NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Ravens at Chiefs (Sept. 5)

The NFL is welcoming a new season as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Ravens-Chiefs Week 1 Thursday Night Football DFS plays for the inaugural 2024 NFL Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Ravens-Chiefs DFS picks.

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NFL Thursday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Ravens-Chiefs

What’s old is new again as the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs get a tough test against fellow perennial playoff franchise in the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each have new teammates, and these defenses were two of the best last season. Let’s dive into our NFL DFS picks for Week 1 Thursday Night Football.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1: Travis Kelce

Kansas City is looking to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls, and they will need Kelce healthy in order to achieve that milestone. Last year Kelce had his fewest targets and receptions since 2016 and 2015, respectively. He also had just five touchdowns in the regular season. The storyline this year will be that we see Kelce with his fewest plays, snaps and volume of the last five years and that coach Andy Reid looks to have his most trustworthy pass-catcher playing the high-leverage snaps while getting ample in-game rest and, of course, very little action when the game is in hand.

Casual gamers are going to remember his playoff run that saw him with three double-digit-reception performances, a trio of touchdowns and 209 yards in the final two playoff tilts. That is going to make it hard for him to be a major DFS difference-maker, and without a touchdown, there is a decent chance Kelce will not escape single-digit-fantasy point purgatory. Caveat Emptor.

Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview

Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Patrick Mahomes won his third Super Bowl MVP, surging to the postseason hardware after a rare mediocre regular season campaign. It was particularly stark in contrast with his 2022 season, which earned him his second NFL MVP award. The sublime signal-caller had some of the worst statistics of his career, including his touchdown rate, yards per game, per catch, per attempt and air yards per attempt. Yes, a lot of that had to do with his dreadful receiving corps, with the corpses of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney’s careers, along with the ghost of Marques Valdez-Scantling and the Chiefs actually trading for Mecole Hardman to return to the team after he left in free agency.

Unfortunately, Moore and Hardman are back, but they are not likely to play substantial roles, at least when Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is healthy. The team did bring back JuJu Smith-Schuster after he spent last year in New England, but that is likely only for veteran depth.

Mahomes will have his work cut out for him against the top passing DVOA from last season. Of course, with the offensive upgrades for Kansas City and turnover on the Baltimore defense, there is no need to shy away from a real-life wizard on a single-game slate.

Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Isiah Pacheco is the clear lead back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the non-football injury list. The team signed Samaje Perine to a one-year, $1.5 million deal the day after Denver released him. Perine is a versatile back, and we have seen how Reid has employed dual-threat part-timers in the past. Perine is $4,500 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, looking like one of the better discount dandies in the player pool. There is a lot of competition for high-value touches, though the former Oklahoma star is a savvy veteran who has played for four teams and been a crucial cog with Washington, Cincinnati and Denver. Expect the journeyman to end up on around 15% of all rosters on the main DFS sites.

Pacheco was outstanding last year, with 935 rushing yards in his 14 games after earning the starting nod in Week 2. He had nine total touchdowns and added three more in the postseason. He is an adequate pass-catcher, bringing in 44 of 49 (49.4%) of his targets, but he averaged a paltry 5.6 yards per catch.

Considering how rushing dependent he is, the Stokastic NFL DFS projections have him with the third-best median fantasy point projection on FanDuel (12.46), though he falls to fifth on DraftKings (14.21) with the full-PPR scoring format. Rookie fullback Carson Steele should at least see the field as a blocker, with the over/under on his projected touches sitting at 2.5 and around -170 on the under.

Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Rashee Rice was excellent down the stretch last year as Reid and company ramped him up perfectly. He is not going to surprise anyone this season, but he also should see more volume from the jump. Rookie Xavier Worthy is a wild card, with first-round draft capital and potentially a starting role in three-wide receiver sets, beginning with tonight. Speed is on his side, but size is not, as he is allegedly 5-foot-11 and barely 170 pounds.

The flotsam and jetsam named in Mahomes’ section are likely to rotate into the third slot, along with the lead Mahomie in Justin Watson. Watson, Smith-Schuster, Hardman and Moore combined have a similar fantasy total when compared to Worthy, and they are a handful of points behind Rice. Of course, if any catches a touchdown — which, of course, is always possible with Mahomes under center — they will push their fantasy supporters up the tournament leaderboards.

Worthy is mispriced on FanDuel at only $8,500, so expect him to be one of the most popular players from either team. The blue site does not have the same salary floor as DraftKings, which is really suppressing the popularity of the ne’er do wells being targeted by Mahomes.

Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

We already talked about Travis Kelce. He is projected to be on around 40% of all DraftKings rosters and 25% for FanDuel, where there is one fewer roster slot. Keep in mind that he tallied 50 or fewer yards in six of his 15 (40%) games played, though catching touchdowns in two of those outings salvaged the effort.

