Monday Night Football brings a fun matchup with a 47.5 projected total as the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams do battle in Arizona. The solid total and slight 2.0-point spread for this Wild Card matchup call for some real NFL DFS decision making to craft winning lineups, so we are going to break down key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you on this MNF slate.
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NFL DFS Picks: Vikings-Rams Wild Card Monday Night Football
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NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Rams Wild Card Monday Night Football: Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.95
FanDuel: 17.19
In what the fantasy community considered a “down year,” Justin Jefferson earned his fourth Pro Bowl nod and made First-Team All-Pro for the second time. He was second in the league with 90.2 yards per game, sixth with 10 touchdown and first with 28 plays of at least 20-plus yards.
Oh, and he managed to do all of this with a castoff quarterback who was thrust into prominence with rookie J.J. McCarthy lost for the season after suffering a knee injury in training camp.
The Los Angeles defense had success against wideouts down the stretch, with only A.J. Brown (7 targets, 6 receptions, 109 yards and 1 touchdown) and Khalil Shakir (8 targets, 5/106/1) topping 100 receiving yards in the final nine games. Tight end Trey McBride also got there in Week 17, though it took 16 targets to get his 12 receptions, 123 yards and a score.
Jordan Addison was second on the team with 99 targets, collecting 66 in the final eight games. Addison missed two of the first four game, but he has become an excellent wingman for Jefferson and is a threat in his own right with his speed and fearlessness across the middle of the field. Jalen Nailor contributed six touchdowns on just 43 targets. He has consolidated the WR3 role, culminating in nine targets, eight receptions, 134 yards and a score over the final two tilts.
Trent Sherfield Sr. and Brandon Powell will each be on the field for a handful of snaps, though this duo has combined for 19 targets on the season, with each seeing only one in the last five games.
Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview
Sam Darnold | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Sam Darnold was stellar this season, making the Pro Bowl and setting himself up for a major payday next year. Minnesota will need to decide if it wants to put the franchise tag on him or let the rest of the league bid on his services. Coach Kevin O’Connell was able to put Darnold in a position to succeed, though the third overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft still has weaknesses. Fortunately, the Rams do not blitz often and typically play zone coverages, which bodes well for Darnold. Los Angeles could always look to shake things up, though revamping a defensive approach this late in the season is not without risk.
Darnold is not afraid to run, but it is not a priority. That makes it tougher to see him end up as a success in the multiplier slot, but he is definitely a core Flex play.
Running Back | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Cam Akers and Ty Chandler were each dealing with an illness this week, though both are expected to be available tonight. However, Akers is still on the injury report as questionable.
Veteran Aaron Jones continues to get the high-value touches, but Akers has worked his way into around one-third of the role after rejoining the team upon the Houston Texans releasing him. That relegated Chandler to afterthought status after he played a pivotal role down the stretch last year when Akers was injured.
Though Jones had his usual myriad of injuries, he played in all 17 games, logging a career-high 1,138 rushing yards and having his typically strong season as a receiver, with 62 targets for 51 catches, 408 yards and two touchdowns. Even without Aaron Donald (retirement), the Rams saw only three opposing running backs clear 100 yards, though one of those games was Saquon Barkley‘s 26-carry, 255-yard, two-tuddy performance in Week 12. Jones should push for 80 combined yards tonight, and 100 is attainable.
Keep tabs on Akers, and if it sounds like his illness will not limit him, he is an interesting discount dandy against the team that drafted him.
Tight End | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
T.J. Hockenson did not take the field until Week 9, but he still finished third on the team with 62 targets, tying Jones. Hockenson did not score a touchdown, though he did have five games of at least 45 receiving yards, including 114 against Chicago.
Josh Oliver will be on the field for around half of the snaps, but he has just six targets over the last seven games. Johnny Mundt will be the TE3, though it would be a surprise to see him between the lines on offense for more than a dozen plays.
Kicker | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Rookie Will Reichard is used to pressure, having been a sixth-round selection out of Alabama. He missed time in November with a quad injury, but that is no longer a concern. He has a big leg, converting on 8 of 11 (73%) from beyond 50 yards and posting an 84% touchback rate on kickoffs.
Defense | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Minnesota was fourth this season, collecting 49 sacks, though the Rams allowed the sixth fewest (31). The Vikings love to blitz and bring pressure from all levels, which had them tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers (33) for the most takeaways in the league. Los Angeles had the fourth-fewest turnovers (14), making this a strength-versus-strength chess match.
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NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Rams Wild Card Monday Night Football: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 23.63
FanDuel: 18.36
Even though he was hurt in the opener and missed another five games, Puka Nacua has proven that he is far from a one-trick pony, leading the Rams with 106 targets while ranking third overall with 90.0 yards per game.
The only disappointing fantasy angle is that the second-year wideout had a scant three touchdowns. On the flipside, in his 10 games after returning to action, he tallied 98-plus yards and/or a touchdown seven times.
Cooper Kupp had three targets in the final three games of the season prior to the Rams resting their key players for Week 18. In the seven preceding games, he averaged 9.1 targets, so this is likely noise. Also, there were only 78 total pass attempts in this trio of tilts, with Nacua hogging 31 (40%) of them.
