Monday Night Football has a 43.5 projected total, which is on the low end of things — but that just makes the strategy more interesting in the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Jets-49ers showdown for Week 1 Monday Night Football.
Stokastic offers all the tools and insights you need to crush NFL DFS, no matter the slate, game format or platform. In this article, we break down the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel, featuring team previews, player rankings, expert analysis and top NFL DFS picks. With in-depth coverage of Monday night’s Jets-49ers Showdown, let’s dive into the best plays and strategies for this exciting slate.
NFL Monday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Jets-49ers
Last year the great Aaron Rodgers experiment lasted for only four plays after the former Green Bay Packer signal-caller ruptured his Achilles tendon. The self-styled immunization expert turned his skills to alternative healing, listening to dolphins enjoy themselves while he was lounging in a dark cave high on … well something other than life. OK, maybe the potential independent Vice President candidate did not do these things all at the same time, but can we be sure he didn’t?
Despite dating a bevy of beauties, at least he did not send any unwanted digital pics to anyone — well, at least as far as everyone knows. That was a different Green Bay Hall of Fame quarterback who landed in the Big Apple for the J-E-T-S, jets, Jets, JETS back in 2008. Of course, that was Brett Favre, who turned in a Pro Bowl season in his lone Gotham campaign with a 9-7 record, despite leading the league with 22 interceptions.
NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $14,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.62
FanDuel: 15.31
Last year San Francisco had the fourth-best passing DVOA, allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt. Aaron Rodgers was the NFL MVP in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but he is coming off an Achilles injury and will celebrate his 41st birthday prior to the postseason.
The skill position players are in place for Rodgers, but his effectiveness is a giant question mark. Randall Cobb is now a broadcaster, and Rodgers’ other pal from his Lambeau days, Allen Lazard, is at best a rotational player. Could Rodgers pull a rabbit out of the hat in a season or two as a maestro conducting a conservative run-first offense with an elite defense? The answer to that question is affirmative, though it is not anchored in much reality.
There is no question that Rodgers is a major upgrade over the quarterbacking crew from last season. The looming uncertainty, of course, is how effective will he be after a long injury layoff against an elite defense on the road and with Father Time sitting at the 50-yard line?
When considering all of the above, the salary is fair for the former Cal Bear, though the range of outcomes is expansive. The Stokastic NFL DFS projected stats have the venerable veteran with a median line of 21.13 completions on 33.7 attempts for 231.3 yards, 1.33 touchdowns and 0.92 potential turnovers. Caveat Emptor.
New York Jets Positional Preview
Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Breece Hall has proven to be a tremendous offensive asset, recovering and actually thriving after an ACL injury. Even with a poor quarterback situation and playing from behind more often than not, Hall racked up 994 rushing yards and a strong 4.5 yards per carry.
Filing this under “fun with numbers,” the 49ers allowed only five opposing ball-carriers to tally 60-plus yards last season. The other key aspect for Hall is a voluminous role in the passing game. He led all running backs with 95 targets last season, well in front of Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson, who each had 86.
Even if the level of opportunities decreases, the quality of the targets should increase for Hall since Rodgers should be able to get the ball downfield with more voracity than last year’s motley crew of signal-callers.
For those looking at traversing the road less traveled, there is a path with Braelon Allen, who sees a salary discount of $7,400 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel. However, the only way this understudy will outperform the star from a raw points perspective is via mop-up duty or something befalling the lead after the curtain goes up.
From a point-per-dollar perspective, things get a little interesting with Allen since rostering him frees up significant salary cap for upgrades at multiple slots. The upgrade at quarterback and wide receiver should have the 49ers busy on defense, so losing track of Allen is certainly a possibility.
In summary, Hall has a chance to be one of the top running backs in the league this season, though the path to success should be significantly easier for the remainder of September with matchups in Tennessee, against New England and then Denver. Have patience in season-long formats, though for tonight, fortune very well may favor the bold.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Garrett Wilson was out on an island during his sophomore season, somehow thriving with quarterbacks Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian all receiving multiple starts. Despite the lack of talent under center and being the focus of opposing secondaries, Wilson logged a second consecutive 1,000-yard season.
He saw the fourth-most targets (168), though that resulted in “only” 95 receptions, mostly due to factors beyond his control. If Rodgers is even close to league average, Wilson should be able to thrive this season, with the sky being the limit.
Veteran Mike Williams signed for a one-year deal for $10 million after being released by the Los Angeles Chargers. Keep in mind that he suffered a torn ACL in Week 3 last season, so while he is expected to play tonight, he will likely be eased back into action.
That makes it tricky to endorse Williams, though he certainly has touchdown equity with his new team. He should be on the field for most passing situations, which will help maximize his fantasy potential. Allen Lazard was, of course, brought over from Green Bay at the behest of Rodgers, but that does not guarantee his playing time. Yes, he may get looks from Rodgers in key third-down spots, but the veteran is a rotational player at this point of his career.
