Sunday Night Football has a 48.5 projected total with the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) heading to Los Angeles to face the Rams (5-5) as 3-point road favorites. The tight total and narrow spread in this matchup add layers of strategy and key decision-making to the NFL DFS landscape. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re focusing on the Eagles-Rams showdown for Week 12 Sunday Night Football. We’ll dive into NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Showdown contests.
NFL DFS Picks: Eagles-Rams Sunday Night Football Week 12
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NFL DFS Picks for Eagles-Rams Sunday Night Football Week 12: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $14,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.55
FanDuel: 21.37
Remember back to early January in 2021, back when the NFL season was just 16 games and the Philadelphia Eagles were hosting the Washington Football Team with a chance for the Iggles to best their NFC rivals and knock them out of the playoffs with a victory?
That would be the game that was the fourth start of Jalen Hurts‘ career, but he was replaced by Nate Sudfeld for “reasons” (also known as tanking), allowing Washington to make the playoffs as a 7-9 squad and become just the third team with a losing record to do so in a full season.
Yeah, it really happened just like that with a 20-14 loss where a Dustin Hopkins field goal for the Football Team was the only score in the second half. Philadelphia made the postseason each of the next three years, including a run to Super Bowl LVI, which ended up in a heartbreaking 38-35 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Hurts has made the last two Pro Bowl squads while also finishing second in the 2022 NFL MVP race. Yes, the 26-year-old still takes his share of sacks, and he may not accumulate 20 aerial scores, but he does already have 11 rushing touchdowns thanks to the “Brotherly Shove” continuing to be a thing, even with center Jason Kelce retired. For those that continue to think Hurts is not running as much as in prior seasons, his 10.3 attempts per game are his second most (11.0) of his four seasons as a starter, and while his 41.7 yards per game are down from his 50-ish average in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, they are still more than his 35.6 of last year.
Sacks are still an issue, but that is a fine tradeoff for what is projecting to be at least six fewer interceptions, as compared to last year. Speaking of projections, Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have Hurts for 220.3 yards, 1.66 touchdowns and 0.81 turnovers, with nearly a dozen carries for another 44.31 yards and a 40% probability of a rushing touchdown.
But wait … there’s more … over the last four games, Sam Darnold (240 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions), Geno Smith (363/3/3), Tua Tagovailoa (207/1/1) and Drake Maye (282/2/1) have been able to keep the chains moving through the air against Los Angeles, and the Rams have now allowed multi-touchdown games to six of the 10 teams they have faced.
Sometimes love don’t feel like it should, but Hurts so good.
Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview
Running Back | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
It is true that the Rams have allowed only one 100-yard rusher this season, but Los Angeles has seen seven other ball-carriers go for 73-plus yards. The team has not allowed a touchdown to opposing running backs since Week 5, but that is likely to change on Sunday Night Football.
Saquon Barkley currently leads the league with 113.7 yards per game and 197 carries. This is not fluff as he is averaging 5.8 yards per tote, so it is not entirely volume based. He has eight touchdowns on the ground and two more through the air, with his quarterback accounting for 11 rushing scores. The former New York Giant is fourth on the team with 29 targets, though he has three or fewer aerial opportunities in half of his outings.
Kenneth Gainwell will sneak in for around 20% of the offensive snaps, but he has exactly one target in the last seven games while typically getting around five carries. The franchise favorite has yet to reach pay dirt, and his two best outings in half-PPR scoring were 5.4 last week and 7.2 one month ago in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants.
Will Shipley has been between the lines for only 28 offensive snaps, and he had more than two plays on three occasions. Check back for the last week or two of the season if Philadelphia clinches early; otherwise he will need multiple things to go his way to even have a chance at more than a couple opportunities.
Wide Receiver | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
DeVonta Smith is out again with a hamstring issue, so that means the defense can focus all of its attention on A.J. Brown. Considering that the Rams have allowed five different wideouts to clear the 100-yard threshold, with the defense also ceding 13 touchdowns to the position, even the extra eyes on Brown may not be enough.
