NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Bills: Week 13 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 44.5 projected total with the crumbling San Francisco 49ers (5-6) heading to Buffalo to face the surging Bills (9-2) as 6.0-point road dogs. The tight total and touchdown spread add layers of strategy and decisions to make for the night NFL DFS slate. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re focusing on the 49ers-Bills showdown for Week 13 Sunday Night Football. We’ll break down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown contests.

NFL DFS Picks: 49ers-Bills Sunday Night Football Week 13

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NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Bills Sunday Night Football Week 13: Josh Allen

The Bills have the third-most points this season with 29.1 per game, while the 49ers have been in the middle of the pack, allowing 23.6 points per tilt. San Francisco has had a steady stream of above-average quarterbacks going against them, and only Geno Smith (312 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions) logged more than 243 yards is a crazy overtime game. Otherwise the Niners have held strong against Kyler Murray (195/1/1 and 83 rushing yards for a score), Patrick Mahomes (154/0/2, 39/1), Dak Prescott (243/2/2), Baker Mayfield (116/1/0), Smith again (221/0/1, 29/1) and Jordan Love (163/2/0) last Sunday.

Tonight the 49ers will be without defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Jordan Elliott, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and defensive back Deommodore Lenoir. Linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (knee) and lineman Kevin Givens (groin) are questionable. San Francisco still is formidable, but that is a downgrade from terrifying. In a bit of surprise news, linebacker Fred Warner has said he has been dealing with an ankle fracture since Week 4. Though he is not on the injury report (thanks, NFL integrity committee), that could be the cause for his mediocre play. Now, of course, this could be a “hairline fracture” akin to shin splints, but that still does not give the NFL a good look for its transparency.

While it looks like the snow impact is mostly over, game-time temperatures will be in the mid-20s tonight, with a constant breeze ranging from 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Expect the #BillsMafia to be extra toasty and spicy tonight.

Buffalo Bills Positional Preview

Running Back | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Josh Jacobs and the Packers laid out the blueprint for attacking the 49ers with a heavy ground attack. Jacobs had 26 carries for 106 yards and a trio of tuddies. Six different running backs have gone for at least 70 rushing yards against this defense, though the 49ers have at least made opposing ball-carriers earn it with a rate of 4.2 yards per carry that is just outside the top 10.

James Cook is the lead back, but he has settled into a consistent 55% snap share, with Ty Johnson in the 30% range and rookie Ray Davis on the field for around a dozen offensive plays, mostly of the low-leverage type.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Cook earmarked for 15.06 carries, 73.19 rushing yards and a 50% probability of a rushing touchdown. Allen is next with a tick over nine carries for 41.82 yards and a 30% chance for a score. Davis projects for 4.52 attempts and nearly 22 yards, and Johnson rounds things out for 1.51 totes and 7.32 yards. The latter two players could easily flip-flop, especially if the rookie makes any mistakes. They could also see more work but have it be proportionally less if Buffalo goes with a ground game behind Cook and Allen, working in short passes.

Wide Receiver | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Rookie Keon Coleman has missed the last two games with a wrist injury, and he was limited in practice this week. Dalton Kincaid is also out, and while he is nominally listed as a tight end, he works mostly from the slot or split out from the tackles. The change in available pass-catchers has helped veteran Curtis Samuel see more action, and he has 14 targets over the last two games, compared to just 19 in the first nine. He was, of course, learning a new playbook and dealing with his own injury, but that is a significant shift.

Amari Cooper missed two games with a wrist injury as well, so tonight will be only the fourth time the NFL nomad has taken the field for Buffalo. Prior to missing Weeks 9 and 10, he had five, two and three targets, playing on 50% of the snaps in each of his last two games. Depending on the wind and weather conditions, there may not be too many extended passing attempts from Allen and, of course, we haven’t gotten to his trusted options.

Khalil Shakir was the main returning wideout with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (plus Trent Sherfield Sr. and Deonte Harty) moving on to other teams this offseason. Across the last four games, Shakir has seen 10, seven, nine and 12 targets, working mostly out of the slot. Veteran Mack Hollins has seen a bump with Coleman out, and even if the youngster is available, the team may elect to go with experience. He has five, four and two looks in the last three games.

