Sunday Night Football brings the highest game total, currently sitting at 52.5 as the Detroit Lions host the Los Angeles Rams. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Rams-Lions showdown for Week 1 Sunday Night Football.
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NFL Sunday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Rams-Lions
Tonight will be the third time that Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford have squared off since being traded for one another. Stafford, of course, won the first meeting in Los Angeles during a Week 7 28-19 romp on the way to winning Super Bowl LVI. Goff had payback last year, with the Lions claiming a 24-23 Wild Card Round victory.
Get ready for a spicy game tonight as these two playoff hopefuls get to test things out in their first official action of the season.
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1: Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $12,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 14.01
FanDuel: 12.34
Last year was a terrific one for Kyren Williams, who essentially made Cam Akers expendable, with the Rams dealing him to Minnesota in late September last season. The second-year back saw an insane workload, getting action on at least 90% of the snaps in five of his 12 (41.7%) games, with 70% or more in five other tilts.
The workload took a toll, as he did miss four games between Weeks 7 and 11, along with the Week 10 bye. Los Angeles used a third-round pick on Blake Corum, who had great success at the University of Michigan, including beating the Washington Huskies in the NCAA Championship Game. Aside from Corum, UDFA Ronnie Rivers is back for a third year with the team, and this group will be rounded out by UDFA rookie Cody Schrader from Missouri.
Corum averaged almost 94 rushing yards per game in his three seasons as a starter in Michigan, racking up 56 ground scores, including 27 in his final campaign. It makes sense to expect something along the lines of a 70/30 split favoring Williams, who should also get the passing-down work. Corum has a slight size advantage, so at some point he could become the featured red zone option, though the Rams are all too happy to pass under the shadow of the goalposts.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Stafford is now 36 years old with a recent history of shoulder and elbow issues. He played only nine games in 2022 but rallied for 15 games last year, sitting Week 18, as well as Week 9 after suffering an injury in the preceding game against the Cowboys in Dallas.
The veteran has a talented running game that he can lean on, along with two amazing wideouts and a veteran tight end. He is always a threat for the 300-yard bonus and, of course, multiple touchdowns, but he is a zero in the ground game. Stafford’s last two regular season rushing scores were against Dallas on Dec. 26 back in 2016 and on Oct. 30 against San Francisco in 2022.
Across 41 regular season games with Los Angeles, Stafford has 66 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown. For those looking at his rushing prop of over 0.5 yards at +100, keep in mind he had one carry in each of the final six games, for -1, -4, 2, -1, -2 and 2 yards. Yup, those kneeldowns can be soul crushing.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
In 2021, Cooper Kupp had arguably the greatest season every by a wide receiver. Then last year, Puka Nacua set all sorts of NFL records as a rookie fifth-rounder out of BYU. The bona fides for both are well known, so we will want to let personal preference, price and projected popularity be decision factors tonight. On DraftKings, Nacua has a 1.5-median-fantasy point projection advantage while also seeing a slightly higher salary at $9,800, with Kupp at $9,600. FanDuel has Nacua with a $15,000 salary, while Kupp is at $10,000. That disparity in dollars will also push Kupp to be well more represented in tournaments, hence the different recommendations for the two sites.
Down the stretch it was veteran Demarcus Robinson, who became a DFS darling after muddling his way through four seasons with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback and one with Lamar Jackson.
Between Weeks 12 and 16, Robinson racked up 34 targets, 21 receptions and 319 yards, scoring a touchdown in four of the five games. Robinson will celebrate his 30th birthday later this month, so that flash of reliability is probably not replicable.
For Week 1, Robinson should be cemented in three-wideout sets, with veteran Tutu Atwell likely seeing the field for a dozen or so plays and at least one or two specifically designed for him to get the ball in space. After that, rookie Jordan Whittington had some nice moments in training camp, though the sixth-round pick from Texas is probably not going to make much noise tonight.
Looking at the Stokastic NFL DFS projections, the targets fall out as follows: Nacua 8.5, Kupp 8.2, Robinson 4.5, Whittington 1.3 and Atwell 0.9. That elevates Robinson on DraftKings ($5,000), though in the FanDuel ($7,000) half-PPR format, he is a neutral play at best.
Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Long-time Ram Tyler Higbee is out, so newcomer Colby Parkinson will hold down the lead role. While he is known for his blocking, Parkinson was a solid option the last two years in the crowded Seattle rotation. This is his fifth year in the league, and his well-rounded game should have him on the field a lot. The on-field presence is key since Stafford has not utilized the tight end during his time in Los Angeles. That is partly because of the excellent wideouts but also part of the overall offensive scheme. Higbee had 11 touchdowns in these three seasons, Davis Allen one, Brycen Hopkins zero in 12 games and Kendall Blanton none in six games. Allen is the only current member of that trio on the team.
For those wondering who the third tight end is, well, wait no more … it is none other than Hunter Long, who last saw a target in his rookie season with Miami back in 2021.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Joshua Karty was a sixth-round selection in the most recent NFL Draft out of Stanford. Karty was the starting kicker for three seasons, making 72 of 73 (96.8%) point after touchdown attempts and 51 of 60 (85%) field goals. The 22-year-old was a finalist for the Lou Groza Award after his second year with the Cardinal and he was a Preseason All-American heading into last year.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
The Rams collected 41 sacks, which was in the bottom third of the league, though much closer to league average than the dregs in the low-30s and below. The Lions were solid, giving up just 31 sacks, which was the fourth fewest in the league.
On defense, L.A. was dreadful with only 15 takeaways all year, ahead of only the Titans (14) and Panthers (11). Detroit suffered only 23 turnovers, which was right around league average.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.38
FanDuel: 16.54
It should be no surprise that Amon-Ra St. Brown carries the highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest median projection with DraftKings full-PPR scoring format, sliding to third on FanDuel in the half-PPR scoring system.
The soon-to-be 25-year-old increased his receiving production across the board while also earning First-Team All-Pro honors. Between the running game and just enough complementary pass-catchers, teams can lean towards shading the “Sun God” — but they will not be able to shut him down.
Even though St. Brown had a whopping 28.8% target share, including the playoffs, only one other pass-catcher averaged more than 3.6 targets per game. That indicates that Jared Goff is more than willing to take what the defense is giving him if his favorite option is seeing heavy coverage.
Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
In 2022, Goff earned Pro Bowl honors for the third time in his career, though he fell short last year despite leading the team to a 12-5 record and having better counting stats across the board. It is also wild to think that Goff will be celebrating his 30th birthday in October. He has thrived under coach Dan Campbell, who does a great job of keeping all of his key skill-position players involved in every tilt.
Goff has a reputation as a game manager, but that is a lazy comparison. Yes, he lost the confidence of the coaching regime in Los Angeles, who moved on from him for Matt Stafford and was rewarded with a Super Bowl. However, Goff never really had a horrible season, though he saw his production decline in both 2019 and 2020 after consecutive Pro Bowl campaigns. Across his last 34 regular season games, the former Cal Bear has a 66.2% completion rate with a solid 4.9% touchdown rate. His 4.3% sack and 1.6% interception rates are also acceptable, especially since he limits in-game meltdowns.
Last year the Rams had the No. 20 rushing DVOA and the 22nd-best passing DVOA, so there should be plenty of room for Goff to find some fantasy goodness, particularly with the team installed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Detroit has an excellent running back situation with a pair of effective players in veteran David Montgomery and second-year man Jahmyr Gibbs. Each player missed three games, with the healthy option getting unfettered access to a full workload. Montgomery likely has a 60/40 snap share advantage, but the fantasy production may not follow that split.
Expectations have Monty with around 13 to 15 carries, but despite being a capable receiver, he had only 24 regular season targets last year, so that is why he has a 1.8 projection for tonight. Gibbs has double that, and while he can run between the tackles, he is much more dynamic and the team tries to get him in space via screens and sweeps. Something in the 10- to 12-carry range is the baseline, though either back could out-touch the other by half a dozen opportunities depending on game flow, hot hand, etc.
Over the last seven games, including the postseason when both players were active, Montgomery had 22 red zone opportunities, while Gibbs had 28. Craig Reynolds will probably get a touch or two, but unless something befalls one of the co-leaders, expect his involvement to be minimal.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Veteran Josh Reynolds is now in Denver, so expect Jameson Williams to serve as the WR2, with journeyman Kalif Raymond working into the mix for three-wideout sets. Things thin out dramatically after that with UDFS Isaiah Williams the most likely backup, though he could be inactive in favor of Tom Kennedy (no relation Stokastic CEO Tom Kennedy), who has appeared in 11 games of the last two seasons as a UDFA out of Bryant (yeah, go ahead and look that up). It could also be Antoine Green, who was a seventh-round selection from North Carolina last year, getting on the field for two games and seeing two targets.
