Week 16 Thursday Night Football features an AFC West battle as the 9-5 Denver Broncos are in Los Angeles to take on the 8-6 Chargers in a divisional rivalry with the playoffs on the line, and we’re going to find some winning NFL DFS lineups. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal rosters for Thursday Night Football.
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NFL DFS Picks: Broncos-Chargers Thursday Night Football Week 16
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NFL DFS Picks for Broncos-Chargers Thursday Night Football Week 16: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $14,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.37
FanDuel: 12.21
In Week 7, Courtland Sutton did not have a single target in a 33-10 Denver victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Since that empty Thursday Night Football box score, the former SMU Mustang has averaged just over nine targets per game, with at least 100 yards or a touchdown in six of the seven tilts. In the lone outlier, he had seven receptions for 78 yards.
Sutton has been on the field for at least 85% of the offensive action across the last nine games, plus his 113 targets, 66 receptions, 878 yards and six scores are more than double the next closest Bronco in each category. In Week 6, which is a lifetime ago in the NFL, Sutton saw half a dozen targets for four receptions, 53 yards and a score.
Rookie Devaughn Vele, who was a seventh-round selection out of Utah, has carved out a role where he is on the field for around two-thirds of the snaps. Most games he gets three to four looks, with a high of nine in Week 12 and a low of one last Sunday.
Fellow rookie Troy Franklin is seeing action on around 40% of the plays, though he had 14 targets over the last trio of tilts, courtesy of his college quarterback. Marvin Mims Jr. has only been on the field for more than 25% of the snaps once in the last five games, but he at least has 13 looks in the last three. Former New Orleans Saint Lil’ Jordan Humphrey is always lurking, but he had one target in the last two games, despite playing nearly 50% more of the time over Mims.
In summary, Sutton is going to be a very popular option, with Vele, Mims and Franklin all live for between two and five looks. Humphrey is the odd man out, which, of course, means he is going to somehow be relevant. That is how showdown slates seem to work.
Denver Broncos Positional Preview
Quarterback | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Seven of the last 10 games saw rookie Bo Nix with multiple passing scores, and he had a pair of rushing touchdowns in this period as well. He also had seven interceptions, which is not bad at all, except three were on Sunday against Indianapolis and two the week prior against Cleveland.
To be fair, a 2.4% interception rate is not bad for a rookie, plus Nix has definitely had an upward trend in his performances. Things have been uneven, but at the end of the day he has his team on the brink of the postseason. Four of the last six quarterbacks to face the Chargers notched multi-touchdown games, including the recently benched Will Levis. Three also cleared 245 aerial yards, so there is hope for Nix’s fantasy prospects. Four of the last seven opposing signal-callers also rushed for at least 25 yards, which is promising since Nix has averaged just shy of that figure this season.
If Denver is able to secure a victory tonight in Los Angeles, the Broncos will be in the playoffs for the first time since the 2015-16 season, which ended with Peyton Manning, a strong rushing game and a terrific defensive squad besting Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. Yes, it really has been nearly a decade since this storied franchise was in the playoffs.
Running Back | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Jaleel McLaughlin is out with a quad injury, which leaves rookie Audric Estime and Javonte Williams, who has not really had the opportunities align with his playing time. McLaughlin has played half the snaps of Williams over the last several weeks but still has a much higher percentage of usage than Williams, with the overall volume gap continuing to close.
Estime is mostly a runner, having just four targets on the season. Williams had 16 targets over the last five games and McLaughlin got six, so it is hard to see much more volume going to Williams. This also is an aspect of the Denver offense, with coach Sean Payton happy to keep the clock moving and let his defense do a lot of the heavy lifting.
Williams is tied with Nix at four rushing scores apiece, though McLaughlin has the only two receiving touchdowns the running backs have tallied.
The yardage possibilities are wide open for the Denver ground game, with Los Angeles allowing four different running backs to clear 86 rushing yards over the last five games and three other backs reaching 55 rushing yards. The Chargers have allowed only six rushing touchdowns, which is the best mark in the league, but the team is ceding 4.7 yards per carry.
