Sunday Night Football has a 48.5 projected total with the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) welcoming the meandering Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) as slim 1-point home favorites. This total and close spread adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Bengals-Chargers showdown for Week 11 Sunday Night Football. We’ll break down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Showdown contests.
NFL DFS Picks: Bengals-Chargers Sunday Night Football Week 11
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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Chargers Sunday Night Football Week 11: Ja’Marr Chase
Ja’Marr Chase
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $16,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.94
FanDuel: 14.87
There is a good chance that Tee Higgins (quad) will return to action for the first time since Week 7. During that stretch, Ja’Marr Chase has been sublime with 39 targets for 27 receptions, 361 yards and four touchdowns. This all culminated on Thursday Night Football last week when he roasted the Baltimore Ravens for 11 catches, 264 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets.
While Chase is likely to see less volume, having someone else for the defense to focus on should prove helpful.
In an ironic twist, in the five games Higgins has played, he has out-targeted Chase four times. Between Weeks 3 through 7, Higgins had 45 targets, while Chase saw 37. This is less about the downside impact to Chase and more about the presence of Higgins since the other-worldly wideout had games of 118 and 193 yards alongside his oft-injured wingman, accompanied by five touchdowns. Though Higgins didn’t clear the century mark, he did have at least six receptions or a touchdown in four of the five games.
Trenton Irwin will likely fade into obscurity, while Andrei Iosivas continues to see plenty of tie on the field, though his nominal target share could shrink further. Charlie Jones (groin) is out, so that leaves rookie Jermaine Burton as a wild card. Iosivas has four touchdowns, but he has a mere 35 targets on the season and has yet to top 40 yards in a game. All told he has 35 targets on the season, including five games without Higgins and two without Burton.
Burton was suspended for Week 9 due to being late to a mandatory team function. This is not his first foolish transgression, so it will be interesting to see how much patience the coaching staff has with him. He has only 10 targets on the season, and three came in Week 8 as Cincinnati started to expand his role and then another five on Thursday Night Football.
Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have Chase for 8.2 targets, Higgins for 6.9, Iosivas for 3.1 and Burton for just under one. The assumption is that Irwin also will get one, with seven looks going to the tight ends and six to the running backs.
Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview
Quarterback | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards, though Cincinnati has not yet had a bye. On a per-game basis, Burrow is third with 267.2 aerial yards and adds a strong 24 touchdowns against just four interceptions. He is also averaging 35.8 attempts per game, which is in the top 3 and can support the PPR goodness that DFS gamers desire.
Burrow has never been much of a rushing quarterback, though he is mobile in the pocket, and it is also well documented that he is willing to take a sack. Of course, when Your Ol’ Pal pointed out that the former LSU star was averaging just over 10 rushing yards per game in this Week 6 article, Burrow promptly raced to a 47-yard touchdown on Sunday Night Football, with that carry alone setting a personal-best single-game total; Burrow added 8 more yards on his three other carries. In the four games since that humble highlight, Burrow has 11 carries for 29 yards.
This is not going to be an easy road matchup, with Los Angeles allowing just 191.6 aerial yards per game, accompanied by just nine touchdowns. The team has been pretty lucky with opposing quarterbacks, surviving against Patrick Mahomes (245 yards, one touchdown and one interception) in Week 4 and shutting down Kyler Murray (145/1/1), who did add six carries for 64 yards and another score in Week 7. Otherwise it has been smooth sailing against Gardner Minshew II, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis.
Over the last three weeks, the Chargers have recorded 18 of their 31 sacks, while Burrow has been taken down at least three times in six games. Expect some fireworks from both sides in this matchup.
Running Back | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Chase Brown. That really could be the analysis. In the two games since Zack Moss was lost for the season, Brown has played 80% and 87% of the snaps while handling 100% of the running back touches. Kendall Milton was elevated from the practice squad for Week 9, appearing between the lines for five offensive snaps. The Bengals waived him after trading for Khalil Herbert, who saw the field for just two snaps on Thursday Night Football. Trayveon Williams played seven and one snaps over the last two games, representing his entire season total.
Technically, Herbert did touch the ball, though it resulted in a fumble on the handoff exchange that was assigned to Burrow. Even with that gaff, Herbert should at least get more opportunities tonight, otherwise Brown is going to be ground into dust by Christmas. Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have Brown earmarked for 16.1 carries, 75.4 rushing yards and 4.2 targets for another 29.3 yards, along with a 65% probability of scoring a touchdown.
