NFL DFS Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel are a unique challenge that can pay off huge if you play them correctly. In these contests, you need to construct lineups from a single game, with the added twist of a multiplier spot that can make or break your chances of winning. Luckily, Stokastic’s Top Showdown Plays Tool is designed to navigate these challenges and maximize your chances of building a winning lineup by balancing ownership, upside and chances of being optimal. Here we will break down some basic NFL DFS Showdown strategy and explain how the Top Showdown Plays Tool can help you pick the best Captain and Flex positions with the help of Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and ownership projections.
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NFL DFS Showdown Plays Tool: How to Maximize Your Lineups
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Understanding Basic NFL DFS Showdown Captain Strategy
It’s important to understand the basic strategy behind NFL DFS Showdown contests. Obviously, there are plenty of nuances and advanced theory that can get you even further along — check out our comprehensive guide to NFL DFS Showdown — but this is the 101 to get you started if you haven’t tried NFL Showdown much.
Captain/MVP Spot: On DraftKings, you select a Captain who scores 1.5x the points but costs 1.5x the salary. On FanDuel, the MVP also scores 1.5x the points but does not have a salary multiplier. Selecting the right player for this spot is crucial because they not only need to be the highest scorer but also provide value relative to their cost.
Correlation: Building a lineup that makes sense in the context of how the game is likely to play out is key. For example, if you believe a game will be a high-scoring shootout, you might want to stack the quarterback with multiple pass catchers. Conversely, in a low-scoring, defensive battle, you might want to limit that stack to one pass catcher or focus on running backs, defense/special teams and kickers.
Ownership Leverage: In large-field tournaments, it’s important to differentiate your lineup from the competition — finishing high in a contest means little if your winning lineup ties (and thus splits the prize) with dozens of other users. If you can find a high-upside player who is likely to be lower owned, you gain massive leverage over the field if they perform well.
How The NFL Top Showdown Plays Tool Can Help
Stokastic’s Top Showdown Plays Tool is designed to optimize your lineup construction by providing detailed insights into each player’s likelihood of being the top scorer in the game and their value relative to their salary. Here’s how it works:
Probability of Being the Highest Scorer: The tool gives you the probability that each player will be the highest scorer on the slate. This is crucial for selecting your Captain/MVP because this spot carries the most weight in your lineup. For example, if a star quarterback has a 30% chance of being the highest scorer, they might be an ideal Captain/MVP choice despite their high salary.
Optimal Captain and Flex: For each player, the tool shows you how often they are in the optimal lineup as both a Captain and as a Flex. This information is based on results from thousands of simulations of the single game in question. For example, Christian McCaffrey has a Captain optimal percentage of 8.8%, whereas his Flex optimal percentage is 49.7%. That means that McCaffrey is in the best lineup possible almost half the time and optimal as a Captain less than once in 10 simulations.
Now, that does not necessarily mean McCaffrey is definitely a better Flex than a Captain in every single lineup you build — you have to also compare his Captain optimality with other players. That said, the odds of McCaffrey being in a winning lineup are better as a Flex.
Leverage: That brings us back to leverage, and the Top Showdown Plays Tool has a few different ways of showing leverage. The Leverage column adds up Captain and Flex optimal percentages and subtracts the combined ownership for each. That gives you an overall sense of a player’s value relative to their level of ownership.
But you can also compare leverage as a Captain and as a Flex. In the McCaffrey example, his 8.8% Captain optimality comes with 17.2% Captain ownership — strongly negative leverage. As a Flex, however, he has 48.5% ownership versus 49.7% Flex Optimality. So McCaffrey shows negative overall leverage but slightly positive leverage as a Flex.
Using the NFL DFS Top Showdown Plays Tool to Build Winning Lineups
Let’s break down how you can use Stokastic’s Top Showdown Plays Tool to construct your NFL DFS Showdown lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel:
Start with the Captain/MVP Spot: Begin by analyzing the tool’s probabilities for the highest scorer. Look for players with the highest percentage chances but also consider their salary-adjusted value, leverage and how they and others rate as a Flex. If a high-probability player is too expensive, you might find a lower-cost player with a slightly lower chance who allows you to build a more balanced lineup.
Fill in Flex Spots with High-Probability Players: After selecting your Captain/MVP, use the tool to identify the players with the best chances of being in the optimal lineup based on the remaining salary. Focus on the top-ranked players in the tool who fit within your salary constraints.
Consider Ownership Leverage: While the tool provides data-driven insights, remember that ownership is a key factor in large-field tournaments. If the tool identifies a player as a high-value pick but you expect them to be heavily owned, consider pivoting to a lower-owned player with similar upside. This could provide the leverage you need to differentiate your lineup from the field.
Conclusion
Stokastic’s Top Showdown Plays Tool is a powerful resource for NFL DFS players looking to gain an edge in DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel Single Game contests. By comparing ownership to projections, understanding the probability of each player being the top scorer, and evaluating salary-adjusted value, you can make informed decisions that maximize your lineup’s potential. Whether you’re playing in large-field tournaments or smaller cash games, this tool helps you navigate the complexities of NFL Showdown contests and gives you the best chance to build winning lineups.
