NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Cowboys: Week 16 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 48.0 projected total with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) holding the NFC South Divisional lead as they head to Jerry World to take on the Dallas Cowboys (6-8), who are still mathematically alive for the postseason. For tonight’s Showdown NFL DFS slate, we’re breaking down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for Buccaneers-Cowboys Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NFL DFS Picks: Buccaneers-Cowboys Sunday Night Football Week 16

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NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Cowboys Sunday Night Football Week 16: Mike Evans

Last year Evans led the league with 13 receiving touchdowns, and he is one shy of double-digit scores for the sixth time in his career and fourth time in the last five seasons. Rookie Jalen McMillan meandered through the first portion of the season after claiming the third wideout role during training camp. That should be no surprise considering he was playing behind the dominant duo of Evans and Godwin, along with an established tight end in Otton and a team that also keeps the running backs involved in the passing game.

The former University of Washington stalwart missed four games with injuries himself, but since the Week 11 bye McMillan has continued to make steady progress. This culminated over the last two games in 11 targets, nine receptions, 134 yards and a trio of tuddies. In this stretch, Evans tallied 16 targets, 13 catches, 228 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both of which came last week against the tough Los Angeles Chargers defense. The future Hall of Famer also put up a season-high nine receptions and 159 yards.

Sterling Shepard saw his targets trend down (seven, seven, six and one) as McMillan surged, but the veteran was on the field for nearly half of the snaps over the last four games. Trey Palmer and Rakim Jarrett will likely be between the lines for 12 to 15 offensive plays tonight, but neither had a target in the last two games and they have three combined since the Week 11 bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Baker Mayfield has thrived with Tampa Bay, which is a great story in perseverance. Not only did he have to replace Tom Brady, who is the greatest quarterback of all time and led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl title in their home stadium, but he had to shed his sordid and meandering history of past failures. In hindsight, however, does it seem like the troubles in Cleveland or Carolina were really his fault?

In 2017, the year prior to Mayfield being the top overall selection, it was DeShone Kizer (15) and Kevin Hogan (1) who were the Cleveland field generals. Bonus points for anyone outside of the workers laboring in the Factory of Sadness who remembered this tidbit. Tyrod Taylor had three starts in Mayfield’s rookie year, and in his final season, Case Keenum (2) and Nick Mullens (1) combined for three. Since then the Browns have seen Deshaun Watson (19), Jacoby Brissett (11), Jameis Winston (7), Joe Flacco (5), P.J. Walker (2) and Jeff Driskel try their hand. The team went back to Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday, giving the former UCLA Bruin his first start this year and fourth in the last two. Heck, even the Panthers have to be wondering “what if?” after seeing Sam Darnold (6), Walker (5), Andy Dalton (6) and Bryce Young (25) play since they had Mayfield.

Last year Mayfield was a Pro Bowler and the Comeback Player of the Year, and his numbers this season are even better across the board, save for his interceptions. Six of the last 10 quarterbacks to face Dallas passed for multiple touchdowns, and the Cowboys allowed another six rushing scores. Only two reached the 300-yard milestone, but that is in play tonight against the banged-up secondary. The former Heisman Trophy winner has three rushing touchdowns this year while averaging a career-best 19 yards per game. That is not a lot, but it is something against a defense that has struggled to keep tabs on mobile quarterbacks.

Running Back | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Rookie Bucky Irving has been outstanding this season, leading his draft class in yards from scrimmage. He had 75-plus combined yards in seven of the last eight games, giving him a mulligan while injured in Week 14 (10 snaps). He has been active in the passing game, trailing Rachaad White (48) by only eight targets. Irving is 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, so a full-time role is not really in the cards, but even splitting the snaps with White has not been a deterrent for his fantasy supporters.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Irving projected for 13.1 carries and 66.4 yards, along with 3.1 targets, 2.9 receptions, 21.1 yards and nearly a 70% probability of finding the end zone. White has been earmarked for 8.9 carries and 44.7 yards, accompanied by 3.1 targets for 2.9 receptions and 21.9 yards, plus a 50% chance of finding pay dirt.

Sean Tucker should at least be on the field for a handful of plays, but his involvement will be minimal unless something befalls one of his counterparts in-game.