Tight End | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Los Angeles has not allowed any opposing tight ends to score and only Travis Kelce (nine targets, seven catches, 89 yards, no touchdowns), Brock Bowers (8/6/58/0) and Trey McBride (7/5/51/0) have cleared more than 50 yards. In the last three games without Higgins, Mike Gesicki has eight, six and nine looks. In the four games with Higgins, the former Miami Dolphin has nine total targets. While Gesicki is more of a giant receiver than a tight end, Higgins is likely going to usurp his short-field work.
Rookie Eric All Jr. is out after injuring his right knee in Week 9, the same one that ended his final season at Iowa when he tore his ACL. This led to Tanner Hudson getting a season-high 29 snaps on Thursday Night Football, with undrafted rookie Cam Grandy on the field for five offensive plays. Drew Sample is the main blocking tight end, seeing targets in only four of the 10 games this season; the former University of Washington stalwart has nine total on the year.
Hudson has had quite the football journey, starting out as a quarterback and punter during his freshman season at Memphis. He then transferred to Southern Arkansas, where he moves to wide receiver and then ultimately tight end while still serving as the punter. He was not drafted but did spend time with Tampa Bay, San Francisco and the New York Giants prior to finding a home in Cincinnati. He profiles similarly to Gesicki in that he is more of a receiver than an in-line blocking tight end. Ten of his 14 targets came in the last two games, so he too is going to be pinched by the return of Higgins.
Kicker | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
On the season, Evan McPherson has missed four of his 17 field goal attempts. Three were from beyond 50 yards, though he did make his other three from that distance and one was from 47 yards. Field goals are a fickle mistress, and McPherson had only seven attempts in his last six games. That can change at any time, so the fourth-year veteran is still in play and he will hopefully enjoy the change to a climate-controlled venue.
Defense | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
The Bungles have been just that with only 17 sacks, which are the third fewest in the league. Still, Los Angeles has ceded 24 sacks in nine games, despite a run-heavy lean. That is in the bottom third of the league. The Chargers did not allow any quarterback takedowns last Sunday against Tennessee, but they did suffer six in Cleveland in the prior matchup and three in each of the preceding trio of tilts.
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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Chargers Sunday Night Football Week 11: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $14,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.51
FanDuel: 18.34
Justin Herbert has had 20 or fewer pass attempts in three of his nine starts, but he at least has been efficient. The fifth-year field general has 11 touchdown passes and only one interception. His 209.9 passing yards per game are well below his 269.2 career average, but that is to be expected with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams no longer in the fold and new head coach Jim Harbaugh preferring to focus on the running game.
There is some hope since the Chargers have increased their pass rate over expectation as the season has progressed, but now they are also fully healthy at the running back position with the return of Gus Edwards. This season Lamar Jackson has eight passing touchdowns against the Bengals, while the rest of the opposing quarterbacks have combined for nine. Aside from Jackson, only rookie Jayden Daniels (254) has cleared 236 passing yards.
Cincinnati is sixth in the league with 27 points per game, while Los Angeles has been dominant, ceding a league-low 13.1 points per game. The Bengals have a 23.5-point implied team total, so the hope is that they can put points on the board and get Herbert and Harbaugh to open up the offense and take advantage of a Cincy defense allowing 26.2 points per game.
Los Angeles Chargers Positional Preview
Running Back | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Last week Edwards returned to action after missing just over a month with a sprained ankle. Though he was on the injury report with ankle soreness, he also got in a full practice on Friday. He saw the field for 15 snaps in Week 10, carrying the ball 10 times for 55 yards. In his five healthy games, he has seen action on 102 offensive plays, adding one target. That is the main reason it is hard to be excited about the Rutgers product.
J.K. Dobbins has played well this season, particularly when we remember how many injuries he has dealt with over the last couple years. In Edwards’ absence, he averaged 17.5 carries per game for just under 70 yards and scored four total touchdowns. Last week he had 15 totes, and with Los Angeles being a likely Wild Card team, it is going to need Dobbins healthy for any sort of a puncher’s chance in the playoffs. It would be a surprise to see him above the 12- to 15-carry range, but not impossible.
The low-volume passing attack hurts Dobbins, as he has seen only 28 targets on the season, which ranks fifth on the team. Hassan Haskins will likely be the RB3 since he plays on special teams, meaning rookie Kimani Vidal may once again be inactive.
Wide Receiver | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Rookie Ladd McConkey has definitely been a bright spot in the passing game, and he has 54 of the 136 (40%) of the wideout targets. He is a priority play and actually warrants consideration for the multiplier slot on DraftKings in the full-PPR scoring format.
