NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Steelers: Week 18 Saturday Night Football

Week 18 Saturday Night Football has the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) heading to Pittsburgh, in the hopes of knocking off the Steelers (10-6), while also getting help on Sunday to make the playoffs. This game has a 48.5 total, with the Stealers favored by just 1.5 at home. Let’s look at all the vantage points and find some winning NFL DFS lineups. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build optimal rosters for Saturday Night Football.

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NFL DFS Picks: Bengals-Steelers Saturday Night Football Week 18

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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Steelers Saturday Night Football Week 18: Trey McBride

Cincinnati has only beaten one team with a winning record this season and that was the Broncos last Saturday, 34-30 in overtime. Burrow is in the midst of an NFL record run of eight games with at least 250 passing yards and a trio of touchdowns. In this stretch he is averaging 331 passing yards, with 27 total touchdowns against just five interceptions. Even his 25 sacks seem manageable with that type of production.

Burrow also leads the league with a career-best 290.1 passing yards per game, accompanied by a stunning 42 touchdowns, against eight interceptions. Pittsburgh was one of the eight aforementioned teams and with the swagger of Burrow, there is no way he is nervous in the Steel City tonight.

Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview

Running Back | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Brown is a major question mark, having suffered a high ankle sprain in the fourth quarter. Khalil Herbert was the main running back in overtime and Brown has yet to practice this week. Even with the help of “modern medicine” there is no way to really know how Brown will perform if he suits up. Plus the Bengals have a history of being less than truthful with injuries over the last couple of seasons, which has cropped up on more than one primetime slate.

It is a shame that Brown is hurt, since he has seen one of the most absurd running back workloads in recent memory after Zack Moss was lost for the season. Herbert was brought over from the Chicago Bears for depth after the injury to Moss, but he has been on the field for only 42 snaps in seven games, with 18 occurring Saturday. The fourth-year back was adequate for the Bears, but he never had the featured role. He is a capable receiver and has a 4.8 yards per carry average, so he is a desirable option even if Brown “starts” this game.

Trayveon Williams logged all nine of his offensive plays this season, after Moss was injured, with his lone offensive snap last Saturday also being his only time stepping between the lines in the last five games.

If Brown is out, we will need to see who is active, so be sure to tune in to NFL Live Before Lock at 3 p.m. ET on the Stokastic YouTube channel.

Ja’Marr Chase leads the league with 100.8 receiving yards per game, while also being the frontrunner for the receiving Triple Crown with 117 receptions, 1,612 yards and 16 touchdowns. If his totals hold, he will become the fifth wideout since 1966 to manage this feat, joining Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith Sr. and Cooper Kupp. It will be interesting to see who draws the short straw between Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson, for the tall task of covering Chase.

It will help Chase and Burrow if Higgins (ankle/knee) is able to contribute. He is one of the key players who have crushed the hopes and dreams of DFS gamers, with the Bungles injury information being less than forthright. The fourth-year wideout has been a limited participant in practice all week, so we will need to wait for news on Saturday to know his status.

Andrei Iosivas has lucked into six touchdowns, on just 58 targets and 34 catches for 467 yards. That means no volume and not much in the way of yardage, turning him into a “decimal receiver” (h/t to Ben Rasa for coining the term “decimal back”). It really is a 2.5 man show, with enigmatic Jermaine Burton managing a scant 14 targets, four receptions and 107 yards. The third-round rookie out of Alabama has more in-season suspensions (one) than touchdowns (nada, zip, zilch, zero).

Tight End | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Mike Gesicki had himself a game last week, with 12 targets for 10 receptions and 86 yards. Do not expect him to fly under the radar for anyone as he is also the third leading pass-catcher on the team. Both of his touchdowns came all the way back in Week 9, against Las Vegas, but he is live for a score tonight. He has better production when Higgins is out, but considering the health of Brown and Pittsburgh allowing four scores to opposing tight ends over the last three games, the NFL nomad is a potential core play on DraftKings ($4,200) and FanDuel ($7,500).

