NFL DFS Picks for Packers-Seahawks: Week 15 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 46.5 projected total with the fiery Seattle Seahawks (8-5) hoping to extend their four-game winning streak against the 9-4 Green Bay Packers. The solid total and tight spread add layers of strategy and decisions to make for the night NFL DFS slate. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re focusing on the Packers-Seahawks showdown for Week 15 Sunday Night Football. We’ll break down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown contests.

NFL DFS Picks: Packers-Seahawks Sunday Night Football Week 15

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NFL DFS Picks for Packers-Seahawks Sunday Night Football Week 15: Josh Jacobs

Seattle is allowing 126.5 rushing yards per game and the seventh-highest yards per carry at 4.7, though the 10 touchdowns allowed are respectable. Ten different running backs have at least 69 rushing yards against the Seahawks, and Jacobs is likely to be the 11th. Chris Brooks has passed Emanuel Wilson in the pecking order, playing nearly 30% of the snaps over the last month, while Wilson has fallen below 10%.

Wilson has not seen a target since the Week 10 bye, and Brooks has five plus another four in Week 9, which was also the last time Wilson had an opportunity. Brooks does not have the same rushing workload, with eight carries in this four-game stretch, while Wilson has 14 totes. Brooks is $2,400 on DraftKings, and Wilson checks in with a $1,200 cap hit. This reverses on FanDuel with Brooks ($6,000) getting a $1,000 discount.

Green Bay Packers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Jordan Love has tossed 21 touchdowns passes, ranking sixth overall, despite missing two games. Sadly, he has 11 interceptions, which are the fourth most in the league. He averages the eighth-most passing yards per game (247.6) among signal-callers with at least 11 appearances.

Seattle no longer has the Legion of Boom, but the Seahawks have been able to employ a bend-but-don’t-break approach for most games. They are allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards with 212.5 per game, and only four quarterbacks topped 260 yards — none reached the 300-yard milestone. Seven field generals have led their teams to multiple passing touchdowns, but that is not too bad, considering the overall level of talent on this defense. Across the last four games, the Seahawks have allowed 217 passing yards on average, with five total aerial scores.

Wide Receiver | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Jayden Reed leads Green Bay with 59 targets; however, he had only one look in the Week 14 matchup in Detroit. Unfortunately, that play ended up being counted as a drop, giving Reed seven on the year. That has Reed in the top 10 for that ignominious category but still behind teammate Dontayvion Wicks, who has eight. Reed also leads Green Bay with 44 receptions, 693 yards and six touchdowns. For perspective, 73 other players in the league have more targets than Reed.

To be clear, this is not intended to bash the Green Bay wideouts but rather highlight how crowded the offense is with talented youngsters. It also doesn’t help that the Packers have the sixth-most rushing attempts in the league, with 30.5 per game. That works out to 396 carries, which is well ahead of the 367 passing attempts, plus 16 sacks.

We haven’t even mentioned Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, let alone Bo Melton and Malik Heath. Too bad Aaron Rodgers left because he perceived this team to have a lack of pass-catchers and an inability to add or develop more quickly.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Watson at 5.9 targets, Doubs for 5.8 and Reed not far behind at 5.1. It is also worth mentioning that Reed has 13 rushing attempts, 128 yards and a touchdown. Now that Jacobs is in the fold, he has not had too many backfield snaps, but he is averaging one end around or jet sweep per tilt this season. Tight end Tucker Kraft is next with 4.6 projected targets, Wicks at 3.1, Jacobs 2.9 and Brooks 1.3. Melton and Heath have 1.2 combined looks, so they are afterthoughts tonight.

Looking at snap shares, surprisingly the oft-injured Watson has 92% and 94% in his last two games, though those are his two highest participation rates this season but also coincide with Doubs sitting out due to a concussion. Tonight a more realistic projection of 60% to 65% based on the 10 other games he has played is appropriate. Dontayvion Wicks also benefited from the absence of Dobbs, getting his two highest offensive participation rates as well. Reed missed out since the team also went with more two-tight end sets, which left him on the sidelines as the main slot receiver. Coach Matt Lafleur has already said he will make sure that does not happen again, as Reed can play all three receiver positions.

Best guess is that we will see Doubs on the field around 75% of the plays, with Watson and Wicks taking the biggest hits to their playing time. Still, four is a crowd and hard to support in this run-heavy offense. Melton and Heath did not have a single look while Doubs was in the concussion protocol.

