Week 4 of the NFL season marks the last week without teams on byes, and as such, we’ve got a 12-game main slate to tackle on DraftKings. Today, we’ll walk through the top NFL DFS Picks for Week 4. As we’ve got more data points, it’s more important than ever to zig while the competition zags. We’ll tackle how to best do that on this jam-packed Week 4 slate.
In NFL DFS tournaments, standing out often hinges on your ability to differentiate your lineup. To give yourself an edge, it’s crucial to include unique, contrarian picks. Subscribe today to access our premium resources, including the Lineup Generator, our NFL DFS Sims and the best NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections out there.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: Zig When the Field Zags
In 2024, if you’re just using NFL DFS projections to make your picks, you’re losing out on more than half the game. DFS is a peer-to-peer game, and what constitutes a good lineup often comes down to what the field is doing.
Our NFL DFS ownership projections are part of the solution, but to get the most out of them, you need our NFL Core Package to access our NFL DFS Sims, which allow you to see the best lineups over thousands of simulated versions of the slate.
Check out our breakdown of our NFL subscriptions for pricing and a detailed overview of the tools and data available at each.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: Quarterbacks
Cash: Jayden Daniels (WAS): $6,500
Unlike in Week 3 when there wasn’t a consensus cash game quarterback, Week 4 offers much more clarity. As of this writing, Commanders rookie phenom Jayden Daniels is projected to be 20.3% owned on DraftKings, the highest number we’ve seen on any quarterback so far this season. Daniels’ opponent on Sunday, Kyler Murray, is the only other quarterback projected to be even double-digit owned, and while Murray makes a lot of sense as a pivot off Daniels in GPPs, Daniels is the clear quarterback to target in cash games.
Daniels comes into Sunday’s action averaging 23.2 DraftKings points per game, and, after torching the Bengals on Monday Night Football, it’s no surprise the field is gravitating toward him at a relatively low price on DraftKings. Daniels was sensational on Monday night, completing 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also adding in 12 rushes for 39 yards and another score in the Commanders’ 38-33 statement win over the Bengals. Daniels finds himself in another good spot on Sunday, and if you’re fading him, do it in GPP’s.
GPP: Jalen Hurts (PHI): $7,200
The most expensive quarterback on the slate, Jalen Hurts, isn’t getting a ton of love on DraftKings. Though he’s been more of a solid piece than a spectacular one this season, Hurts still comes into Week 4 averaging 20.3 DraftKings points on per game, and his upside on any given Sunday is as high as any other signal-caller in the NFL. Matched up with a Buccaneers defense that just gave up 26 points to Bo Nix and the Broncos, there’s a lot to like about the Eagles offense on Sunday, even without DeVonta Smith and potentially A.J. Brown.
As of this writing, Hurts is projected to be optimal 7.1% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 5.8% of lineups expected to roster him, Hurts stands out as one of the best leverage plays on the entire slate. This checks out when using Stokastic’s Pre-Contest Simulator, as he is showing up in 7.4% of lineups. Though Hurts’ floor is probably a little bit lower than normal if Brown misses this game, his ceiling remains the same, and he is just falling through the cracks a bit too much on DraftKings.
Other quarterbacks to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Andy Dalton
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: Running Backs
Cash: Jordan Mason (SF): $6,700
Rinse and repeat from Week 3. Mason is still only $6,700 and is the clear first player to plug into cash game lineups next to Daniels. With Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel still out, Mason is once again expected to be far and away the highest-owned player on the slate. Though Mason was just mediocre in the 49ers stunning 24-27 loss to the Rams in Week 3, expect to see a ton of him this week as San Francisco is back at home hosting the Patriots as a 10.5-point favorite.
As of this writing, Mason is projected to be optimal an insane 33% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, per the NFL DFS Sims. Though he is projected to be over-owned with 37.1% of lineups expected to roster him, that number should be 100% in cash games. If you’re not playing Mason in cash games agin this week, you’re doing it wrong. It’s that simple.
