Thursday Night Football brings a 42.5 projected total with the New York Jets 2-point favorites as they host the injury-riddled Houston Texans. This total and relatively close projected outcome add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Texans-Jets Thursday Night Football clash for Week 9, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.
NFL DFS Picks: Texans-Jets Thursday Night Football Week 9
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NFL DFS Picks for Texans-Jets Thursday Night Football Week 9: Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $16,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.55
FanDuel: 16.58
Joe Mixon missed Weeks 3, 4 and 5, but he has been stellar when healthy with 100.6 rushing yards per game, trailing only Derrick Henry (118.3) and Saquon Barkley (109.4).
Expect Mixon to be on the field for around 70% of the snaps, with something approaching 20-plus carries. He had 30 in the opener, nine in the game where he was hurt, 13 in his return to action and 25 totes each of the last two weeks.
New York has dealt with a lot of injuries on defense, and tonight it will be without defensive backs Ashtyn Davis, Tony Adams and Chuck Clark, though D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II are both expected to play and, along with Sauce Gardner, make one of the best coverage backfields in the league. Zaire Barnes, C.J. Mosley, Leki Fotu and Jermaine Johnson are members of the front seven who are out, though Mosley is the only starter.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football saw the Pittsburgh Steelers rack up 149 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries, exposing the New York rushing defense. Last Sunday, the Jets allowed 112 yards on 31 carries but also suffered the indignity of Rhamondre Stevenson tallying two tuddies, with quarterback Drake Maye getting one as well prior to his concussion.
Even without two of their top pass-catchers, the Texans are far better than the Steelers or Patriots, and C.J. Stroud and Company should provide enough of a threat that New York will be at risk of giving up big plays if they stack the box too often against the run.
Dare Ogunbowale has held steady with his snap share around 25% in games where Mixon is healthy. That doesn’t leave much for J.J. Taylor, who is the likely next man up with Dameon Pierce injured once again. On DraftKings, Taylor is at the $200 minimum, though it would be a surprise for him to get more than a couple opportunities.
Houston Texans Positional Preview
Quarterback | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
C.J. Stroud will be without rising star Nico Collins for a fourth consecutive game as he convalesces from his hamstring injury. Stefon Diggs has been lost for the season with a knee injury, and while he was not at his apex level when he dominated the league with Buffalo from 2020 to 2022, his loss will still be felt.
Stroud does have options, though the lack of dominating depth and his sophomore struggles have been well noted. He has 19-plus fantasy points in only three of his eight games, and with a career average of 10.9 rushing yards per game, if he is not throwing for beaucoup yards and multiple touchdowns, his fantasy backers are in for a rough time.
Wide Receiver | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Tank Dell is literally the last man standing, which hopefully means volume heading his way — along with the attention of most of the New York defensive backfield. Since returning after a Week 4 absence, Dell has four, nine, four and four targets. He should be closer to eight tonight, which gives him the potential to be a key DFS contributor.
Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III had the biggest increases in snap share after Collins was lost, though veteran Robert Woods missed two of those games, coming back last week with a 34% snap share. Best guess is that Hutchinson will be on the field for around 70% of the offensive plays, with Metchie and Woods each seeing 30% to 50% of the snaps.
Hutchinson is a player the team likes, but he was only a sixth-rounder last season coming out of Iowa State, which is not exactly a pass-happy offense. Metchie did have four targets, though he has only five on the season. Woods had two looks, and last year he was more involved when Diggs was still with the Bills. Any of this trio could see zero or half a dozen opportunities and it would not be much of a surprise.
Tight End | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Dalton Schultz allocated for a 20.8% target share, 6.61 targets, 4.39 receptions, 45.4 yards and a 30% probability of scoring a touchdown. For the season, he has 38 of the 50 targets to the tight end position.
Cade Stover had a season-high three targets last week, though he has only nine on the season. He is likely to be on the field for nearly half of the snaps, as Houston is going to need extra blocking against the New York pass rush.
Teagan Quitoriano was a fifth-round selection last year, though the former Oregon State Beaver has only 17 career targets, with just three this season in his three games.
Kicker | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Ka’imi Fairbairn has been outstanding over the last two-plus seasons, making 20 of 22 field goals from 50 or more yards while converting on 93.8% of all attempts during this timeframe. He has missed only one extra point during this stretch, making him one of the best kickers in the league.
Defense | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Houston has had 12 sacks, five interceptions and four fumble recoveries over the last three weeks. New York has allowed 18 sacks this season, with just over one turnover per tilt. The Texans are in the middle of the pack with 1.5 takeaways per game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Texans-Jets Thursday Night Football Week 9: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.77
FanDuel: 15.61
The New York schadenfreude has been strong with the Yankees losing the World Series last night and, of course, the Aaron Rodgers saga.
Over the last three weeks, owner Woody Johnson has fired the coach, seen the interim coach demote offensive play caller Nathaniel Hackett, orchestrate a trade for Rodger’s favorite receiver Davante Adams and watched the team fall to 2-6.
The return to health of several key defensive players will help, but the team now has just over a 10% probability of making the playoffs. Rodgers does have five multi-touchdown games in his eight appearances, but he is still looking for his first 300-yard outing and has topped 250 yards only twice.
