Wild Card Saturday Night Football has the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), heading to Baltimore for an AFC North grudge match against the Ravens (12-5). This game has a 45.5 total, with the Ravens favored by over a touchdown at home. Let’s look at all the vantage points and find some winning NFL DFS lineups. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal rosters for Saturday Night Football.
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NFL DFS Picks: Steelers-Ravens Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
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NFL DFS Picks for Cardinals-Rams Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 13.83
FanDuel: 13.68
The Pittsburgh fortunes are tied entirely to Russell Wilson tonight. He is going to simply have to do at least two of the three following tasks: Connect downfield on “big” plays of 16-plus yards, keep the chains moving on third downs and avoid sacks and turnovers. It is really the first two and that is something that the Steelers have not been able to do over the last month, dropping four-consecutive games.
Going from 10-3 to 10-7 in the blink of an eye is not great, though to be fair losses in Philadelphia and Baltimore, then home games against Kansas City and Cincinnati, were really games again four playoff teams. Yes, the Bungles didn’t make the playoffs, but they did come through in a must win situation on the road.
In favor of Wilson is that George Pickens missed the first two of these four aforementioned games. Unfortunately, he and Wilson were not on the same page last weekend, but this duo has had a week to iron things out. Vita Vea and the Ravens have shut down opposing rushing attacks all season, with Saquon Barkley (23/107/1), Najee Harris (18/63/0) and Nick Chubb (16/52/0) the three opposing running backs to clear 50 rushing yards this season. If Wilson cannot make the defense respect any part of the passing game, the home team is going to have a cakewalk into the next round of the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Harris is likely to get the early down work as long as the game is close, with Jaylen Warren seeing the down and distance plays. Each back is capable in all facets of the game, though it really is a coinflip and up to the whims of coach Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, as to who is going to be getting the ball. Since the Week 9 bye, Warren has been on the field for 18 more offensive plays than Harris, though that gap turns into a chasm over the last four games, with Harris trailing by 31 snaps.
In the last month, Harris has eight red zone chances, including five last weekend, while Warren has seven, though none in the most recent game. The duo each has 48 targets on the season, with Warren of course missing two tilts and it has been close over the last month with Warren (14) just ahead of Harris (11).
FanDuel is pushing gamers towards Warren, with a $2,500 discount, while DraftKings has just $200 separating this duo. Cordarrelle Patterson is the only other running back to step between the lines on offense since the Week 9 respite, with eight snaps last week, accompanied by one, three and six in the preceding trio of tilts.
Wide Receiver | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Even after missing three games, Pickens still leads the team by 25 targets, including seven and six in his two games since returning from a hamstring issue. He was on the field for just over 90% of the snaps in these games, with Calvin Austin III, Van Jefferson and Mike Williams collecting the majority of the remaining appearances. Scotty Miller (zero and 10 plays) and Ben Skowronek (five and zero) were the other wideouts on the field in this pair of performances.
Austin went from three consecutive games with five targets, to just one look last week while Van Jefferson had 10% of his season total in Week 18 (also known as four targets, so this is just a fun depiction of lies, damn lies and statistics). Austin is going to work out of the slot, but he is also capable of running deep seam routes, though if Wilson is under pressure and the ground game gets shut down, the short routes will be very crowded by the defense as well.
Jefferson and Williams are working the middle of the field, but the former is short on talent and the latter sadly appears to be washed up after a series of injuries over the last few seasons and this being his third team in a calendar year.
Tight Ends | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Pat Freiermuth is one bright spot, with 19 of his 78 (24%) of his targets coming in the last two games. Of course, similarly to Austin, the short zone is likely to be packed with Ravens, though at least Freiermuth has a connection with Wilson, who has targeted this position at every stop in his career. Darnell Washington is a massive human being, though sadly, he has had only one offensive opportunity in the last month, which technically is half of what MyCole Pruitt and Connor Heyward have seen.
