Sunday Night Football has a tremendous matchup on tap to wrap up the season with a 56.5 projected total as the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) are in Detroit to take on the Lions (14-2), with the winner earning a first round playoff bye. The high total and tight 3.0-point spread for this Week 18 matchup call for precise NFL DFS decision making. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, giving you everything you need to craft winning lineups for the SNF slate.
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NFL DFS Picks: Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football Week 18
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NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football Week 18: Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 24.88
FanDuel: 21.27
Justin Jefferson somehow seemed to disappoint his fantasy backers, though he ranks second in the league with 92.4 yards per game, fifth with 145 targets and seventh with 100 receptions. He also leads the league with 27 plays of 20-plus yards, which are six more than Darnell Mooney and eight ahead of Ja’Marr Chase.
Across the last four games, Detroit allowed three different wideouts to tally 114 or more receiving yards, with another four topping 60 yards. A dozen wide receivers have topped 85 receiving yards this season, which is no bueno.
In his last eight games against the Lions, Jefferson had 21-plus full-PPR fantasy points seven times. This works out to a reasonable four touchdowns but an otherworldly 1,090 yards on 87 targets and 66 receptions.
Jordan Addison has also leveled up, with eight or more targets in six of his last seven games. He should benefit against a thinned-out Detroit secondary if the Lions decide to roll coverage towards Jefferson. Jalen Nailor pops up every now and then, as he has five games of at least four targets, including last week when he recorded a season-high five receptions for 81 yards, along with his sixth score of the year.
The Vikings do not go much beyond this trio, with Brandon Powell seeing two targets over the last six games and Trent Sherfield Sr. getting one opportunity. For perspective, Nailor’s 39 targets are double that of this duo, and Powell (10) is barely ahead of Sherfield (9).
Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview
Quarterback | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Sam Darnold has been a marvel this season, and the nomadic NFL signal-caller has likely earned the franchise tag from Minnesota or a longer deal from another team. This is the seventh season for the third overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, and Darnold continues to get better each week. Over the last 10 games, he tossed multiple touchdowns eight times and had three games of at least 330 passing yards, including a career-high 377 last week against the Green Bay Packers. Darnold should find plenty of opportunities against the banged-up Detroit defense, and he is just enough of a rushing threat to be worth consideration for the multiplier slot on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Running Back | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Oft-injured Aaron Jones is dealing with a quad issue, though he was a full participant in the final official practice for this week. This is a massively important game, with the loser ending up as the No. 5 seed and going on the road for the playoffs. The winner gets a bye, which would help Jones heal up from any additional health points lost tonight.
Josh Jacobs got the Lions for a trio of tuddies in Week 14, while James Cook ran two in the following week. Over the last two tilts, Chicago and a shorthanded San Francisco squad were not able to muster anything serious on the ground, but the teams were playing from behind. In Week 7, Jones ran for 93 yards and a score on just 14 carries, converting all three of his targets for another 23 yards. Expect him to be on the field for around 60% of the snaps while seeing the majority of the running back opportunities.
Cam Akers is back with the Vikings after starting the year in Houston. He will be on the field for most of the action when Jones is getting a break, and he has stand-alone value at his current salary on both DraftKings ($3,400) and FanDuel ($7,500). Ty Chandler is an afterthought who projects for just over one offensive touch tonight.
Tight End | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Despite missing the first seven games of the season, T.J. Hockenson has two more targets (54) than Johnny Mundt (27) and Josh Oliver (25) combined. He had 38 looks over the last six games, with his counterparts combining for only eight opportunities. Of course, this is a “Remember Me?!” game for Hockenson, whom the Vikings acquired in 2022. Keep in mind that last year when these teams met in Week 16, the two-time Pro Bowler shredded his ACL and MCL. He is looking for his first touchdown of the season, and it would be sweet poetry if it occurred tonight.
Kicker | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Rookie Will Reichard was a sixth-round selection out of Alabama. He had a stint on the injured reserve with a quad injury but was otherwise solid. He converted all 38 point after touchdown attempts, had an 84% touchback rate on kickoffs and converted on 7 of 9 (78%) of his attempts from beyond 50 yards. Overall he had an 81% success rate on field goals while looking like a kicker who will be in the league for the next decade.
