NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Eagles: Week 11 Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football brings a 48.5 projected total with the 7-3 Washington Commanders heading to Philadelphia to take on the 7-2 Eagles as 3.5-point road dogs. The projected total and outcome for this matchup bring crucial strategy insights for NFL DFS this week. In our NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re diving into the Commanders-Eagles Thursday Night Football showdown for Week 11, focusing on key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you craft winning lineups.

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NFL DFS Picks: Commanders-Eagles Thursday Night Football Week 11

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Eagles Thursday Night Football Week 11: Jayden Daniels

The play of Daniels has helped take a lot of pressure off of a shaky offensive line, though his efficiency has faltered over the last few games as the league is figuring out ways to counter his talents. Last Sunday, the Steelers were able to limit Daniels to no touchdowns for only the second time this season. Excluding Week 7 when he left the game against Carolina after 10 plays with an injury, Daniels has four rushing touchdowns but only nine passing scores, while Marcus Mariota had two in relief off the rookie against Carolina.

Philadelphia has tightened up against opposing quarterbacks, since allowing Baker Mayfield to put up 347 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Of course, other than Joe Burrow, it has been a bunch of also-rans and backups, including Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Trevor Lawrence, Cooper Rush and Trey Lance.

It will be interesting to see how head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury game plan for a tough divisional matchup on the road with the NFC East lead at stake.

Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to return to action after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. The second-year back also missed Week 6 with an ankle issue. Best guess tonight is that Robinson will see most of the early down action, and veteran Austin Ekeler will handle the passing-down role. Ekeler is a solid runner, though the 29-year-old is no longer a feared frontline option.

While Washington is third in the league with 29 points per game, the Commanders do not run a high-volume offense. The team averages 28.8 pass attempts per game, which is in the bottom third of the league, and it has the fourth-most rushing attempts at 31.5 per game. This tends to keep the clock moving and makes it harder for this split backfield to consistently produce.

Clearly, the touchdowns have been there with Robinson scoring four times in his last five healthy games and Ekeler running for a trio of tuddies over the last two games, albeit with a slim 24 carries for 83 yards. Robinson is $200 more on DraftKings and $1,000 more on FanDuel. It is also important to note that although Ekeler has a 27-12 advantage in targets, 11 of those came in the three games that Robinson missed.

Jeremy McNichols has popped up as the clear RB3, and in the three games without Robinson, accompanied by a pair of hefty Washington wins, he has shown enough that he is likely to get a few looks tonight. The $8,000 on FanDuel will be tough to see a profit on; however, the $2,800 on DraftKings has McNichols in play for gamers crafting more than a dozen lineups tonight.

Terry McLaurin is the lead wideout for Washington, and it would be nice if the team could get someone else into the fold to at least keep defenses from swarming the former Ohio State star. The 29-year-old is on his way to a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, and with 6 more yards, he will reach 6,000 for his career. His six touchdowns are one off of his personal-best seven from his rookie season, and he ranks seventh with 71.1 yards per game among players that have at least seven outings.

Noah Brown joined Washington just prior to the start of the season when he was one of the final cuts by the Houston Texans. He has worked his way ahead of fellow newcomer Olamide Zaccheaus and rookie Luke McCaffrey, as well as Dyami Brown, who has only 80 targets in his three-plus seasons with the Commanders.

Brown has six or more targets in four of the last five games, while Zaccheaus has six targets in two appearances during that stretch, though only five total in the last two games.

Sunday saw Brown fall to a season-low 10 snaps, which is no surprise when looking at his downward playing time trajectory over the last two months. Zaccheaus was on the field for 16 offensive plays, which is his lowest participation rate in seven games. Brown tied McLaurin with 57 offensive plays, tops for Brown this season and the second most for McLaurin. McCaffrey held firm at 26 snaps, right in line with his last five games.

Tight End | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Zach Ertz has been a steady veteran presence for Daniels, and he has a whopping 54 of the 62 targets that have gone to this position. Rookie Ben Sinnott has seen all three of his targets over the last four games, and he has been a non-factor for most of the year for fantasy purposes. He does have 201 snaps through 10 games, but that is still 90 below John Bates, and this duo combined has just 55 more plays than Ertz.

Kicker | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Austin Seibert remains out with a hip issue, so Zane Gonzalez will be kicking for a second straight game. Injuries have hampered Gonzalez over the last couple seasons, with his last NFL gig coming in 2021 when he spent a dozen games in Carolina. The 29-year-old came into the league as a seventh-round selection by the Cleveland Browns in 2017. The former Arizona State standout was adequate, bouncing from Cleveland to Arizona and then Carolina during his first five seasons. He was traded to San Francisco, though ultimately worked out an injury settlement in 2023.

Defense | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

The Eagles allow a fair number of sacks with three per tilt, which is in line with the last few seasons. Washington has a similar sack rate while recording one takeaway per game. Philadelphia is a mirror of Washington in that the team is more conservative with the run game and tempo; this has led to a reasonable 12 turnovers for the Eagles.

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Eagles Thursday Night Football Week 11: Jalen Hurts

Washington allowed Russell Wilson to toss three touchdowns in a heartbreaking loss last week, with Daniel Jones, of all people, throwing two and running for a third in Week 9. Aside from Lamar Jackson in Week 6 and Burrow in Week 3, the Commanders have had a pretty easy quarterback schedule. Jackson (323 yards, one touchdown, one interception) and Burrow (324/3/0) are the only quarterbacks to clear 300 yards, and Baker Mayfield (289/4/0) is the only opposing signal-caller to clear 200 aerial yards and that was back in the opener.

