Jaguars-Bills + Commanders-Bengals DFS Picks: Monday Night Mayhem Doubleheader! (Sept. 23)

Monday Night Football brings the first doubleheader of the season, which also means the first two-game featured slate, one that will create ample opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Monday Night Mayhem for Week 3 with the Jaguars-Bills and Commanders-Bengals comprising the player pool. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Monday Night Mayhem DFS Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks

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With complete coverage of the doubleheader Monday Night Football matchups — Jaguars-Bills and Commanders-Bengals — let’s break down the top plays and strategies for this exciting slate.

Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 3: Jayden Daniels

Tonight as a 7.5-point road dog, it is going to be a long row to hoe for Daniels to get his team on a winning streak, but considering how many road warrior victories occurred on Sunday, it is not out of the realm of possibility.

The key for Daniels is he has to avoid taking the big hits that have already occurred over the first two games; otherwise he may suffer the same fate that Anthony Richardson did in his rookie campaign. Daniels has at least been spreading the ball around, as the wideouts lead the way with 55% of the targets, tight ends are seeing 19% and running backs are getting 26%. This shows some promise that the young signal-caller is not locking in on his first read.

Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Mayhem

While Daniels gets the featured callout, it is actually his counterpart Joe Burrow that has the better matchup against the porous Washington defense. The Commanders do not have safeties who are capable of covering any receivers, and even providing coverage support over the top has been a challenge for Quan Martin (hamstring) and Jeremy Chinn. Cornerback Benjamin St-Juste (groin) is probable, though Emmanuel Forbes (thumb) is questionable.

Touchdowns have been the main issue for Washington, with the team already allowing six — four in the opener to Baker Mayfield and two last week to Daniel Jones. Burrow tossed a pair of tuddies last week, and he should reach that milestone at a minimum tonight.

Josh Allen ran nine times in the first game of the season, collecting 39 yards and two touchdowns. Last week he only needed to run twice with the game well in hand against Miami. He also has not really needed to throw the ball, though he has been efficient, completing 31 of 42 (74%) for three touchdowns. The 371 total yards are not much but should continue to tick up against better opponents.

Unfortunately for Allen and Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville may not be one of those better opponents. The Jaguars dropped their first two games, managing to score only 15 points per effort. The defense is not really the problem, with the Jags giving up 20 points in Miami and then 18 against Cleveland. The Bills gave up 162 aerial yards and a score to Kyler Murray, then Miami totaled 225 yards, with 145 going to Tua Tagovailoa, along with three interceptions prior to him sadly bruising his brain yet again.

1. Burrow: If he has both of his key pass-catchers, this could be some pinball scoring on both sides.
2. Daniels: Please stay safe out there, Kid.
3. Allen: Will he be pushed tonight?
4. Lawrence: Ummmm, 26 of 51 (51%), 382 yards and one touchdown through two weeks isn’t going to get it done. Positives are 53 rushing yards but on only a trio of totes, plus no interceptions, but the team is floundering under coach Doug Pederson.

Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 3: James Cook

The real question is who will be his backup: Rookie Ray Davis, who has played 20 snaps, or veteran Ty Johnson, who has tallied one more play but at least has been in the league since 2019 and saw offensive looks in seven games last year, which was his first with the Bills.

Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Mayhem

Travis Etienne Jr. is not in a committee, which gets him some extra love on the two-game primetime slate. He was on the field for 37 and 43 offensive plays in the first two games, basically 70% of the action. DFS gamers are well versed in his positives and his foibles. In his favor, he is competent in all aspects of the running back position. Working against him is that he holds the power of invisibility in crucial spots.

Tank Bigsby missed Week 2 with a shoulder injury and is questionable for Monday. He logged 17 snaps in Week 1, being supplanted by D’Ernest Johnson for 17 snaps in Week 2. The twist is that only these three running backs have taken the field on offense for Jacksonville, which cements the status of Etienne.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have the former Clemson Tiger and, of course, college teammate of Lawrence for 15.82 carries, 63.63 rushing yards, 4.41 targets, 3.21 receptions and 23.3 yards for his statistical baseline. He has nearly a 50% chance of scoring a touchdown as well.

Things turn to a committee after this pair of lead backs, which brings salary savings and added uncertainty.

Since we have a pair of shared backfields, why not look to the Commies first? While second-year man Brian Robinson Jr. does have 14 more offensive plays than offseason addition Austin Ekeler, each has seven targets in the first two games, continuing the mirror situation with four and three each in the first two battles. Robinson is the clear favorite in the rushin’ attack with 29 totes for 173 yards and a score. We know that Ekeler is capable in all facets of the game, but on his new team, off various injuries and closing in on his 30th birthday, DFS gamers should go with the young whippersnapper as the preferred option until proven otherwise.

For all the offseason hullabaloo, it is NOT Chase Brown in the driver’s seat by any stretch of the imagination. Yes, I was part of the wish-casting crew hoping to pick up a winning lottery ticket in NFL Best Ball, but thankfully, I also was happy to scoop up the well-traveled Zack Moss. This is likely to be an infuriating situation while both are healthy. If one is out, the other is a fringe RB1. The 84-30 play advantage is clearly on the side of Moss, though it is not quite as dramatic in the later downs.