Noah Gray is likely to be on the field for around half of the snaps, and while he is the “blocking” tight end, he was sixth on the team with 41 targets last year. Blake Bell is gone, but Peyton Hendershot was acquired last week from Dallas for a conditional seventh-round pick in the upcoming draft. Depending on how quickly he acclimates to the playbook, the plan seems to be to have him seeing action when Kelce is on the sidelines or as a replacement for Gray. There is a good chance he will be inactive tonight, with rookie Jared Wiley serving as the third tight end since he had a full training camp with the team.

Wiley was a fourth-round selection out of TCU, having played two seasons as a full-time starter after arriving via the transfer portal following three seasons with Texas. He had 12 touchdowns in his 27 games and is mildly intriguing as a longshot lottery ticket if only three tight ends are active for Kansas City,

Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Harrison Butker is the highest paid kicker in the league, though he has never received a Pro Bowl nod. He has a terrific 89.1% field goal conversion rate, including making 19 of 25 (76.0%) from 50-plus yards over the last four seasons.

Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Baltimore tends to limit sacks with the ground-attack approach, averaging just 2.4 per game over the last two seasons. The team has allowed only 40 turnovers during the same timeframe for 1.18 per game.

Kansas City has only 37 takeaways across the last two seasons, though the Chiefs were second in the league last year with 3.35 sacks per game, as well as in 2022 with 3.23 per tilt.

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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1: Mark Andrews

In those two seasons, Andrews averaged 8.3 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 69 yards and scored 14 total touchdowns across 32 games. We know he has an excellent rapport with his quarterback, and similar to Kelce, he is the most trusted pass-catcher on the team.

Baltimore Ravens Positional Previews

Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Lamar Jackson is fresh off his second NFL MVP season, though he, of course, has his mind set on adding a Super Bowl to his resume. The 27-year-old is in year 2 of a five-season, $260 million deal, so there should be no distractions as he focuses on the ultimate endgame.

Jackson led all quarterbacks with 5.5 rushing yards per carry, and while that was the third time he had achieved this milestone, it was his lowest rate since his rookie year, as was his 51.3 yards per game. He did have five rushing scores, equaling his production from the prior two years combined. With a revamped running game, along with Baltimore’s significant investment in their field general, expect Jackson to be more selective about his rushes. Not to fear: He still will be effective and dangerous on any play, but the volume is unlikely exceed his 61.1 yards per game.

Last year Jackson had a 5.3% touchdown rate, which is very respectable, though below his 5.9% career average. Nothing will top his initial MVP campaign when he led the league with 36 aerial scores and a whopping 9.0% rate in his second season — playing just 15 games. The league has had time to figure out how to contain Jackson, but they still cannot consistently shut him down.

Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are now with the Los Angeles Chargers, so that leaves Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell as the lone returning running backs with any experience in the Baltimore system. Mitchell is on the PUP list with a knee injury, and fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali (neck) is doubtful.

Fortunately, the offseason addition of future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry should quell any fears about coach John Harbaugh’s rushing attack. Though Henry has made the Pro Bowl and led the league in rushing attempts each of his last four healthy seasons, he is going to be 31 years old in January, and that is a lot of mileage for someone who plays the most fungible skill position in the NFL.

For all the trite analysis about Henry “not being involved in the passing game” or being “not that good of a receiver,” he still had 41 and 36 targets each of the last two years. He is perfectly adequate as an early-down pass-catcher out of the backfield, and it will be a bit of a surprise if he does not flirt with similar volume alongside Jackson.

Patrick Ricard remains in his role as a “fullback,” though the 300-pounder is really a more mobile offensive lineman than anything else. Last year he played in all 17 games, starting nine, with zero carries and just seven targets for five receptions, 52 yards and a tuddie.

Across 104 career games, he has only 10 rushing attempts for 55 yards, though he has scored on six of those totes. Keep in mind he spent his first two seasons of his career also dabbling as a defensive lineman. Yes, he has received Pro Bowl honors in four of the last five seasons, with the lone exception being last year, when he was still Second-Team All-Pro. That is a lot of words for someone unlikely to have a touch tonight, but that is the point. Know the players and their likelihood of access to fantasy production. This is Week 1, and the above information should be eye-opening for those gamers lulled into complacency during the offseason.

Ricard is still in play at just $300 on DraftKings, but expecting a 0-fantasy point night is appropriate for someone who has been without any offensive opportunities in 60 of his 104 (57.7%) games.

Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Zay Flowers was outstanding in his rookie season, considering how much chaos was surrounding the availability of key players in this established offense. Across 16 games, he has 108 targets, 77 receptions and 858 yards. This works out to a steady 11.1 yards per reception, and he also added five receiving touchdowns, plus eight carries for 56 yards and another score.