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Tight End | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Dawson Knox has a strong history with Allen, posting 15 touchdowns across 30 games in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He saw a season-high six targets last week, and between the weather, familiarity and, most importantly, a DFS-friendly salary, Knox is a strong option in all formats for Sunday Night Football. Quintin Morris and Zach Davidson each had one target last week, though that was the first for Davidson and only the second for Morris this season.

Buffalo did go with two-tight end sets for just over one-third of its offensive sets last week, plus fullback Reggie Gilliam was on the field for 12% of the snaps as well. This information is less about finding fantasy goodness and more about pointing out that the Bills can quickly be as conservative as a turtle.

Kicker | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Jake Moody suffered a high-ankle sprain, which cost him Weeks 6 to 8. The Week 9 return was rough with the youngster missing three of six field goal attempts, though he converted the game winner. He has just one field goal attempt in each of the last two games, which he successfully converted, along with all five point after touchdown attempts since returning to action. This is going to be a cold and miserable game with wind — snow is in the forecast as well.

Defense | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

San Francisco is just inside the top third of the league with 16 takeaways, ranking seventh with 11 interceptions. Buffalo has lost only two fumbles and thrown five picks. The 49ers have an average sack rate this season, which is not going to help against the Bills, who have allowed a league-low 13 quarterback takedowns.

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NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Bills Sunday Night Football Week 13: Christian McCaffrey

Of course, the fantasy pundits would be singing a different tune if CMC had scored in any of these games. Instead he averaged 14.3 carries for 49.7 yards, with 5.3 targets turning into 4.1 receptions and another 44 yards. Jordan Mason has seen the field just 14 times in these three games, and Isaac Guerendo got three, two, and no snaps.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has averaged around a 40% snap share during this stretch, but he has nary a carry and only three targets, converting all for a combined 26 yards.

Barring injury, the volume should be there for McCaffrey, which is some comfort in what projects to be a lower-scoring game. Plus the PPR-fantasy goodness could add up, even if the 49ers are conservative. That gameplan could also help Mason and Guerendo get more low-leverage carries between the 20s, but coach Kyle Shanahan has been hesitant to shake things up after the success of last year.

San Fran Positional Preview

Quarterback | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Brock Purdy missed the last game with an injury to his right shoulder, which, of course, is not a good thing for a quarterback. He did get in a full practice on Friday, but we will have to see how effective he is in the passing game, and it will be too late to reverse course after the game begins.

Best guess is that this is going to be a conservative game plan from both teams, mostly due to the weather. Buffalo can clinch the AFC East for the fifth consecutive season tonight, while a loss for San Francisco leaves them with a very long row to hoe in the NFC Wild Card race. After a wickedly efficient 7.0% touchdown rate last year, Purdy has fallen back to 4.2% this season, which is bordering on irrelevancy. Every key San Francisco skill-position player has been hurt, along with left tackle Trent Williams. That and the extensive run to the Super Bowl last year have taken a toll for the overall health of this roster.

It is hard to advocate for Purdy in the multiplier slot on any DFS site, but he is still a secondary option for a regular roster slot. Purdy does have four rushing scores, a career-high 26.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry this year. The desperation for a win and a potentially conservative game plan that gives him a few scrambles seem to outweigh the reinjury risk with the entire season on the brink right now.

Wide Receiver | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Jauan Jennings has been outstanding this season, stepping in to fill the offensive void for multiple injured pass-catchers. Jennings himself was out for Weeks 7 and 8, but in the three matchups since the Week 9 bye, he has played on a team-high 91%, 95% and 92% of the snaps. This has led to 11, 11 and seven targets, and he has more than risen to the occasion after Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the year.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Deebo Samuel slated for a couple of carries and around 10 yards, with half a dozen targets for around 50 more. This has been a rough season for the sixth-year veteran, and it will be interesting to see what transpires this offseason. In any event, that is then and this is now (s/o S.E. Hinton). Ideally, the week off for Purdy has helped his shoulder issue improve, and by proxy, that elevates the offense to a little more efficiency.

Ricky Pearsall missed the first six games of the season after suffering a gunshot wound during a robbery gone wrong. He has flashed solid upside but got the brunt of a zero-target day last week with Brandon Allen at the helm. Pearsall should at least get targets tonight, but there is quite the battle for short- to mid-range opportunities in this offense.

Ronnie Bell, Chris Conley and Jacob Cowing round out the rest of the position, though over the last three weeks they have combined for one target and 13, five, and nine offensive plays. Bell and Cowing have special teams roles, but it still would not be a shock at all for one of this trio to be inactive tonight.

