Sunday Night Football has a 49.5 projected total with the Detroit Lions (7-1) heading to Houston to take on the Texans (6-3) as 3.5-point road favorites. This total and close spread adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Lions-Texans showdown for Week 10 Sunday Night Football. We’ll break down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Showdown contests.
NFL DFS Picks: Lions-Texans Sunday Night Football Week 10
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NFL DFS Picks for Lions-Texans Sunday Night Football Week 10: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.88
FanDuel: 14.66
Houston is allowing the third-fewest passing yards this season, with 167.4 per game. On the flipside, teams have scored 19 aerial touchdowns, against the Texans, which is the second most in the league. Still, eight different wideouts have tallied games of 80-plus yards, including Garrett Wilson (nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns) and Davante Adams (7/91/1) last Thursday.
So why Amon-Ra St. Brown? Well, he is usually on the field 90% or more of the time and had at least six targets in all but two games, including a dozen red zone opportunities.
Houston has a phenomenal pass rush, but the Lions can counter that with a strong offensive line and rushing attack. Jameson Williams is also back after serving a two-game suspension for performance-enhancing substances, which will give the Texans another player to worry about deeper downfield. Despite missing two games, Williams is second on the team with 30 targets, though 20 of those occurred in the first two games of the season. He has clearly taken a step forward, and coach Dan Campbell has said he plans on putting him right back into the mix after the layoff. For DFS purposes, Williams is a boom-bust option, though again his return should help open up the field for St. Brown.
Kalif Raymond and Tim Patrick are sharing WR3 duties, but they are on the field together as well. Neither did much in the two games without Williams, so expect them to slide back into being afterthoughts. Of course, those types of players are still under consideration in the single-game contests, though neither is overly exciting. Allen Robinson II had 32 of his 42 offensive plays in the last two weeks, so he or Isaiah Williams is likely to be inactive tonight.
Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Jared Goff currently leads the league with a 74.9% completion rate, and he has been economical with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions on only 26.4 attempts per game. Having a great defense and two stellar running backs has led to pedestrian numbers for the long-time signal-caller, even with the team leading the league at 32.3 points per game.
Drake Maye (243) is the only quarterback to top 220 passing yards against the Texans, but they have not exactly faced tough competition. Houston has handled youngsters like Anthony Richardson (twice) and Caleb Williams while also shutting down Josh Allen (9-for-30, 131 yards and one touchdown). Sam Darnold (4), Jordan Love (3), and Aaron Rodgers (3) joined Maye with three or more passing scores.
Goff may be hard-pressed to become the first quarterback to clear the 250-yard passing threshold, but multiple touchdowns are in play tonight. It is important to note that Goff does not run, and in his last 25 games, he has 49 carries for 37 yards and two touchdowns. Keep in mind that kneeldowns count as rushing for negative yards.
Running Back | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery comprise one of the best backfields in the NFL. Gibbs has the slight edge in total snaps, but Monty has topped his younger counterpart in three games, including the last two. Gibbs has 25 targets, though Montgomery is no slouch himself, with 18 on the season. In the last three games, Montgomery had four, one and three targets, while Gibbs had four, one and two.
The duo is nearly identical in red zone opportunities, with Gibbs (30) trailing Montgomery (31) by one. Even looking at the yardage by game, it is about the same; Montgomery has three games of at least 30 receiving yards, and Gibbs has two. Rushing yards? Yup, it is the same story, with Gibbs posting five games of 70-plus yards and Montgomery having four. Each has seven rushing touchdowns, and Gibbs has the lone running back touchdown reception.
Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have the rushing workload evenly distributed, as each player is within half a carry and 2 yards of a 15.5-carry, 70.5-yard baseline with a 50% chance of scoring. In the receiving game, Gibbs is slated for one more target and 8 more yards than Montgomery.
In summary, you can most definitely play this duo together, and if choosing between them, personal preference is going to be the best guide. Gibbs has a $1,000 premium on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The rest of the running backs have 10 carries and one target on the season, with veteran Craig Reynolds the usual backup and Sione Vaki more of an emergency option. All 10 carries for this duo came in the blowouts in Dallas (47-9) and against Tennessee (52-14).
Tight End | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Sam LaPorta has only 26 targets this season, one fewer than Gibbs. He does have nine over the last two games, but he has regressed dramatically after his epic rookie campaign. Houston has allowed three short receiving touchdowns to the tight end position this season, with no player topping 42 total yards. Brock Wright usually gets one ceremonial target per week, though he has only 11 on the season and three in his last four games.
Kicker | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Quick, name the Detroit kicker. If you guessed Jake Bates, you likely live in the Motor City. Bates started out as a soccer player with Central Arkansas, transferring to Texas State in 2020 after two seasons on the pitch. There he became a kickoff specialist before transferring to Arkansas, only to be stuck as the kickoff specialist once again. Houston signed Bates after the 2023 NFL Draft, though he was released two weeks later. The Michigan Panthers came calling next, so Bates finally got his chance to kick field goals in the UFL. He had a game-winning 64-yarder, which was the longest in league history. He had several other 60-plus conversions, which ultimately earned him a second NFL chance, and he converted (cwidt, a kicking joke).
Bates has only 12 field goal attempts, but he has yet to miss and he also has connected on 30 of 31 (96.8%) point after touchdown attempts.
Defense | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
For as good as the Detroit defense has been, the team is in the middle of the pack with 20 sacks. The Lions are third in the league with 16 takeaways, including 11 picks and five fumble recoveries. Houston is averaging only one turnover per tilt, though the Texans have ceded 31 sacks, which are the second most in the league.
