NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Packers: Week 13 Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football brings this year’s Thanksgiving edition as the Miami Dolphins (5-6) bring a three-game winning streak to Green Bay to take on the Packers (8-3) as 3.5-point road dogs. The projected total and outcome for this Dolphins-Packers matchup provide valuable insights for crafting winning NFL DFS lineups in Week 13. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal lineups for Thursday Night Football.

Already crushing your DFS game? Take it to the next level with expert picks from Tails By OddsShopper, where seasoned pros share the sharpest betting strategies to keep you ahead of the competition.

NFL DFS Picks: Dolphins-Packers Thursday Night Football Week 13

Don’t miss Stokastic’s ultimate Black Friday deal! For a limited time, score 50% off any single-sport Core or Max package with promo code BLACKFRIDAY.

Unlock premium DFS tools like Sims, projections, ownership data, and more — all for HALF PRICE. Everything you need to dominate your contests is just one click away!

NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Packers Thursday Night Football Week 13: De’Von Achane

Achane is fourth on the team with 55 targets, which is only one fewer than Jaylen Waddle. While the former Texas A&M stalwart has dipped to four targets each of the last two games, he has seven receptions, 56 yards and, most importantly, two touchdowns. Achane has scored in four of his last five outings, including a pair of two-tuddy triumphs.

Green Bay is in the middle of the pack (cwidt) with 112.7 rushing yards allowed per game and 4.3 per carry. Nine different opposing ball-carriers have rushed for 65-plus yards against the Packers, and six different running backs found pay dirt. Achane has two paths to success, and he is the clear foundational piece in all formats Thursday.

Miami Dolphins Positional Preview

Quarterback | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Tua Tagovailoa has been at the helm for the last five games, having missed just over a month after suffering yet another concussion in Week 2. Head coach Mike McDaniel has changed up the offense, focusing more on spreading out opposing defenses and focusing less on the deep part of the field. Tagovailoa has been above average with his time to throw, which is key in helping keep the talented field general upright and leading the offense.

This approach should mesh well if the Packers continue to have the defense focus on keeping everything in front of them while blitzing with far less frequency than most teams. Of course, head coach Matt LaFleur could always shake things up, but is he really going to go outside of his comfort zone this tried-and-true approach.

Tagovailoa has been locked in over the last two games, with 288 and 317 passing yards and seven total touchdowns. Since the Week 10 bye, Green Bay has had it easy, going against rookie Caleb Williams and then last week backup Brandon Allen. The Packers offense tends to keep things chugging along, focusing on the running game. That helps keep the defense fresher with longer breaks to regroup between drives. Look for the Dolphins to try to push the pace, looking for lots of short-quick hitting strikes and mixing up the run and pass, regardless of down and distance.

The other thing going for Tagovailoa is that Green Bay is a lucky 8-3, getting to catch several opponents when they were down. Will Levis, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud (missing key pass-catchers) are not even close to comparable to a healthy Miami offense. Another bonus is the absence of cover man Jaire Alexander (knee) and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring).

Tyreek Hill has been a first-team All-Pro in each of his seasons with Miami, and the 30-year-old has earned that honor in three other seasons, with Pro Bowl recognition in all eight of his NFL campaigns. This year the volume, big plays and efficiency have all been down. Some of that could be due to his wrist injury, which will likely require offseason surgery, but it is also the continued improvement of Achane and a revised offensive approach after Tagovailoa’s most recent concussion.

Since Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, those five games have seen Hill earn 32 targets, Jaylen Waddle 26, Achane 29 and tight end Jonnu Smith 35. This is indicative of McDaniel looking to scheme all areas of the field and keep defenses off balance and not coming after Tagovailoa. That, along with the more conservative approach of the Green Bay defense, is likely to mean another non-descript game for Hill. We all know that Hill can teleport to the end zone from anywhere on the field, but that is shaping up to be an uphill battle tonight.

Over the last three games, Odell Beckham Jr. has nine targets, while Malik Washington has seen seven. That clearly is not a lot, but it does confirm they are far from forgotten and well ahead of the rest of the flotsam and jetsam at this position, with all other wideouts not yet referenced in this article combining for one target since Week 4.

