NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Ravens: Week 10 Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football brings a 52.5 projected total with the Cincinnati Bengals heading to Baltimore as 6-point road dogs to the Ravens. This total and projected outcome add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Bengals-Ravens Thursday Night Football clash for Week 10, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.

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NFL DFS Picks: Bengals-Ravens Thursday Night Football Week 10

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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Ravens Thursday Night Football Week 10: Ja’Marr Chase

Chase has 11 targets in each of the last two games, plus he rolled up 10 receptions, 193 yards and two tuddies against Baltimore in Week 5. The Ravens will be focusing on Chase, though that has not been too much of a deterrent in prior meetings. Baltimore did acquire Tre’Davious White from the Los Angeles Rams at the trade deadline, though White’s last Pro Bowl accolades came in the 2020 season. Injuries have hampered his effectiveness, and he has played in just four games this season.

Andre Iosivas has played nearly 90% of the snaps the last two games, though he has seen only three and four targets in these tilts. Trenton Irwin has one look in each of the last two games, but he is in play on DraftKings ($1,200). If Jermaine Burton is benched again tonight, then Irwin will move into consideration on FanDuel ($5,500).

Last week Burton missed Saturday’s walkthrough then apparently showed up to the stadium on Sunday wearing pajamas. That was an interesting wardrobe choice for the third-round selection out of Alabama. Burton struggled with rules and decorum in college as well, fitting in with a long line of Bengals pass-catchers such as Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens.

Burton had 24 of his 49 snaps this season in Week 8 when Higgins was out, along with three of his five targets. Caveat Emptor, though the point-per-dollar upside is intriguing to say the least. Undrafted rookie Kendric Pryor got his first action of the season, playing on 18 offensive snaps with Burton inactive.

Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Even with injuries plaguing several skill-position players throughout the season, Joe Burrow has averaged 249.3 passing yards per game, which are the seventh most, while his 20 touchdowns trail only Baker Mayfield and his four interceptions give him an excellent ratio. Burrow was dealing with a wrist issue earlier this season, though that looks to be in the rearview mirror.

Burrow rolled up 392 yards and five touchdowns in an overtime loss against the Ravens in Week 5. In his last seven meetings with Baltimore, the former LSU Tiger has three games with at least three aerial touchdowns, one game with a rushing and a passing score, and, of course, in 2021 he had a crazy 941 passing yards in two games.

In the breakdown before Week 6 Sunday Night Football, Your Ol’ Pal pointed out that Burrow was nimble in the pocket but not much of a runner, averaging just over 10 yards per game since 2021. Naturally, he had a 47-yard touchdown run in the first four minutes of that game, which matched his best single-game rushing total of 47 yards, set against Pittsburgh in the 2022 opener. Burrow went on to tally 55 yards on four carries, serving Yours Truly a giant slice of humble pie. Of course, in the three subsequent games, he has run for 23 yards on nine totes, but the sting still remains. Ain’t DFS fun?!

Running Back | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Zack Moss (neck) is out for the season, and Chase Brown is coming off a robust game of 27 carries for 120 yards rushing and five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown against Los Vegas, getting every single running back touch in Week 9. Brown led the way with 59 snaps (80%), and Trayveon Williams (seven, 9%) and Kendall Milton (five, 7%) made cameos.

The team traded for Khalil Herbert to bolster the depth, though we know the former Chicago Bear is more of a two-down back. In his three-plus seasons with the Bears, Herbert had 61 targets for 45 receptions, 291 yards and two touchdowns. In his 46 college games across five seasons, he had 33 receptions for 293 yards and a score. Expect him to likely slot in ahead of Williams for any early-down work on the short week, while one of the experienced Bengals is on the field for passing downs.

Brown had at least three targets in each of the last seven games, though his two “best” games were four and five, so his 23 total works out to an average of just over three per tilt. That is nice consistency, to say the least.