Tight End | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Over the last 10 games, no tight ends cleared 51 receiving yards against L.A., and the team has allowed one touchdown to the position all year. In the last six games, the Denver tight ends combined for 19 targets, with eight apiece going to Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman, while Nate Adkins had three looks.
Trautman is on the field for between 50% and 60% of the offensive snaps, and Krull and Adkins each fall into the 30% to 40% range, including the Broncos going with two-tight end sets around 20% of the time. Atkins had two touchdowns in the last three games on just three targets, while Trautman has hauled in two for the year. Each scored on Sunday against Indianapolis, so there is a puncher’s chance of one getting lucky again on Thursday Night Football.
Kicker | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Wil Lutz has converted on 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards this year and 7 of 11 while with the Broncos. The former New Orleans Saints standout will at least not have to worry about weather tonight, and he is having his best season outside of his 2019 Pro Bowl campaign. He has converted on 90% of his field goal attempts and has not missed an extra point.
Defense | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
The Orange Crush defense has multiple sacks in all but one game this year, with a league-leading 49 on the season. Los Angeles is allowing nearly three sacks per game, including 15 in the last four matchups. Turnovers are a different story, as the Chargers have suffered only eight all year and the Broncos are sixth overall at 1.6 per game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Broncos-Chargers Thursday Night Football Week 16: Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.68
FanDuel: 17.07
Ladd McConkey missed Week 14 with shoulder and knee injuries. Sunday he was a game-time decision, and tonight he is not listed on the injury report. The rookie started 11 of 13 games, and he is 127 yards shy of 1,000, having converted his 88 targets into 63 catches, 42 first downs and five touchdowns.
The former Georgia Bulldog has 25 more targets than any of his teammates, and he had at least six opportunities in all but one game. Patrick Surtain II leads the secondary, though he is more likely to wrangle Quentin Johnston. In the last meeting, Surtain and McConkey collided on the first play going after a pass, leading the legacy defensive back to miss the remainder of the game.
After a rough rookie season, Johnston has managed to pass Joshua Palmer for the WR2 role, so perhaps there is some hope for the 21st overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston has similar stats through 12 games compared to his full rookie campaign, with eight touchdowns being the lone and dramatic difference, as the former TCU stalwart scored twice in his first year. Clearly, variance has been on his side since he has half of the team’s 16 receiving touchdowns on the season.
In the game that McConkey missed, Palmer had nine looks, while Johnston saw seven and Derius Davis got four of his paltry 12 targets on the season in that matchup. The versatile return man had only two offensive snaps last week.
Tight end Will Dissly is out for a second consecutive game, so that likely means more three-wideout sets for the Chargers. That gives a slim opening to D.J. Chark Jr. who was on the field for nine offensive plays Sunday and 15 during the preceding game.
Laviska Shenault Jr. was on the field for seven plays, just two weeks after being cut by the Seattle Seahawks and added by LA to replace Jalen Reagor, who is on injured reserve.
Los Angeles Chargers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Justin Herbert has been picked off only twice this season, giving him an impressive 16-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. The last two years he was outstanding with a 1.5% interception rate, but his 0.5% mark this year is simply ridiculous. The volume is ticking up, and Herbert threw 30 or more passes four times in the last five games.
The loss of J.K. Dobbins, lack of explosiveness from Gus Edwards and inexperience of rookie Kimani Vidal put a lot of pressure on Herbert against a tough defense that will be waiting on him. In the last four games, Herbert did not top 220 passing yards, threw only two touchdowns and rushed for a third.
Jameis Winston picked apart Denver for 497 yards and four scores, albeit with three interceptions, in the winter wonderland game. Aside from that outlier, the team clamped down on Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew II and Anthony Richardson. Mahomes and Minshew each threw a touchdown, while Richardson ran for one. Mahomes was the only opposing field general to top 230 yards.
Expect a mostly conservative game plan from coach Jim Harbaugh, with Herbert likely to have a hand in most of the production.
