Monday Night Football has a 45.5 projected total with Tampa Bay nearly double-digit road dogs as the Buccaneers head to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs. The various salaries and potential game-flow outcomes add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Buccaneers-Chiefs Monday Night Football clash for Week 9, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Buccaneers-Chiefs Monday Night Football Week 9
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NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Chiefs Monday Night Football Week 9: Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.16
FanDuel: 16.02
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have a long row to hoe tonight. Losing a pair of All-Pro wideouts, including a future Hall of Famer, is tough to say the least. There is a chance that Mike Evans can return by early December from his hamstring strain, but Chris Godwin is done for the season after severely dislocating his left ankle.
But wait … there’s more … or in this case, potentially less. Veteran Sterling Shepard and rookie Jalen McMillan are both dealing with hamstring issues, which limited them to only light work during Saturday’s practice. McMillan also missed Weeks 4 and 5 with the same malady.
Kansas City is allowing 212.7 passing yards per game, which is in the middle of the pack, though the Chiefs are in the top third of the league for opposing quarterback rating, yards per attempt and touchdowns (9) allowed. Gardner Minshew II, Derek Carr and Joe Burrow each tallied two passing touchdowns against Kansas City, with Brock Purdy running for two. Lamar Jackson (273), Kirk Cousins (230) and Burrow (258) are the only quarterbacks to log more than 215 aerial yards.
Mayfield should still be able to manufacture passing yards by working the middle, flats and hitting his running back on screens and outlets. The key will be getting enough volume for this dink-and-dunk approach to work.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Positional Preview
Running Back | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
It would appear that Rachaad White is still the “RB1,” though rookie Bucky Irving is definitely closing the gap. In Week 6, when White was injured, Irving and fellow backup Sean Tucker had big games against the Saints in New Orleans. Tucker has played only 16 and seven snaps in the two games since that outburst, but that is not bad considering he was on the field for only nine offensive plays over the first five games.
Irving has played 10 fewer snaps than White in each of the last two games, but the former Oregon Duck has shown he can be effective as a runner, and he also had seven targets last week in the first game without Evans and Godwin. He is two inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than White, so we should not expect him to be a “bell cow” by any stretch, though he shapes up as a strong point-per-dollar option on the main DFS sites tonight.
White is a plodder as a runner, seemingly a heartbeat too slow when reading the holes and blocks. That is not much for mere mortals, but in the NFL world, it is the difference between a second contract and being a fungible asset. The third-year back is a capable pass-catcher, but the 3.7 yards per carry for his career make him a volume-based runner.
Kansas City is allowing only 82.3 rushing yards per game, which are the third fewest in the league. Jordan Mason (14 carries for 58 yards) is the only back to top 50 rushing yards, which includes Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara and J.K. Dobbins, among others. No running back has been able to cobble together more than 69 combined yards this season.
Still, with the lack of ambulatory wide receivers, there should be some PPR goodness for the Tampa Bay backfield tonight. Keep tabs on any word about Irving and his sore toe, which sounds like “turf toe” and is something that may take a while to heal. Expect him to play, but if for some reason he sits, Tucker will become the punt du jour.
Wide Receiver | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
It is going to be a wait and see situation for Shepard and McMillan, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic NFL Live Before Lock Show tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET as Dave “Loughy” Loughran and Matt Gajewski react to the inactives and parse through revised strategies.
Trey Palmer is at least healthy, and he has played 70% of the snaps each of the last two weeks. The second-year wideout spent his first three college seasons as a cog in the LSU machine before transferring to Nebraska and posting a 1,000-yard season. His speed (4.33 40-yard dash) is also elite, so that was enough for the Buccaneers to choose him in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He will likely be running downfield routes most of the night, but one big play could have him in the mix for the optimal lineup.
Rakim Jarrett is in his second season with Tampa Bay after going undrafted after three non-descript seasons at Maryland. He was mostly a possession receiver, collecting 62 catches in his sophomore season and another 40 in his third and final year with the Terrapins.
