Sunday Night Football has a 46.5 projected total as the Indianapolis Colts have benched their presumed franchise quarterback and now head into Minnesota to face the Vikings as 5-point road dogs. This change definitely adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Colts-Vikings matchup for Week 9 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Showdown DFS picks.
NFL DFS Picks: Colts-Vikings Sunday Night Football Week 9
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NFL DFS Picks for Colts-Vikings Sunday Night Football Week 9: Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.23
FanDuel: 15.06
What’s old is new again. In this case, that would be the resurgent Joe Flacco, who has supplanted Anthony Richardson as the new field general for Indianapolis. Back in 2018, Flacco started the first nine games of the season in Baltimore, eventually giving way to rookie Lamar Jackson. Denver was his next stop, and he started eight games for the Broncos landing on the injured reserve.
The next three years were spent in the Big Apple, where Flacco had four, one and four spot starts for the New York Jets. That brings us to last year, which we all remember well, as Flacco basically was out of the league prior to getting a call from the Cleveland Browns, who installed him as their starter in Week 13. That was a 36-19 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams; Flacco subsequently rattled off four consecutive 300-yard games, 11 touchdowns and seven picks, resulting in a winning streak that got the Browns into the playoffs.
The Colts turned to Flacco as an insurance policy for Richardson, who had an injury-shortened rookie campaign, and he again missed time this season. In Week 4, Flacco came off the bench to help Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh with a pair of touchdowns. He started the next two games winning one and losing one, but more importantly for DFS purposes, each was a multi-touchdown game. In 10 career starts for Indy, Richardson has 10 passing touchdowns. In two starts and one relief appearance this season, Flacco already has seven.
Minnesota likes to blitz and pressure quarterbacks, but the Vikings have also allowed the third-most passing yards in the league (263.0) and have ceded multiple touchdowns to the last four quarterbacks they have faced. Per ESPN, Flacco has the best yards per completion (14.8) against the blitz since the start of 2023, the fourth lowest sack rate (5.1%) and the best touchdown rate (13.3%).
Indianapolis Colts Positional Preview
Running Back | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Five different running backs have posted at least 70 combined yards against Minnesota this season, though the team has ceded only five combined touchdowns to the position. The Vikings are allowing only 83.9 rushing yards per game, which is the third lowest in the league, but that is also skewed by the team running off five wins to start the season and the offense putting plenty of points on the board.
Jonathan Taylor missed three games with a high-ankle sprain, though he was strong in his return to action, seeing an 81% snap share. The 25-year-old had 20 totes for 105 yards and a score, giving him five touchdowns and a trio of 100-yard performances through his five games.
While Taylor was out, former third-round selection Trey Sermon and undrafted second-year man Tyler Goodson had a 60/40 split in playing time. Last week Sermon dropped back to his secondary role, getting in on 10 plays, while Goodson stepped between the lines for two. Sermon had one target, which he converted into a 14-yard catch, Goodson did not see the ball.
Wide Receiver | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
In three games with Flacco, Josh Downs is averaging 10 targets, eight receptions and 72.3 yards, and he has a pair of touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. has not been quite as prolific, though he has either a touchdown or 100-plus yards in the three games with the venerable veteran under center.
Alec Pierce is more of a field stretcher, but Flacco can still get air under the ball. The main concern is that deep plays may not have time to develop with the Vikings blitzing just over 40% of the time this season. Rookie Adonai Mitchell and journeyman Ashton Dulin are each playing on around 20% of the snaps now that Downs is healthy.
Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have the target distribution broken out as 8.6 going to Downs, 7.9 to Pittman, 4.3 to Mitchell and 3.4 to Pierce. Taylor should see around three targets, though it looks like the tight ends are going to be left in the cold, with only six targets earmarked for the position.
Tight End | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
The Colts love playing tight ends, as four have seen action in each of the last five games. The playing time has been mostly consistent, with Mo Alie-Cox (46.4%), Drew Ogletree (34.3%), Kylen Granson (26.8%) and Will Mallory (15.6%) each curbing the upside of their compatriots. Cox has seven targets in the three games with Flacco, while Ogletree has four, and Granson and Mallory have three apiece.
Kicker | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Matt Gay does his best work inside of 50-yards, struggling with just nine conversion in his last 16 (56%) attempts from beyond 50 yards. In his last 65 games, Gay has 104 kicks from fewer than 50 yards and a phenomenal 94% success rate. He also has made 146 of 149 point after touchdown attempts in this timeframe.
Defense | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Indy has a paltry four sacks in the last four games and only 16 on the season. The Vikings are averaging just over three per game, though it is hard to get excited for this road matchup. The Colts have four interceptions and eight fumble recoveries, while Minnesota has suffered five of each.
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NFL DFS Picks for Colts-Vikings Sunday Night Football Week 9: Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.83
FanDuel: 16.75
Justin Jefferson is third in the league with 92.3 receiving yards per game, five touchdowns and 10 plays of 20-plus yards. Over the last four games, he is averaging just under 10 targets per tilt. For the season he has a touchdown or 92-plus yards in every game. Seven different wide outs and two tight ends have tallied 70 or more yards against the Colts this season.
The Colts do not have much of a pass rush, so Minnesota should be able to push the ball downfield a few times tonight. That bodes well for Jefferson’s DFS prospects, making him a priority play on Sunday Night Football.
