NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Buccaneers: Wild Card Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football brings a terrific matchup with a 50.5 projected total as the Washington Commanders (12-5) are in Tampa Bay for a Week 1 rematch against the Buccaneers (10-7), who are the host team by virtue of winning the NFC South. The lofty total and slim 3.0-point spread for this Wild Card Weekend matchup call for precise NFL DFS decision making. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, giving you everything you need to craft winning lineups for the SNF slate.

Prepare for Sunday Night Football with expert picks from Tails By OddsShopper. Access premium picks and strategies from industry leaders to dominate the Commanders-Buccaneers Wild Card Weekend showdown!

NFL DFS Picks: Commanders-Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Wild Card Weekend

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Wild Card Weekend: Jayden Daniels

Even better, Daniels had six rushing scores against four from Jackson. Daniels’ 891 yards on the ground were the most for a rookie field general, while former leader Robert Griffin III led in yards per game 54.3 to 52.4 in two fewer tilts. Though, the former Baylor Bear had seven touchdowns in his inaugural campaign, topping the six of Daniels this season.

Daniels had at least nine carries in his last four full games, leading him to have a hand in most of the Washington fantasy production. On the flipside, while he topped 270 passing yards only twice (326 in Week 8 against Chicago and 275 in Week 12 against Dallas), he tossed multiple touchdowns in his final five full games. Aside from Terry McLaurin, the Commanders do not have much in the way of above-average pass-catchers, with veteran tight end Zach Ertz the next most reliable target.

The Tampa Bay secondary has been decimated by injuries; although safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) is expected to be available, cornerback Jamel Dean (knee) and safety Mike Edwards (quad) are going to be game-time decisions. Bryce Hall, Troy Hill and Christian Izien are all on the injured reserve, while Jordan Whitehead was in a car accident and ruled out for Sunday’s game.

Vita Vea and the front seven have been shutting down opposing rushing attacks for the last two months, so hopefully Washington will not waste too many drives before going to the air. Washington was fifth in the league with 28.5 points per game, while Tampa Bay was in the middle of the pack, allowing 22.6 points per game. The Buccaneers gave up 27 aerial scores against just 13 rushing touchdowns.

Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Brian Robinson Jr. will have company with veteran Austin Ekeler returning from injured reserve last week, having missed a month on injured reserve. The veteran running back suffered his second concussion of the season while returning a kickoff in Week 12, which led to Robinson seeing increased passing work and Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. playing secondary roles.

Robinson has lost out on rushing opportunities to Daniels, and now his receiving role is likely to be reduced as well. That in conjunction with a tough matchup makes him a tricky player to evaluate. The third-year back did have eight touchdowns this season, but he had just two in the latter half of the season, with Week 13 being the last time he reached pay dirt.

Ekeler has a $3,500 discount on FanDuel and a $3,200 savings on DraftKings. That has him as the more appealing option, though he has really only played in 10 games for Washington, excluding Week 18. He is the better pass-protection option, but Robinson and even McNichols have more familiarity with Daniels.

Wide Receiver | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

McLaurin wrapped up his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, accompanied by a career-high 13 touchdowns. This earned him his second Pro Bowl nomination while also landing him Second-Team All-Pro honors. In his rookie campaign, he tallied 919 receiving yards in 14 games, just missing out on the 1,000 milestone and being the player chasing down Mike Evans for most consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards to start a career.

Third-round rookie Luke McCaffrey has been slow to adjust to the NFL, and it was Houston castoff Noah Brown who actually took over the WR2 role, despite being a last-minute addition to Washington. Dyami Brown has been less than dynamic, disappearing for weeks at a time. After Noah Brown was lost for the season, McCaffrey and Dyami were so disappointing that veteran Jamison Crowder worked his way into the rotation, averaging 27 offensive snaps per game since the Week 14 bye, which is about the same as McCaffrey and Dyami.

There is one bright spot with Olamide Zaccheaus asserting himself into the secondary role, scoring three touchdowns in the final three games of the season. This also has bumped his DFS salary cap hit, so he really needs to score a touchdown in order to be a viable play.

