman getting that much ice time can put up good peripheral stats.
Stokastic’s skater stats minutes projection for Sergachev is second tonight, trailing only Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes. On DK, that is translating to the second-highest fantasy point projection for any defenseman priced under $6,000, and that makes him a target in all formats.
On FanDuel, DFS players may want to pivot to Seth Jones (CHI, $6,600) who has a stronger projection at a near-identical price.
Lane Hutson (MTL at NYI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,600
FanDuel Salary
$4,700
With the injuries on Montreal’s blue line, Hutson is in line for a big boost in minutes. On Thursday night, Matheson left the game after the first period and Hutson surpassed the 30-minute mark, something that happened just 37 times across the league all of last season. He likely won’t reach that mark again because it was an in-game injury and they only had five healthy defensemen left, but he did skate nearly seven more minutes than the next-closest teammate. If Matheson is out, Hutson will also be quarterbacking Montreal’s top power play unit, and those are prime offensive minutes against a New York Islanders team that had arguably the worst penalty kill in the NHL last season.
On FanDuel, Hutson’s projection is fifth among all defensemen priced under $5,000. The projection is worse on DK where peripherals matter more and Hutson hasn’t shown much for shooting or blocking yet, but given the expected ice-time rise, he’s perfectly acceptable at his price.
Top NHL DFS Goalies Today
Kevin Lankinen (VAN at PHI)
DraftKings Salary
$7,800
FanDuel Salary
$7,800
Lankinen has made just two starts this season, but has been solid in both by allowing just four goals on 59 shots against. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, he is 13th in the league by save percentage among starters and backups. He has generally been a backup goalie, so there isn’t a large sample to work with, but he has been in the 83rd percentile of goalies in that span by goals saved above expected, too. He has generally been an above-average goalie in his five-year NHL career, and there’s a reason Vancouver has turned to him due to injuries.
Stokastic’s goalie stats have Lankinen saving the fifth-most shots of all expected starters tonight, but allowing the fifth-fewest goals against. That gap between saves and goals is giving him a very strong fantasy point projection, coming in fourth on DK and second on FD. At a reasonable price with his team being a road favorite, Lankinen should be a top consideration for goalie tonight no matter the contest or site.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today
TOR1: Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
The boxcar stats aren’t eye-popping for this trio yet, but they have created absurd amounts of offense so far this season. Through four games and 41 minutes of ice time together at 5-on-5, this trio is outshooting the opponent 36-22, carrying the high-danger shot advantage 12-7, and outscored their opposition 3-0. Matthews has just one goal and three points in four games, but the team is shooting 8.6% with him on the ice, a number that exceeded 13% in each of the prior three seasons. Once things start regressing positively, this line will start filling the net, and return to being one of the top offensive trios in the league.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this unit as the third-most likely line to be a top-2 stack tonight, trailing only the top lines from Minnesota and Boston. They are projected for much lower ownership than that top-2 stack probability, too, and that gives them good positive leverage. This is an elite line at home in a game with a 6.5 total, so they need to be considered for tournament stacks.
NYI1: Anthony Duclair – Bo Horvat – Mathew Barzal
As mentioned in the section on Tsyplakov, this is a hobbled Montreal team heading into New York. It makes the Islanders the biggest favorite tonight and that is part of what brings them into play.
What brings this particular line into play is their performance so far this season and their correlation. Through four games, and at 5-on-5, this trio has generated 16.8 high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes with the league average being around 11.5. It is a small sample, but with matchups against Utah, Dallas, Colorado, and St. Louis, it hasn’t been a soft matchup start, and they’re playing very well.
As for the correlation, each member of this trio is on the team’s top power play unit. Montreal’s penalty kill has been better than last season when they were in the bottom-10 of the league, but without defenseman Guhle in the lineup, the Canadiens are without likely their best penalty killer. It helps the matchup for the power play, and it’s a great matchup at even strength anyway.
On both DK and FD, this trio is one of a handful of lines projected for at least 10% top-2 stack probability, per the Top Stacks tool. The issue is their moderate price, perfect correlation, and great matchup means a lot of ownership on DK (16.9% projected). They are much more reasonable on FD (7.3%), so they make more sense on that site, but they can be used on either given the high top-2 stack potential.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
