The NFL is in San Paulo, Brazil, tonight with the Green Bay Packers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in Corinthians Arena. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Packers-Eagles Week 1 Friday Night Football DFS plays for the season’s first international NFL Showdown slate.
Stokastic has you covered with a wealth of NFL DFS tools and insights across all slates, game formats and platforms. This column offers a free breakdown of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel, featuring team previews, player rankings, expert commentary and top NFL DFS picks. With loads of in-depth analysis for Friday night’s Packers-Eagles Showdown, let’s dive into our picks and strategy.
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NFL Friday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Packers-Eagles
Tonight, in a global expansion twist, the NFL is making an inaugural foray into Brazil. The Eagles and Jalen Hurts have a lot to prove this season after squandering a 10-1 record with a 1-5 slide into a first-round playoff loss. The other new plot line is how the team will employ new running back Saquon Barkley, who signed a three-year, $37,750,000 contract with the Eagles this offseason.
Turning to Green Bay, the Packers have a new running back room and it will be interesting to see if Jordan Love can continue his rocket ship trajectory from last season. Let’s dive into our NFL DFS picks for Week 1 Friday Night Football.
NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $17,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 23.23
FanDuel: 22.41
In a fun twist, Jalen Hurts actually is the best fantasy point-per-dollar option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fortunately, he also has the highest salary on FanDuel by $1,500 over his fellow field general. DraftKings has him with the second-highest salary, trailing teammate A.J. Brown by $400.
Hurts had an absurd 15 rushing touchdowns last season, though his 605 yards on the ground were his lowest of the last three years and magnified by a 35.6 per game average, down almost 30% over the prior two years.
Obviously, Hurts could easily turn around his rushing totals, though that could be tougher now that Saquon Barkley was handed a bag this offseason. Expect the “Tush Push” to continue, which, of course, more than offsets the paltry rushing totals as one touchdown on the ground is the same as 60 yards.
The 26-year-old signal-caller had 15 interceptions last year, which was tied with Josh Allen and trailing only Sam Howell (21). It looks like 2022’s 1.3% interception rate was the aberration, but we should expect Hurts to improve on his 2.8% rate from last year with something closer to his 2.2% career average.
Philadelphia is likely to focus on the ground attack against Green Bay’s 26th-ranked rushing DVOA, though it is also notable that the Packers had the 27th passing DVOA. His three key pass-catchers are all back for a third consecutive season, which bodes well for Hurts.
Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview
Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
After six seasons with the Giants, Barkley and the team parted ways, with New York deciding against using the franchise tag again on the disgruntled ball carrier, allowing him to get his free agency wish. Last year the Packers allowed nine different running backs to rush for at least 80 yards, including four 100-yard games, with three quarterbacks scrambling for at least 59 yards. Barkley is one of the most well-rounded backs in the game, and he should be able to produce fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Kenneth Gainwell is a franchise favorite, so expect to hear his name called at least a couple of times on tonight’s broadcast. He is in play on DraftKings ($3,400) in all formats and is fine as a tournament flier on FanDuel ($7,000). Red zone looks are unlikely, but he has a path to half a dozen opportunities in relief of Barkley, and there is a chance for mop-up duty.
Rookie Will Shipley can be skipped on the blue site at $6,000, but he is in the mix as a discount dandy on DraftKings ($2,000). The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have him projecting for two carries and a target, which could have him push for 5 fantasy points with some luck. In three seasons at Clemson, Shipley rushed for 2,747 yards and 31 touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He also contributed 85 catches, 602 yards and two more scores as a receiver. The Eagles liked him enough to spend a fourth-rounder, so he is likely to at least get a couple of looks tonight.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
A.J. Brown is at a ridiculous $11,000 on DraftKings, topping the salary list. FanDuel has him at $14,000, which is 21% behind his quarterback and 11% behind Love. During his two years in Philadelphia, Brown is averaging 151.5 targets, 97 receptions and 1,476 yards, with 18 total touchdowns. He is a premier receiver, though a tick shy of the handful of truly elite options across the league.