Tight End | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

In the last nine games, nine opposing tight ends have scored a touchdown or topped 43 receiving yards. Smith is playing the best ball of his career, and while he is a capable blocker, most of that work is left to Durham Smythe and Julian Hill. Even with the rising salary, this is a nice matchup for Smith, who should be able to work the short routes and seams.

Smythe will be on the field for around 40% of the offensive action, with Hill cresting over 50%. Smythe has one target in each of the last three games, while Hill has doubled that. This duo has not had a red zone look over the last four games, which, of course, makes sense given all the other options.

Kicker | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Jason Sanders continues to be a fine kicker, with an 83.4% success rate across his six-plus seasons in the league. This year has been outstanding from long range, converting on 7 of 9 (78%) from beyond 50 yards. He also is perfect on 20 point after touchdown attempts.

Defense | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Green Bay has ceded only 15 sacks, which are the second fewest in the league. This does not bode well for the Dolphins, who have only 21 sacks in 11 games. Even with the run-heavy lean, the Packers have suffered 11 interceptions, trailing the league-worst Tennessee Titans by only two. Miami averages one takeaway per game, so it is hard to truly be excited by this unit.

Get our DFS Sims for FREE! Unlock elite DFS tools at no cost by signing up with one of our partners. Here’s how to claim your free month of Core DFS:

• Pick a Partner: Choose one of our exclusive sign-up offers and register.
• Make Your First Play: Deposit funds and either place a bet or create a pick’em entry.
• Snap Some Screenshots: Capture your welcome email and proof of your first settled play.
• Send Us an Email: Email the screenshots to [email protected] and let us know which Sims sport you’d like access to.

That’s it — Once verified, you’ll earn a free month of Core DFS!

NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Packers Thursday Night Football Week 13: Josh Jacobs

A complete back has not really tested Miami this season, and between the cold weather, threat of long passes, and injuries to linebackers Tyus Bowser and Anthony Walker, along with cornerback Kendall Fuller, more backups are going to be on the field. The Green Bay blueprint has been to focus on the run but make teams pay with the pass when they eventually start crowding the box.

Jacobs should be on the field for around two-thirds of the snaps, receiving an 80% share of the offensive opportunities. Backup Emanuel Wilson is likely to get a handful of carries and a target or two, but any path to upside would need to be via luck (touchdown) or an injury befalling Jacobs. UDFA Chris Brooks has eight targets over the last four games, while Wilson has only one, along with 10 carries. There could be a minor changing of the guard, though Wilson would likely be the early-down replacement if anything happens to Jacobs.

Green Bay Packers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Jordan Love missed Weeks 2 and 3 then returned to action with four aerial scores in two of the next three games as Minnesota and Arizona felt the wrath of Aaron Rodgers’ former replacement-in-waiting. The Packers soured on Rodgers a while ago, but benching a four-time NFL MVP and future Hall of Famer is never easy. Ultimately, the Packers and Jets were able to work out a deal, sending Rodgers and his contract to New York, swapping first round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, with a couple of ancillary selections and conditional picks balancing things out.

Love has been outstanding, with 11 multi-touchdown games last year and hitting that mark in six of his nine starts this season. Though he is nimble in the pocket, Love is not really a running quarterback. In his last 23 starts, he is averaging 11.3 yards per game, albeit with 23 first downs and five touchdowns on 68 carries. Efficiency and touchdowns continue to be the path to fantasy production for the former Utah State star.

Wide Receiver | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Remember when Rodgers was pouting about a lack of wideouts after Green Bay dealt Davante Adams to Las Vegas? He then thought he took “the best” remaining option, Allen Lazard, with him to New York. Oops, perhaps if the ill-informed amateur scientist had a little more patience and hubris, he would be presiding over one of the best collections of young receivers in the game.

Romeo Doubs (concussion) is out, so that means there is an opening for Bo Melton and Malik Heath to earn opportunities. Each has popped up on primetime and short slates before, so they are far from secret options on the single-game slate. Of course, for the multi-game contests on FanDuel and DraftKings, they are intriguing differentiation options for those hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

Christian Watson seems to have put his hamstring woes behind him, though in the frigid temperatures tonight, who knows what will transpire? Jayden Reed is the safest option, though he has not distinguished himself this season after several eye-popping plays last year. Dontayvion Wicks also will get a bump in three-wideout sets.