Setting aside Week 18, Demarcus Robinson had only five targets in four games, with no receptions. Yes, he had six looks for three catches and 72 yards in Week 18, but that was with all of the key skill-position players resting and Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. Tutu Atwell should see a schemed play or two, which keeps him on the radar. Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington and Xavier Smith project for 1.1 combined opportunities, with one of them likely to be inactive.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Matthew Stafford keeps chugging along, though it appeared that the team was considering testing the trade market for him and Kupp. It’s a good thing the decision makers held off since the team went on a 9-2 run after the Week 6 bye. Stafford is well into the “game manager” phase of his lengthy career, but the 36-year-old is also unflappable and should at least be able to make some plays against the relentless Minnesota defense. The future Hall of Famer tossed four touchdowns against the Vikings in a 30-20 Week 7 victory, and while that was a lifetime ago in NFL terms, it still has to provide confidence.
Running Back | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Rookie Blake Corum was going to be the featured back in Week 18, but he was on the field for only 12 plays before breaking his arm. That means Ronnie Rivers is now the RB2, and prior to last week, he had not taken any offensive snaps since Week 4.
Kyren Williams should be fresher now that he has had two weeks off, and he is going to see most, if not all, of the running back touches. While the Vikings defense is tough, it can be exploited on cutbacks when it over-pursues. Williams is not big at 5-foot-9 and 202 pounds, nor is he fast with a 4.65 40-yard dash time. However, he is doggedly determined, and that has served him well during his two NFL campaigns.
This year the former Notre Dame Golden Domer was fifth with 16 total touchdowns, which were one more than the 15 of his rookie season. He is a capable pass-catcher, though he had just 40 targets this season, down from 48 as a rookie.
Tight End | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Four different players will be taking the field at the tight end position for Los Angeles, making this a convoluted situation for DFS gamers. Colby Parkinson is technically the leader, though the return of Tyler Higbee in Week 16 has really made things crowded. Hunter Long is a good blocker, while Davis Allen is more of a pass-catcher, but all three ceded snaps to Higbee. The final indictment for this motley crew is that all four played in Week 18, with the “good” players sitting out in preparation for tonight’s game.
Kicker | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Joshua Karty has had an uneven rookie season, though the sixth-round selection out of Stanford converted on his last 13 field goal attempt, including three from 50-plus yards. Point after touchdowns have been an adventure with four misses among his 36 opportunities, and his kickoffs have been so-so. He is in the mix tonight, but it would not be a surprise if he has to earn the starting gig again in training camp.
Defense | Vikings-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Monday Night Football
Darnold has been sacked 48 times this season, including 17 in the last five games. Los Angeles is averaging just over two sacks per game, which are a tick below league average. The Rams are in the middle of the pack with 20 takeaways, much like the Vikings are with 21 turnovers.
NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Rams Wild Card Monday Night Football: Rankings
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Now let’s dive into the final rankings for the Vikings-Rams Monday Night Football slate!
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Vikings-Rams
- Puka Nacua: Captain, My Captain.
- Justin Jefferson: There are so many expensive options in this matchup.
- Sam Darnold: One way to benefit from all of the passing production is to focus on Darnold. This is a better strategy on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring; drop him down three spots for DraftKings.
- Kyren Williams: Literally may get every running back touch for the Rams.
- Jordan Addison: Solid fantasy point-per-dollar play; unlikely to be blanked for a second consecutive game.
- Aaron Jones: Nobody ever seems to guess right, though at least he didn’t have many monster touchdown games this season.
- Will Reichard: Easily outclasses his rookie counterpart, plus we need the salary savings.
- T.J. Hockenson: Another strong fantasy point-per-dollar play.
- Cooper Kupp: Projecting as the 10th-most popular player on both DraftKings (23.2%) and FanDuel (24.1%); here is where we make our stand!
- Matthew Stafford: Meh.
Secondary Options
- Joshua Karty: Maybe he has turned the corner?
- Cam Akers: If there are no health concerns, he moves above Stafford on both DraftKings ($4,400) and FanDuel ($7,500).
- Minnesota D/ST: Live for a return touchdown.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Darnold will give up at least a couple of sacks.
- Ronnie Rivers: Not much standalone value, but he is cheap.
Lottery Tickets
- Tutu Atwell: Should get a touch or two.
- Jalen Nailor: Will get the scraps the big four do not take.
- Demarcus Robinson: Getting on the field is half the battle.
- Josh Oliver: Definitely will play, though well down the pecking order for touches.
- Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and Hunter Long: Close your eyes and pick one if you must.
- C.J. Ham: Two carries for 10 yards and a score this season, along with six targets for five receptions and 35 yards.
- Ty Chandler: Move up to Akers’ slot if he is out with illness. Also returns kickoffs.
- Jordan Whittington and Xavier Smith: Whittington returns kickoffs, Smith handles punts.
- Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt, Cody Schrader, Trent Sherfield and Tyler Johnson: If this motley crew does us in, so be it.
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