DeVonta Smith has been a strong complementary receiver next to Brown, averaging 124 targets, 88 receptions and 1,131 yards, accompanied by 14 scores.
Three different times last year, this dynamic duo had double-digit targets in the same game. Brown reached that milestone eight times, with Smith logging four. They accounted for just over 80% of all wide receiver targets, which is domination.
Jahan Dotson is making his debut tonight after two disappointing seasons in Washington. Surprisingly, the Eagles were willing to deal a third-round selection for the 16th overall pick in the 2022 Draft.
In 29 games with the Commanders, Dotson had just 1,041 yards on 144 targets, catching 88 and tallying 11 touchdowns. Even if he consolidates all of the other receiving work for Philadelphia, it is hard to see much of a fantasy impact without a little gift from Lady Luck.
Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
When healthy, Dallas Goedert is a steady tight end. Even though he missed three games last year, he had 83 of the 96 (86.5%) targets to the position. In the three games he was absent, Jack Stoll had a pair of two target games, with Albert Okwuegbunam Jr. getting his lone look of the season in the third game.
Grant Calcaterra is the second option, though he had only four targets last year. Jack Stoll signed with the Giants in March, but he was released last week, rejoining the Eagles practice squad. The best guess is that Calcaterra and Stoll are active, with Albert O. turning back into a sideline spectator.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Jake Elliott has made 15 of his 17 attempts from 50-plus over the last three seasons. He was a Pro Bowler in 2021 and made the All-Pro Second-Team last year. He has a career success rate of 86.2%, and during the last three years he has converted 140 of 143 (97.9%) point after touchdown attempts.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Last year the Eagles averaged around three sacks per game, though Green Bay ceded just 30 on the season, which was the third fewest in the league at just 1.8 per game. Philadelphia had only 18 takeaways, matching the 18 combined turnover by the Packers.
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NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1: Jordan Love
Jordan Love
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400
FanDuel: $11,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 12.42
FanDuel: 9.88
In a twist, it is both quarterbacks who are landing in the callout sections for this matchup. Last year Jordan Love had a rocky start, with Green Bay losing five of the first seven games. There were DFS analysts referring to him as the worst starting quarterback in the league, which was both true and reactionary. Around Week 11, Love had things click and the team won six of eight games, then bested the Cowboys in Dallas for the Wild Card 48-32 before falling to the 49ers in San Francisco 24-21.
Love is mobile in the pocket, and while he should not be considered a running quarterback with his 247 yards, he did utilize his legs and wits enough to rush for four scores. It is crazy to think that part of the reason that Aaron Rodgers wanted out of Green Bay was not to become an immunization expert or become a Vice President candidate, it was because Green Bay did not have enough good receivers to his liking. So he left for the bright lights of New York City and then brought his favorite, Allen Lazard, with him and conned the Jets into getting Randall Cobb as well. Oops.
Green Bay Packers Positional Preview
Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Now that AJ Dillon is out for the season and, of course, Aaron Jones is now in Minnesota, it is shaping up to be a Josh Jacobs SZN. OK, that is probably hyperbole, but with rookie MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) and second-year man Emanuel Wilson (hip) both questionable, it makes sense that, for at least tonight, this is going to be the Jacobs show.
Considering this game is in Brazil, it would be hard to sign someone who is not already on the practice squad. That means Chris Brooks, Ellis Merriweather and La’Mical Perine would be the trio who could be tabbed if Lloyd or Wilson is not able to suit up.
Keep tabs as things develop since there is likely to be a value option that is either clarified or one that emerges. Jacobs looks like a terrific play in any of the situations against a bottom-10 rushing defense and a bottom-3 passing DVOA.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Pick a receiver, any receiver. That is going to be the analysis for the Packers, at least until someone is dinged up or a rotation/pecking order becomes clearer. Last year, Christian Watson missed eight regular season games in two stretches because of hamstring issues. It was determined there is some sort of imbalance between the strength in each of his legs that was causing the issue. He has been on a new training and nutrition regimen, which should improve his availability.