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Here’s a sneak peek: See how the Single-Lineup Simulator breaks down a 49ers-Bills lineup for Week 13 Sunday Night Football on DraftKings, featuring some of the top picks we’ll highlight. Ready to elevate your DFS game? Sign up for one of our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages today and start optimizing your lineup ROI!

Tight End | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

George Kittle missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury, but he was back on the field for 84% of the snaps on Sunday. Kittle has 59 of the targets to this position, and Eric Saubert has seven. Three of those were in games without Kittle, so it this is pretty much a one-man show. Kittle also is a key blocker for the 49ers rushing game, so the loss of Williams may push him more towards that role. Kittle scored in the last three games and in seven of his nine appearances, with a two-touchdown effort in Week 6 against Seattle.

Leaving no stone unturned, Jake Tonges and Brayden Willis serve as the deeeeeeeeeep TE3 options, with four combined snaps over the last three weeks. Just to show where they are in the pecking order, when Kittle was out in Week 11, this duo had zero offensive snaps, with the team going sans-tight end for the two plays Saubert was off the field.

Kicker | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Tyler Bass will kick in his 78th NFL game tonight midway through his fifth season as the Buffalo kicker. He was selected in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and while he has not yet earned any postseason accolades, he has been a steady option. The team knows his limitations, allowing him to attempt only a pair of field goals from 50-plus yards this season and 21 in his career. From inside 50 yards, he has converted at an 88% clip with steady success. Again, weather is not going to be favorable, but at least he is familiar The Ralph (aka Highmark Stadium, previously known as Ralph Wilson Stadium from 1998 to 2015 and still known as such for those steeped in nostalgia).

Defense | 49ers-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13

The Bills are in the middle of the herd with close to 2.5 sacks per game. Allen was sacked twice last week in his first start since 2021, and he has a 7.3% sack rate in limited action. On the season, San Francisco has ceded just over two sacks per game. Buffalo has 21 takeaways, only two shy of the league-leading Houston Texans (23). Expect at least one interception from Allen, with about a 70% chance that the Niners lose a fumble on Sunday Night Football.

NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Bills Sunday Night Football Week 13: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Bills

1. Josh Allen: Could see the rushing touchdowns return tonight.
2. Christian McCaffrey: Ugh, but we have to keep going back — right?!
3. James Cook: He has 35 red zone opportunities, with the other running backs combining for 23. This has led to Cook recording three multi-touchdown games and 11 total scores.
4. Khalil Shakir: Should get the short-route love.
5. George Kittle: No salary relief but can get there with a couple of high-leverage looks.
6. Dawson Knox: Most of the cap savers are on the Buffalo side, but that could evaporate depending on the availability of Coleman. Knox should be fine, regardless.
7. Jauan Jennings: Weather and Purdy’s shoulder could keep things conservative, making it harder for Jennings to pull away.
8. Buffalo D/ST: Should be acclimated to this weather, and with six sacks, five interceptions and a fumble recovery over the last two weeks, this unit is dialed in.
9. Deebo Samuel: Spendy for the inconsistent production.
10. Tyler Bass: Fifth season dealing with inclement weather at his home venue.

Secondary Options

1. Curtis Samuel: Slides to the bottom of this section if Coleman is active.
2. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson: Hard to advocate for both in the same lineup, but each is live for half a dozen looks with the expected game flow, though things can always go off script in a hurry — this is the NFL, after all.
3. Jake Moody: Dealt with injuries and angry teammates, now gets a harsh environment.
4. Amari Cooper: No volume in his three games.
5. San Francisco D/ST: Soooooo many injuries, but the unit has remained effective.

Lottery Tickets

1. Jordan Mason: If DFS gamers were calling the shots, he would be getting more work to preserve McCaffrey.
2. Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman: Meh unless Coleman is out again.
3. Kyle Juszczyk and Isaac Guerendo: Juszczyk should get a couple of opportunities; Guerendo might be in the doghouse after fumbling his only kickoff return attempt.
4. Quintin Morris, and Eric Saubert: Will be on the field; targets are a different hurdle to clear.
5. Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, Jacob Cowing, Zach Davidson, Jalen Virgil, Jake Tonges and Reggie Gillingham: Some will be inactive, some may be spotted on the telly, but opportunities are going to be sparse for this motley crew of special teamers and bottom-of-the-depth-chart characters.

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