Last week UDFA Ryan Miller had five of his six career targets, and he is yet another discount dandy on DraftKings ($1,000). Miller played at Furman University for five seasons before landing with the Buccaneers. Depending on the data source, he is listed as both a wide receiver and a tight end. Tampa has him listed as a wide receiver, and at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, that is the most accurate expectation. For DFS purposes, he is going to be on the field in some form or fashion and should see a couple of targets.
The Stokastic NFL stat projections are assuming that McMillan and Shepard play, allocating 5.8 targets and 4.1 to this duo. Palmer is slotting in with 4.4, while Jarrett and Millar are at 1.3, though that could change after the inactives are announced.
It would not be a shock for one, or even both, of McMillan and Shepard to sit, which will make this a chaotic scenario with wildly variable outcomes.
Tight End | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Cade Otton has had ample volume over the last two weeks, with 20 targets. Kansas City has allowed three different tight ends to top 90 receiving yards this season, while two more had had 55-plus. It is likely that Otton will have a third consecutive game with double-digit targets, but he will have the focus of the defense as well.
Payne Durham had his lone target back in Week 3, though he is likely to be on the field for 20 or so plays tonight. Ko Kieft and Devin Culp may step between the lines once or twice, but Kieft does not have a target this season and Culp is a seventh-round rookie still waiting for his first opportunity. On a fun note, Otton, Culp and McMillan were all teammates at the University of Washington.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Chase McLaughlin has played for seven teams in his six seasons, being the full-time kicker for Cleveland in 2021, Indianapolis in 2022 and for Tampa Bay since the start of last year. In this stretch he has made 98.3% of his extra points and 85.3% of his field goals, and he has been outstanding from 50-plus yards, converting on 26 of 31 (84%).
Defense | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
The Pewter Pirates have 19 sacks over the last five games, with three interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Kansas City has allowed more sacks and turnovers than usual this season, keeping this unit in play for the large-field tournaments.
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NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Chiefs Monday Night Football Week 9: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.08
FanDuel: 14.91
Somehow Kansas City is undefeated, despite Patrick Mahomes looking merely average. Of course, injuries to Rashee Rice and Marquis “Hollywood” Brown have not helped, nor has the wear and tear on the whole roster, which has won back-to-back Super Bowls.
It is crazy how the league has changed; Mahomes averaged 296.2 passing yards per game in his first six seasons, but watching that drop to 261.4 last year and 235.9 this year is a stark contrast.
Over the last four games, Tampa has faced Kirk Cousins twice. In Week 5 he racked up 509 yards and four scores, completing 42 of 58 (72%) of his passes. These numbers were all personal bests and should have served as a wakeup call for the Tampa defense. However, last week Cousins was 23 of 29 (79%) for 276 yards and another four touchdowns. In Week 7 it was Lamar Jackson who had 281 yards and five touchdowns on a very economical 17 of 22 (77%).
If there ever was a get-right spot, this is it for Mahomes. Now if only some of his receivers can step up.
Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview
Running Back | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Six different running backs have rushed for at least 60 yards against the Buccaneers this season, with three additional backs posting 60-plus combined yards. After joining the Chiefs in Week 4, Kareem Hunt has consolidated the backfield workload, and he looks to be a strong fantasy option with Isiah Pacheco out for the season.
Over the last three games, Hunt has averaged 23.3 carries and nearly 80 rushing yards, adding four touchdowns. He also has seven targets in his four games, and while that may not seem like a lot, it is two more than Samaje Perine. Hunt is likely to be on the field for around two-thirds of the snaps, and Perine will work in on the obvious passing downs. Rookie Carson Steele is now the odd man out, likely to step between the lines on a dozen or so plays, with a projection of 3.2 opportunities. His path to success is likely getting extended work during mop-up duty if this is a lopsided game.
