NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Lions: Divisional Round Saturday Night Football

Divisional Round Saturday Night Football has the surging Washington Commanders, heading to Detroit for battle against the Lions, with the winner moving one step closer to the Super Bowl. This game has a 55.5 total, with the Lions nearly double-digit home favorites. Let’s look at all the vantage points and find some winning NFL DFS lineups. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal rosters for Saturday Night Football.

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NFL DFS Picks: Commanders-Lions Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Lions Saturday Night Football Divisional Round: Jayden Daniels

Over the last seven tilts of the season, Daniels had multiple passing touchdowns six times, though six of his interceptions did occur in this stretch. Considering that Washington won six of these games, there were not a lot of complaints from anyone. On Sunday, Daniels guided his team to Washington’s first playoff victory in 19 years and put even more distance between new owner Josh Harris and the Daniel Snyder regime (1999-2023), which had a dreadful 2-6 playoff record.

The Detroit defense has been thinned out by injuries, missing around half of the regulars on the two-deep chart. Four of the last six opposing signal-callers had multi-touchdown games against this squad, so it will be interesting to see how head coach Dan Campbell and company have prepared over the first-round bye. The Lions got after Sam Darnold, and laid out a blueprint for the Los Angeles Rams to follow during Wild Card Weekend. Daniels is far more dynamic than Darnold, though he does not have the same dynamic set of pass-catchers.

Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

One of the keys to victory last week for Washington, was controlling the clock. The Commanders were able to run 69 offensive plays, to just 44 for Tampa Bay, though it still came down to a last second field goal off the uprights for the win. The team had a 35:26 to 24:34 edge in time of possession, which was barely enough against a top offense. Tonight the team is going against arguably the best offense in the league, so expect the team to lean on the running game while the scoreboard allows.

Daniels actually led the way with 13 carries for 36 yards, while Brian Robinson Jr. had 10 totes for 16 yards and Austin Ekeler saw eight for 27 yards. The lead running backs were pretty even with their on-field presence, with Robinson holding a 51% to 47% snap share edge over Ekeler. This duo continued a mostly even split in the passing game, with Robinson getting five targets, catching four for 22 yards. Ekeler turned his four opportunities into three receptions and 26 yards.

Jeremy McNichols was on the field for 10 plays, getting one carry for a single yard. This is going to be a two-man show again tonight, with Ekeler getting a $2,000 discount on FanDuel and bringing $1,000 in savings on DraftKings. Let personal preference, salary constraints and projected popularity be your guide. This duo can be played together, though that approach is best left to those crafting 25 or more lineups.

Terry McLaurin dominated the targets on Sunday Night Football, with a 31.3% share. He ended up bringing in seven, for 89 yards, which tied Dyami Brown for the team lead. Brown and McLaurin each had a touchdown, with the former converting on all five of his opportunities. McLaurin had an excellent year, earning his second Pro Bowl nomination, along with Second-Team All-Pro accolades. He captured a career-high 13 touchdowns, with a fifth-straight season of over 1,000 receiving yards.

Olamide Zaccheaus had the second-highest snap share (68%) among the receivers, trailing McLaurin (78%), though besting Brown (62%). He works mostly out of the slot, having won the role after Noah Brown was injured and rookie Luke McCaffrey did nothing with his chances. Zaccheaus can also work outside, while McLaurin and Brown get slot routes on occasion.

Over the last six games of the year, Zaccheaus out-targeted Brown, 32 to 23, so either could easily have a strong performance tonight. McCaffrey (17 snaps), veteran Jamison Crowder (11) and NFL nomad Chris Moore (12) did appear on the field, though none had any offensive opportunities. Crowder is dinged up, but even if he is inactive, that does not move the needle for the other reserves.

Tight Ends | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Zach Ertz ranked second on the team with 91 targets, compiling 66 reception, 654 yards and seven touchdowns. He was brought in as a steady veteran presence for Daniels and to help mentor rookie Ben Sinnott. In a bit of a twist, Ertz easily outplayed the youngster and became a trusted target for Daniels. Though he was not a top-tier tight end, he did slide into the top-10 at the position. Not bad for a cagey veteran.

John Bates handles a fair amount of the blocking role, usually playing around half the the time. He had one target on Sunday, extending his streak of exactly one opportunity to six-consecutive games. Sinnott was on the field for seven plays, though his lone target over the last six games, was all the way back in Week 15.

Kicker | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Zane Gonzalez hero of the game, bouncing one in off the upright for the victory. He meandered through three franchises, before landing in Washington as the injury replacement for Austin Seibert. Gonzalez had been out of the league for a couple of years, mostly due to a lack of accuracy from beyond 45 yards.