Running Back | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Tonight the Stokastic projections have earmarked the “Gus Bus” for 14.6 carries, 61.2 yards and nearly a 35% probability of scoring a touchdown. Vidal is next up with 7.8 totes for 32.4 yards, plus an anemic 1.5 targets for one catch and 7 more yards. This should not be a surprise since the rookie has only four targets since Dobbins went down, albeit with three on Sunday. Edwards has only three targets in his 10 games on the season, so we are looking at an empty fantasy backfield, even when it is occupied.
Tight End | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Stone Smartt was a former college quarterback who converted to wide receiver as a senior at Old Dominion after the 2020 season was canceled due to the pandemic. Smartt was an undrafted free agent, joining the Chargers in 2022 and being asked to bulk up to play tight end. He is mostly a pass-catcher, so he hardly saw the field until Hayden Hurst and then Will Dissly were knocked out with injuries.
Hurst was a full participant in practice, so he is expected to return tonight after missing time with a hip injury. That could leave Eric Tomlinson down on the practice squad, with Tucker Fisk being the main blocking tight end. It is hard to know what coach Harbaugh has in mind for Hurst since he was mostly out of the picture prior to his injury. He could easily slot in over Smartt for his blocking, especially if the Denver defense is able to pressure Herbert early. Keep tabs on the inactive list, but expect this position to be muddy for fantasy purposes, just like everything else outside of Herbert and McConkey.
Kicker | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
After getting 10 field goal attempts in a four-game stretch, Cameron Dicker has had only one chance in each of the last two weeks. Since joining the Chargers partway through the 2022 season, Dicker has converted on 79 of 84 (94%) field goal attempts, including 15 of 19 (79%) from 50-plus yards. All three of his missed PATs have come this year, but that is the only blemish on the back of his football card.
Defense | Broncos-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16
Sacks looked like they were going to be an issue for Nix, but the rookie has been taken down only three times in the last four games. Los Angeles has just six sacks in the last four games, with 19 takeaways being around league average.
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 16: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Chargers
- Courtland Sutton: Slight edge over a crowded and less-than-stellar “top” of the player pool.
- Bo Nix: May not pile up the yardage but a solid threat in the red zone on the ground or through the air.
- Justin Herbert: Can run when necessary but is otherwise getting by on efficiency this season.
- Ladd McConkey: Viable as the Captain on DraftKings or MVP on FanDuel; it will be interesting to see how Surtain is deployed.
- Javonte Williams: Now that McLaughlin is out of the picture, he has to get the touches … right?!
- Quentin Johnston: Speaking of touchdowns, at some point the lucky horseshoe is going to lose the magic.
- Cameron Dicker: Homefield advantage, and he is an unsung hero.
- Wil Lutz: Getting the veteran back indoors is key.
- Joshua Palmer: Worked his way back into relevance but not yet in the circle of trust.
- Devaughn Vele: Compared to his counterparts, he is at least on the field, which is the first hurdle.
Secondary Options
- Stone Smartt: If Hurst is active, Smartt falls to the bottom of this section.
- Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal: Meh! Actually, that exclamation mark may be too exciting for this pedestrian pair.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Homefield advantage, though Nix has been showing poise.
- Denver D/ST: Great unit going against a savvy and conservative coach + quarterback combo.
- Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin: Sheesh, the DFS options are certainly flat tonight after the handful of obviously desirable options. Mims returns punts and kickoffs.
Lottery Tickets
- Audric Estime: Half a dozen carries is a reasonable baseline, with another couple in attainable upside. These are unlikely to be high-value touches, and more than a target or two would be a shock unless he outplays Williams early or there is an injury to the lead back.
- Lucas Krull, Nate Adkins, Adam Trautman and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey: Somehow this motley crew has six (30%) of Nix’s 20 touchdowns. They will all play, and one is likely to break our hearts. Good luck figuring that out before the final whistle.
- D.J. Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst, Hassan Haskins, Derius Davis, Michael Burton and Tucker Fisk: Combined this bucket of bucketheads is projected for 3.7 touches tonight. Davis is the main punt and kick returner for Los Angeles.
- Blake Watson, Eric Tomlinson and LaDainian Tomlinson: Not tonight, fellas.
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