Romeo Doubs was the most “experienced” wideout in Green Bay last year, despite it being only his second season. He typically was on the field for 80% of the plays, but that number could easily come down with everyone healthy.
Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath all popped off in various games, including several single-game slates and the playoffs, likely cementing their roles this season. That means there are half a dozen receivers competing for routes, and even if Green Bay were to run nothing but three-wideout formations, the tight end position would still command targets as well.
Doubs, Watson and probably Reed will be the most fantasy relevant, with Heath as the least likely to do much. Wicks had touchdowns in three of his last four healthy games, along with 97 yards on six receptions in the other.
Then there is Melton as a potential diamond in the rough. Last year in the final five games (three without Watson and one without Reed), he had three games with at least four catches, one of which was a 100-yard game with a score. Plus he also had a tuddie on his lone 19-yard reception in the Wild Card game against San Francisco.
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Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Luke Musgrave was amazing as a rookie (keep in mind he missed the 2022 season with an injury), more than making good on his second-round draft capital out of Oregon. When he went down, Tucker Kraft stepped right in, averaging nearly four receptions per game and mid-40s yards, with two touchdowns in the six tilts without Musgrave. Again, this is an embarrassment of riches for a team that has no pass-catchers with more than two NFL campaigns under their belt.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
Brayden Narveson spent five seasons in the collegiate ranks, with appearances in five games as a freshman for Iowa State, three years as the regular kicker for Western Kentucky and then his final season was at North Carolina State. Narveson was a UDFA who was signed by Tennessee and released by the Titans at the end of training camp. Narveson never missed an extra point (196 attempts) in college, and he had a 78% success rate on field goals. He was solid in training camp, ultimately losing out to veteran Nick Folk.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1
The Pack Attack had a mediocre 45 sacks last year, while the Eagles allowed 38, though they will be without center Jason Kelce, who has retired. Turnovers were a bit of a challenge for Philadelphia with 28, but Green Bay had only 18 takeaways.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1 Friday Night Football: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Packers
- Jalen Hurts: Hurts so good.
- Jordan Love: Let’s see if the trend is his friend.
- Josh Jacobs: Should have the backfield to himself but lots of target competition.
- A.J. Brown: Lofty salary should suppress his popularity on DraftKings.
- Saquon Barkley: Does he get the goal line work as the new guy, or does it mostly go to Hurts for a potential MVP run?
- Christian Watson: It will be interesting to see him at full strength.
- Jake Elliott: Trustworthy and an adaptable outdoor kicker.
- DeVonta Smith: Less competition than his Green Bay counterparts, but he is not exactly a priority with everyone healthy to start the season.
- Luke Musgrave: Kraft (back) is questionable lots of mouths to feed in the Green Bay receiving game.
- Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs: Coinflip.
Secondary Options
- Braden Narveson: Lots of experience for a rookie, but he is still a rookie.
- Dallas Goedert: Gets crucial targets but questionable volume.
- Kenneth Gainwell: Best employed on DraftKings ($3,400).
- Green Bay D/ST: Meh.
- Philadelphia D/ST: Same as above.
Lottery Tickets
- Jahan Dotson: Couldn’t cut it in Washington; maybe he gets a “Hello, new guy” target or two from Hurts.
- Emanuel Wilson and MarShawn Lloyd: Ideally one is inactive and the other is not too banged up.
- La’Mical Perine: Best bet to get the nod from the practice squad, though no guarantee.
- Will Shipley: Expect a handful of opportunities tonight, more if there is mop-up duty.
- Bo Melton: Such a crowded room but still should see some action. Targets are a different story.
- Tucker Kraft: Even if he were healthy, he would only be a touchdown dart throw.
- Britain Covey: Main punt returner, could handle kickoff duty as well with Isaiah Rodgers hurt, though so could Gainwell. Only six targets as a receiver last year.
- Grant Calcaterra, Johnny Wilson, Ben Sims, Messiah Swinson, Malik Heath and Andrew Beck: Better luck next time.
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