Believe it or not, Week 16 of the NFL season is upon us. In this article, we’ll break down the top NFL DFS picks for Week 16, including the best stacking options, GPP plays and cash game values to help you dominate your lineups — and we’re using Stokastic’s industry-leading tools like the Lineup Generator, NFL DFS Sims, and the best NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections out there.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 16: Best Cash & GPP Picks This Week
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NFL DFS Picks for Week 16: Quarterback
Cash Game Pick: Anthony Richardson (IND): $5,400
Unlike some previous weeks where the cash game quarterback was unclear, Week 16 offers much more clarity. As of this writing, Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson is projected to be by far the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings, and in cash games it makes sense to just plug him in and move on.
Though Richardson has been inconsistent in his second season in Indianapolis, he finds himself in a dream spot this Sunday, and he’s way too cheap on DraftKings at $5,400. Richardson’s ceiling on a game-to-game basis is as high as any quarterback in football, and matched up with a Titans defense that opposing signal-callers have destroyed this season, he has slate-breaking upside at a very affordable price tag. Simply put, if you want to fade Richardson, do it in GPPs.
GPP Pick: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): $4,500
It’s rare for an NFL team in the playoff picture to make a quarterback change this late into the season, but Falcons head coach Raheem Morris had seen enough of Kirk Cousins to warrant benching him. In his place, rookie Michael Penix Jr. is getting thrown immediately into the fire, as the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft will be making his first career start at home against the Giants.
Though trusting a rookie quarterback making his first career start in Week 16 is a risky proposition, Penix has pedigree and, like Richardson, couldn’t ask to be in a better spot than matched up with a sad Giants defense at home in a dome. Regardless of what you think about Penix, his $4,500 price tag on DraftKings opens up paths to roster construction that otherwise simply wouldn’t be available.
While I expect the steam on Penix to rise as Sunday approaches, he’s currently projected to be in only 9.0% of lineups on DraftKings. Stokastic’s Sims are much higher on Penix than the field, as he’s showing up in 24.0% of the top 300 lineups sorted by ROI.
Other NFL DFS GPP Quarterback Picks: Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Mason Rudolph
NFL DFS Week 16 Picks: Running Back
Cash Game Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET): $7,500
With David Montgomery lost for the season, Jahmyr Gibbs is likely to take on a bell cow role in Detroit’s backfield, and he’s the chalk du jour in Week 16 on DraftKings. With ownership looking to be a bit more spread out than usual this week, Gibbs is projected to be by far the highest-owned player on the slate at 35.9%. Though there are cases to be made to being underweight on Gibbs in tournaments, he’s likely to be 60% to 70% owned in cash games, and fading that is more often than not a fool’s errand. Similar to Richardson, if fading Gibbs is on your radar, do it in GPPs.
GPP Pick: Jerome Ford (CLE): $5,600
As a lifelong Browns fan, seeing Nick Chubb struggle to come back from major knee surgery hurt my soul. When one door closes, another one opens, however, and Chubb’s most recent injury has paved the way for Jerome Ford to take on a much larger role in Cleveland’s backfield.
Ford has been more solid than spectacular through three seasons in Cleveland; even calling Ford “solid” might be a stretch, but he’s shown big-play upside, and he’s coming off one of his most productive games as a pro. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over for Jameis Winston as the Browns starting quarterback, it’s likely Cleveland’s game plan initially will lean on Ford in both the running and passing games.
As of this writing, people are sleeping on Ford on DraftKings, as he’s only projected to be in 9.2% of lineups this Sunday. Stokastic’s Sims would consider that number a massive mistake, as Ford is currently showing up in 48.0% of the top 300 lineups, behind only Trey McBride for the most exposure in the Sims.
Other NFL DFS Cash Game & GPP Running Back Picks: Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, Alexander Mattison, Patrick Taylor Jr.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 16: Wide Receiver
Cash & GPP Pick: Puka Nacua (LAR): $8,000
With underpriced players standing out at quarterback and running back, it makes sense that Puka Nacua is showing up as the top wide receiver in both cash games and GPPs at $8,000 on DraftKings. Though Nacua is in rare air with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson as the only wideouts $8,000 or above on DraftKings, Nacua has proven to be worth every bit of his tag, and there’s a lot to like about him this Week in a matchup with a suddenly vulnerable Jets secondary.
No wide receiver is currently projected to be over 20% owned on DraftKings, with a whopping 14 receivers projected to be somewhere between 10% and 19% owned. Nacua is projected to be one of the highest-owned wideouts on the board at 16.9%, and he’s the top spend-up option in cash games.
Nacua is also the top wide receiver to target in tournaments, as he’s currently popping in 40.7% of the top 300 lineups in Stokastic’s Sims. Though I expect Nacua’s ownership to rise as Sunday approaches, he’s unlikely to be as highly owned as he should be.
Other NFL DFS Cash Game & GPP Wide Receiver Picks: Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jauan Jennings, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Jalen Coker
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NFL DFS Week 16 Picks: Tight End
Cash & Pick: Trey McBride (ARI): $6,200
Perhaps the easiest player to lock in on the entire slate, McBride is a core piece in both cash game and tournament lineups this Sunday. For cash game purposes, McBride is projected to be head and shoulders the highest-owned player at his position, as he’s currently projected to be 24.7% owned on DraftKings. Despite not recording any touchdown receptions this season, McBride is still averaging the third-most fantasy points of any tight end on the board, and he is in a fantastic spot in Week 16 against a Carolina defense that has been putrid against tight ends all season.
As much of a lock as McBride looks to be in cash games, he might even be a better play in tournaments: Stokastic’s Sims have him in a massive 55.0% of the top 300 lineups. McBride’s floor/ceiling combination might be the best of any player at any position on the slate, and with Kyler Murray emphasizing that he wants to get McBride in the end zone, he can break a slate at only $6,200.
Other NFL DFS Cash Game & GPP Tight End Picks: George Kittle, Brenton Strange, Jeremy Ruckert
NFL DFS Picks for Week 16: DST
Cash & GPP DST Options: Colts, Seahawks, Browns
