Thursday Night Football features an NFC West battle as the 7-6 Los Angeles Rams are in San Francisco, taking on the 6-7 49ers in a high-stakes matchup with serious playoff implications, and we’re going to find some winning NFL DFS lineups. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal rosters for Thursday Night Football.
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NFL DFS Picks: Rams-49ers Thursday Night Football Week 15
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NFL DFS Picks for Rams-49ers Thursday Night Football Week 15: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.18
FanDuel: 16.91
We have all seen what the kid can do, and he has confirmed that last year was no fluke. After posting a rookie season for the ages, Puka Nacua has regained that form, despite missing five games after spraining his knee in the opener.
Veteran Cooper Kupp, who had arguably the greatest season ever by a wideout in 2021, went down with an ankle injury in the second game. Los Angeles has posted a 5-2 record since this duo returned to action in Week 8, but the Rams are barely staving off postseason elimination.
Nacua has out-targeted Kupp in five of the last seven games, and both are dominating the offense with 71 and 64 looks, respectively. That represents nearly 71% of all targets to wideouts in this timeframe and just over 57% of the team targets. Kupp has five touchdowns during this stretch, while Nacua has four, including his first career rushing touchdown last weekend. Nacua comes with a $1,000 premium on DraftKings and a $1,500 bump on FanDuel. You can employ both players in the same lineups.
Demarcus Robinson has 28 looks since the return of the dynamic duo, though things have been sliding with four, three, three and one in the last four games. Most concerning is the sliding snap share to a season-low 61% each of the last two weeks. Conversely, Tutu Atwell has ramped back up over the last two games with 39% and 45% offensive participation rates. In the last four games he has two, three, two and three targets.
Covering the targets makes it clear that there really is not much love going to the secondary wide receivers and pretty much none to the tertiary duo of Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington, who combined for two targets in the last four games (both to Johnson).
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Matthew Stafford has been efficient, though his volume has fallen off over the last month. He tossed two tuddies in each of these outings, including four back in Week 11 against New England. He also has avoided interceptions in this period, which is nice to see after he rattled off six consecutive games with a pick.
San Francisco had a pair of cold-weather road games, which saw the 49ers outscored 73-20 in Weeks 12 and 13, so the defense did not see much of a passing push from either Josh Allen or Jordan Love. The last Sunday, the Niners easily dispatched the Chicago Bears 38-13, so the defense had the luxury of sitting back and dealing with rookie Caleb Williams. Tonight it is facing a balanced attack from Los Angeles, which could prove to be a tough test, even at home.
Running Back | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
In the two most recent losses for San Francisco, Josh Jacobs (26 carries for 106 yards and three touchdowns) and James Cook (14/107/1) found ample room to operate. Rookie Blake Corum saw eight carries in each of the last two games, logging 42 and 34 yards. He is the only running back aside from workhorse Kyren Williams who has received opportunities since Week 4.
Williams saw 68% and 83% snap shares the last two games, which are two of the three lowest games this season. Of course, against Buffalo he had a season-high 29 carries, so his time on the field was all about him. Expect around 15 carries as a baseline, though the do-everything back has a scant three targets in the last four games, with two coming against Buffalo.
Tight End | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Close your eyes and pick. That is not a great analytical approach; however, this position has been a complete afterthought over the last month. Colby Parkinson leads the way with five targets in the four games, while Hunter Long had one in each of the last two and Davis Allen had his lone target in this span back in Week 12. Eight targets in four games for one tight end would be low, but for three it is miniscule.
Kicker | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Weather and game scores have not been in favor of rookie Joshua Karty, who has seen just three field goal attempts over the last four games. He has missed two of these, but at least he has converted on 14 of his 15 point after touchdown attempts in this window.
Defense | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
San Francisco is allowing only two sacks per game, while the Rams are collecting just over a pair of sacks per tilt. The 49ers have suffered the fifth-most turnovers, while Los Angeles is in the middle of the pack, generating just over one takeaway each game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Rams-49ers Thursday Night Football Week 15: George Kittle
George Kittle
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.68
FanDuel: 17.07
George Kittle is seventh in the league among players with at least 10 games, recording 72.7 receiving yards per game. His eight touchdowns rank fourth, and he has missed two games due to injuries.
On Sunday, the future Hall of Famer had 151 yards, converting all six of his targets. He also has games of 92 and 128 yards, plus six other games with one touchdown.
Eric Saubert has the other eight targets to the tight end position, with three over the last four games. Expect to see him on around one-quarter of the offensive plays, and we will potentially get a glimpse of Jake Tonges or Brayden Willis.