Kicker | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Chris Boswell was named to his second Pro Bowl team this year, while also earning his first All-Pro nomination. He led the league with 41 made field goal attempts, missing only three for his second-consecutive season with a 93% success rate on field goal attempts, which is also a threshold he has met in four of his 10 seasons in the league. Kicking in the AFC North is always tough, between the late-season weather and every stadium being outdoors. However, Acrisure Stadium (formerly Heinz Field) is almost universally acknowledged as one of the most tricky stadiums in the league.
Defense | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
The Steelers have been solid this season with 40 sacks this season, with 33 turnovers, which has Pittsburgh tied atop the leaderboard with Minnesota. Baltimore has a scant 11 turnovers on the year, which is the third fewest in the league. Counting on Blitzburgh to do much in the way of DFS glory, outside of a scoop-and-score or pick-six is tricky, with the Ravens giving up only 24 turnovers, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league.
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NFL DFS Picks for Steelers-Ravens Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $17,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.79
FanDuel: 21.61
Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in history to throw for at least 4,000 yards, while rushing for 900 in a single season. He has only one game below 20 fantasy points, with eight of 25 or more.
Pittsburgh is the is one of two teams to hold him below 20 fantasy points, and he managed 21.48 in the second meeting, which gives the Steelers two of his three lowest fantasy performances this season.
After beginning the season 0-2, Jackson rallied his compatriots to a 12-3 record, losing games on the road against divisional rivals in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, with the other loss to Philadelphia. Forget all the pundits prattling away on how Jackson struggles in the postseason, this is a massively different team with the revamp running back room. Do listen to the truthful statements that no AFC North team is afraid of any other, but then keep in mind that this matchup has the Ravens favored by over a touchdown.
Like most single-game slates, Jackson is the main priority and he is in terrific form. The real question is how many lineups will you make without him.
Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Derrick Henry is in, while J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are now in Los Angeles. The former Tennessee Titan averaged 113 rushing yards per game, trailing only Barkley (125.3) and his 1,921 yards were just shy of his second 2,000 season. King Henry led the league with 16 rushing touchdowns, the third time he has had that honor and he also had two of his five career receiving scores, courtesy of Jackson.
In Week 11, Pittsburgh held the future Hall of Famer to 11 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, though in DeHember he extracted payback with 24 carries for 162 yards, while converting both of his targets for 27 more yards. Expect the Ravens to lean on Henry in the cold, daring the Steelers to crowd the box.
Justice Hill (concussion/illness) is expected to play tonight and he has been solid this season with 51 targets, including a trio of tuddies, with a 4.9 yards per carry average on 47 rushing attempts. He should see around five combined touches, though his red zone opportunities will be overshadowed by Jackson and Henry.
Keaton Mitchell will probably be on the field for a couple of plays, though his real path to relevance would be in the fourth quarter of a lopsided affair. Patrick Ricard earned first-team All-Pro honors, while making his fifth Pro Bowl team. He saw five targets, catching three for 22 yards and a touchdown, though the last carry for the 300 pound fullback was in Week 14 of the 2022 season, or 39 games ago for those wondering.
Wide Receiver and Tight End | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Zay Flowers has been ruled out, which means the Ravens are likely to go with more two-tight end sets. That is one of their preferred formations anyway and Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are two of the three best pass-catchers on the team. When Flowers went down with his injury last week, it was Tylan Wallace who served as the WR2, with rookie Devontez Walker seeing the rest of the snaps.
This pushes Rashod Bateman back into the nominal WR1 role, though the fourth-year wideout has never been able to provide much consistency. This has been his best season and to his credit, he does have nine touchdowns, though the 72 targets, 45 receptions and 756 yards are pretty average at best.
Tonight the Stokastic projections have Andrews for 6.1 targets, Bateman for 5.8, Likely for 4.1, with veteran Nelson Agholor (if active) getting 3.2, Wallace 2.9 and Walker earmarked for 1.7 opportunities. Hill is right between Agholor and Wallace, with 3.1 projected opportunities.