The other major surprise is that Quentin Johnston has become the WR2 after a dreadful rookie campaign. Yes, it helps that Allen and Williams are out of the picture, but there is nothing to besmirch the five touchdowns for Johnston this season, including one in each of the last two games. He is the downfield threat, and while that makes him a boom/bust option, it is lightyears ahead of last year’s performance. Johnston has missed two games due to injury, so he may still be a little overlooked, even in the single-game format.
Veteran Josh Palmer should be on the field for around half of the plays and good for three or four targets. He has played four seasons now with Herbert, but it is looking like his strong sophomore campaign back in 2022 was a result of injuries and a Chargers team lacking options.
D.J. Chark Jr. (groin) is intriguing as he finally was able to suit up and take the field last week. It was for only one play, but he could be the WR2 ahead of Johnston by Christmas. It would be a shock to see him in the starting lineup tonight, but even if he gets a couple targets, he is worthy of our attention on DraftKings ($1,200) and even on FanDuel ($5,500) for those crafting 20-plus lineups. Jalen Reagor is likely to take the biggest hit, and it would not be a complete surprise if he is inactive tonight, with Derius Davis being the sixth wide receiver to be used in emergencies since he is the main punt and kickoff return man.
Tight End | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Will Dissly is second on the team with 42 targets, but the former Seattle Seahawk has yet to find the end zone and he is averaging a career-low 8.2 yards per catch. Hayden Hurst is the TE2, though he has played only 17 snaps in the last two games. Stone Smartt was inactive due to injuries, so Tucker Fisk got his first action of the year with a hefty 23 snaps, though no offensive looks. Pay attention to inactives, but it is hard to be excited by anyone at this position once salaries are taken into consideration.
Kicker | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Cameron Dicker will be the kicker in his 38th game tonight, and the former Texas Longhorn has been economical, converting on 71 of 76 (93.4%) career attempts, including 11 of 15 (73.3%) from beyond 50 yards.
Defense | Bengals-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11
Cincy is allowing 2.3 sacks per game, with Burrow getting taken down at least three times in six of 10 games. The Chargers are averaging 3.4 sacks per game, which ranks third at this point in the season. The Bengals are turning over the ball once per game, while Los Angeles has 1.4 takeaways per matchup.
NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Chargers Sunday Night Football Week 11: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Chargers
- Ja’Marr Chase: Captain, My Captain.
- Chase Brown: Strong argument for the top spot, but he will be wildly popular.
- Joe Burrow: Yup, listing three Bengals at the top against the defense allowing the fewest points on the season.
- Justin Herbert: We know he is talented; does his coach care?
- Ladd McConkey: Core play on DraftKings for full-PPR scoring.
- Cameron Dicker: Unsung hero and we need salary savers.
- D.J. Chark Jr.: Discount Dandy; hopefully the field overlooks his return.
- Tee Higgins: Considering his contract status, it is unlikely he will return before he is fully healthy.
- Evan McPherson: Great name and great game!
- J.K. Dobbins: No slight on him, but at $10,000 on DraftKings and $13,000 on FanDuel, he needs at least 100 yards and a touchdown to reach breakeven status.
Secondary Options
- Quentin Johnston: It will take a long touchdown or a couple of 30-plus-yard receptions before he can be considered profitable.
- Will Dissly: Volume is a thing, plus tight ends and primetime touchdowns are well documented. Perhaps he will get off the schneid.
- Mike Gesicki: Return of Higgins is likely to curb volume for the short passes propping up Gesicki’s fantasy value.
- Andrei Iosivas: Has been wildly lucky with touchdown variance.
- Joshua Palmer: Meh.
Lottery Tickets
- Los Angeles D/ST: Should be good for a handful of sacks plus turnovers but likely to give up points.
- Gus Edwards: Needs a touchdown to be a difference maker.
- Khalil Herbert: Brown can’t get all of the touches again, right?!
- Cincinnati D/ST: Run-heavy approach for Los Angeles limits fantasy opportunities.
- Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample: Co-TE2s.
- Hayden Hurst and Stone Smartt: Co-TE2s, but more like TE3s based on fantasy volume.
- Jermaine Burton: Super scratcher ticket.
- Derius Davis: Main return man for the Chargers
- Jalen Reagor, Trayveon Williams, Hassan Haskins and Trenton Irwin: Reagor may not be active, Irwin is the likely punt returner for Cincy with Jones out, while Williams gets kickoffs. Haskins is a special-teamer who will be the emergency running back and kick returner for Los Angeles.
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