Per ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, Jefferson has 34.9% of Sam Darnold’s targets this season, which is the second-largest share of any receiver through seven games over the last 10 seasons. It also needs to be noted that Darnold has more than 30 attempts only once this year, and that was 31 in his worst game of the season, where he completed only 14 passes for 179 yards and a pick against the New York Jets. With Darnold averaging just 27 pass attempts per game, it is hard to sustain many receivers from a fantasy perspective when so much of the volume is rightfully going to Jefferson.
Jordan Addison is third on the team with 23 targets, and Jalen Nailor is tied for fourth with 20 opportunities. Since the bye week, this duo has seven and nine targets, respectively, with only Trent Sherfield Sr. getting in on the fun. Of course, that was in primetime on Thursday Night Football, when he caught a 10-yard touchdown pass. He has only five targets on the season, so do not expect lightning to strike twice.
Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview
Quarterback | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
It alluded to it above, but Darnold really is getting by on efficiency. He has 14 touchdowns on the season, giving him a 7.4% touchdown rate, which trails only the 7.5% of Jordan Love. Though he does not get any designed runs, Darnold can scramble when needed, but most of his production will come through the air. Minnesota has to be thrilled with the results so far, even though the team has dropped both games since the Week 6 bye. The 31-29 loss to Detroit was a heartbreaker, and then the Vikings suffered the “Lions Hangover,” losing the following week in Los Angeles against the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
The Colts have not really faced any top-tier quarterbacks this season and certainly nobody with the talent of Jefferson. Indianapolis has faced C.J. Stroud twice, Malik Willis, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley. Williams, Fields and Lawrence each had 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. Darnold should be able to move the ball, but his DFS fortune is going to be hinging on touchdowns.
Running Back | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Aaron Jones has to be champing at the bit tonight, with the Colts allowing 151.9 rushing yards per game, which is the third most in the league. Five different running backs have rushed for 90 or more yards this season, and five different backs have posted 60-plus combined yards. Indianapolis has allowed only five touchdowns to running backs, otherwise there would be more noise around the fantasy campfire for targeting running backs facing the Colts.
Even though he played only 16 snaps in Week 5, Jones is on pace for 1,200 rushing and 500 receiving yards. He is second on the team with 25 targets, and no other running backs had receiving opportunities over the last two weeks. In fact, Ty Chandler did not have a single touch last Thursday, and he had only two carries for four yards in Week 7. Heck, even C.J. Ham has not been able to get the ball with both of his targets coming in the opener and his two carries back in Week 5, when he also scored a touchdown with Jones injured. It is hard to craft appealing lineups without Jones.
Tight End | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Johnny Mundt had 20 targets while keeping the seat warm for T.J. Hockenson, who should be returning to action tonight after shredding his knee in Week 15 last season. The best guess is that he will be on the field for at least half the snaps, with room for more depending on how he is feeling and the game situation. He is an intriguing tournament option since it will be interesting to see how many gamers are willing to ride with the two-time Pro Bowler in the absence of any news about his workload.
Mundt and Josh Oliver are likely to be on the field for around 30% to 40% of the offensive plays, though both are well down the pecking order in the red zone. Mundt is a dart throw on DraftKings at $1,200, but it would be a surprise for him to see more than two targets in this low-volume passing attack.
Kicker | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Rookie Will Reichard has made all 14 of his field goal attempts, including four from 50-plus yards and all 20 extra points. The sixth-round selection out of Alabama looks like he has a long professional career in front of him and playing in the dome will help.
Defense | Colts-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 9
Surprisingly, the Vikings did not have any sacks last week against Matthew Stafford, though the team did have an interception and a safety. This unit has three return touchdowns and at least three sacks in five of seven games. Minnesota leads the league with 12 interceptions and is second overall with 15 total takeaways. Flacco will do his best to avoid sacks and picks, but they seem inevitable in the matchup, particularly if the Vikings can put points on the board and pressure the Colts to keep up.
NFL DFS Picks for Colts-Vikings Sunday Night Football Week 9: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Colts-Vikings
- Justin Jefferson: Captain, My Captain.
- Aaron Jones: Barely behind Jefferson — barely.
- Josh Downs: Quietly thrilled for the quarterback change.
- Joe Flacco: Wacko for Flacco!
- Sam Darnold: Like a younger Flacco, though with a much rockier start to his career and without the Super Bowl ring and MVP trophy.
- Jonathan Taylor: Very little love in the passing game, regardless of the quarterback.
- Michael Pittman Jr.: Steady veteran presence.
- Will Reichard: Rookie kicker looks terrific.
- Matt Gay: Underrated veteran leg, impeccable accuracy inside 45 yards.
- Alec Pierce: Three targets for three catches, 134 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville with Flacco, though downfield plays may not have time to develop tonight. Just one catch for 9 yards on six targets in the other two games with Flacco.
Secondary Options
- T.J. Hockenson: Great tournament option with the uncertainty and low-volume offense leading to plenty of questions.
- Minnesota D/ST: Likely will need a splash play; this unit has been adept with them so far.
- Jordan Addison: Forgotten man.
- Ty Chandler: Invisible man.
- Adonai Mitchell: Not living up to the second-round hype. Perhaps a new quarterback will help.
Lottery Tickets
- Indianapolis D/ST: Meh.
- Trey Sermon: Projects for 2.6 offensive opportunities in the Stokastic model.
- Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory: One of them will break our heart tonight.
- Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver: In play for those building a couple dozen lineups.
- Jalen Nailor: Needs eight things to go right.
- C.J. Ham: Will at least be on the field.
- Tyler Goodson, Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield Sr.: May not see the field but should be active.
- Ashton Dulin, Anthony Gould, Robert Tonyan, Cam Akers, Andrew Luck and Randy Moss: Wishful thinking.
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