Monday Night Football has a 48.5 projected total as the Miami Dolphins head to Los Angeles to square off against the Rams as -2.5 road dogs. This close spread and higher total require some strategic choices in the NFL DFS landscape. For this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re diving into the Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football matchup in Week 10, spotlighting essential NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you craft top-tier lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football Week 10
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NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football Week 10: De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $11,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.86
FanDuel: 16.48
De’Von Achane is going to be the key to this matchup. In the four games that Tua Tagovailoa started, Achane saw seven targets in both Weeks 1 and 2, and eight targets in each of the last two games. In the four games with Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley under center, the second-year phenom had just 12 total targets.
Even including the first two games with Tagovailoa, Miami had some of the worst offensive metrics in the league by pretty much any measure. In the two most recent games with the former Alabama field general at the helm, the Dolphins are top 5 or better in most categories.
In six of the eight games this year, Los Angeles has allowed an opposing running back to rush for 70-plus yards on seven different occasions. The Rams are in the bottom third of the league, allowing 135.1 rushing yards per game, with the 4.4 yards per carry being in the middle of the pack.
Achane has averaged 13.5 carries for 70 yards and 7.5 targets for seven receptions and 63.3 yards in the four games with Tagovailoa, accompanied by all five of his touchdowns (two rushing, three receiving). In the games without his quarterback, Achane has averaged 9.8 carries for 35 yards and three targets for 2.3 receptions and 12.3 yards. Play Achane!
Raheem Mostert has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career, though upon joining Miami in 2022, he played in 16 games and had just over 1,100 yards and five touchdowns. Last year was his masterpiece, with nearly 1,200 yards and a whopping 21 touchdowns in 15 appearances.
This year, Mostert has been hurt and he has looked like a 32-year-old undrafted running back and not the league’s leading scorer. Achane has clearly surpassed him, with rookie Jaylen Wright also seeing more time on the field. This now looks like a 60/30/10 split as Mostert tries to keep Wright from taking more of his workload. The veteran is still a redzone threat, seeing nine opportunities over the last three games to fall one shy of Achane, but the days of volume and being the lead option are gone.
Fullback Alec Ingold is usually on the field for 30% of the snaps, and he is an extreme punt option, averaging one carry and nearly one target per game. This season he has nine totes for 13 yards and a score, catching seven of eight targets for 60 yards.
Miami Dolphins Positional Preview
Quarterback | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Since returning from yet another concussion, Tagovailoa has been great on the field for the offense but has left something to be desired for his fantasy backers. In games against Arizona and Buffalo, he has 53 completions on 66 (80.3%) attempts for 232 yards and three touchdowns. All three of Tagovailoa’s interceptions came in the second game of the season, when he was literally knocked out after suffering a concussion in the third quarter.
The Rams have only allowed three opposing quarterbacks to tally more than 240 yards, though five signal-callers have had multi-touchdown games. Tagovailoa is a neutral option for DFS purposes who would get a boost if Tyreek Hill were able to play.
Wide Receiver | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
It is going to be a wait and see situation for Hill, who has been nursing a wrist injury, and rumor is he aggravated it in practice and really will be a game-time decision. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic NFL Live Before Lock Show tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET as Dave “Loughy” Loughran and Matt Gajewski react to the inactives and parse through revised strategies.
Hill is one of the most dynamic players in the league, and he can teleport from anywhere on the field into the end zone. If he is out, Jaylen Waddle should see more volume, though he also will have more defensive attention. Waddle is fourth on the team with 38 targets, getting 17 in the four games with Tagovailoa.
No other Miami wideout has more than seven targets, with Odell Beckham Jr. leading the way at seven, having collected three last week. Malik Washington has averaged nearly 20 offensive plays across the last three games, coinciding with the injury to Braxton Berrios. He and Beckham will likely try to fill the snaps if Hill is out tonight. Dee Eskridge may step between the lines, but if he does, the defense will be waiting on a schemed run or bubble screen going his way.
Tight End | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Jonnu Smith is third on the team with 40 targets, and he has six in each of the last two games with Tagovailoa. Miami is Smith’s third team in three seasons, but the well-traveled journeyman has acclimated quickly. Julian Hill was out last week with a shoulder injury, though he did get three of his 10 targets on the season in Tagovailoa’s return.
Durham Smythe had one target when Hill was out, but he has a paltry eight on the season. If Hill is available, it will be a surprise for Smythe to have more than a 25% snap share, and he barely projects for one target.
Kicker | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Jason Sanders is in his seventh season with Miami, and he is perfectly average. Back in 2020, he did earn All-Pro honors, though he has never been named to a Pro Bowl. Over the last two seasons, he has converted on 9 of 13 (69%) of his kicks from beyond 50 yards, but for his career he is just 25 of 40 (63%). Aside from the random pandemic season, he has been pedestrian from a fantasy perspective. NFL coaches love consistency, but DFS gamers yearn for that fantasy goodness upside.
Defense | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Ten is the name of a seminal Pearl Jam album that set a bar that is darn near impossible to clear. It also is the number of sacks that the Dolphins have through eight games this season. Miami has a scant six takeaways, which is in the bottom 3. Los Angeles has nine turnovers through eight games while allowing just two sacks per tilt.
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NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football Week 10: Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.58
FanDuel: 13.52
In his second game back from his injury layoff, Cooper Kupp ramped up from a 58% snap share to 92%. Puka Nacua being ejected in the second quarter for trying to punch Tyrel Dodson after an interception also helped to boost this.
Nacua tweaked his injured knee in practice prior to the Week 9 game, though he does not currently have an injury designation. The young wideout called his ejection a learning experience, and it should not be a distraction for tonight.