Rookie Malachi Corley and second-year UDFA Xavier Gipson are likely to overtake Lazard from a snap share perspective, but that may not occur tonight. DraftKings and FanDuel have this tertiary trio with similar salaries, and while Lazard certainly has the familiarity advantage, any of these pass-catchers could pop off with four receptions and 50 yards.
Looking at the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections, the targets fall out as follows: Wilson 9.9, Williams 3.5, Lazard 2.6, Gipson 2.1 and Corley 1.1. Things may be bleak after Wilson, but someone is likely to make noise with a splash play.
Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Tyler Conklin is in his seventh NFL season, and he has received metronome-like volume with 87 targets each of the last three years. While he did not score a touchdown last year, he had a respectable 10.2 yards per catch, and we know how Rodgers leaned on this position in the red zone while in Green Bay.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections actually have Conklin with 4.7 targets, placing him behind only Wilson and Allen (5.1) from a median expectation standpoint. Backups Jeremy Ruckert and Kenny Yeboah are dart throws at best with a combined 1.4 projected opportunities.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein had his best season in half a decade, with a 92.1% conversion rate on his 35 field goal attempts. Sadly, he had only 16 PAT attempts in this pitiful offense. In 2022 he was 6 of 11 (54.5%) from 50-plus yards, improving to 5 of 6 (83.3%) last year. The unflappable veteran will turn 37 years old in December, but with age comes experience.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Last year the Jets had a solid 48 sacks, which was just above league average. Considering opposing teams were rarely forced into extended passing situations, this is rather impressive. The 49ers allowed only 34 sacks, which was the sixth fewest in the league while averaging just over one turnover per game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1: Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600
FanDuel: $17,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.21
FanDuel: 18.81
There is an argument to be made that Christian McCaffrey is the best running back of all time. His combination of rushing and receiving skills, along with the proverbial nose for the end zone, makes him one of a kind.
McCaffrey is now 28 years old, and he already has missed time in his career with significant injuries. That typically would not be too much to worry about, particularly with how he finished last season, but he already has a calf issue as well as a sore Achilles.
The future Hall of Famer led the league with 1,459 rushing yards, 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns. This propelled the 49ers to the Super Bowl, where they fell to Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes. McCaffrey was the Offensive Player of the Year while also averaging a career-high 5.4 yards per carry. For the second time in his career, he led the league in touches, and while his 339 were well below his 403 in 2019, he did have injuries that held him to just 10 games in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Superlatives aside, it would make sense for coach Kyle Shanahan to try and avoid overburdening the engine of his offense. Keep in mind that the Super Bowl run also meant that the season lasted one month longer than it did for most of the playoff teams. This all adds up to just enough negatives to make rostering CMC somewhat unsettling — of course, so too would be watching him with 100-plus yards and multiple touchdowns on the rosters of other gamers.
San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview
Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Brock Purdy had one heck of a sophomore season, wearing his Mr. Irrelevant mantle well as he was in MVP contention late in the season. Efficiency was his hallmark, leading the league with a 7.0% touchdown rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, 13.9 yards per completion, and the best QBR and passer ratings.
Between Shanahan’s innovative offense and Pro Bowlers at every skill position, Purdy is once more behind the wheel of a Ferrari. New York is an elite defense, but the Jets cannot be everywhere at once, which will leave them susceptible to short, quick passes. The only concern is that Purdy could end up without yardage volume and/or touchdowns, which, of course, will make his current salary hard to support in the single-game contests.
Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Eli Mitchell is out for the season, so that leaves Jordan Mason as the frontrunner to cover the backfield when McCaffrey is on the sidelines. Behind him are rookie Isaac Guerendo and former Green Bay Packer reserve Patrick Taylor Jr.
Guerendo was a fourth-round selection, though he was an NCAA lifer and celebrated his 24th trip around the sun in June. He had a redshirt season back in 2018 with Wisconsin prior to seeing action in 24 games over the next four seasons. He then used his pandemic eligibility to transfer to Louisville, where he was solid with 132 carries for 810 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns, adding another 234 yards on 22 catches.
While at Wisconsin, he also saw time as a kick returner. He had just one start in his college career, backing up Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and Jawhar Jordan at Louisville. Considering McCaffrey’s health, it is likely all three of these reserves will be active tonight.
Mason is the most likely to get the first crack at the running game after McCaffrey, and in his two seasons as a reserve, he has 5.6 yards per carry on 83 totes, with four touchdowns. He was not much of a receiver in college, and all four of his career targets came last year. The former Georgia Tech back is unlikely to get high-leverage touches, but he does have a high likelihood of half a dozen opportunities tonight, with a potential foray into double-digit looks if there is mop-up duty.
Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
It will be interesting to see how quickly Brandon Aiyuk shakes off the rust from his holdout. The team appeared to be ready to move on, but how much of that was real and how much was posturing with the various trade scenarios is unknown. He should be happy after getting a four-year, $120 million deal, and given his back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, we know he is in the upper echelon of wideouts.
Deebo Samuel would typically be considered the most well-rounded player on his team, but, of course, he falls short with McCaffrey on the roster. If CMC is dinged up, we could see Samuel getting into the backfield mix for crucial stretches of the game. Over the last two seasons, Samuel has 79 carries for 457 yards and eight touchdowns. Sorry, Mason — you are double-blocked for red zone looks.
Rookie Ricky Pearsall suffered a gunshot wound while being robbed in San Francisco’s Union Square district. He is out for at least the first month of the season, so Jauan Jennings and Ronnie Bell will work in for three-wideout sets. Expect Jennings to see a couple targets, while Bell is more of an afterthought, having only 13 targets in his rookie campaign.
One of rookie fourth-rounder Jacob Cowing and veteran Chris Conley are likely to be inactive. So pay attention to the pregame announcements if you are doing any bargain hunting.
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Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
George Kittle is a huge part of the San Francisco running game as an elite blocker. That, along with so many other amazing pass-catchers on the team, tends to keep him under wraps. Last year he had his third career 1,000-yard season, with essentially six “spike” weeks, including three 100-plus yard games and, of course, his three touchdowns on three receptions against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Last year non-Kittle tight ends had only five combined targets, and all of them (Charlie Woerner 3, Ross Dwelley 2) are now in Atlanta. This is the sixth team in seven season for journeyman Eric Saubert, and he will share backup duties with Jake Tonges, who spent last year on the San Francisco practice squad after making the Chicago Bears as a rookie UDFA in 2022.
Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Jake Moody led the league with 60 extra points and 61 attempts as a rookie. He also was solid with an 84% conversion rate on field goals, including two of three from 50-plus yards.
Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1
Much like New York, San Francisco had 47 sacks last year against opposing quarterbacks, while the Jets ceded a whopping 3.8 per game. That number should go down with Rodgers under center, but there still will be opportunities for the home team to get in their licks. New York was also horrible on the turnover front with 33 last season, trailing only Cleveland and Minnesota. That number will also likely decrease, though the Niners had 28 takeaways, three off the league lead last season.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1 Monday Night Football: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Jets-49ers
- Breece Hall: Younger and healthier than CMC.
- Garrett Wilson: Likely to have consolidated looks, but the defense knows that as well.
- Christian McCaffrey: Slight knock for current health and potentially lighter workload. Could easily be an overreaction.
- Tyler Conklin: Strong point-per-dollar option on DraftKings; drops to the bottom of this section on FanDuel, though still very much in play.
- Jake Moody: We need salary savings and also field goals instead of PATs.
- Deebo Samuel: All he does is produce.
- Brock Purdy: He can get there with efficiency but really needs multiple touchdowns to reach profitability on his reasonable salary.
- Aaron Rodgers: Local kid back in the Bay Area.
- Brandon Aiyuk: Would have him flip-flopped with Samuel if he had not been holding out this summer.
- George Kittle: Epitome of boom/bust in single-game slates.
Secondary Options
- Greg Zuerlein: Legatron still getting it done after all these years.
- San Francisco D/ST: The Aaron Rodgers face could be the new Eli Manning face after a pick-six or scoop-and-score.
- Mike Williams: There will be easier matchups, and he should regain strength and confidence in his knee throughout the year.
- Jauan Jennings: Could easily get lost on a crossing route for some big yardage.
- Jordan Mason: Can be played on the same roster as McCaffrey, though “optimally” they should be separate.
Lottery Tickets
- Allen Lazard: NFL version of “it’s not what you can do, it is who you know.”
- Braelon Allen: Fine with or without Hall; does have standalone value, though true path to upside is via the contingency option if Hall goes down.
- New York D/ST: San Francisco offense does not allow for many sacks or turnovers.
- Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah, Eric Saubert and Jake Tonges: Backup tight ends gain superpowers in primetime games.
- Xavier Gipson, Malachi Corley, Ronnie Bell and Jacob Cowing: Grab bag of tertiary targets. Gipson is the main New York return man, while San Francisco has Bell slated for kickoff return duty and Cowing for punts.
- Kyle Juszczyk: Last year he had five carries for 8 yards, along with 17 targets for 14 catches, 119 yards and a pair of tuddies.
- Patrick Taylor Jr. and Isaac Guerendo: Meh.
- Isaiah Davis: Last guy with his own line; if he is inactive, slide up Abanikanda.
- Chris Conley, Israel Abanikanda, Irvin Charles, Jason Brownlee, Joe Namath and Joe Montana: Better luck next week.
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