Tight End | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Rookie Ben Sinnott has done nothing this year, looking like a wasted second-round selection. There is still time for the Kansas State product to improve his lot, but it is going to take a strong offseason. He was on the field for eight or fewer plays in four of the last seven games, and he has a scant five targets on the season. John Bates will be on the field for at least half of the snaps, though he will be tasked with blocking. He did have one target in each of the last four games, and, of course, being on the field is paramount.

Ertz is second on the team with 91 targets, converting his opportunities into 66 receptions, 654 yards and a splendiferous seven touchdowns. The team essentially brought in the former Stanford Cardinal to provide veteran guidance for Sinnott and be a reliable target for Daniels. To his credit, he actually finished as a top-8 tight end, falling just shy of the Tier 1 options.

Kicker | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Zane Gonzalez was out of the league for two years before landing on the Washington practice squad in early November. To his credit, he got the call up to the active roster to replace Austin Seibert, who was injured in early November and then again in early December.

Gonzalez meandered his way through Cleveland, Arizona and Carolina, falling out of favor with his inability to connect from beyond 45 yards. That is a problem in today’s NFL, especially with so many bionic legs populating more and more teams over the last half decade. Gonzalez is 11 of 19 (58%) from 50-plus yards for his career, which just won’t cut it in today’s NFL.

Defense | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

The Commanders were solid this season, racking up 43 sacks. That is similar to the 40 Tampa Bay ceded, so there could be some fantasy opportunities for this unit. The Bucs had 23 total turnovers, which was in the bottom third of the league, though Washington may not be able to capitalize as the Commanders averaged only one takeaway per tilt this season.

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Wild Card Weekend: Mike Evans

If you are a Washington fan, you are hoping that Lattimore gets under Evans’ skin, with a potential ejection in the cards. If you are a DFS gamer who is backing Evans, which we should be, this is a terrifying prospect. Sporting News has a fun article detailing the history of this kerfuffle.

Setting all of that aside, Evans is a terrific option for all Wild Card Weekend formats. However, tonight his lofty salary — which is the second highest on DraftKings and third overall on FanDuel — makes for an interesting decision point.

Rookie Jalen McMillan stepped up over the last seven games after missing four of the first nine with injuries. The third-round selection from the University of Washington has helped Tampa fans almost forget the loss of Chris Godwin, which is a feat unto itself. McMillan had a touchdown in the opener against the Commanders back in Week 1, then he went quiet, reemerging down the stretch with seven touchdowns in the last five games. He has a hefty 40% discount on DraftKings and a 30% savings on FanDuel as compared to Evans. Depending on the effectiveness of Lattimore, extra volume may head towards McMillan.

Veteran Sterling Shepard has consolidated the WR3 role, with Trey Palmer and Rakim Jarrett being afterthoughts, even for single-game contests.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Baker Mayfield is no Tom Brady, but he continues to be a solid quarterback in his own right. The NFL nomad averaged the third-most passing yards per game (264.7) this season, while his 41 touchdowns were tied with Lamar Jackson, trailing only Joe Burrow (43). He still throws more interceptions (16, which were the most in the league) and takes more sacks (40) than the team would like to see, but he also has the Buccaneers in the playoffs for the second straight season.

Mayfield tossed multiple touchdowns in 12 games this season and added three more rushing scores. In his favor, Washington has not faced a top-tier quarterback since Jalen Hurts in Week 11, and prior to that it was Jackson back in Week 6. There is a good argument to be made that Mayfield is worthy of the multiplier slot for those crafting more than a dozen lineups tonight.

Running Back | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

In a must-win game last Sunday to clinch the NFC South, Rachaad White was on the field for 18 offensive plays and received exactly zero opportunities. Rookie Bucky Irving posted a season-high 72% snap share, while Sean Tucker was in the mix for a scant seven plays. Irving saw all five running back targets, catching two for negative-5 yards. He had 19 of the 21 carries for 89 yards and a score, and Tucker got two for 16 yards.

