NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-Commanders: Week 17 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 47.0 projected total with both teams needing this victory to further their playoff aspirations. Atlanta (8-7) is in as the NFC South Champions if they win the next two games, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right there if the Falcons slip. Washington (10-5) topped Philadelphia (12-3) last game and has a chance to run down the Eagles for the NFC East with Jalen Hurts out this week, though the Commanders will still need help down to the wire. For tonight’s Showdown NFL DFS slate, we’re breaking down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for Falcons-Commanders Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NFL DFS Picks: Falcons-Commanders Sunday Night Football Week 17

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NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-Commanders Sunday Night Football Week 17: Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson

DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel:
$16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings:
19.95
FanDuel: 18.41

It will be interesting to see how the Washington defense handles Bijan Robinson. Over the last five games, Saquon Barkley (150, 146) put up nearly 300 rushing yards in his two appearances, and Rico Dowdle added 86 on the ground. On either side of the Week 14 bye, Tony Pollard (35), Tyjae Spears (3), Alvin Kamara (12) and Kendre Miller (46) did not even collectively clear 100 yards on the ground.

Robinson averaged 23 carries and 103.3 yards across the last four games and scored four touchdowns. The main knock against the do-everything back is that he saw just two targets in each of the last three games. While that isn’t nothing, it is less than half of the five looks per game he averaged in the preceding seven tilts. Robinson is sixth in the league with 79.7 rushing yards per game and 11th with 10 rushing scores, but he has only four totes of more than 20 yards. He also has three receptions for 20-plus yards, with one additional score.

Tyler Allgeier is averaging 10 carries and 36 yards per appearance over the last four games. The passing game has not bolstered this workload, as the trusted back had only two targets in this timeframe, catching both for a total of 15 yards. Interestingly enough, he also has four runs of 20 or more yards, matching Robinson. The rest of the running backs have been on the field for 29 snaps this season, with Avery Williams getting two last week, which were the only non-Robinson/Allgeier offensive snaps in the last month.


Atlanta Falcons Positional Preview

Quarterback | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Michael Penix Jr. was decent last week in his first start, though the Giants did not test the eighth overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. He completed 18 of 27 (67%) of his passes for 202 yards, an interception and no touchdowns. The main bonus for Atlanta fans is that the former University of Washington stalwart is not the broken-down Kirk Cousins.

The Falcons control their playoff destiny and can claim the NFC South title if they win the next two games. Washington also has a chance to best Philadelphia and get the NFC East crown, but the Commanders need the Eagles to lose.

Across the last seven games, four opposing signal-callers tossed multiple touchdowns. Cooper Rush (247) had the highest yardage total, with four field generals failing to reach 200 aerial yards. The Commanders brought over Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans via a trade this season, though he was only healthy enough to play in the last two games. He left the Eagles game with an injury, and he has been ruled out for Sunday Night Football.

Wide Receiver | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Drake London (knee) was a full practice participant to wrap up the week, and he does not have any injury designation. He saw eight targets from Penix last Sunday, and a similar allocation tonight should have him maintain his top-10 status in that category. The third-year wideout is only 22 yards away from reaching 1,000 for the year, and he already has seven touchdowns, doubling his previous two seasons. He should benefit significantly with Penix under center since this will open up play-action opportunities and give the offense a chance to target the second level.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have London projected for 8.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, 65.9 yards and a 40% probability of finding the end zone. Darnell Mooney has been earmarked for 6.2 targets, 3.7 catches and 51.5 yards with a one-in-three likelihood of scoring at touchdown. Ray-Ray McCloud III benefited from Cousins’ limitations, so his potential workload has been adjusted accordingly, with 3.9 targets, 2.7 receptions, 32.2 yards and slim touchdown odds.

Undrafted rookie Chris Blair saw his first target of the season last week, but he is the only other wideout to have an opportunity since Week 11. Atlanta has a very concentrated receiving corps.