Tight End | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

While Mike Gesicki played on only 27 snaps Sunday, he did have five targets for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Basically, he is a giant slot receiver who rarely lines up like a blocking tight end. Former University of Washington stalwart Drew Sample fills that role and is typically an afterthought in the passing game, though he is coming off a season-high four targets. He has only nine on the season, but with nine targets going to the “true” tight ends and six more to Gesicki, the position got a lot of work against the Raiders.

Erick All Jr. is a fourth-round rookie out of Iowa, having spent his first four college campaigns with Michigan. He is seeing more passing work than Sample (22 vs. 9 targets), but they have similar snap counts most weeks. Finally, just to cloud things more, Tanner Hudson is averaging around nine snaps and one target per tilt over the last four matchups, though on Sunday he had three targets on 20 offensive plays, basically representing close to half of his season-long opportunities.

Kicker | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

This has been a down season for Evan McPherson, missing four of his 17 field goal attempts. Of course, had he only missed three, it would boost his success rate from 76.5% to 82.3%, which is right in line with his career average. See how easy it is to manipulate the statistics without context? Three of the four misses were from 50-plus yards, and each was an outdoor attempt. That is just enough to move the needle when compared to those kickers who do most of their work in climate-controlled arenas instead of the AFC North.

Defense | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

The Bengals had five sacks against the Raiders, none against Philadelphia in Week 8 but four against the Browns in Cleveland when both Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson left with injuries. Baltimore has allowed only 13 sacks this season, which is the third fewest in the league, along with a scant six turnovers. Cincinnati is averaging just over one takeaway per game, so this is not a particularly exciting play tonight.

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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Ravens Thursday Night Football Week 10: Lamar Jackson

In the Week 5 overtime game, Jackson had 348 passing yards, four scores and a dozen carries for 55 yards on the ground. He truly is matchup-proof, and DFS gamers are well aware of how to handle primetime single-game contests with the dynamic daredevil.

Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview

Running Back | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

What’s down is up and what’s up is down. Sooooo many prominent receivers have been lost for the season with injury, yet veteran Derrick Henry appears to be rejuvenated and running with abandon. While he will be celebrating his 31st birthday in January, the former Tennessee Titan is leading the league with 116.9 yards per game and have already reached the 1,000-yard milestone.

Henry also leads the league with 13 touchdowns, 11 rushing and two receiving, plus more yards from scrimmage than anyone else in the league. Yes, that includes receivers.

The Bungles have allowed five different running backs to rush for more than 90 yards this season, including Henry, who had 15/92/1 in Week 5. The venerable veteran is only on the field for around half of the offensive plays, with Justice Hill filling in on passing downs and when Henry is getting a break.

Expect Hill to see a handful of carries and a couple of targets tonight, though it would be a surprise for more than 30 or so combined yards. Both of his touchdowns have been in the passing game, where he has out-targeted Henry 28 to 11.

Patrick Ricard is more like an extra lineman at 300 pounds, and he has just three targets this year and 10 over the last two seasons. Of course, he does have two touchdowns, so some gamers will have stars in their eyes. Keep in mind he has only 10 career rushing attempts, with the last carry coming in Week 14 of the 2022 season.

Since converting from a defensive lineman to a full-time fullback in 2019, Ricard has played in 103 games and has 59 targets and 10 rushing attempts for just over half an opportunity per appearance.

Wide Receiver | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Zay Flowers leads the team with 67 targets, ranking fifth overall with 654 receiving yards and eighth with 72.7 per game. Last week he had two touchdowns, ending his scoreless drought at six games. He is a solid fantasy option, though it is hard to compete with Henry and the tight ends for touchdowns.

Jackson spreads the ball around, and Rashod Bateman also has a trio of touchdowns, though he has only 39 targets on the season, while Nelson Agholor has a mere 12 receptions on his 23 targets, albeit with one trip to the end zone.

The team traded for Diontae Johnson, though he did not see any targets on his 17 offensive plays. He has officially been with the team 10 days now, so it would not be a surprise to see him get a handful of targets tonight. It is unlikely he will play more than half the snaps, but he should at least now be familiar with a few different offensive sets.