Defense | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Minnesota is third in the league with 47 sacks this season, tied with the Houston Texans. The defense has one of the highest blitz rates in the league and is deserving of the Purple People Eater moniker of yore. The Vikings lead the league with 22 interceptions and 31 total takeaways. Detroit has ceded only 13 turnovers this year, which are the fourth lowest. The Lions have given up just shy of two sacks per tilt, which are a little above league average but not close to the best teams in the league.
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NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football Week 18: Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 24.88
FanDuel: 21.27
David Montgomery is out, which turns the best 1-2 running back combo into a consolidated backfield. Jahmyr Gibbs in turn is the best play for Week 18, including the “all-day” and “full-week” slates that have included this matchup.
Gibbs had a rushing touchdown in each of the last two games without Monty, topping 100 rushing yards and adding four catches for another 40-plus yards. When these teams met in Week 7, Gibbs posted 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries, bringing in all four targets for another 44 yards. Montgomery was healthy in this game, seeing four targets and nine totes for nominal yardage.
Since that game, Minnesota allowed five rushing touchdowns in the ensuing 10 matchups, with six running backs clearing 60 rushing yards. Craig Reynolds will back up Gibbs, and he has been a safe RB3 during his time in Detroit. He is more of a lunch pail guy who is able to do what is asked without being overly flashy. Even in a game of this magnitude, expect to see him on the field for around 15 offensive snaps and get half a dozen carries plus a couple of targets. On Monday Night Football in San Francisco, he had seven carries for 31 yards and two targets for a pair of catches and another 35 yards. For his career, he is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has brought in 25 of his 27 targets.
Second-year back Jermar Jefferson and rookie Sione Vaki are unlikely to be on the field for much if any offensive action. Combined this duo projects for 1.5 carries and less than half a target.
Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Jared Goff has been stellar this season, posting a career-high 113.6 passer rating and a personal-best 67.0 QBR. He is second in the league with 274.9 aerial yards per game, while his 36 touchdowns are the fourth most. He has been sacked 36 times, which is also the fourth-highest total in the league, though his 10 interceptions based on this passing volume are acceptable.
Goff is averaging 3.5 yards per game, so his arm is going to have to be enough for his DFS backers. Six different quarterbacks have had multi-touchdown games against the Vikings, with nine passing for at least 260 yards. Goff was efficient back in Week 7, completing 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
This season, Detroit has the most prolific offense in the league with 33.3 points per game. Goff led the Lions to at least 30 points in each of the last four meetings with Minnesota, including 31 in Week 7, which was a season high against the Vikings.
Wide Receiver | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Amon-Ra St. Brown is ninth in the league with 74.1 receiving yards per game, and his 109 receptions trail only league leader Ja’Marr Chase (127), who also sits atop the touchdown list (17). St. Brown is tied for second with Terry McLaurin at 12 touchdowns heading into the final game. St. Brown posted at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his last trio of tilts against the Vikes; the raw numbers are 32 targets for 27 catches, 362 yards and three scores.
Jameson Williams is seventh in the league with 17 plays of at least 20 yards, and he is 33 away from 1,000 for the season. He accomplished this in just 14 games, and he has become the perfect wingman for St. Brown. Somehow, Tim Patrick did not see a target against the 49ers; however, in the six preceding games, he did have 27 targets, including seven red zone opportunities.
Kalif Raymond is in his 21-day practice window after injuring his hamstring in Week 12. While he is an important depth piece, the team may not push him too much tonight, as it will need him for the postseason. He may move back to his punt return role with a few offensive plays.
Allen Robinson II had one target on Monday, giving him two in the last five games. Tom Kennedy (not to be confused with the Stokastic CEO) will be the WR5, and his only target occurred back in the second game of the season. He returned kickoffs the last couple of weeks, so he could remain active over Robinson if Raymond suits up.
Tight End | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
Since Week 11, Sam LaPorta has been on the field for just over 93% of the offensive plays after missing Week 11 with an injury. In this same stretch, Brock Wright has played just over 46% of the snaps. Wright could get a target, but he had only two in the last five games and has 16 on the season. LaPorta has 76 targets, which are 82% of the opportunities that have gone to this position. Shane Zylstra may get a couple offensive snaps, but his only target was all the way back in Week 11, when LaPorta was out.