Jalen Ramsey and Storm Duck will be asked to hold down the fort with Fuller out due to a concussion. There are a lot of options to cover, and with the Packers looking to run the ball, it gets tricky trying to determine which of the Green Bay wideouts will be the best options prior to the final whistle.

Want to boost your edge? Check out our Single-Lineup Simulator — a key feature of our NFL DFS packages. This tool helps you evaluate and hand-build lineups with higher ROI. Dive deeper with our Single-Lineup Simulator Guide to see how it works.

Curious about its impact? Watch how the Single-Lineup Simulator analyzes a Dolphins-Packers DraftKings lineup for Week 13, delivering actionable insights for Thursday Night Football. Ready to get started? Choose from our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages and start optimizing your lineups today!

Tight End | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Tucker Kraft should be on the field for 80% to 90% of the snaps, and he has been a steady outlet this season with the fourth-most targets on the team. Of course, that is only 42 and just three since the Week 10 bye, though the Stokastic projections have Kraft for a strong 4.4 targets and a one-in-three probability of reaching the end zone.

In the seven games since Green Bay lost Luke Musgrave to injury, the rest of the tight ends have seen only half a dozen targets. Ben Sims is the most likely to get an offensive chance. John FitzPatrick is dealing with a back issue and may not be active, which leaves probably Andrew Beck or someone from the practice squad suiting up. The Packers do not use a lot of two-tight end looks, so they could be content with only two active tonight.

Kicker | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Brandon McManus is no stranger to outdoor kicking late in the season, having spent the first nine years of his career in Denver. He replaced Brayden Narveson in mid-October after the rookie missed on five of his first 17 field goal attempts. McManus has always had accuracy issues from distance, but he remains steady inside of 45 yards.

Defense | Dolphins-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13

Even though the Packers tend to eschew the blitz, they do have 2.5 sacks per game, which is not too far below league average. That is what the Dolphins are allowing as well, plus Tagovailoa has been sacked seven times in the last three games. It is going to be below freezing tonight, which will definitely play in the favor of the defenses and, of course, the team that calls the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field home. Bank on two takeaways tonight.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13: Rankings

Stokastic provides everything you need to crush NFL DFS, no matter the slate, format, or platform. If you haven’t already, check out a Stokastic+ NFL package for powerful tools like the NFL DFS Sims and Lineup Generator, and essential data like NFL DFS projections, ownership projections and NFL Top Stacks!

With that in mind, let’s dive into the final rankings for this Dolphins-Packers Thursday Night Football slate!

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Packers

1. De’Von Achane: Captain, My Captain!
2. Josh Jacobs: Cold weather alert!
3. Jordan Love: Used to Lambeau Field in the late season.
4. Jonnu Smith: Personal preference, but also being above the field is a savvy strategy.
5. Jayden Reed: Likely lead option, but that is not guaranteed.
6. Tua Tagovailoa: Lack of rushing upside hurts.
7. Tyreek Hill: Not the best defensive setup, and weather not in his favor; still could punish his non-believers.
8. Tucker Kraft: Fits in nicely with the conservative offense.
9. Dontayvion Wicks: Will he finally reward the NFL Best Ball backers?
10. Jaylen Waddle: Phenomenal game against New England, but that was his only double-digit-fantasy point effort in the last 10 games.

Secondary Options

1. Brandon McManus: Needs to be inside 45 yards.
2. Bo Melton and Malik Heath: Former is more of a regular on offense, latter is the main kick returner but a solid enough pass-catcher that he could outperform Melton. If Doubs were healthy, this duo would be in the middle of the next section.
3. Green Bay D/ST: Homefield and facing a warm weather quarterback.
4. Jason Sanders: Better leg than McManus; not as experienced with the cold.
5. Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert: Better off going with just one per roster.

Lottery Tickets

1. Miami D/ST: Love susceptible to picks, but it is hard to capture fantasy goodness against a run-heavy offense.
2. Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson: Brooks a little intriguing as he may have moved into the passing-down option whenever Jacobs is not on the field.
3. Malik Washington and Odell Beckham Jr.: Former is less popular with The Masses and also the main kick returner.
4. Alec Ingold: Meh.
5. Ben Sims: Only if FitzPatrick is inactive.
6. Julian Hill, Durham Smythe, River Cracraft, John FitzPatrick: The rest.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS Tools & Expert Advice