Kicker | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Justin Tucker has has his work cut out for him going forward. The 35-year-old is still the NFL’s all-time leader with an 89.1% success rate on his field goals, though his 73.3% conversion rate this season is barely replacement level. He is coming off eight consecutive years of either being an All-Pro, making the Pro Bowl or both. Last year he attempted only five field goals from 50-plus yards, missing four of them and this season he was 6-of-11 (55%). To be fair, 40-to-49 yards has always been his sweet-spot, with his NFL-record 66 yarder in 2021 his only conversion of 60-plus yards, outside of his second NFL campaign back in 2013. He is still in play of course, just no longer invincible.
Defense | Steelers-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round
Baltimore is second in the league with 54 sacks, with Pittsburgh landing in the bottom-third of the league, ceding 2.9 per tilt. The Steelers have allowed a dozen in the last three games, including three to the Ravens in Week 15. Pittsburgh averaged only one turnover per tilt, with Baltimore collecting takeaways at an identical rate.
NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Wild Card Round: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Steelers-Ravens
- Lamar Jackson: Captain, My Captain!
- Derrick Henry: Will be running into the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense, but it doesn’t matter. Keep in mind, he needs at least 100 yards and a touchdown to even come close to breaking even as the most expensive player on DraftKings and coming in just $500 below Jackson on FanDuel.
- Mark Andrews: The $6,400 cap hit on DraftKings is a steal and his $11,000 salary on FanDuel is favorable.
- George Pickens: Will be the focus of the secondary.
- Russell Wilson: For Super Wild Card Weekend, he is the 23rd highest projected player on FanDuel, sliding to 29th on DraftKings.
- Chris Boswell: Tremendous kicker, who would be well-known if he were plying his trade indoors or one of the more temperate NFL outdoor venues.
- Isaiah Likely: Easily could flip spots with Andrews for the $2,400 savings on DraftKings and the $2,500 savings on FanDuel is appealing as well. Each player projects to be similarly represented in the large-field tournaments, with Andrews being slightly more popular. Savvy gamers, you know what to do.
- Pat Freiermuth: Not much competition from his fellow tight ends, one of the better fantasy point per dollar options on DraftKings.
- Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren: Depending on how you envision the game proceeding, this duo can be rostered together, separately or skipped entirely. Close to one-third of DraftKings lineup and nearly half of FanDuel lineups will not have either player. That makes for some fun lineup construction scenarios.
- Baltimore D/ST: This unit is firing on all cylinders, with an appropriate premium.
Secondary Options
- Justin Tucker: Damn, it really has been a tough season for the All-Timer.
- Justice Hill: Viable option for “cash” games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) on DraftKings ($3,400) with the full-PPR scoring.
- Calvin Austin III: Meh, tough matchup on a skidding offense. Also returns punts.
- Nelson Agholor and Tylan Wallace: If Agholor is inactive, Wallace moves ahead of Tucker for the FanDuel rankings and above the Baltimore D/ST on DraftKings.
- Devontez Walker: Minimum $200 baller on DraftKings, only in play on FanDuel if Agholor is inactive. Expect a zero, be happy with a target and it is party time if he actually catches a ball.
Lottery Tickets
- Pittsburgh D/ST: Still solid unit, however, on the road against a team that allows very few sacks and turnovers makes for a long row to hoe.
- Mike Williams and Van Jefferson: Close your eyes and pick one.
- Cordarelle Patterson: Meh, but capable of giving his naysayers regrets. Share kickoff return duties with Warren.
- Keaton Mitchell: Needs mop-up duty.
- Darnelle Washington: A Matt Gajewski favorite, raw talent, but nearly nonexistent opportunities. Last player worthy of his own line.
- Patrick Ricard, Connor Heyward, Charlie Kolar and MyCole Pruitt: Will be on the field, good luck figuring how their collective 2.7 offensive opportunities will be distributed.
- Ben Skowronek, Anthony Miller, Steven Sims and Rasheen Ali: If active, Sims may return punts and Ali kickoffs for Baltimore.
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