Houston has been strong against the pass, with no quarterbacks clearing 250 passing yards, though the Texans have allowed five multi-touchdown efforts. The Jets are going to find success on offense at some point, right? Given two great running backs, multiple key pass-catchers and even an older Rodgers, they should still be able to do something with this collection of skill-position players.
New York Jets Positional Preview
Running Back | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
At least per the fantasy pundits, it appeared that Breece Hall was going to be back to “bell cow” status. This was after rookie Braelon Allen saw his snap share slide from a season-high 36% in Week 4, to 26%, to 19% and then 9% in Week 7. So of course, last week he was back on the field for 31% of the plays.
This led to Allen seeing 12 carries for 31 yards and the lone backfield touchdown. Hall still had 16 carries for 80 yards and three targets, with one 9-yard reception. Things are not as dire as they seem for Hall and if he had scored the touchdown, there were be less handwringing than there is today in the fantasy football world.
Houston has allowed the lead ball carrier for the opposing team to rush for 76-plus yards in five of the last six games. The Jets duo has a lock on the overall workload and snap share, with Isaiah Davis having been between the lines for only four offensive plays and just one in the last five games.
Wide Receiver | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Allen Lazard is injured, so that means one fewer favorite target for Rodgers tonight. That should boost both Garrett Wilson and Adams, who has not really made much noise on the field in his first two games as a Jet. Last week Mike Williams was on the field for 58% of the snaps, which tied his second-best outing of the season, though he had nary a look from Rodgers.
There is the chance some other receiving-starved squads may look to trade for Williams, so perhaps a showcase target or two is in order? This feels a bit like a manufactured narrative with Williams on a one-year deal, but if he really is not in their plans, a last-round pick or some sort of pick swap may be more intriguing to the organization than keeping him around for depth.
Rookie Malachi Corley had six of his eight offensive plays last week, though his lone target and reception was all the way back in Week 2, with the youngster being inactive for a few games in between. Xavier Gipson will be active as the main kick returner, but he had a couple of adventures the last time New York was playing in primetime, so he too is on thin ice.
Tight End | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Tyler Conklin is fourth on the team with 38 targets, though he has slipped to 3.7 on average over the last three games. Third-year man Jeremy Ruckert has three targets in two of the last three tilts, and he has been on the field for around 40% of the snaps that Conklin has seen.
The team does not run at lot of two-tight end sets, and with Conklin on the field over 85% of the time, Ruckert only has half of his playing time as the solo tight end. Conklin does have one red zone opportunity in each of the last five games, with Ruckert’s lone high-value target occurring back in Week 2.
Kicker | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
Tonight either Riley Patterson or Spencer Shrader will be elevated from the practice squad to replace Greg Zuerlein, who is out with an injury. Patterson has 39 games under his belt over the last three seasons, playing for Detroit, Jacksonville, Detroit again and Cleveland. Shrader was the Indianapolis kicker for the first week of the season, replacing Matt Gay.
Defense | Texans-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9
The Jets have only six takeaways this season, which does not bode well, as the Texans have only eight turnovers. Sacks are about the same for each squad, with New York recording 24 (sixth most) and Houston allowing 23 (fifth most), making this a strong point for the J-E-T-S, jets, Jets, JETS!
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9: Rankings
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Now let’s jump into the final rankings for this Texans-Jets TNF slate.
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Texans-Jets
- Joe Mixon: Captain, My Captain!
- Aaron Rodgers: Hello darkness my old friend.
- Breece Hall: He is the RB1, right?!
- Tank Dell: Hopefully he will work out of the slot for some plays tonight in an effort to avoid Gardner’s coverage.
- Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams: Coinflip.
- Ka’imi Fairbairn: Strong option in all formats.
- C.J. Stroud: Some are wondering if last year was his highwater mark and fluky.
- Dalton Schultz: Still waiting for a touchdown as well as his first double-digit fantasy effort.
- New York D/ST: Would slide into the next section if this game were in Houston.
- Riley Patterson: Guessing the Jets will go with the more experienced kicker.
Secondary Options
- Tyler Conklin: Volume is weak, considering the overall time on the field.
- Braelon Allen: Lurking in the shadows like a specter.
- Houston D/ST: The look on Rodgers’ face after a pick-6 is priceless; perhaps we will get that gift tonight.
Lottery Tickets
- Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III and Robert Woods: If we knew which one was the WR2, the Secondary Options section would not be so barren.
- Cade Stover: Fourth-rounder out of Ohio State after five seasons; $1,600 salary on DraftKings is enticing.
- Jeremy Ruckert: Even cheaper than Stover at $1,000 — but more competition for targets than the thinned-out Texans.
- Dare Ogunbowale: Clear RB2 and in play, particularly on DraftKings ($2,000) where a couple of catches could get him there. FanDuel ($6,500) is a solid salary as well, but he would need a touchdown to make the optimal lineup on the blue site.
- Xavier Gipson and Mike Williams: Dressing up as Butterfingers and the Invisible Man tonight.
- J.J. Taylor: Likely would need something to happen to Mixon; otherwise it looks like Ogunbowale is secure as the RB2.
- Anthony Firkser, Steven Sims, Isaiah Davis, Malachi Corley, David Carr’s Car and Joe Namath’s fur coat: Happy Halloween!
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