Bateman will probably pair with Flowers on most of the two-wideout sets, though due to injuries at the tight end position, we could see more one-tight end formations, with Ricard doing more as a blocking H-back. By December, it would not be a shock if Johnson were to move ahead of Bateman. The main loser for playing time will be Agholor, with Tylan Wallace mostly on special teams and punt returns.

Tight End | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Isaiah Likely played only 17 snaps Sunday, and he is out tonight with a hamstring injury. Mark Andrews only played on half the offensive sets, which is right around his typical rate for most games this season. Expect him to be on the field for around two-thirds of the plays, with Charlie Kolar picking up the rest and another 10% to 20% of the snaps in two-tight end formations.

Andrews started slowly, though over the last five games he has four targets on four occasions while also scoring four times. Kolar has turned his nine targets into seven receptions for an impressive 121 yards, covering nearly half the ground each of his counterparts have on less than one-third of the opportunities.

Kolar is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($600) while being worthy for consideration as a differentiation option on the blue site at $6,500. Andrews is still the trusted target for Jackson, but the volume is a far cry from what it was before Flowers arrived on the scene.

Kicker | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Justin Tucker is still the all-time NFL leader with his 89.7% career field goal accuracy, and he leads the league with 34 successful point after touchdown attempts. Though he has missed three of his five attempts from beyond 50 yards, he has made each of the last five Pro Bowl teams and has also been named the first-team All-Pro kicker five times and the second-team three times. The younger generation is catching up, but the 35-year-old is still the leader in the clubhouse.

Defense | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10

Baltimore has at least three sacks in seven of the last eight games and 28 total on the season, though the team has just nine takeaways. Cincinnati has been in the middle of the pack with 20 sacks while ceding one turnover per game.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10: Rankings

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Now let’s jump into the final rankings for this Bengals-Ravens TNF slate.

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Ravens

1. Ja’Marr Chase: The winner on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring.
2. Lamar Jackson: Very much in play for the multiplier slot on both sites.
3. Derrick Henry: It’s good to be the King!
4. Chase Brown: Just enough action in the receiving game to crack the top 5.
5. Mark Andrews: Did not copy over from my file – he is top five on DK, drops below Flowers on FD.
6. Joe Burrow: Looking for pinball numbers again tonight.
7. Zay Flowers: Kid doesn’t wilt under pressure.
8. Mike Gesicki: The production on limited snaps is illin’, to say the least.
9. Justin Tucker: Steady as she goes!
10. Andrei Iosivas: Sadly, there are no fantasy points awarded each time the announcers mention he played at Princeton.
11. Evan McPherson: With a name like this, he has to be top 10, right?!

Secondary Options

1. Rashod Bateman: Still has the edge over Johnson.
2. Justice Hill: Best on DraftKings for full-PPR; would need a fortuitous touchdown; Cincinnati putting lots of points on the board or something befalling Henry in-game to crack double-digit fantasy points. May return kickoffs, depending on who is active.
3. Charlie Kolar: In play for DraftKings cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans) as a discount dandy.
4. Jermaine Burton: Rookie knucklehead.
5. Dionte Johnson: Experienced knucklehead.

Lottery Tickets

1. Baltimore D/ST: Even at home, tough to be excited about this squad.
2. Cincinnati D/ST: Though they are one ranking below the Ravens, the Bengals have 2 fewer fantasy points on their median projection.
3. Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample: Not enough juice to move above the defenses.
4. Trenton Irwin: Replaces Burton above if the rookie is still being punished. Likely to return punts if Jones is inactive.
5. Trayveon Williams: Might get a little more action on the passing downs, but maybe not. Will probably return kickoffs if Jones is inactive.
6. Khalil Herbert: Could get a couple of carries, also risky.
7. Patrick Ricard: Just barely worthy of having his own line.
8. Keaton Mitchell, Kendal Milton, Kendric Pryor, Devontez Walker, Charlie Jones, Tylan Wallace and Chris Collier: Jones returns kicks for Cincy. Wallace returns punts for Baltimore, while Collier handles kickoff duties when healthy and Wallace returns punts for Baltimore.

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