Tight End | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

The fantasy football world talked themselves into drafting Kyle Pitts once again, hoping a change in quarterbacks would improve his fortunes. Sadly, that has not been the case, with Pitts just barely inside the top 20 fantasy point producers at his position in the full-PPR scoring format. Over the last seven games, he had just 24 targets, 12 receptions, 124 yards and no touchdowns. Backup Charlie Woerner started the last three games, while Pitts fell out of his starting role last week when Atlanta opened with a three-wideout set.

Atlanta brought Woerner and Ross Dwelley over from San Francisco this offseason to shore up the blocking duties for this position. Dwelley has just one target this season, though five of Woerner’s 11 looks this year came over the last two games, including a pair of targets from Penix, matching Pitts’ volume.

Kicker | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Riley Patterson will be kicking in place of Younghoe Koo. Patterson has had a nomadic NFL existence, spending time with Minnesota, New England, Washington and the New York Jets, plus two different stretches for Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Jacksonville. This includes various offseason and practice squad stints, but he has certainly been everywhere (shout out to Johnny Cash for a great rendition of “I’ve Been Everywhere”).

Tonight will be the 43rd NFL game for Patterson in the last four seasons. He has a scant seven attempts from 50-plus yards, making just four (57%) and showing weak touchback rates (prior to the new rules this season). This will be his second game this year for Atlanta after playing once each for the Jets and Browns, attempting four total PATs and no field goals in these games.

Defense | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Atlanta had 16 sacks over the last four games, though seven were against the hapless Raiders and Giants; in the first 11 games of the season, the team collected only 10 quarterback takedowns. Washington had allowed multiple sacks in 11 of 14 games, including a ridiculous eight against New Orleans two weeks ago. The Commanders have only 14 turnovers, which is the fifth-lowest total in the league, while the Falcons have a middle-of-the-pack 17 takeaways.


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NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-Commanders Sunday Night Football Week 17: Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels

DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel:
$15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings:
23.28
FanDuel: 23.08

Jayden Daniels is all but assured of winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and it is not even close. Last week he had an astounding five touchdowns, leading Washington to a last-second victory against the Eagles. In the game Daniels also rushed for 81 yards, which was “only” his third-best effort this season.

Oddsmakers assigned the Commanders a 6.5-win total projection preseason, and the former LSU Tiger has roared by that mark with a 10-5 record.

Eight different quarterbacks threw for multiple touchdowns against Atlanta this season, including Bo Nix getting four in Week 11 and Sam Darnold five in Week 14. The Falcons are last in the league with 26 sacks, though 16 came in the last four games. That is one area of weakness for most rookies and Daniels is no different, being sacked 21 times over the last six games. For fantasy purposes, the tradeoff for his rushing upside is well worth it and this should not be a major concern.


Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Austin Ekeler (concussion) is on the injured reserve, which has cleared a path for second-year back Brian Robinson Jr. to consolidate the touches for this position. Over the last two weeks, he was on the field for around 70% of the offensive action, with Jeremy McNichols picking up the rest of the opportunities. Each player had six targets across the last two games, though Robinson had most of the rushing opportunities (31 carries for 89 yards), over McNichols (6/39).

Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the clear RB3, though he had four carries on his 10 snaps in this stretch, and the sixth-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Kentucky has flashed a little upside. His only real path to relevance is via in-game injury to one of the other backs or if there is mop-up duty, which seems unlikely with these two offenses likely trading blows tonight.

Wide Receiver | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Terry McLaurin has his five consecutive 1,000-yard season in the bag, and he has a career-high 12 touchdowns. He continues to be the most trusted target for his rookie quarterback, and that should not change tonight. Even with the defenses rolling coverage his way, McLaurin has been able to make them pay with a dozen receptions of 20-plus yards. Any mistakes or cracks in the coverage and the speedster will be standing in the end zone in the blink of an eye.

Noah Brown (kidney) is on the injured reserve, and Dyami Brown (hamstring) is out as well after moving into the WR2 role last week. That means things are shaping up for Olamide Zaccheaus to have a strong showing against his former team. He was a fourth quarter hero on Sunday, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the first five minutes of the period. Jamison Crowder came out of nowhere for a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner with six seconds left on the clock.