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Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Sam LaPorta had an outstanding rookie season, with a record 86 receptions and also 176 postseason receiving yards. His 889 yards (fourth most ever) fell short of Mike Ditka’s rookie record of 1,076 yards back in the days of a 14-game regular season. LaPorta also trailed Ditka in touchdowns 12 to 10; this is less of a slight on LaPorta and more highlighting how amazing Ditka was in the days of a run-dominated league.
LaPorta is the clear second option in the passing game while also holding a strong red zone presence. He is worthy of the multiplier slot, as 100 yards and/or multiple touchdowns are in his range of potential outcomes.
Brock Wright is a favorite of fans, players and the coaches, but his projected targets are 1.2, with 29-year-old Parker Hess as the third tight end. Hess last saw a target in 2022 while he was with Atlanta as an undrafted free agent.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Jake Bates is the new kicker for the Lions, having come from the UFL. He actually played two seasons of soccer at Central Arkansas before moving to Texas State to play football. There he only was utilized for kickoffs, so he transferred to Arkansas after two years, again focusing on kickoffs and being named to the All-SEC team for his specialty.
Houston brought Bates in as a UDFA, though he did not make the Texans roster. That had him heading to the Michigan Panthers of the UFL, where he kicked a record 64-yard field goal on his first official in-game attempt since high school. He had two other 60-yard kicks, with a 17-for-22 (77.3%) overall success rate. Sadly, neither DraftKings nor FanDuel award anything extra for 60-yard conversions.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1
Much like Los Angeles, Detroit had 41 sacks last year against opposing quarterbacks, though the Rams ceded only two sacks per game, which was the sixth fewest in the league. The Motor City Kitties had 23 takeaways, while the Rams had only 18 turnovers.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1 Sunday Night Football: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Rams-Lions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: How can we not play the Sun God?
- Cooper Kupp: He is heathy and at a ridiculous salary on FanDuel.
- Puka Nacua: While he is the heir apparent to Kupp, the veteran is now healthy and it is Nacua who has been dinged up in training camp.
- Kyren Williams: Has the edge over his rookie counterpart, but do not expect more than a 70% snap share. Will be returning punts.
- Sam LaPorta: Looking forward to seeing his encore.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Explosive upside and better receiving option than Montgomery.
- Jake Bates: The leg is impressive.
- Joshua Karty: More in-game field goal experience than his fellow rookie.
- David Montgomery: Very much in play; with both teams running consolidated offenses, this is not a demoralizing ranking.
- Jared Goff: Advantage for having the crowd with him.
Secondary Options
- Matt Stafford: Really should be in the top 10, but then it wouldn’t be a top 10.
- Jameson Williams: Thankfully, he didn’t actually bet on himself.
- Blake Corum: Direct leverage against Kyren, appealing salary on both DraftKings ($4,800) and FanDuel ($8,000), but really will need a touchdown, and that could be a stretch based on the current pecking order. Likely to return kickoffs.
- Demarcus Robinson: The team likes him; will his opportunities continue after the offseason layoff?
- Colby Parkinson: Meh, but $3,200 on DraftKings, touchdown longshot on FanDuel ($6,500).
Lottery Tickets
- Isaiah Williams, Tom Kennedy, Hunter Long and Tyler Johnson : $200 minimum plays on DraftKings; even taking a potential zero, there is value in loading up on the rest of the lineup slots. Avoid on FanDuel.
- Kalif Raymond: Legitimate dart throw across the main DFS sites as the WR3. Also returns punts.
- Detroit D/ST: Rams do a solid job of limiting sacks and turnovers; edge for the home crowd and chance that the Los Angeles falls behind early.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Lions do a solid job of limiting sacks and turnovers; this team needs a splash play to be a difference-maker.
- Brock Wright and Jordan Whittington: Deep on the totem pole for their respective teams but should get a look or two.
- Tutu Atwell: Counting on a schemed play; that is not helpful on FanDuel ($7,500), but a couple of fantasy points on DraftKings ($2,400) could slide him into the optimal lineup.
- Craig Reynolds: Will be active; could get a courtesy carry or target as a veteran. Also returns kickoffs.
- Ronnie Rivers: Needs something to befall one of the running backs ahead of him before he becomes relevant, and even then it may not be enough.
- Antoine Green: Last player worthy of his own line, better on DraftKings, but he may be inactive.
- Sione Vaki, Tim Patrick and Parker Hesse: May not be active.
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