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Tight End | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Green Bay had two tight ends on the field nearly 30% of the time over the last two games, though the Packers also had just 104 total plays. The team was efficient with 61 points in this stretch, plus Kraft was active with a team-high 12 targets in this pair of performances. In the nine games without Luke Musgrave, Kraft had 37 targets, while the rest of the tight ends had seven. Since the Week 10 bye, Ben Sims has one target, which came in the last game, while John FitzPatrick had his only offensive opportunity in Week 12.

Kicker | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Rookie Brayden Narveson was released in mid-October after he missed on five of his first 17 field goal attempts. Brandon McManus has never been trustworthy from distance, but he has converted 11 of 12 field goal attempts for the Packers, including one from 50-plus yards, and his only miss was from 46 yards in Green Bay against Detroit in Week 9. He has spent the majority of his career as an outdoor kicker, so he does have that in his favor tonight.

Defense | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Last week Seattle allowed only one sack after ceding 19 in the prior four games. The team has been working on the run- and pass-blocking schemes, which may actually have helped when considering in Week 12 the Cardinals racked up five sacks in Seattle but got just one at home on Sunday. Green Bay does not blitz often, and since getting eight sacks against Tennessee in Week 3, the Packers have only 22 sacks in 10 games. They have the third-most takeaways with 24 this season, split evenly between interceptions and fumble recoveries. The Seahawks are in the bottom third of the league with 19 turnovers, including a hefty 12 interceptions.

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NFL DFS Picks for Packers-Seahawks Sunday Night Football Week 15: Zach Charbonnet

Kenny McIntosh will again serve as the RB2, and the seventh-round, second-year player out of Georgia was solid with seven carries for 38 yards, catching both of his targets for another seven. George Holani was on the field for two plays, getting one target for a negative-1-yard reception. The undrafted rookie out of Boise State is a longshot at best to get touches.

Green Bay allowed the one-two combo of Jahmyr Gibbs (15 carries, 43 yards, zero touchdowns, six targets for six catches, 30 yards and a touchdown) and David Montgomery (14/51/1, 5/5/33/0) to post relevant games on Thursday Night Football, with both the Detroit Lions and Packers having a full week off after playing on Thanksgiving. Things were a little tougher for De’Von Achane (7/14/0, 9/8/56/1) and Raheem Mostert (5/19/0, 3/2/15/0) on Turkey Day Eve, and the Packers definitely slammed the door shut on Christian McCaffrey (11/31/0, 4/3/37/0) in Week 12.

The Green Bay front seven is mostly healthy, though the defensive backfield is missing Jaire Alexander and Javon Bullard, with Corey Ballentine (knee) questionable but expected to play tonight. It will be interesting to see what new head coach Mike Macdonald does with his underlying pass-heavy tendencies after intentionally putting a focus on the running game last week.

Seattle Seahawks Positional Preview

Quarterback | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Geno Smith led the league with a 69.8% completion rate in 2022, setting a franchise record in the first season without Russell Wilson. That gave Smith his first Pro Bowl nod as well as the Comeback Player of the Year while leading the Seahawks to a surprising postseason berth. Last year, Smith received his second Pro Bowl nomination, though Seattle just missed out on the playoffs.

This year, Smith is completing 69.5% of his passes while also ranking third with 267.2 yards per game. Touchdowns are down as he has just 14, and his interceptions are up to 12, but we can still consider Smith to be a borderline core play in the single-game format tonight. Smith has been sacked 40 times this season, which trails only Caleb Williams (56) and C.J. Stroud (41) while being tied with Sam Darnold. It makes sense that the team at least tries to run the ball again to see if it can keep pressure off of Smith. Fortunately, the NFL nomad does his best work in the short-game, so he should still be able to create some fantasy goodness for his pass-catchers.

Wide Receiver | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the team in targets (102), which is silencing his detractors more and more each week as he moves on from a forgettable rookie season. DK Metcalf is second on the team with 90 targets, though he did miss Weeks 8 and 9, when JSN piled up 20 opportunities. Since his return, Metcalf has 29 targets to Smith-Njigba’s 27 looks.