1. Cook: Until proven otherwise.
2. Etienne: Point per dollar is solid, though touchdowns could be tough to come by.
3. Moss: King of the Hill for now. Contributes in all aspects of the game plan.
4. Ekeler: Lack of popularity pushes him above Robinson on DraftKings.
5. Robinson: Flip with Ekeler in half-PPR on FanDuel at a mere $300 separation.
6. Brown: Needs something to happen to Moss before moving up the ranks.
7. Davis/Johnson: Mop-up duty is likely to be a thing this season against Jacksonville.

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Pass Catcher NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 3: Ja’Marr Chase

While on FanDuel, Khalil Shakir (8.91) is the only player within 7 fantasy points in the half-PPR scoring system. However, because Cincinnati fans are not allowed to have anything nice, there is still trepidation in recommending Chase. Despite being worth many billions of dollars, the Bengals ownership group has cashflow issues, which seems to be preventing them from getting Chase the contract he deserves. Fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins is in a similar situation.

Higgins has yet to suit up, though he did get in a full practice on Saturday and is trending towards being available as he recovers from a hamstring issue. Chase has voiced his understandable disappointment in not having a new contract, though he was on the field for 84% and 92% of the offensive plays in the first two games. DFS gamers should continue to ride with Chase as a top option, despite his lack of volume on the season. In the first two games, the otherworldly receiver has 11 targets for 10 receptions and 97 yards with no touchdowns.

Higgins, on the other hand, has disappointed multiple times over the course of his career on primetime slates due to shaky injury reporting. Blustery gamers will use the trope of “Scared money don’t make money.” But, of course, they will also be whining the loudest when things do not go their way.

Washington has already allowed six aerial scores, which is one fewer than the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams, who have already played their third game. That is what makes this matchup so enticing for the Cincy passing game, so let your own personal preference and risk tolerance be the ultimate deciding factor.

Pass Catchers Preview for Monday Night Mayhem

Rounding out the analysis for the Bengals, Andrei Iosivas has seen 10 targets over the first two tilts for five receptions for a disappointing 33 yards. Last Sunday, he did turn his two receptions into a pair of touchdowns, albeit with only 7 yards. Trenton Irwin jumped from two targets to six, though he is likely to take the biggest hit with the return of Higgins. Rookie Jermaine Burton has basically been invisible, allegedly stepping on the field four times in the opener but seeing no targets. Last week he had 10 offensive snaps with two targets going his way, resulting a solid 47-yard reception. Things should turn around for the former Alabama star, but it could take some time in this dysfunctional organization.

Washington and Jacksonville are also known for putting the fun in dysfunction, so there is not much solace turning to these passing games led by a rookie who is finding his sea legs and Lawrence now starting his fourth NFL campaign. Lawrence made the Pro Bowl in his second season while also leading the Jaguars to a pair of playoff games. That was the highwater mark for the top selection of the 2021 NFL Draft, who has regressed over the subsequent 18 games.

1. Chase: Hard to argue with him as the top option, considering the lack of alternatives. This does leave things wide open for tournaments by choosing other paths.
2. Shakir: Best quarterback and overall organization; needs to prove he is more than a one-trick pony.
3. McLaurin: Twelve targets on the season are not much, but it is double that of the next Washington wideout, Olamide Zaccheaus.
4. Brian Thomas Jr.: The lone bright spot for Jacksonville this season.
5. Christian Kirk: Two drops in the opener, seven combined targets through two games. Yikes.
6. Gabe Davis: Gets the early “Remember Me?!” game.
7. Higgins: Vaya con Dios, Mis Amigos.
8. Keon Coleman: With Buffalo cruising to a Week 2 victory against the Dolphins, the rookie slid from five to one target.
9. Iosivas: Still intriguing, though the return of Higgins likely will curb his already thin volume.
10. Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel: Journeymen who know their roles and have a capable quarterback.
11. Zaccheaus, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown: There was a double Brownout in the opener with zero targets to the duo, though Dyami had four in Week 2 and Noah got three. McCaffrey had three looks in Week 1 but none in the second game. Jamison Crowder played in the first game, though he gave way to Noah in the second. This is an unsettled situation for sure.

1. Dalton Kincaid: The most popular option, though there are ample discount dandies below him on the salary sheet.
2. Brenton Strange: Best point-per-dollar option with Evan Engram (hamstring) out; Strange had six targets as the replacement last week, second on the team behind the seven of Davis.
3. Zach Ertz: Steady presence for his rookie quarterback. Second-rounder Ben Sinnott has not been targeted but was on the field for 13 plays each of the first two games.
4. Mike Gesicki: Leads the Bengals with 13 targets; there is competition as the three other tight ends have combined for 10 looks, plus Higgins is back.
5. Dawson Knox: Only two targets, both in Week 1, with one being a red zone look.

Defense-Special Teams Preview for Monday Night Mayhem

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Facing a rookie in his first primetime game, on the road. Yes please!
2. Buffalo Bills: While Lawrence is not in any danger of being benched, he needs to snap out of this extended malaise. That will be a tough ask with the #BillsMafia in attendance tonight.
3. Washington Commanders: This unit is an unmitigated disaster, but this matchup is like looking in a mirror.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Game looking like it has moved beyond coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff.

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