Tight End | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

It is hard to know what will transpire without Otton given he has been on the field for just over 92% of all offensive plays this season. In Weeks 8 through 10, which were the first three full games without Evans and Godwin, Ryan Miller saw five, three and three targets. Since then he has two total, and Payne Durham has one. Miller is an undrafted free agent out of Furman who was active for one game last year. In college he was a two-time All-American (FCS) as a wide receiver prior to converting to a tight end role in the hopes of catching on at the next level. He is definitely in play on both DraftKings ($200) and FanDuel ($5,500) as an extreme salary saver.

Durham is more of a traditional blocking tight end at 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, and the Buccaneers selected him in the fifth round out of Purdue last year. He has nine career targets for seven receptions and 92 yards in his 26 pro games. It will be interesting to see if third-year man Ko Kieft gets his first target of the season. In his first two years, he had 15 targets for 82 yards and a pair of scores, getting his first touchdown courtesy of Brady.

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Kicker | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Chase McLaughlin has played for seven teams in his six seasons, including stints with the Chargers, 49ers, Colts (twice), Jaguars and Jets. Finally, he was able to secure the full-time gig for Cleveland in 2021, Indianapolis in 2022 and he has been with Tampa Bay since the start of last year. In his three-plus seasons as a regular, he has been excellent on point after touchdowns (converting on 132 of 135, 97.8%) and from 50-plus yards (splitting the uprights on 27 of 33, 82% attempts).

Defense | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Tampa Bay’s 38 sacks this season are tied for 10th in the NFL, though Rush’s sack percentage of 4.3% is the fifth lowest in the league this season. However, turnovers tell a different tale — the Buccaneers may only be middle of the pack in takeaways, but Dallas is averaging 1.7 giveaways per game, which are the fifth most. Of course, that all could be moot if coach McCarthy gets conservative late in the game.

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NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Cowboys Sunday Night Football Week 16: CeeDee Lamb

Since Week 10, when Cooper Rush became the full-time replacement for Dak Prescott, Lamb is averaging 10 targets per game, seven receptions and 81.6 yards. He also had a touchdown in each of the last two games. The volume should again be there tonight, but so will the attention of the defense, and with Rush overseeing more of a pop-gun offense, it is going to be the PPR goodness that carries Lamb to a critical fantasy score.

Brandin Cooks is back, and he had 15 targets over the last three games while battling Jalen Tolbert for the WR2 role. Tolbert actually has surpassed Cooks, though for fantasy purposes and with Rush under center, it is far closer than it would be as compared to having Prescott running the show. Speedster and returner extraordinaire KaVontae Turpin will be on the field for a dozen plays and should have at least two or three adventures schemed just for him. He is no longer an extreme punt, but at $3,000 on DraftKings, he is a viable play for those crafting five or more lineups. The $7,000 cap hit on FanDuel makes it tough to recommend him outside of for those creating 50-plus lineups.

Jerry’s guy, aka Jonathan Mingo, will undeservedly be on the field for 12 to 15 offensive plays. How in the world the Panthers got fourth- and seventh-round selections for Mingo is just wild. He and Jalen Brooks are fighting over the scraps on this offense, which is not exactly bountiful these days.

Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview

Quarterback | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Rush has an 8-4 record in his 12 starts over the last four years for Dallas, with a 3-3 mark this season. Considering the decimated defense, anemic rushing attack and pitiful offensive line play, that isn’t too bad. What is awful, however, is the 1-6 record for the team at home this year, and the next loss will knock them out of the playoffs unless Washington beats Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon, which would already have sealed the Boys’ fate.

Across the last two games, Rush is averaging a tick under 200 passing yards, though he does have five touchdowns and one interception. He is going to need to work the short routes in order to keep this offense moving since it is unlikely that the running game will be able to get much going against Vita Vea and company.

Running Back | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Since Week 10, only Sincere McCormick (78) has rushed for more than 43 yards against the Pewter Pirates, with Devin Singletary scoring the lone touchdown in that stretch. It would seem that the silliness of Dalvin Cook and Deuce Vaughn as running back options is finally over, though the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott is still making it on the field for around 15% of the snaps over the last month.

Rico Dowdle is the clear lead back, but with the offensive line woes, a backup quarterback who is a game manager on his best days and this tough matchup, well, it makes for a long row to hoe tonight. Dowdle should get a couple of targets, and he could approach five or so if the Cowboys are smart about getting the ball into play rather than having him run into the teeth of the Tampa defense. Coach Mike McCarthy has not been particularly creative without Prescott, so Dowdle running off tackle 15 times tonight is the probable outcome. While that was great over the last four weeks against the likes of Washington (19 carries for 86 and zero touchdowns), the Giants (22/112/1), Cincinnati (18/131/0) and Carolina (25/149/0), it is unlikely to find success against Tampa Bay.