Former University of Washington stalwart Drew Sample should be on the field for close to 70% of the snaps as a blocker, but he is unlikely to see more than two targets, but should get at least one look from Burrow. Cam Grandy will find his way on the field for around a dozen plays, and has a similar target projection to Sample, keeping him in play at the DraftKings $200 minimum salary for those crafting north of 20 lineups.

Kicker | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Cade York has had a nomadic NFL journey and he only has a spot with Cincinnati, after Evan McPherson landed on the injured reserve. York was a fourth-round selection by the Cleveland Browns in the 2022 NFL Draft, after kicking for the LSU Tigers. He lasted one season, losing the job to Dustin Hopkins in the following training camp. His next stops included time on the practice squads for Tennessee and the New York Giants before ending up back in Cleveland. This summer, the Browns then dealt him to Washington for a conditional seventh-round pick, but York was released after missing two field goals in the first game of the season. York is 11-of-19 (58%) from 40-plus yards, which is just not good enough for today’s NFL.

Defense | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Cincinnati ranks eighth with 24 takeaways, while Pittsburgh is ceding only one per game. The Bengals are averaging two sacks per tilt, collecting 13 in the last five game, including a pair of quarterback takedowns against the Steelers in Week 13. The run-heavy approach of coach Mike Tomlinson and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have the team suffering only one turnover each game on average.

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NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Steelers Saturday Night Football Week 18: Russell Wilson

In Week 12, Russell Wilson had an absurd 414 passing yards and a trio of tuddies in Cincinnati. In the four games since that masterpiece, he has averaged 177 passing yards, with five aerial scores and a pair of picks.

Getting George Pickens back after he had missed three games with a hamstring injury should have been a boost, but there were some interview issues when Pickens and Wilson were asked about the late-game miscue that saw Pickens potentially give up on a route and Wilson tossing a pick on the play after thinking he receiver would head up-field. Likely this was much ado about nothing when Pickens was a little salty in the presser, which can be understood after a tough loss.

Wilson had a retro game with six carries for 55 yards and a score, but that is not something that will come to fruition on Saturday night. If it gives the Bengals something extra to think about, great — but DFS gamers should not hold out hopes of a repeat effort. Unless of course the Ravens somehow lose as nearly 20 point favorites in the early game.

Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview

Running Back | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Depending on who you ask to read the tea leaves, it could either be Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren as the lead running back for the Steelers. Dusty Cordarrelle Patterson will surface for an opportunity or two, but this has been a two-headed kerfuffle otherwise this year. Yes, Warren has the slight edge over the last month, though we should not fool ourselves, as Harris is not that far behind.

Prior to the 17 game season, it actually took just 62.5 yards per game to reach the 1,000 milestone. The key to statistical glory was clearing that threshold for multiple seasons. A 17 game season actually lowers the mark to just shy of 59 yards per game, which further dilutes the achievement. That means Harris clearing 1,000 rushing yards for each of his four seasons is impressive from an availability standpoint, but looking at the numbers, he has gotten there are volume alone. He has not cleared 1,040 since his rookie campaign, when he had an even 1,200 on the ground, leading the league with 381 total offensive touches and earning his lone Pro Bowl ticket.

For his career, Harris has averaged 3.9 yards per tote, with 27 rushing touchdowns in 67 games. By comparison, Warren has averaged 4.9 yards per carry, with six scores. In an odd twist, those are the only six touchdowns of Warren’s career, meaning he has yet to catch a ball for a score.

Wide Receiver | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Even after missing a trio of tilts between Weeks 14 and 16, George Pickens has 30 more targets than anyone else on his team. Tonight the Stokastic projections have the third-year wideout earmarked for 6.7 targets, 4.58 receptions, 71.71 yards and nearly a 50% probability of reaching pay dirt. Calvin Austin III is the next man up with 3.6 targets for 2.55 receptions, 35.3 yards and a one-in-four chance of scoring. Though he works out of the slot, Austin can also get downfield and he is live for a long rainbow ball from Wilson.