Jauan Jennings is truly the WR1 for the 49ers, as he has far better results than Deebo Samuel. The 27-year-old played well over 90% of the offensive snaps over the last five games, leading the team with 42 targets in this period. Samuel had 25 targets in this same timeframe, and rookie Ricky Pearsall saw 11 and the remaining wideouts accounted for two opportunities.
Samuel is clearly frustrated and has been since tensions boiled over in Week 10, when he lost his cool with the field goal team. There is a good chance that this is his last hurrah in San Francisco, with Brandon Aiyuk having signed a new deal prior to being lost for the season.
San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Brock Purdy has been dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder, but he did rack up 325 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago on Sunday, plus 353 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10 at Tampa Bay. Considering every skill position player for San Francisco has been injured at some point this season, including Purdy himself, he has at least been able to chug along from a fantasy perspective.
Running Back | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Tonight the Stokastic projections give Isaac Guerendo 17.3 carries, 84.2 yards and nearly a 60% probability of scoring a touchdown. He also is earmarked for 2.8 targets and 2.3 receptions for another 16 yards. He went down in the last game due to a sprained foot but has been steadfast with his intention to play tonight. Caveat Emptor.
Backing up the rookie is Patrick Taylor Jr. The fourth-year back spent his first three seasons in Green Bay, though he has just 79 career carries for 311 yards, with 22 targets for 15 catches and 81 yards. He has two career rushing touchdowns, including one on Sunday.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn will be the emergency backup but barely has more production than Taylor, despite being in the league for one additional season. If Guerendo is inactive, things are going to be even more chaotic than normal for DFS purposes.
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Kicker | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Jake Moody has not gotten many field goal attempts over the last month, though that makes sense with San Francisco being involved in three consecutive games that have been decided by 25-plus points. He missed two of his three kicks in Buffalo and three of six in Tampa Bay but has otherwise converted on his field goals and extra points.
Defense | Rams-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15
San Francisco rolled up a wicked seven sacks against Chicago on Sunday, though the team had only eight combined sacks in the four preceding matchups. The team has just two takeaways in the last five games. Los Angeles has allowed 28 sacks this season, which is around league average, and the Rams have ceded only 12 turnovers in 13 games.
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15: Rankings
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Now let’s jump into the final rankings for the Rams-49ers Thursday Night Football slate!
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Rams-49ers
- Puka Nacua: Captain, My Captain!
- Jauan Jennings: Who could have seen this leap coming?!
- George Kittle: Just keeps getting it done.
- Cooper Kupp: Steady Eddie.
- Kyren Williams: Dwindling targets really hurt upside and push the focus even further towards touchdowns.
- Brock Purdy: Has been vacillating between Mr. Irrelevant and Purdy good (cwidt).
- Isaac Guerendo: If there were not a foot injury, he would be ahead of Williams due to less wear and tear.
- Matthew Stafford: This is a top-heavy section; he has 19-plus fantasy points in five of the last seven games.
- Tutu Atwell: DraftKings ($2,600) only; on FanDuel he is below the kickers.
- Deebo Samuel: This has been a rough season for Samuel.
Secondary Options
- Jake Moody: Slight nod for homefield advantage.
- Joshua Karty: Kickers will be popular as salary savers; they just are hard to rate above the top options.
- Patrick Taylor Jr.: Proactive salary adjustments on DraftKings ($7,600) and FanDuel ($10,000) are good to see. It also will keep his popularity in check if Guerendo is indeed active.
- Ricky Pearsall: Could luck into a touchdown, otherwise volume is dodgy.
- Blake Corum: Seeing workload tick upwards; also has a path to success via mop-up duty in a lopsided game.
Lottery Tickets
- San Francisco D/ST: It has been a rough month for this unit.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Not sexy but respectable.
- Demarcus Robinson: Salary not falling as fast as his target share.
- Kyle Juszczyk and Eric Saubert: Juszczyk has the edge, but this is the last fantasy-viable duo for the 49ers.
- Colby Parkinson, Hunter Long and Davis Allen: Vaya con Dios, Mis Amigos.
- Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing, Jordan Whittington and Ke’Shawn Vaughn: These guys may actually see the field. Vaughn in play if Guerendo is out; Cowing returns punts.
- Ronnie Rivers, Xavier Smith, Tyler Higbee and Brayden Willis: Smith returns punts, Higbee won’t return until next week, Willis still awaiting his first target of the season.
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