Behind Flowers on the target distribution and talent lists were Odell Beckham Jr. (64 targets), Nelson Agholor (45 targets) and Rashod Bateman (56 targets). The latter two veterans are back, but we know what they have to offer, and it is not much above league average on their good days.

Rookie Devontez Walker will serve as the fourth wideout after being selecting in the fourth round from North Carolina. Walker transferred from Kent State after posting 58 receptions, 921 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore. Once he moved from the MAC to the ACC, he had 41 receptions, 699 yards and seven touchdowns in four fewer games.

Deonte Harty is the listed punt and kick returner, while Tylan Wallace is likely to be inactive. Year in and year out, Baltimore is a consolidated offense, and this duo will be on the outside looking in.

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Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Andrews was covered in the featured section above, so that leaves Isaiah Likely as the next man up. Likely has been solid in his 27 career games, proving to be a capable replacement for Andrews when the veteran was out with various maladies. On his career, the 24-year-old has seen 100 targets with 66 receptions and eight touchdowns. DraftKings has the best deal for the Coastal Carolina Chanticleer, with a discounted $2,600 salary cap hit. That has Likely also in play for cash games (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans) for those who like a more aggressive approach.

Charlie Kolar will be the third tight end, and he at least should be on the field. He had three ceremonial starts down the stretch last year, including Week 17, where he had around half of his career production, with four targets, three catches and 23 yards. Remember, in the single-slate format, no stone is unturned.

Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Justin Tucker is one of the best kickers in the history of the game. Though he was just one of five from beyond 50 yards, keep in mind he plays most of his games outside, being in the AFC North. He had just one miss inside of 50 yards last year, one in 2022 and two in 2021. For his career, he has converted on 112 of 125 (89.6%) of his attempts inside of 40 yards.

Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Last year the Ravens had the best passing DVOA and ranked seventh in rushing DVOA. They also led the league with 60 sacks and 31 takeaways. Mahomes does a great job limiting sacks with a 4.0% career rate, and while his 2.3% interception rate was a personal worst last year, it is still better than most starting quarterbacks.

NFL DFS Picks for Week 1 Thursday Night Football: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Chiefs

1. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
2. Lamar Jackson: If this game were in Baltimore, he would have the top slot.
3. Isaiah Pacheco: The backfield is his on the early downs, and he has the trust of the coaches.
4. Rashee Rice: No worries about a suspension tonight.
5. Derrick Henry: It will be fun to see him in a new uniform; different, but fun.
6. Mark Andrews: Stands out as a steady point-per-dollar performer on both sites.
7. Harrison Butker: Well versed in Arrowhead Stadium.
8. Justin Tucker: Arguably the best ever at his position.
9. Zay Flowers: Already the WR1, though still behind Andrews in the pecking order.
10. Travis Kelce: Could have a multi-touchdown game and make this ranking look foolish. Those are the risks of #ToutLife.

Secondary Options

1. Xavier Worthy: One long score could break the slate; volume will be interesting as industry consensus is just below half a dozen targets, with Stokastic at 6.7. Also anticipated that he will return punts.
2. Isaiah Likely and Noah Gray: Discount Dandies and we need salary relief. Both should see substantial time on the field, which is the first step towards catching the eye of their respective quarterbacks.
3. Samaje Perine: If he had the full offseason with his new team, he would probably crack the top 10. Workload has a wide range of outcomes tonight.
4. Justice Hill: Familiarity and lack of backfield options due to injuries have him on the radar. High-leverage looks are unlikely.
5. Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor: Playing both in the same lineup is redundant; their best path to success is an early Kansas City lead.

Lottery Tickets

1. Kansas City D/ST: Gets the home field edge.
2. Baltimore D/ST: Even with personnel turnover, this is a strong unit.
3. Carson Steele: Great name for a fullback; in play on DraftKings around lineup 20 or so.
4. Deonte Harty: The new kickoff rules will be interesting. Keep in mind that Harty was a Pro Bowler and an All-Pro returner as a rookie with New Orleans in 2019, leading the league in punt returns and kickoffs. Last year he was in Buffalo, cracking the wide receiver rotation, and he had a 96-yard punt return for a touchdown. Unless he scores on a return, he won’t get any fantasy points, and it is unclear where he stands in the Baltimore receiver room. Viable in tournaments, particularly on DraftKings ($800).
5. Jared Wiley and Peyton Hendershot: Truly lottery tickets but feels like they could be worth a few bucks.
6. Mecole Hardman: When was the last time this guy had a big fantasy payday? Does have the edge over Moore for kick returns.
7. Tylan Wallace and Charlie Kolar: Not much to say, the former may not be active, the latter needs to catch lightening in a bottle, or just a touchdown, though he may not be on the field for more than a dozen snaps and Action Jackson could manifest a pass to himself at a higher probability.
8. Skyy Moore: Mr. Butterfingers.

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