Hunter Luepke is a fullback type whom the Cowboys have been using in pass protection and the lone running back on far too many plays for his plodding skillset. It seems the team has realized having him run the ball is a wasted play, but he could be in line for a couple of targets. Somehow red zone carries are still going to Elliott, so the only real path to DFS impact for Luepke is on DraftKings ($400), where two catches for 17 yards would have him approaching a profit on his miniscule salary.

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Here’s a sneak peek: Watch how the Single-Lineup Simulator evaluates a middling Buccaneers-Cowboys lineup for Week 16 Sunday Night Football on DraftKings. Ready to take your DFS game to the next level? Sign up for one of our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages today and start optimizing your lineup ROI!

Tight End | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Jake Ferguson looked like the next in a long line of successful tight ends, earning a Pro Bowl nod in his first year as the full-time starter. This year things have been rougher, with injuries costing the third-year tight end a trio of tilts and his services needed as a blocker cutting down on his route participation. He did have six and four targets in the last two games, but the red zone love has been nonexistent, as he is still looking for his first touchdown of the year and his last red zone opportunity was back in Week 9.

Luke Schoonmaker had a moment as the Ferguson replacement, but he had two and zero targets in the last two games. Brevyn Spann-Ford saw one pass from Rush during the last three games, so he too is looking like a dry well for DFS purposes.

Kicker | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Second-year kicker Brandon Aubrey continues to push Justin Tucker for the title of best current kicker in the league. Last year the rookie earned First-Team All-Pro honors, leading the league with 36 made field goals on 38 attempts. This year, he already has 32, along with a 65-yarder, which is the second longest in league history, trailing only the 66er converted by Tucker. For his career, Aubrey has nailed 21 of 23 (91%) of his kicks from beyond 50 yards. Enjoy!

Defense | Buccaneers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 16

Dallas had a wicked 18 sacks over the last four games, but six were against the hapless Giants in Week 13 and another six at the expense of the Panthers last Sunday. The team had eight picks in the last six games, though again, the secondary is beyond thin and five of those interceptions were off of a rookie, Young and Drew Lock. Mayfield had five interceptions and nine sacks during his last three outings, but this is not setting up well for the Cowboys, even at home.

NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Cowboys Sunday Night Football Week 16: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Cowboys

1. Mike Evans: Captain, My Captain!
2. CeeDee Lamb: Needs the volume to continue to save his fantasy season.
3. Bucky Irving: Will be wildly popular; keep in mind he is only on the field for half the snaps.
4. Baker Mayfield: What a wild career with the many twists and turns.
5. Brandon Aubrey: The range is insane, and while field goal opportunities are fickle, he could see several tonight.
6. Rachaad White: You can play him with Irving or as direct leverage in the hopes White has the hot hand or something befalls the rookie in-game.
7. Cooper Rush: Not bad for a career backup once he gets going.
8. Rico Dowdle: Touches should be there; hopefully, a few of the baseline carries end up as dump-off passes.
9. Chase McLaughlin: Jerry World is a terrific kicking environment.
10. Payne Durham: DraftKings only, where he is at the $200 minimum salary.

Secondary Options

1. Jalen McMillan: Rookie is dialed in; he replaces Durham on FanDuel.
2. Brandin Cooks: The NFL nomad is still getting it done.
3. Sterling Shepard: If McMillan falters, the longtime Giant is capable of stepping in to settle things down.
4. Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin: Tolbert is on the field more; Turpin gets designed plays and is the main returner.
5. Ryan Miller: It will be interesting to see how the field shakes out in its love for Miller or Durham on DraftKings.

Lottery Tickets

1. Tampa Bay D/ST: Fantasy goodness could be slim if coach McCarthy goes into his turtle shell offense.
2. Dallas D/ST: Will be on the field a lot; sadly, this unit is relying on understudies at all three levels.
3. Ezekiel Elliott: Can he fall into the endzone on prime time for one last jump into the Salvation Army Red Kettle?
4. Luke Schoonmaker and Hunter Luepke: Things are beginning to get bleak.
5. Sean Tucker and Jalen Brooks: There are worse plays.
6. Jonathan Mingo, Ko Kieft, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett, Princeton Fant, Devin Culp and Ryan Flournoy: These would be those.

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