GPP: Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS): $6,100
With the field flocking to Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, it makes sense that his running mate in the Washington backfield isn’t getting as much love. Even with fellow Commanders running back Austin Ekeler out with a concussion, Brian Robinson is only projected to be 9.1% owned on DraftKings. It wouldn’t be shocking to see that number creep up as we get closer to lock, but it’s clear that there are going to be plenty of running backs higher owned than Robinson.
Robinson comes into Week 4 averaging 15.4 DraftKings points per game, and he’s established himself as the clear goal line back in Washington’s backfield. Not known as a pass catcher, Robinson has also hauled in five passes through three weeks, and it’s logical to expect him to see even more targets with Ekeler out.
Though newly promoted backup running back Jeremy McNichols could step in and vulture some touches, he’s more of a GPP long shot with Robinson expected to dominate most of the touches in Washington’s backfield. When running Stokastic’s Pre-Contest Simulator, Robinson is showing up in 13.9% of lineups, considerably higher than his 9.1% projected ownership on DraftKings.
Other running backs to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Isaac Guerendo (large field), Jeremy McNichols (large field)
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: Wide Receivers
Cash: Diontae Johnson (CAR): $5,600
Projected to be the second-highest-owned player on the slate behind only Mason, Diontae Johnson is another cash game lock at $5,600. With Andy Dalton under center last week, Johnson had his best game in what seems like years, and there is much to like about him again in Week 4 against a Bengals team that just got torched by the Commanders. Johnson has been an NFL DFS cash game staple for years, and with Adam Thielen out for the Panthers this week, he is once again in that role as Dalton’s clear number one option.
As of this writing, Johnson has an eye-raising 22.26% chance of being optimal on Sunday. As with Mason (in that Johnson is currently projected to be over-owned with 29.6% of lineups expected to roster him), his high ownership number should be 100% in cash games. With Dalton throwing him the rock and Thielen out, Johnson is severely underpriced at $5,600, and there’s no reason to get away from him in those contests.
Other wide receivers to consider for NFL Cash Games: Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Jauan Jennings
GPP: Marvin Harrison Jr. (AZ): $7,500
Going back to Washington-Arizona in what looks like the highest upside game on the slate, newly minted Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is the top tournament wideout on the board. Through three weeks of his rookie campaign, Harrison is averaging 16.9 DraftKings points per game — and that’s despite starting the season with a dud in Buffalo.
Harrison has started to establish himself as Kyler Murray’s top target, and his big play ability is already right there with the top receivers in football. With the field so heavily focused on the Washington side of this game, however, Harrison is flying a bit too far under the radar.
Harrison is currently projected to be optimal 10.6% of the time this slate happens on DraftKings. With only 9.4% of lineups expected to roster him, Harrison isn’t getting the ownership he deserves, and he’s easy to get over the field on in tournaments. Stokastic’s Pre-Contest Simulator confirms these sentiments as Harrison is currently showing up in 12.5% of simulated lineups.
Other wide receivers to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, Tre Tucker, Parris Campbell, D
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: Tight Ends
Cash: Dallas Goedert (PHI): $5,100
After years of watching Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Travis Kelce and plenty of other tight ends put up gaudy stats, those days are seemingly gone. The position as a whole this year has been extremely disappointing, with only a handful of standout performances. One of those performances came from Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert last week, and he looks like the top overall tight end play on the board.
Though he’s normally the Eagles’ clear third option behind both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert was targeted early and often last week with Brown off the field. While Brown might return on Sunday, Smith is out, leaving Goedert to be at worst Hurts’ number two option again. If Brown sits as well, Goedert will get steamed, with the possibility of becoming one of the highest-owned players on the board.
GPP TE Options: Travis Kelce, Elijah Higgins, Jordan Akins
NFL DFS Picks for Week 4: D/ST
Cash DST Options: Raiders, Texans, Rams
GPP DST Options: Jets, Browns, Falcons
For more NFL DFS Picks and analysis, tune into Live Before Lock every Sunday!