In the season opener, Kupp had a ridiculous 21 targets of the 40 total that went to the wideouts. Last week he had 14 with Nacua missing most of the game. Expect something approaching double digits for the 31-year-old and Nacua, and around seven looks are a realistic floor for each if they are healthy.
Demarcus Robinson is always lurking, with the Stokastic projections assigning him an 11.7% target share and 3.7 opportunities. Last week he had a season-high nine targets, though in the three preceding games he had 11 total as both Kupp and Nacua missed two of those tilts.
Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson are likely to round out the group, though Jordan Whittington may be able to return from his shoulder issue. Each is a deep punt play but best left for those gamers crafting 50 or more lineups.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
The Rams have won three consecutive games, including a nail-biter in overtime last week in Seattle. That is a major turnaround after a 1-4 start that had rumors of Matthew Stafford potentially being traded. The NFC West is tight, and at 4-4, Los Angeles trails San Francisco (5-4) and Arizona (6-4), with Seattle (4-5) half a game behind. Getting a win tonight would be huge as the Rams have a chance to tie the 49ers and gain ground on the Cardinals, who still have a bye week.
Miami has decent surface numbers, but the Dolphins have not had many top-tier quarterbacks going against them. This includes the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson. Last week Josh Allen hit them up for a trio of aerial scores, while Kyler Murray put up 307 yards and two tuddies in Week 8.
Stafford has all of his pass-catchers back, and the 36-year-old is in good form, recording 577 yards and six touchdowns against only a pair of picks over the last two weeks.
Running Back | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
One. Some would say that is the loneliest number that you will ever know. Others will notice it was the number of offensive plays for the Rams last week that did not have Kyren Williams lining up in the backfield. Rookie Blake Corum had a 1-yard carry on that play, giving him 21 carries for 72 yards and a pair of catches for 17 yards on two targets — for the season. Over the last four games, Corum has been on the field for 26 offensive plays, and Ronnie Rivers last stepped between the lines on offense in Week 4.
Williams is not likely to survive this type of workload, but until the wheels actually do fall off, fantasy gamers should enjoy.
Tight End | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
This position is a three-headed monster, with the “leader” Colby Parkinson seeing only four targets over the last three games. He had 13 targets in Week 5, which gave him a wild 32-3 edge over the rest of the tight ends heading into the Week 6 bye. In the three games since then, Davis Allen (0, 0, 3) and Hunter Long (1, 1, 1) each have three of their five targets on the season, while Parkinson has two, two and none. There is a lot of noise and very little signal from this position, so it looks to be a stayaway for anyone playing fewer than 25 lineups.
Kicker | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Rookie Josh Karty was a sixth-round selection out of Stanford, where he was the full-time kicker his last three seasons. He converted on 85% of his field goal attempts, missing only four over his junior and senior seasons. Karty has been solid for a first-year player, though over the last four games, he has just three field goal attempts. He is still 11 of 13 (84.6%) on the season, and as is mentioned every few articles, field goals are a fickle mistress.
Defense | Dolphins-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 10
Los Angeles is in the middle of the pack when it comes to sacks, though the team got to Geno Smith for seven in the overtime victory last Sunday. That gives the Rams five straight games with multiple sacks, plus a pair of three-pick games in this stretch. Tagovailoa does a decent job of avoiding sacks; career-ending hits are a different story.
NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football Week 10: Rankings
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Now, let’s dive into the final rankings for this Dolphins-Rams Monday Night Football slate.
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Rams
- De’Von Achane: Captain, My Captain!
- Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua: Slightest of edges over Williams on DraftKings with the full-PPR.
- Kyren Williams: 718 combined yards through eight games, with eight rushing and two receiving touchdowns; the 88% snap share has to come down at some point, right?
- Tyreek Hill: Tough season, but a lot of that is the result of his and Tagovailoa’s injuries.
- Jaylen Waddle: Solid, though not spectacular. If Hill is out, the volume will likely be offset by the extra defensive attention.
- Matthew Stafford: No rushing upside but has been dialed in and, most importantly, he is healthy with his full complement of pass-catchers back.
- Jonnu Smith: Steal on DraftKings at $4,400 with no other real discount options.
- Tua Tagovailoa: Just slide or go out of bounds, please! The league is much more fun when you are healthy.
- Joshua Karty: Rookie has been solid.
- Jason Sanders: The Steady Eddie of NFL kickers.
Secondary Options
- Raheem Mostert: Needs a touchdown to be relevant.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Homefield edge.
- Colby Parkinson: Salary saver, though shaky volume.
- Demarcus Robinson: Not cheap; perhaps he will be inspired by Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s performance on Sunday.
- Miami D/ST: Meh.
Lottery Tickets
- Blake Corum: Pretty much the only way he gets there is something befalling Williams tonight. Also returns kickoffs.
- Davis Allen: Your $200 minimum baller on DraftKings; buyer beware.
- Odell Beckham Jr.: Just ripe for a “Remember Me?!” performance, particularly if Hill is out.
- Jaylen Wright: Not quite his time.
- Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington and Xavier Smith: If all are available, Johnson or Whittington may not be active. Smith returns punts and occasionally kickoffs; he could be an emergency offensive option in a desperate situation, making this a crowded crew.
- Julian Hill, Durham Smyth and Hunter Long: Not particularly enticing when looking at everyone listed above.
- Alec Ingold: Last player worthy of their own line.
- Ronnie Rivers, Ronnie Bass, River Cracraft, World of Warcraft, Malik Washington and Dee Eskridge: The latter two return kickoffs and punts for Miami.
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