The rest of the crowd projects for just over five targets, though good luck figuring out how things will be dispersed between Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, Scotty Miller and Ben Skowronek. That also would be the preferred order of preference for this motley crew.

Tight End | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Pat Freiermuth is second on the team with 67 targets and over the last five games he has seen 27 opportunities, including a season high eight last week. In this timeframe, Darnell Washington has been on the field for an average of 28.7 plays per game, compared to 49.2 for Freiermuth. Though Washington is a physically imposing marvel, he has only three targets in these five games, with his last redzone opportunity occurring in Week 2.

MyCole Pruitt and Connor Heyward will each see the field as Pittsburgh runs a fair amount of two-tight end sets. Heyward has seen one target in each of the last two games, however, those were also his only opportunities since Week 6. Pruitt is not much better, with six of his 10 targets on the season occurring in the last five weeks.

Kicker | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Shout out to Chris Boswell for earning his second Pro Bowl nomination this season. Currently he leads the league with 40 made field goals on 43 attempts. When considering that he plays in the AFC North, that is pretty impressive as his games in controlled climates are few and far between. Over the last four seasons, he has been in a class by himself, with an 85% conversion rate on 39 attempts from beyond 50 yards.

Defense | Bengals-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18

Blitzburgh has not had a lot of success this season, averaging just over two sacks per game, with 11 in the last five tilts. Of course going against Burrow should bolster their prospects as a fantasy factor and the Steelers did get to him for four sacks in Week 13. The team is tied for the league lead with 31 takeaways, including the top mark of 15 fumble recoveries.

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday Night Football Week 18: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cardinals-Rams

1. Ja’Marr Chase: Captain, My Captain!
2. Joe Burrow: Not much via the ground, but that is the only knock against him from a DFS perspective.
3. Russell Wilson: Will his coaches let him cook? That is the best way to go after the Bengals.
4. George Pickens: Volume and downfield opportunities.
5. Tee Higgins: Limited in practice, expected to play.
6. Chris Boswell: Stellar season, particularly as an AFC North kicker. Game time temperatures will start out well below freezing, with a light breeze in the 10 mph range.
7. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris: Let personal preference be your guide, they can be rostered together. Warren returns kickoffs with Patterson.
8. Chase Brown and Khalil Herbert: If Brown is active, what can we reasonably expect? DraftKings dropped the ball with Herbert getting a $6,200 savings, by comparison it is only $1,000 on FanDuel.
9. Mike Gesicki: Basically the third receiver.
10. Pittsburgh D/ST: The Terrible Towels will be out in force.

Secondary Options

1. Pat Freiermuth: Just misses out on the top-10, mostly due to the Steelers being at home, in the cold against a sack-prone quarterback.
2. Calvin Austin III: Only needs one broken play or busted coverage to hit big. Main punt returner.
3. Andrei Iosivas: Needs to get lucky with a fortuitous touchdown.

Lottery Tickets

1. Cade York: The Cade Fade is in effect.
2. Cincinnati D/ST: Wilson should be good for a handful of sacks and turnovers, but Bengals likely to lose fantasy ground for points allowed.
3. Trayveon Williams: Only if Brown is inactive or we suspect that he is dramatically limited. Likely to return kickoffs over Burton.
4. Mike Williams: No redzone targets from Wilson is a little odd, averaging around 20 snaps in his eight games with a high of 31 last Saturday.
5. Van Jefferson: On the field a lot, mostly invisible to his quarterback.
6. Cordarrelle Patterson: Can’t wait to see him somehow break the slate for his former coach/current offensive coordinator. Returns kickoffs along with Warren.
7. Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson and Cam Grandy: Each is live for a target, though this trio has a projection of 2.9 combined looks.
8. Scotty Miller, MyCole Pruitt, Connor Heyward and Darnell Washington: Each is live for a target, though this quartet has a projection of 2.6 combined looks.
9. Charlie Jones, Isaiah Williams, Kendall Milton, Isaiah Williams, Charlie Jones, Jermaine Burton, Tanner McLauchlan, Ben Skowronek, Terry Bradshaw and Chris Collinsworth: Better luck next week!

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