Wide Receiver | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
DeAndre Hopkins has had another week to become more acclimated in the offense, so he should see more than the three targets he had last week while playing on only one-third of the snaps. JuJu Smith-Schuster did not play in that game, and he has already been ruled out for tonight. That leaves Montrell Washington, who got his first offensive action with Kansas City, though he saw no targets.
Rookie Xavier Worthy has averaged 40 offensive plays each of the last two games, and he saw eight targets in each outing. He has a trio of touchdowns through the air and two more on the ground, giving him ample DFS upside, though accompanied by rookie mistakes.
Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman are likely to see reduced playing time as Hopkins continues to get more work. Anyone is live for a touchdown with Mahomes throwing passes, but it is tricky trying to predict the target distribution.
Tight End | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Kansas City has been playing a lot of two-tight end sets, though Travis Kelce is rarely lining up in line. The future Hall of Famer is on the field for 75% of the offensive plays, while Noah Gray has played 65% over the last three weeks. Though both are out with injuries, Jared Wiley and Jody Fortson have been on the field 12 to 15 plays as well as coach Andy Reid tries to compensate for the thin wide receiver room. This opens things up for Peyton Hendershot to be elevated from the practice squad.
Kelce has 36 targets over the last four games, which is a lot of work for the 35-year-old when the plan was to take it easier with him when possible. Gray is getting around three targets per game, while Fortson looked at one in each of the last three tilts.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Harrison Butker signed a lucrative four-year deal this offseason, worth $25 million. Late-season games at Arrowhead Stadium tend to bring weather into play, much like tonight for Monday Night Football. Butker is a good kicker inside 50 yards, but he does not get as many opportunities from long range as his compatriots, partly due to conditions and an offense that generally gets him closer to the goal posts. Butker has converted on 10 of his last 16 (63%) from beyond 50, including makes of 62 and 60 yards.
Defense | Buccaneers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9
Kansas City had five sacks last week against Las Vegas, though the team had just six quarterback takedowns in the preceding four games. Homefield advantage is huge at Arrowhead Stadium, so expect a handful of combined sacks and turnovers.
NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Chiefs Monday Night Football Week 9: Rankings
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Now let’s jump into the final rankings for this Buccaneers-Chiefs MNF slate.
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Kareem Hunt: Workload has been off the charts.
- Travis Kelce: No rest for the wicked; losing Wiley and Fortson to injuries is good for DFS gamers but not for the old man,
- Baker Mayfield: Should have a hand in most of the offensive production.
- Cade Otton: The defense will be all over him.
- Harrison Butker: Wind and rain are in the forecast, though it is hard to pinpoint overall impact and coverage.
- Rachaad White: Healthy and getting the first crack at the rushing attempts.
- Xavier Worthy: Slight edge over Hopkins.
- Chase McLaughlin: We need salary savers.
- Deandre Hopkins: Borderline core play.
Secondary Options
- Bucky Irving: If not for the sore toe, he would be tied with White.
- Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard: If healthy, they would be in the above section; decent chance both will be out with their respective hamstring issues.
- Trey Palmer: Moves up one slot for each additional wide receiver who is inactive tonight; becomes best point-per-dollar option in the player pool if both of his gimpy teammates are out.
- Kansas City D/ST: Mayfield should be under pressure all night.
- Justin Watson and Noah Gray: They have Mahomes’ trust; volume is a different story.
Lottery Tickets
- Ryan Miller: In play for cash games (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans) on DraftKings ($1,000).
- Tampa Bay D/ST: Shaky unit against Mahomes, who is having his worst season.
- Samaje Perine and Sean Tucker: If Irving is out, Tucker moves up to his line.
- Rakim Jarrett: In case of fire, break glass.
- Mecole Hardman: Main kick returner; should get a target or two.
- Carson Steele: Needs fourth quarter mop-up duty.
- Peyton Hendershot: Extreme punt if active.
- Ko Kieft, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Payne Durham, Montrell Washington, Devin Culp and Kameron Johnson: Thanks, but no thanks.
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