It would appear that all of the Philadelphia skill position players are healthy, and Washington will be without recent acquisition Marcus Lattimore. The cover man extraordinaire is recovering from a hamstring issue, which he had suffered while with New Orleans.

In two games against the Commanders last year, Hurts had a pair of 319-yard efforts, with two touchdowns in Week 4 and four in Week 8.

Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview

Running Back | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Saquon Barkley has been outstanding for Philadelphia, and he is a key reason for the team climbing to a 7-2 record. However, he still takes a backseat to Hurts near the goal line, and he has not been particularly active in the passing game with only 26 targets on the season. The carries have been there, as he has 17 or more in all but two games and 22 or more in four other appearances. He also has six rushing and two receiving touchdowns, but again, he is a secondary option to Hurts when the team is in the shadow of the goalposts.

Kenneth Gainwell is likely in line for four or five carries plus a target or two. He is a better option on DraftKings ($3,200), though in play on FanDuel ($6,500) for those entering 20-plus lineups in the giant tournaments. Will Shipley has only seen mop-up duty, so it is hard to be excited about his DFS prospects in tonight’s crucial matchup for the NFC East crown.

Wide Receiver | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

A.J. Brown has played in only six games this season, but he has 553 yards, courtesy of a wicked 19.8 yards per catch on his 28 receptions. He has only three touchdowns, but that is partly due to missing time, seeing just 41 targets and also being one of many options in a stacked offense. In his last five healthy games, Brown has 84-plus yards or a touchdown in four of them.

DeVonta Smith has been dinged up, though he plans on playing tonight, despite having a balky hamstring. In the last five games where he and Brown have been healthy, Smith has 22 targets, while Brown has 31.

Jahan Dotson gets to face his former team after Washington moved the former first-rounder to Philadelphia, along with a fifth-round pick, in exchange for third- and seventh-round selections. In nine games, Dotson has eight receptions for 98 yards. He did have 11 touchdowns in his two seasons with the Commanders but barely cracked 1,000 yards on 83 receptions.

Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith are likely to each see around 15 offensive plays, but they have a combined four targets since the Week 5 bye and have totaled just 10 on the season.

Tight End | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Dallas Goedert is finally healthy, and he gets to go against his former mentor tonight in Ertz. Of course, that has no impact on this outcome other than being something fun for pundits to mention. Goedert saw the field for 43 offensive plays on Sunday, with Grant Calcaterra checking in for 42 and Jack Stoll rounding out the trio with 17 snaps.

Stoll had only one target in the three games that Goedert missed, while Calcaterra had eight but only one in the last game.

Kicker | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Jake Elliott is a talented kicker, earning Pro Bowl honors in 2021 and then being named to the All-Pro second team in 2023. There is a little worry as the 29-year-old has missed all three of his 50-plus yard field goal attempts this season. But for a consolation, he has converted on his 12 other field goal attempts and all 23 extra points.

Defense | Commanders-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11

Washington has allowed 21 sacks through 10 games, which is impressive considering all of the offensive line concerns to start the season. Daniels has tossed just two picks, also strong for a rookie. Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack with 25 sacks and a dozen takeaways.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11: Rankings

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Now let’s dive into the final rankings for this Commanders-Eagles TNF slate.

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders-Eagles

1. Jalen Hurts: Hurts so good.
2. A.J. Brown: Just a hunch he will find the end zone, even if volume is sparse.
3. Jayden Daniels: Likely will need his legs to carry him to fantasy success.
4. Terry McLaurin: The whole defense will be keeping tabs.
5. Saquon Barkley: Would be higher if he didn’t have to contend with Hurts near the goal line.
6. Noah Brown: Provides salary relief and should have half a dozen opportunities.
7. Jake Elliott: Used to kicking outside.
8. Zach Ertz: Perfect scenario for a “Remember Me?!” game.
9. Zane Gonzalez: Defenses may be more effective than the 48.5 total; could lead to more field goals for both kickers.
10. Brian Robinson Jr.: Assuming full health, he gets the edge over Ekeler.

Secondary Options

1. Devonta Smith: This is not a knock on his talent; it is just clear that Brown has moved well ahead of his wingman.
2. Austin Ekeler: Not much room for two backs in this offense, but Ekeler is in play. Also returns kickoffs.
3. Philadelphia D/ST: Huge chance to show a rookie quarterback how tough division road game are in the NFC East.
4. Dallas Goedert: Crowded offense, and with both teams’ rushing tendencies, the clock will likely be spinning.
5. Olamide Zaccheaus: Limited snaps but has still seen useful targets. Also returns punts.

Lottery Tickets

1. Kenneth Gainwell: Should get a few touches, though low value. Also returns kickoffs.
2. Washington D/ST: Opportunistic unit, even on limited chances.
3. Grant Calcaterra: TE2 who has shown flashes during Goedert’s absence.
4. Jahan Dotson: Meh, narratives aside.
5. Luke McCaffrey: No bonus points for relatives.
6. Dyami Brown: Not so dynamic.
7. Jeremy McNichols and Will Shipley: Former could get a few looks; both need mop-up duty to be fantasy viable. Shipley gets some kickoff return work.
8. Johnny Wilson, Ainias Smith, John Bates, Britain Covey and Ben Sinnott: All will play, but whatevs.

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