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NFL DFS Picks for Lions-Texans Sunday Night Football Week 10: Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $14,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.18
FanDuel: 17.56
Joe Mixon has been stellar this season, with five games of at least 100 rushing yards and score when he has been healthy. He did sprain his ankle in Week 2 against Chicago, which kept him sidelined until Week 6.
Mixon also has four games with at least 124 combined yards, and he has six rushing and one receiving score as well. Detroit has allowed an opposing ball-carrier to tally 80-plus rushing yards in three of the last four games, though none have reached the century mark.
Dare Ogunbowale has been the main backup, but he shared the field with Cam Akers (since released) and J.J. Taylor when Mixon was sidelined. Dameon Pierce returned to action after his own injury in Week 6, though over the last three games he has seven and four snaps while being inactive on Thursday. Ogunbowale has not done much with his scant opportunities, getting five rushing attempts over the last four games for 17 yards. He has five targets and no receptions in this stretch. You can skip him on FanDuel, and he is barely in consideration on DraftKings ($3,000).
Aside from a lucky touchdown, it is going to take a major blowout or something happening to Mixon for Ogunbowale to see more than a couple of opportunities. Considering how many wideouts are on the shelf or dinged up, this game could become lopsided in the second half if the Detroit offense is able to execute.
Houston Texans Positional Preview
Quarterback | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Last year, C.J. Stroud had a rookie season for the ages. He came out of nowhere to lead the league with 273.9 passing yards per game, just edging out Tua Tagovailoa (272.0) and Goff (269.1). Most impressive were his 23 touchdowns against only five interceptions. He was sacked 38 times in his 15 games, but that was well worth the tradeoff for his production.
Things have been more difficult this season now that the league has had time to prepare for him and with injuries across every key wideout and Mixon. Still, Stroud has held strong with a 91.9 passer rating and a 56.6 QBR, which are not that far off his rookie season figures of 100.8 and 58.3. The 30 sacks are a product of an injury-decimated offense and not entirely the fault of the 23-year-old field general.
Wide Receiver | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Stefon Diggs is out for the rest of the season. Nico Collins hurt his hamstring in Week 5, and while he is eligible to come off the injured reserve, he is a game-time decision. Tank Dell had a terrific debut season, but he has regressed from stellar to above average, and the super sophomore tweaked his back in practice on Friday. He is expected to play, but there is no word on his effectiveness or any limitations.
Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III and Robert Woods have been forced into playing larger roles, and the results have been pedestrian at best. Over the last two games, one with Diggs and one without, Hutchinson had four targets, Metchie had six, and on about half the playing time as his younger peers, Woods also had six looks. If Collins is able to return, that leaves around half a dozen targets to be doled out to this tertiary trio.
Tight End | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Dalton Schultz is still looking for his first touchdown on the year, but he at least has been getting some consistent volume with at least five targets in six of his last seven games. Sadly, he has only one game above 35 yards (52), though he had multiple receptions in all but one appearance.
Brevin Jordan had four targets through the first two weeks, but he is out of the picture. Third-year tight end Teagan Quitoriano has started three of the last four games, but he does not have a target, and in his 20 career games, he has 17 total for nine receptions, 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Rookie Cade Stover also has started three of the last four games, with six targets for three receptions and 34 yards. But wait, how is that possible that these tight ends have each started three of the last four games? Well, dear reader, that is because Schultz has only started two of the last four games, and during his time with Houston he has barely been a starter in half of his appearances.
Kicker | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
Ka’imi Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in the league over the two-plus seasons, making 21 of 24 field goals from 50 or more yards while converting on 91.7% of all attempts during this timeframe. He also has been successful on 63 of 64 (98.4%) extra point efforts.
Defense | Lions-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10
The Texans have 14 sacks over the last four games, along with five interceptions and five fumble recoveries. Goff has been sacked only 18 times this season and has thrown four interceptions.
NFL DFS Picks for Lions-Texans Sunday Night Football Week 10: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Texans
- Joe Mixon: Captain, My Captain.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Barely behind Mixon, particularly on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Coinflip between him and his backfield mate.
- David Montgomery: Ibid.
- C.J. Stroud: More likely to do something with his legs than Goff.
- Jared Goff: Tough matchup on the road, and with a balanced offense, able to work with whatever the defense allows.
- Ka’imi Fairbairn: One of the best in the game, and we need the savings.
- Tank Dell: If fully healthy, he would have ranked just after the Detroit running backs.
- Jameson Williams: Only 10 targets in the four games prior to his suspension.
- Nico Collins: If this were prior to his injury, he would have been above the Detroit running backs.
Secondary Options
- Jake Bates: Tonight is a very top-heavy player pool.
- Sam LaPorta: Two double-digit-fantasy point games.
- Dalton Schultz: No double-digit-fantasy point games.
Lottery Tickets
- Lions D/ST: Let’s hear it for the Motor City Kitties!
- Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III and Robert Woods: Let personal preference and pricing constraints be your guide.
- Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond: Should each get a look or two; beyond that will be determined by game flow. Raymond returns punts.
- Dare Ogunbowale: Meh, but at least should see the field for 15 to 20 offensive snaps.
- Cade Stover and Brock Wright: TE2s who should at least get a target, maybe two.
- J.J. Taylor and Craig Reynolds: Not quite the end of the line, but close.
- Teagan Quitoriano and Shane Zylstra: TE3s who will be on the field; we may hear their name on the broadcast, but targets are still microscopically thin.
- Sione Vaki, Allen Robinson II and Steven Sims Jr.: Sims returns punts and kickoffs for Houston.
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