Zaccheaus has been a steady contributor all season, but he was battling the Browns for opportunities. Rookie Luke McCaffrey has been a disappointment, and even with the options thinning out for Washington, he has been on the field for only 12 and nine snaps the last two games. Expect Crowder to be on the field over the rookie for any high-leverage plays where a third receiver is called upon.

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Tight End | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Zach Ertz has battled through injuries this season, but he has answered the call every week. He has 79 of the 95 (83%) targets to this position, with John Bates and rookie Ben Sinnott each contributing two over the last month. Bates is likely to be on the field for around 40% of the offensive action as a blocker, with Sinnott being a wild card and only viable on DraftKings, where he is $600, though be prepared to take a zero.

Kicker | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Shout out to Zane Gonzalez, who was out of the league for two years before landing on the Washington practice squad in early November. He got the call up to the active roster to replace Austin Seibert, who was injured in early November and then again in early December. The main reason that Gonzalez fell out of favor after stints in Cleveland, Arizona and Carolina is that he just is not good from beyond 45 yards. That is a problem in today’s NFL, especially with so many booming legs coming into the league over the last five years. For his career, Gonzalez is 11 of 19 (58%) from 50-plus yards, which would have been great in the ’80s and ’90s, but not today.

Defense | Falcons-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 17

Penix made it through the game against the Giants without being sacked. He is obviously more mobile than Cousins, but rookies under the bright lights and against a veteran defense, well, they tend to make mistakes, and he should be good for a handful of combined sacks and turnovers tonight in Washington. The Commanders have 39 sacks on the season, which is just above average, though their 16 takeaways are in the bottom third of the league.

NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-Commanders Sunday Night Football Week 17: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Falcons-Commanders

  1. Jayden Daniels: Captain, My Captain!
  2. Bijan Robinson: Touchdown equity is there, but slight concerns exist for his receiving opportunities.
  3. Terry McLaurin: Hopefully, he will be off to the races.
  4. Brian Robinson Jr.: Lucks into more work with Ekeler sidelined.
  5. Drake London: Knee does not appear to be a concern.
  6. Michael Penix Jr.: This will be his first true test.
  7. Zach Ertz: A name you can trust; double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four and five of the last eight, half-PPR included.
  8. Zane Gonzalez: Salary relief; keep in mind it is going to be in the upper-50s with a 10 to 15 mph breeze and a decent chance of rain.
  9. Olamide Zaccheaus: Increased cap hit after last Sunday’s heroics. Also returns punts.
  10. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III: McCloud is $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings, making this a tie. He has only a $1,000 discount on FanDuel, which pushes him to the bottom of the next section. McCloud shares kickoff return duties with Williams.

Secondary Options

  1. Washington D/ST: Homefield advantage, facing a rookie in a high-stakes game.
  2. Riley Patterson: Create-a-kicker.
  3. Jamison Crowder: Savvy veteran, backup punt returner.
  4. Kyle Pitts: Colossal disappointment; starts to get tempting on DraftKings ($4,800) and FanDuel ($8,000) with the reduced salary.
  5. Tyler Allgeier: Has a steady role, but upside will only be unlocked if something befalls Robinson in-game.

Lottery Tickets

  1. Atlanta D/ST: How real is the recent surge in sacks?
  2. Jeremy McNichols: Cheap enough to be a standalone value on both sites. Recently lost kick return role to McCaffrey.
  3. Luke McCaffrey: DraftKings only at $1,600, very little projected volume or red zone equity and could lose out to the next guy. Overtook, but could lose kickoff return role back to McNichols.
  4. K.J. Osbourne: Has been with the team two weeks after being released by New England. Expected to suit up, and he could replace McCaffrey.
  5. Chris Rodriguez: Last player worthy of his own line, and it is a stretch.
  6. John Bates, Ben Sinnott and Charlie Woerner: Projected for 2.1 combined targets.
  7. Ross Dwelley, Avery Williams, Chris Blair, Casey Washington and KhaDarel Hodge: Williams returns punts and kickoffs, the rest kick rocks.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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