Defense | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Washington collected 43 sacks this season, though the Commanders averaged around one takeaway per tilt. Detroit had 15 turnovers, which was the sixth-fewest in the league, while the Commies essentially had the same takeaway ratio.

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NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Lions Saturday Night Football Divisional Round: Jahmyr Gibbs

Thinking through the various likely scenarios, it is hard to see Monty in action over Gibbs. If Detroit is trailing, Gibbs is the better pass-catcher, if the Lions have a commanding lead, veteran Craig Reynolds is likely to get the touches. If the game is close, then things still favor Gibbs. Finally, should something happen to Gibbs, it would likely lead to the high-value touches going to Montgomery, though Reynolds would probably get a healthy portion of the action between the 20s, or the team could turn to the pass.

Currently Gibbs projects to be on around 50% of all tournament lineups, combining both the multiplier and flex spots. That is lower than it was in Week 18, though not dramatically. The Lions are nearly double-digit favorites at home and there is no need to push Montgomery, outside of a close game after losing Gibbs to an injury.

Tonight the Stokastic projections have Gibbs for 18.41 carries, 93.14 yards, along with 3.5 targets for 3.19 receptions, 27.1 yards and a 90% probability of reaching pay dirt. Montgomery checks in with 10.29 totes for 52.09 yards, accompanied by 2.2 targets for 2.11 catches and 16.9 yards, with a 50% likelihood of scoring a touchdown. For those wondering, Reynolds projects for just shy of two offensive touches, but we know his outcomes are heavily depending on the score and effectiveness of Monty.

Detroit Lions Positional Preview

Quarterback | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Over the last half of the season, Jared Goff tallied 20-plus fantasy points in five of eight games, with 37.58 and 44.06 being his two best performances. He is at home, in climate controlled Ford Field, where he has become a maestro at getting the most out of the passing attack. Detroit led the league with 33.2 points per game, well above the second place Buffalo Bills (30.9) and third place Baltimore Ravens (30.5). This is nearly six points more than what the Lions posted last year, which was good enough to rank fifth overall.

Goff had a personal-best 67.0 QBR and 113.6 passer rating. He finished third with 272.3 aerial yards per appearance and fourth with 37 passing scores, making his 12 interceptions quite palatable. Marshon Lattimore is clearly not the defensive maven he was in his heyday, but he was solid in the Wild Card round, after missing most of the season with hamstring issues.

It was good to see the Commanders hold Baker Mayfield to only 185 yards and tow touchdowns, but he also had only 18 attempts. It has been a while since Washington faced a “good” quarterback, with those honors going to Jackson, back in Week 6. Otherwise it has been a parade of inexperienced quarterbacks (Bryce Young, Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Trey Lance, Michael Pennix Jr., Caleb Williams) or retreads and ne’er do well signal-callers (Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton). Jalen Hurts was kept in check during Week 11 and he of course left early in Week 16 with a concussion.

Facing Goff and a full-complement of capable pass-catchers is likely to be a bit of a shock. It will be interesting to see how quickly the team is able to adjust.

Wide Receiver and Tight End | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished 10th in the league, with 141 targets, second with 115 catches and eighth with 74.3 yards per game. His 12 touchdowns were a personal best, trailing only McLaurin (13) and league leader Ja’Marr Chase (16), who of course took home the receiving triple crown. The nearly 28% target share on a prolific passing offense is sublime, plus St. Brown has excellent command of every route imaginable. He also earned Pro Bowl accolades for the third-consecutive season, and First-Team All-Pro honors for the second.

Jameson Williams reached the 1,000 yard milestone for the first time, playing in 15 games and starting 11 times. He was ninth overall, with 17 plays of at least 20-plus yards, accompanied by a solid seven scores. Among players who appeared in at least 15 games, Williams was third, with 17.3 yards per catch, ranking second on the Lions with 91 targets.

Kalif Raymond (foot) returned to action in Week 18, taking up his punt return duties, while seeing four offensive snaps and one target. The first-round bye should give him additional time to reacclimate to the offense after missing a month on the injured reserve. Something around a dozen snaps is likely and we know that Raymond is a potential gamebreaker. The Stokastic projections have him for at least one target, decent point per dollar upside on DraftKings ($1,200), though he is less appealing on FanDuel ($7,000).

Tim Patrick is the WR3 and he is likely to be on the field for around 60% of the offensive action. This is a crowded offense, and while Patrick projects for only two targets, he still has a 15% touchdown probability and is live to find the end zone from around 15 yards out, as the team is not afraid to make him a priority when the defense is focused on the other top talents.