Brown has not had double-digit targets since the opener, but tonight he has a strong probability of getting heavy volume. Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have Brown earmarked for 8.7 targets, 6.1 receptions, 89.8 receiving yards, along with a 60% probability of scoring a touchdown. Dallas Goedert is second with 5.5 targets, while colossal disappointment Jahan Dotson is in line for 2.3 opportunities. That is a precipitous drop off, which is also leading to thinner popularity for the tertiary pass-catchers.
In the three games without Brown this season, one of which Smith missed as well, Dotson had one, three and four targets. That was at the beginning of the year; however, even with more time to acclimate to the Philadelphia offense, the former Washington Commander has only 17 total targets. Since the Week 5 bye, the other Philly wideouts have seen a scant five looks. Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith will at least be on the field in three-wide receiver sets, but they project for a combined 2.1 targets.
Britain Covey (shoulder) was activated off the injured reserve suffering an injury in Week 3. This is key timing to have him back, and we did see him pop up for six targets in Week 2 on Monday Night Football when Brown was out earlier this season. Considering he is at the $200 minimum salary on DraftKings, expect him to pick up steam. He is $6,000 on FanDuel, which is $1,000 over the floor but also tougher to pay off in the half-PPR format. Keep tabs on the inactive list and tune into Stokastic’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date information and fantasy analysis.
Tight End | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Goedert was out between Weeks 7 and 9, but in the two games upon his return he played 63% and 89% of the offensive snaps. This allowed him to see three and five targets, and it is crucial to note that he got 11 in Week 3 when Brown was out and then eight the following week when Smith joined Brown on the sidelines. Despite missing a trio of tilts, Goedert is third on the team in targets. There is a viable path for the seventh-year veteran to reach double-digit fantasy points, even in the half-PPR scoring system.
Expect Grant Calcaterra to be on the field for around two-thirds of the snaps, and you should consider him with the likes of Wilson and Smith. Beginning in Week 6 when Goedert went down early, Calcaterra had four, one, three and five looks. Aside from Covey, it would seem that he is a better bet than Wilson, Smith and Parris Campbell.
Kicker | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Jake Elliott earned a Pro Bowl appearance in 2021 then was a second-team All-Pro in 2023. Last year he converted a career-best 30 of 32 (94%) of his field goals, which is lofty to say the least. It should be a treat to be in the controlled-climate arena in La La Land. It is always interesting to see how many casual gamers forget that the NFC East is outdoors, aside from the games occurring in Jerry World.
Defense | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Los Angeles is ceding only 2.1 sacks per game, though Philadelphia is collecting 2.8 quarterback takedown on average. The Rams and Eagles are aligned with the offense and defense each accounting for around one turnover a game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Eagles-Rams Sunday Night Football Week 12: Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $11,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.81
FanDuel: 16.64
Though the results have not quite been as dynamic as his Philly counterpart’s, Kyren Williams has been “The Man” in the Los Angeles backfield. He has been on the field for 88% of the offensive plays, while the backups have combined for five targets and 38 carries.
Williams has eight rushing touchdowns and another two through the air, accompanied by 51 red zone opportunities. The main fear is that he will end up getting lost in the shuffle of the passing game, though in his last four outings he had seven, three, six and no targets, averaging just over three per game on the season.
Ronnie Rivers last stepped between the lines on offense in Week 4, and Blake Corum has averaged around seven snaps per game since then. The rookie out of Michigan is likely to get a couple of totes and a target, with his only real path to DFS success being a fortuitous trip to the end zone or something befalling Williams in-game.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Matthew Stafford is posting similar stats to last season, when he was named to the Pro Bowl squad and finished eighth in MVP voting. The 36-year-old ranks sixth overall with 255.7 passing yards per game, and his 13 touchdowns have him just outside the top 10, which underscores how the game has evolved over the last three years. Stafford threw for 260-plus yards in five of his last six games and had two four-touchdown days. Ten of his 13 touchdowns came in the last four games, which coincides with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Philadelphia has been stout against the pass, though it has not really faced fierce competition. Since the Week 5 bye, Joe Burrow (234/1/1) and rookie Jayden Daniels (191/1/1) have been the only “good” signal-callers to square off against the Eagles. The rest of the motley crew includes Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Trey Lance, Cooper Rush and Trevor Lawrence (remember him?!).