Kicker | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
For those who missed the breakdown of Jake Bates last week, here is the recap:
“Bates has had a fun journey to the NFL. He played two seasons of college soccer for Central Arkansas prior to transferring to Texas State to play football. He spent two seasons there as a kickoff specialist prior to moving to Arkansas, where again he was relegated to kickoff duty only, though he was named to the All-SEC team. He had a quick two-week turn with the Texans, but they cut him cut halfway through training camp. Next up was the UFL, where Bates finally received his chance to officially kick field goals, setting a league record with a 64-yarder while also converting two others from 60-plus.”
This season he has converted on 25 of 28 (89%) of his field goal opportunities, including 6 of 8 (75%) from beyond 50 yards. Playing for the highest-scoring offense in the league has also allowed him to attempt 63 PATs, missing three, including two on Monday Night Football in San Francisco.
Defense | Vikings-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18
The Lions, of course, lost Aidan Hutchison, the sack maven, in mid-October. Linemen Alim McNeill and Mekhi Wingo, linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes and Carlton Davis III, and defensive back Ennis Rakestraw Jr. also populate the injured reserve. Nickelback Emmanuel Moseley is out as well, and middle linebacker Alex Anzalone is questionable. Yikes!
Detroit had five sacks, three fumble recoveries and two interceptions over the last four games while allowing 31, 48, 17 and 34 points. There is not much of a story to tell here. Minnesota is surrendering almost a trio of sacks per game and has a middle-of-the-pack 21 combined turnovers.
NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football Week 18: Rankings
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Now let’s dive into the final rankings for the Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football slate!
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Vikings-Lions
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Captain, My Captain.
- Justin Jefferson: Just a tick behind Gibbs, but there is no need to quibble if you prefer JJ, who is, of course, dy-no-mite.
- Sam Darnold: No respect from the sportsbooks for his rushing potential. The OddsShopper live screen shows that his total rushing yards of over 12.5 is the prevailing mark, with some sites still offering -110 to -115, while over 24.5 yards is an intriguing +300.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Runs routes at every level like an expert.
- Jordan Addison: Thrives over the middle of the field in the splash zone.
- Jared Goff: No slight to him at all; this is a tremendously top-heavy player pool tonight.
- Jameson Williams: Can break off a big play at any time.
- T.J. Hockenson: It is time to feed the Hock!
- Sam LaPorta: Rounding into form with the stakes at the highest level.
- Aaron Jones: Another year older, but the high-value backfield touches are his alone.
Secondary Options
- Jake Bates: Booming leg and at home.
- Will Reichard: Yet another terrific young kicker.
- Tim Patrick: Will not be shut out two games in a row, even with the return of Raymond.
- Craig Reynolds: Trusted just enough to be interesting on DraftKings ($3,000) for those crafting 10-plus lineups. He enters the fray around lineup No. 20 on FanDuel ($7,500).
- Jalen Nailor: Close your eyes and envision him getting his seventh touchdown of the season. Now go add him to a couple of rosters.
Lottery Tickets
- Cam Akers: Just how sore is Jones’ quad?
- Minnesota D/ST: Have not found an answer yet for Goff.
- Detroit D/ST: This unit needs the offense to put pressure on Darnold and the passing game, increasing the potential for a pick-6 or scoop-and-score.
- Kalif Raymond: $200 minimum salary on DraftKings; should be active after injuring his hamstring in Week 12. More than a target could be wishful thinking; pay attention to reports leading up to kickoff.
- Josh Oliver: Last player worthy of his own line.
- Johnny Mundt, Brock Wright and C.J. Ham: Will be on the field; touches are another story.
- Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield and Ty Chandler: Likely to get a few offensive plays; 1.3 combined touches for this trio do not go far.
- Jermar Jefferson and Sione Vaki: Things would need to be out of hand for either to see the field for more than a play or two.
- Allen Robinson II, Shane Zylstra, Herschel Walker and Barry Sanders: Not tonight, fellas.
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