Sam LaPorta was third on the team with 83 targets, seeing 39 over the last five games. The second-year tight end finished sixth at his position with 726 yards and seven touchdowns. LaPorta is an excellent fantasy point per dollar option on DraftKings, while also being a strong secondary play on FanDuel.

Kicker | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

For those of you who are regular readers of this article series, you know I love to talk about kickers. Rookie Jake Bates has a great story, which is more like an epic saga, for how he reached the NFL. So I am presenting it again:

“Bates has had a fun journey to the NFL. He played two seasons of college soccer for Central Arkansas prior to transferring to Texas State to play football. He spent two seasons there as a kickoff specialist prior to moving to Arkansas, where again he was relegated to kickoff duty only, though he was named to the All-SEC team. He had a quick two-week turn with the Texans, but they cut him cut halfway through training camp. Next up was the UFL, where Bates finally received his chance to officially kick field goals, setting a league record with a 64-yarder while also converting two others from 60-plus.”

He led the league with 64 point after touchdown conversions on 67 (95.8%) attempts. It helps playing for the most prolific offense in the league, but it needs to be noted that Bates also was successful on 26-of-29 (89.7%) field goal attempts, including 6-of-8 (75.0%) from beyond 50 yards and 7-of-8 (87.5%) between 40-and-49 yards.

Defense | Commanders-Lions NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round

Daniels was sacked 47 times in the regular season, which was the sixth-most in the league. Despite being sacked 18 times in the final four games, Tampa Bay only got to the rookie once on Sunday. Detroit is an active blitzing team, though part of that is to make up for so many key players being lost to injuries. The team ranked 23rd with only 37 sacks, though were in the top-third of the league with 24 takeaways. Washington averaged just over one turnover per game, though they are on the road, with a rookie quarterback in a pressure packed game that is even tougher than last week.

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Divisional Round: Rankings

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Prefer to see it in action? Watch as the Single-Lineup Simulator breaks down a Commanders-Lions DraftKings lineup for Divisional Round Saturday, providing actionable insights for Saturday Night Football. Ready to level up your DFS game? Choose from our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages and start optimizing your lineups today!

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders-Lions

1. Jahmyr Gibbs: Hard to grant this honor to anyone else, though the top-five are all deserving.
2. Jayden Daniels: What a season so far, will it extend for another week?!
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown: Even though he is going to have the attention of the defense, he is one of the most complete receivers in the league, as evidenced by the accolades.
4. Terry McLaurin: Everyone knows the ball will be going to him, yet the production continues.
5. Sam LaPorta: Salary is a thing and he presents a nice blend of floor and upside-potential, without breaking the bank.
6. Jared Goff: For a “game manager” he puts up some terrific stats. “Dome Field” advantage is key, plus his extensive postseason experience has him prepared for anything that Washington throws his way.
7. Jake Bates: Excellent point per dollar option.
8. Jameson Williams: DraftKings ($9,000) and FanDuel ($11,000) are each giving Williams a premium boost, which in turn is leading to lower tournament representation.
9. Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr.: More will lean towards Ekeler, which makes sense. Robinson has had more on-field time with Daniels. This is a coinflip, all things considered.
10. Zach Ertz: Needs a touchdown to be a difference maker, but it is definitely in the realm of possibility at +250-to-275 on most sportsbooks.

Secondary Options

1. Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown: Let personal preference be your guide, both have upside, though Zaccheaus is the “safer” play.
2. Zane Gonzalez: The successful doink will live on, even when he is replaced over the offseason.
3. David Montgomery: Per the analysis above, there does not seem to be any high probability path to DFS glory tonight, other than via touchdowns.
4. Detroit D/ST: Live for some sacks and home field advantage, plus Daniels while talented, is still a rookie.
5. Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond: Steady, though far from spectacular veteran in play on both sites, with Raymond only worthy of consideration on DraftKings.

Lottery Tickets

1. Craig Reynolds: More appealing on DraftKings ($2,400), his $7,500 tag on FanDuel is only supported by a touchdown, mop up duty or something befalling one of the lead backs.
2. Washington D/ST: Meh, but a scoop-and-score or pick-six can be rewarding.
3. Mike Williams and Van Jefferson: Close your eyes and pick one.
4. Luke McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder and Chris Moore: Latter is in play, only if Crowder is out. None of this trio moves the needle for those creating fewer than 50 lineups.
5. Brock Wright: Will be on the field, last Detroit player worthy of his own line.
6. Jeremy McNichols: This is a reach and unlikely, but not impossible.
7. Ben Sinnott, Allen Robinson II, Shane Zylstra, Sione Vaki, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Joe Theisman and Jon Kitna: Not a chance.

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