Wide Receiver | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Kupp and Nacua or Nacua and Kupp, it is hard to pick the best of this duo. Kupp had a season for the ages in 2021, but injuries and Father Time have caught up with the future Hall of Famer. Nacua had one of the best rookie seasons ever, though he too has dealt with injuries this year. Even their salaries are an indication of how close this duo is, with Kupp earning a $500 premium on FanDuel and $400 on DraftKings. Playing both of them would be a savvy strategy and also corner the market share for the Los Angeles passing attack.
In the four games since the return of the dynamic duo, veteran Demarcus Robinson saw three, nine, five and four targets. He will likely be on the field for around three-quarters of the offensive action, and it just takes one broken coverage for him to have his supporters grinning from ear to ear. In this same stretch, Tutu Atwell played on nine, 26, 13 and seven snaps while seeing an average of two targets per tilt.
Injuries to Jordan Whittington have allowed Tyler Johnson to slightly move ahead for the WR4 role, with Xavier Smith showing perseverance in getting his first on-field action as a 27-year-old rookie. The Stokastic NFL stat projections have this trio getting a mere 1.1 combined targets in this matchup.
Tight End | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Davis Allen broke a lot of hearts last week on the main slate, where he was featured in a boatload of lineups. It seemed like he had wrested the TE1 role from Colby Parkinson, and plenty of DFS gamers had stars in their eyes after a six-target performance in Week 10. Sadly, last week he did not get a single look, while Parkinson scored on the lone opportunity that Stafford gave to the tight ends.
Allen was on the field for 65% of the offensive snaps, Parkinson got 37% and Hunter Long 35%. Aside from randomness, it is hard to look to anyone with certainty outside of Williams, Kupp and Nacua in this consolidated offense.
Kicker | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
Joshua Karly will kick in his 11th NFL game tonight, and he has had reasonable success as a sixth-round selection from Stanford. He has an 80% conversion rate, albeit with one miss in each of the 20 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49 and 50-plus ranges. Karty also has converted 19 of 21 (90%) point after touchdown attempts, so he should be able to stick around the league for the next half decade or more, barring any on-field meltdowns.
Defense | Eagles-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12
The Eagles are ceding 2.9 sacks per game, while Los Angeles is collecting 2.7 quarterback takedowns on average. The Rams are also top 10 in takeaways, and the Eagles are around the middle of the pack in giveaways.
NFL DFS Picks for Eagles-Rams Sunday Night Football Week 12: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Rams
- Jalen Hurts: So good.
- A.J. Brown: Live for two touchdowns.
- Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp: Coinflip; both are in the mix for the multiplier slot across the DFS sites.
- Dallas Goedert: Great point-per-dollar option with Smith sidelined.
- Saquon Barkley: Absurd volume; loses out on red zone opportunities to the vaunted “Brotherly Shove” play. In his last eight games he had 28-plus fantasy points four times, with a pair of single-digit outings. Boom/bust to the extreme!
- Kyren Williams: We are looking at a very top-heavy player pool tonight.
- Matthew Stafford: No rushing upside but does have multi-touchdown potential.
- Joshua Karty: Not bad for a rookie.
- Jake Elliott: May have a case of the yips after missing two field goals and an extra point on Monday Night Football.
- Demarcus Robinson: One time, Dealer — one time!
Secondary Options
- Britain Covey: DraftKings only; he unlocks everything as the $200 baller.
- Kenneth Gainwell: Clear RB2, but workload is more like an RB3 behind Barkley and Hurts with his low frequency. Also returns kickoffs.
- Philadelphia D/ST: Stafford has a proclivity for ill-timed picks.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Nine picks and five fumble recoveries in the last six games.
- Jahan Dotson: Maybe he gets lucky?
Lottery Tickets
- Grant Calcaterra: Strong argument that he is a better option than Dotson, which is just wild to consider since Dotson was the 16th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson: Consult your Magic 8-ball.
- Blake Corum: Long row to hoe.
- Tutu Atwell: Last Rams wideout worth of his own line.
- Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, Xavier Smith, Johnny Wilson, Ainias Smith and Parris Campbell: Close your eyes and pick.
- Will Shipley: Garbage time is about his only path to glory, also returns kickoffs.
- Hunter Long, C.J. Uzomah and Ronnie Rivers: Just say no.
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