With two weeks of the NFL season already in the rear-view mirror, we enter Week 3 with more question marks than answers. Multiple “contenders” have struggled out of the gates, and Week 3 should serve as a litmus test for multiple teams across the league. Today, we’ll walk through the top NFL DFS Picks for Week 3, continuing to emphasize overreactions to the early part of the season both in terms of pricing and ownership — and how you should navigate them.
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NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: Press the Panic Button?
In 2024, if you’re just using NFL DFS projections to make your picks, you’re losing out on more than half the game. DFS is a peer-to-peer game, and what constitutes a good lineup often comes down to what the field is doing.
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NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: Quarterbacks
Cash: Jalen Hurts (PHI): $7,300
Unlike most weeks where the cash game quarterback is clear, Week 3 lacks that element of clarity. As of this writing, no quarterback is projected to be double-digit owned on DraftKings. While there will likely be a couple of signal callers who end up higher owned than projected, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith and Kyler Murray all look like reasonable cash-game options. That said, Hurts’ combination of floor and ceiling in a matchup with the suddenly high-powered Saints has him as my preferred quarterback for cash games.
Hurts comes into Week 3 averaging 22.1 DraftKings points per game, and while he has struggled when throwing from the pocket, his elite rushing upside makes him a strong cash-game building block on pretty much any slate he’s on. The Eagles are currently projected to be the top overall stack 8.2% of the time this slate plays out, making Hurts’ 8.8% ownership projection look pretty spot on. While there are other lower-owned spots I like targeting more in tournaments, Hurts’ floor is hard to ignore in cash games.
GPP: Dak Prescott (DET): $6,000
Truth be told, Dak Prescott hasn’t been all that impressive to start the season. After he wasn’t needed much in a dominant Week 1 victory over the Browns, Prescott struggled to keep pace against Derek Carr and the Saints in Week 2. Prescott comes into Week 3 averaging only 13.2 DraftKings points per game. His matchup with the Ravens has the field uninterested in getting to him in Week 3.
As the famed Lee Corso would say, however, “Not so fast, my friends.” Dallas currently sits second overall in Stokastic’s NFL DFS Top Stacks Tool, while Prescott himself has a 5.6% chance of being optimal on Sunday. With only 5.0% of lineups expected to roster him, Prescott looks like one of the best differentiators on board. While I never love using quarterbacks against the Ravens, Gardner Mindshew II just led the Raiders to a win in Baltimore, and Prescott always has slate-breaking upside with CeeDee Lamb as his running mate.Â
Other quarterbacks to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Jared Goff, Gardner Mindshew II, Andy Dalton
NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: Running Backs
Cash: Jordan Mason (SF): $6,200
The first player to plug into cash game lineups, San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason is still somehow only $6,200 on DraftKings. With Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out, Mason is expected to be far and away the highest-owned player on the slate. If you’re looking to fade him, do it at your own peril in GPPs.
As of this writing, Mason is projected to be optimal an insane 24.98% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, per the NFL DFS Sims. Though he is projected to be over-owned with 37.1% of lineups expected to roster him, that number should be 100% in cash games. If you’re not playing Mason in cash games this week, you’re doing it wrong. Simple as that.
GPP: D’Andre Swift (CHI): $5,600
Per Stokastic’s Tools, Bears running back D’Andre Swift is by far the highest-graded leverage play on the entire slate. Coming in at a discounted $5,600 price tag, Swift has been more of a solid piece than a spectacular one to start his Bears career. With rookie quarterback Caleb Williams struggling to extend drives, Swift is only averaging 6.6 DraftKings points per game through the first two weeks. Even at a discounted price tag, that kind of production won’t cut it, but there’s plenty to be hopeful about for Swift in the near future.
While there’s no doubt that Swift has been relatively grounded through his first two Chicago starts, he’s dominated the touches in Chicago’s backfield, with 28 through two weeks. No other Bears running back saw more than two carries or receptions this past Sunday, with Swift clearly emerging as “the guy” in Chicago’s backfield.
Matched up with a Colts defense that has given up a combined 310 rushing yards to Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs through the first two weeks, it’s safe to say that Swift finds himself in a really good spot on Sunday. The field isn’t seeing it that way, however, as only 5.9% of lineups are projected to roster him on DraftKings. Compare that to his 11.34% chance of being optimal, and it makes sense why Swift looks so good from a leverage perspective.Â
Other running backs to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zamir White, Cam Akers
NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: Wide Receivers
Cash: Brandon Aiyuk (SF): $6,200
Projected to be the second-highest owned player on the slate, behind only his teammate Mason, Brandon Aiyuk is a cash game lock at $7,500. With McCaffery, Samuel and Kittle all expected to be out, Aiyuk has a 19.9% chance of being optimal on Sunday. Matched up with a Rams defense that just got carved up by Marvin Harrison Jr. and company, Aiyuk’s optimality percentage checks out.
While it would be foolish to expect this 49ers offense to look as lethal without McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle, this is still a Kyle Shanahan-led team with Brock Purdy under center and Trent Williams leading the offensive line. Aiyuk has shown in the past that he’s more than capable of being San Francisco’s number one option, and he’s a lock in cash games at an extremely cheap $6,200 price tag.
GPP: Adam Thielen (CAR): $5,000
Carolina at Las Vegas is one of my favorite games to target in large-field tournaments, and I’m all in on Panthers wideout Adam Thielen. With Bryce Young behind center, Thielen has unsurprisingly struggled so far this season. The longtime Minnesota Viking is only averaging 6.0 DraftKings points through the Panthers’ first two games. Put in Andy Dalton, however, and Thielen’s prospects immediately start to look better.Â
Say whatever you want about Dalton, but he’s clearly an upgrade over what Young was bringing to the table right now. In his one and only start last season, Dalton completed 34-of-58 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns while throwing no interceptions. Of those throws, 11 went to Thielen, who converted those 11 targets into 11 receptions for 145 yards and one touchdown.
While it’s unlikely that Thielen matches that kind of production on Sunday, he’s currently projected to be optimal 6.24% of the time this slate happens on DraftKings. There’s a lot to like about Thielen in tournaments, especially his 3.8% projected ownership.Â
Other wide receivers to consider for NFL DFS Cash Games & GPPs: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill (GPP), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams (GPP), DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Tank Dell, Diontae Johnson, Demarcus Robinson (Cash), Jordan Whittington (GPP)
NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: Tight Ends
Cash & GPP: Brock Bowers (LV): $5,400
I’ve been on the Brock Bowers train since Week 1, and the rookie from Georgia already looks like one of the most seasoned tight ends in the league. Bowers comes into Week 3 averaging 15.3 DraftKings points per game, and his 15 catches and 154 receiving yards are both NFL records for a rookie tight end. Now matched up with the Panthers in Week 3, Bowers looks like one of the best plays at any position on the entire slate. Â
Bowers currently projects to be optimal 9.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. His 9.4% projected ownership is right in line with his optimal percentage, making him an already strong play in all formats. Considering I like this game a lot from a tournament perspective, Bowers looks even better in my eyes, with massive upside if he reaches paydirt.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 3: D/ST
Cash DST Options: Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins
GPP DST Options: Seahawks, Packers, Giants
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