Tyler Lockett was once a feared return man, earning a Pro Bowl nod his rookie season, along with first-team All-Pro honors, which he followed up with second-team accolades the next two years. Of course, this is season 10 for the late-bloomer, and he has clearly lost a step and is the obvious WR3. Still, he has 10 targets in the last four games, with a trio of looks in three. Jake Bobo is the only other wideout to have a target since the Week 10 bye, and his lone chance was back in Week 12.

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Tight End | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Noah Fant missed a month with a groin injury, though he has four targets in each of the last two games since returning to action. AJ Barner performed well in his stead, recording 15 looks in the three games without Fant, though he had two and one targets the last two games. Veteran Pharoah Brown has just 10 targets this season, but he saw two, one and two in the last three games. Fant is the preferred option, but Barner looks good around lineup No. 10 and Brown is in the mix on DraftKings ($400) as an extreme salary saver for those crafting more than a couple dozen lineups.

Kicker | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

This is the 10th season in the league for Jason Myers and his sixth in Seattle. He earned Pro Bowl honors in 2018 with the New York Jets and again in 2022 with the Seahawks. In 2020, he led the league by converting all 24 of his field goal attempts, including a league-long 61-yarder. Last year his 42 field goal attempts were second to none, making Myers an unsung hero. December in Seattle is the time for drizzly precipitation, though at least there is no wind in the forecast. Myers should be able to handle misty weather if it does come into play.

Defense | Packers-Seahawks NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 15

Seattle is around league average with 32 sacks, though Green Bay has allowed just 16 this season, trailing only the 13 suffered by the Buffalo Bills. On the turnover front, the Seahawks have just 15 takeaways, but the 11 interceptions could increase with Love under center.

NFL DFS Picks for Packers-Seahawks Sunday Night Football Week 15: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-Seahawks

1. Josh Jacobs: The last three games he has tallied seven touchdowns, which are the most in Green Bay history. That is impressive when considering his peers include Ahman Green, Aaron Jones and Dorsey Levens, along with all-timers Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung.
2. Zach Charbonnet: Will be one of the most popular players in the single-game format and on FanDuel and Yahoo for their featured slates, which include Sunday Night Football.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: He has earned the nod, though let personal preference as well as projected popularity factor into choosing him or the next guy on DraftKings.
4. DK Metcalf: Has the speed to score from anywhere on the field and size that terrifies most linebackers. Easy click on FanDuel ($12,000) with a $2,500 discount as compared to JSN.
5. Tucker Kraft: Salary saver and not competing directly with the wideouts. OK, he is competing with them — but he has the clear edge over the Green Bay tight ends and we need some salary relief.
6. Geno Smith: Slight nod over Love, but it is close.
7. Jordan Love: More likely to lose out on touchdowns to Jacobs in this offense.
8. Jason Myers: Does not get the credit he deserves from the fantasy world.
9. Kenny McIntosh and Chris Brooks: More salary savers with less popularity than the kickers. The floor is worse, but upside exists. McIntosh is at the $5,000 minimum on FanDuel, while Brooks has the edge on DraftKings in the full-PPR scoring format.
10. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed: Good luck choosing the right one, but none should specifically be in the section below.

Secondary Options

1. Noah Fant: Has the edge over Lockett, since Fant is the clear TE1.
2. Tyler Lockett: DraftKings ($4,000) is making things interesting, while FanDuel ($9,500) is including past performance in the salary.
3. Dontayvion Wicks: Even with Doubs sidelined, he has not made good on his potential.

Lottery Tickets

1. Green Bay D/ST: The team still gets sacks without blitzing. It will be fun to see if Seattle has shored up the offensive line woes or last Sunday was a mirage.
2. Seattle D/ST: Sadly, there are no fantasy points awarded for the crowd noise inducing false starts.
3. AJ Barner: The rookie has flashed upside enough to be a potential tight end of the future, particularly with the out on Fant’s $8.49 million option for next year.
4. Emanuel Wilson: Last Packer worthy of his own line; should see a few carries and would be the early-down replacement if something befalls Jacobs in-game.
5. Jake Bobo and Pharaoh Brown: Will be on the field, targets are a tougher hurdler to clear, Brown is more appealing on DraftKings ($400).
6. Bo Melton and Ben Sims: Mirror image of their Seattle counterparts one line above but with a longer row to hoe.
7. Malik Heath, Dareke Young, John FitzPatrick, Goerge Holani, Brady Russell, The Brady Bunch, Jaelon Darden and Christopher Darden: Much like the white Ford Broncos of the mid-90s, your mileage may vary.

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