Irving is only 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, so he is far from a “bell cow” back. However, with the season on the line, it makes sense for Tampa Bay to get its best back the ball with greater frequency. The former Oregon Duck is a capable pass catcher, and while he is not particularly shifty, he can take what his linemen give him and he does have a burst at the second level.

White is unlikely to be shut out again tonight, though it is hard to see him with more than a handful of opportunities if this is a contested game.

Tight End | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Cade Otton missed the last three games with a knee injury, but the former Washington Husky will be a go tonight. He really stepped up when Godwin and Evans went down with injuries, collecting 29 targets in the three games without that duo. Expect Otton to have a solid role tonight, particularly if Lattimore is able to clamp down on Evans.

Devin Culp is likely to be inactive, with Payne Durham and Ryan Miller serving as the TE2. Ko Kieft will be active, though he is more of a special teams player, and even if he sees a few offensive plays, he did not get any targets this year on his 104 snaps.

Kicker | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Chase McLaughlin has spent time with seven franchises in his six seasons, including stops with the Chargers, 49ers, Colts (twice), Jaguars and Jets. He was able to secure a regular role in Cleveland in 2021 then held down the kicking duties for Indianapolis in 2022. Last year he joined Tampa Bay, and in his four seasons a full-time kicker, he has been stellar on point after touchdowns (converting on 144 of 147, 98%) and from beyond 50 yards (splitting the uprights on 28 of 34, 82%).

Defense | Commanders-Buccaneers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round

Daniels has been sacked a whopping 47 times this season, including 16 in the last four games. To his credit, the rookie has just nine interceptions, but he also has not played in a pressure-packed game against a veteran defense with the season on the line. The Pewter Pirates tied for sixth on the sack leaderboard (46) while averaging around one takeaway per tilt.

NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Wild Card Round: Rankings

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Now let’s dive into the final rankings for the Commanders-Buccaneers Sunday Night Football slate!

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders-Buccaneers

1. Jayden Daniels: Captain, My Captain.
2. Bucky Irving: Wow, two rookies topping the DFS rankings is impressive.
3. Mike Evans: Would still land here even without the Lattimore angle, as his salary is in the stratosphere.
4. Terry McLaurin: Will be the focus of the Tampa Bay coverage schemes.
5. Zach Ertz: Solid touchdown equity.
6. Baker Mayfield: Hard to build lineups without him.
7. Chase McLaughlin: Unsung hero, plus we need salary relief.
8. Jalen McMillan: Can he keep the magic moving along for another game?
9. Olamide Zaccheaus: Looks like the WR2 and works mostly out of the slot for Washington.
10. Cade Otton: No salary relief for the injury; this in turn is keeping his popularity in check.

Secondary Options

1. Austin Ekeler: Significant salary savings as compared to Robinson.
2. Brian Robinson Jr.: In the last five games where both he and Ekeler were healthy, Robinson was on the field for less than half of the offensive action.
3. Zane Gonzalez: There is a reason he is not able to stick in the league.
4. Tampa Bay D/ST: Suspect secondary but good pass pressure against a rookie who takes sacks trying to make things happen.
5. Rachaad White: He won’t be shut out again, though he is clearly behind Irving.

Lottery Tickets

1. Washington D/ST: Houston reminded everyone yesterday that D/STs have a wide range of fantasy outcomes.
2. Sterling Shepard: Gamers are not flocking to roster him (cwidt).
3. Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey: Longshots, but they project for 3.4 combined targets. McCaffrey returns kickoffs with McNichols.
4. John Bates, Payne Durham, Ryan Miller and Jeremy McNichols: Will at least be on the field.
5. Sean Tucker and Trey Palmer: Need something to befall one of the starters or mop-up duty. Tucker returns kickoffs with Jarrett, and Palmer returns punts.
6. Jamison Crowder, Ko Kieft, Ben Sinnott, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Chris Moore, Devin Culp and Rakim Jarrett: If they beat us, so be it.

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